Cheltenham Entries - Weeding out the value

ste2010

Disregarding the risks of antepost..
Im starting this thread with an aim to removing the faff entries in some of the races to see if we can get a few horses who will definitely run at a nice price in the various different races...
For example
Aupcharile is currently 10-1 with some bookmakers in jewson. Given what we know captain Conan is more than likely heading for the arkle as is Osar Wells unless JH has a Donald McCain moment and sends him to the Jewson (which IMO should be his target). Dynaste looks RSA bound...Arvika arkle bound.
Back in focus (if its not to good) and Boston bob looks like there RSA bound
So what were left with is the probable favourite of aupcharlie come march at a price of 10-1 and others behind him in the market at even juicier prices..court in motion, tap night 16's etc and above..

I'd be interested in what other people see as valuable prices now in comparison come race day. Can be any race...I suggest we omit the champion hurdle and gold cup though as they are pretty obvious who the contenders are

Johner

Captain Conan will go for the Jewson, as will Oscars Well I'd imagine.

RichieLawlor

Only one of Back in Focus and Boston Bob will be running in the RSA.

Interesting that BB is entered in the Irish Arkle

jimjamcos

If there's one antepost market which I really think could cut up it's the World Hurdle. Below I've highlighted some of the principles with real doubts over their participation..I'm gonna assume the ground's closer to good than soft by the time the World Hurdle comes around (I know I know a dangerous assumption given many peoples forecasts) but you'd have to think it'll work out that way.

Quevega 9/2: Will go for Mares Hurdle if Willie can be trusted at all.

Oscar Whisky 5/1: If soft festival may go CH according to Nicky & Barry. Undoubted class but still questions over staying ability.

Peddlers Cross 8/1: Hasn't been seen yet and looks likely to start over 2 miles. McCain says he's unsure which festival race he will run in but gotta be WH if any.

Monksland 8/1: Should go. Carberry said he will be better for better ground.

Tidal Bay 8/1: If soft festival, surely Gold Cup bound for connections. If not, this..

Grand Crus 10/1: God only knows what race this enigma will end up in!

Reve De Sivola 10/1: Trainer says he needs soft ground. Whether that is just his safety first approach after injury who knows. Should take his chance.

Voler la Vedette 12/1: After last years fine run should avoid Quevega again and go for this.

Thousand Stars 12/1: Mullins says they left their Aintree race at Cheltenham last year after WH. With Aintree & French CH the main targets, no chance he'll turn up and be wasted here in my opinion. Zaidpour will take his chance for Mullins.

Get Me Out Of Here 12/1: Will probably run. Step up in trip should suit.

Bog Warrior 12/1: Pointless trying to 2nd guess Martin but a class horse who in my opinion will only run if going's soft.


Verdict: VLV & Tidal Bay

I'm willing to take a chance on VLV, with her mares allowance, considering she hasn't got her good ground this year yet (was travelling well last time until finding little) and if shrewd operator Colm Murphy can get her right she could repeat last years effort.

Ruby wants Tidal Bay in this race. If ground's anything but soft, he'll get his way and slow pace of race will suit the strong stayer.

UrbanSea

Am I correct in thinking China Rock didn't get an entry in the Ryanair? Would really, really like to see him go for it.

ste2010

Johner wrote: »

Captain Conan will go for the Jewson, as will Oscars Well I'd imagine.

Oscars well
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/1231/1224328279507.html

Haven't seen anything on captain Conan but I'm sure if Nicky gets his way that's where e'll be going alright

ste2010

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Only one of Back in Focus and Boston Bob will be running in the RSA.

Interesting that BB is entered in the Irish Arkle

Maybe he's considering the jewson for him also..his performance over fences at 3 wasn't the most spectacular this year. I cant see him being quick enough for 2 at all..Mullins reckons back in focus is a pure 3miler on soft. I can imagine he has a major headache trying to place his chasers this year in chelt. Arvika who doesn't look like he'll be good enough for 2, aupcharlie 2.5 is the distance, back in focus 3, Boston bob 3, you wonder is that one if the reasons champagne fever find go over fences as planned

Slattsy

Back in Focus to go for the 4 miler. Out and out stayer.
Boston Bob RSA bound for sure.

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

Monksland 8/1: Should go. Carberry said he will be better for better ground.

Tidal Bay 8/1: If soft festival, surely Gold Cup bound for connections.

Get Me Out Of Here 12/1: Will probably run. Step up in trip should suit
.

I like these 3. Monskland is seriously underrated. He's 6 and has a big future in my opinion. There is so much room for him to come in this year. Everyone is talking about simonsig slaughtering monksland in the Neptune..have a look at the race again..cotton mills fall destroyed any chance he had just when he was getting going. He is a better horse on better ground they said the same last year

Get me out of here should like the step up but I think if TB goes he wins...no questions..the price on offer for TB is quiet generous. I think get me out of here's price is about right and monksland might shorten a little. Hard to know

VLV on the other hand..I think she's gone..I don't think she's the same horse anymore. She's had 3 races since the world hurdle last year and is a shade of what she was in the past. Soft never inconvenienced her before so I wouldn't buy the ground not suiting

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

I like these 3. Monskland is seriously underrated. He's 6 and has a big future in my opinion. There is so much room for him to come in this year. Everyone is talking about simonsig slaughtering monksland in the Neptune..have a look at the race again..cotton mills fall destroyed any chance he had just when he was getting going. He is a better horse on better ground they said the same last year

Get me out of here should like the step up but I think if TB goes he wins...no questions..the price on offer for TB is quiet generous. I think get me out of here's price is about right and monksland might shorten a little. Hard to know

VLV on the other hand..I think she's gone..I don't think she's the same horse anymore. She's had 3 races since the world hurdle last year and is a shade of what she was in the past. Soft never inconvenienced her before so I wouldn't buy the ground not suiting

I agree!... If I knew Tidal Bay was going to run in morning I'd be all in...no one will out-stay him that's for sure!! I understand how my trust in VLV may seem stupid. Is she not a good ground horse or am I being stupid again?

ste2010

jimjamcos wrote: »

I agree!... If I knew Tidal Bay was going to run in morning I'd be all in...no one will out-stay him that's for sure!! I understand how my trust in VLV may seem stupid. Is she not a good ground horse or am I being stupid again?

I wouldn't say stupid at all. visually her run in Cheltenham over 3m was her most impressive run. However on the run in to the world hurdle last year she had won every race bar one in the season on soft and soft/hvy. The one she lost was because she was victim to clever tactics aboard zaidpour..her profile was alot different gojng into the race last year. The good ground and the track in march over 3 may play to her strengths but if her form is anything to by this year she is on the decline or else zaidpour is on the upgrade..given zaidpour is only a 7year there is a possibility he has come on from last year but ich don't chink so

premierstone

I think its quite simple folks, and like a few before Big Bucks has simply broken the mare.

ste2010

premierstone wrote: »

I think its quite simple folks, and like a few before Big Bucks has simply broken the mare.

I was thinking that myself but didn't want to jump the gun..

klairondavis

I wouldn't read too much into Boston Bob's entry in the Irish Arkle. Cooldine ran in the two mile novice chase on Stephen's Day before winning the Sun Alliance at Cheltenham. Mullins likes running a stayer over a bit shorter as a prep to sharpen up their jumping. Sir Des Champs held entries in all the good two mile novices last year too.

Boston Bob is nailed on to line up in the Sun Alliance. I doubt Back In Focus will travel unless there is a significant ease in the ground.

SRFC

VLV is finished the mare has regressed I think writing was on the wall on the first run of the season its another case of a horse big bucks has smashed not being the same horse after he broke its heart like many others,


Bog Warrior I dont like for the world hurlde either he's won a bad handicap and a race against solwhit who had'nt ran in two years an the rest were in the race didnt go on the ground the likes of simenon hates a bog so that form isnt up to much imo.


Oscar whiskey isnt at his best over 3 mile excuse's last year from the stable but I think he's a 2 1/2 mile horse who could go straight to Aintree,



Peddlars cross would interest me at 10/1 if he comes back to his best would have a right shout or rite of passage but he's not certain to run.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

VLV is finished the mare has regressed I think writing was on the wall on the first run of the season its another case of a horse big bucks has smashed not being the same horse after he broke its heart like many others,


Bog Warrior I dont like for the world hurlde either he's won a bad handicap and a race against solwhit who had'nt ran in two years an the rest were in the race didnt go on the ground the likes of simenon hates a bog so that form isnt up to much imo.


Oscar whiskey isnt at his best over 3 mile excuse's last year from the stable but I think he's a 2 1/2 mile horse who could go straight to Aintree,



Peddlars cross would interest me at 10/1 if he comes back to his best would have a right shout or rite of passage but he's not certain to run.

Anything with tony martins name beside it I avoid like the plague..one of the most inconsistent trainer over ever come across.

I was looking at the expect CH field this evening . There will be a result that dilutes the trend this year. Only 1 7 year old raya star which is the most popular age for a winner. 3 5 year olds CWF, hisaabaat and grummeti. 1 9 year old Hurricane fly (only 1 9 year old has won it I think the last 50 odd years...then the 6 year olds..we all
Know who they are...

It's very hard to read the form this year given all the heavy ground it would be no surprise if we seen a long odds winner when you look at the trends.

Personally I think they should try peddlers over 2m again , he was a gallant 2nd to HF in 2010 and there's no harm
In giving him another shot!

SRFC

Think on Hurricane fly and the stat's against them my view is these statistic's are there to be broken he's the best around for the past 2 or 3 years looking at his record is unreal only beaten twice in the past 15 starts or something mostly in grade one only defeat came when sick against solwhit and in the champion last year when he ran below form and was plenty far back also he wasnt right last year according to Mullins,

The more I look at him the more I fancy him for this.

klairondavis

Peddlers Cross is gone at the game IMO.

rossom

Only the one antepost bet I've had so far is Kashmir Peak at 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after his hurdling debut. Still 16/1 available which I think is still a very good price.

kiers47

Oliver Sherwood said Puffin Billy's most likely target is the Neptune. Quite an open market at the moment. Took some of the 11 on Betfair if he lines up will surely be in the region of 6/7.

2 of Willie/Ricci horses close to the top in Champagne Fever and Pont Alexandre. Surely only 1 if either will go for this and tbh at the prices of 9 and 13 i couldnt have either

Rule The World: 12 - Was fairly impressive the other day relished the ground. Have my doubts he will be as affective on the supposed better ground in March
Taquin Du Seuil: 10.5 - Another who seems to like the extreme ground. The G1 Challow was run at an absolute dawddle from what i can remember it was set up for him and McCoy to come off the slow pace.
The New One: 15 - This would be my pick if Billy doesnt go Impressive winner last twice including a course win. Only defeat came in Champion Bumper which i wouldnt even count tbh. Looks a nice horse and will be a nice prospect next year chasing.
Melodic Rendevous: 30 - is surely a Supreme horse.
There are a load more in behind between 20-50 on betfair who are either going elsewhere or just arent good enough.

Puffin Billy is my Ante Post Nap at this stage

Also anybody know anything about Moscow Mannon and if he is festival bound and what race he would be going for. By the betting it would look like they are looking at this but i cant seem to find any info what so ever. Would like to see him go for the Supreme though.

rossom

With regards Moscow Mannon, after his hurdling debut his trainer said

"He'll probably go for the Slaney Hurdle (over two-and-a-half miles) at Naas (January 6th). We'll step him up a bit and that's the idea at the minute.

Seems like he's definitely more likely to go for the Neptune

premierstone

SRFC wrote: »

Think on Hurricane fly and the stat's against them my view is these statistic's are there to be broken he's the best around for the past 2 or 3 years looking at his record is unreal only beaten twice in the past 15 starts or something mostly in grade one only defeat came when sick against solwhit and in the champion last year when he ran below form and was plenty far back also he wasnt right last year according to Mullins,

The more I look at him the more I fancy him for this.

Couldn't agree more, the horse is reasonably lightly raced for a 9 Y/O, has already broken a trend in that Montjeus weren't supposed to win it and as you said has only been beaten twice, once in a bog by Solwhit and last years Champion where apart from the well being of the horse personally I feel he was given a particularly poor ride.

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

Only the one antepost bet I've had so far is Kashmir Peak at 33/1 for the Triumph Hurdle after his hurdling debut. Still 16/1 available which I think is still a very good price.

Kashmir peak has done pretty much what far west has done with the exception of handazan thrown in! Both have Beaten the life out of vasco du ronceray yet KP is double the price. Any stats on the same trainer winning the triumph 2 years in a row? They are really churning out some nice types out quinns yard these days

droidman123

reve de sivola for me in wh. couldnt of been more impressive in the long walk hurdle. wasnt a great field but he destroyed them following up his 2nd to big bucks. this horse seems to have found a new lease of life since being switched back to hurdles. he probably wants it soft but has a couple of wins in good ground. 10/1 will do for me.

SRFC

Diakali is the mullins number one horse dont be fooled by blood cotil.

kiers47

SRFC wrote: »

Diakali is the mullins number one horse dont be fooled by blood cotil.

For the triumph is it? Where do you get your info?
I wouldn't say it was much of a race diakali won in the $hit in gowran last time with a fairly slow time. I am presuming it is all speculation? Blood Cotil looks decent I really like Our Conor to go close if he goes for the triumph. Dessie is shrewd enough when he has a good one and he seems to like this one a lot!!!

SRFC

kiers47 wrote: »

For the triumph is it? Where do you get your info?
I wouldn't say it was much of a race diakali won in the $hit in gowran last time with a fairly slow time. I am presuming it is all speculation? Blood Cotil looks decent I really like Our Conor to go close if he goes for the triumph. Dessie is shrewd enough when he has a good one and he seems to like this one a lot!!!

I know one of the stable jockey's and have visited the yard a few months ago and Diakali is the better of the 2,I dont back juveniles or bet in the triumph but ive got him backed for Cheltenhem,I wouldnt be mad about our conor a lot of people fancy it but it wont be good enough in cheltenhem not sure about the ground for it either is it not a soft ground horse.


Pont Alexandre is the best novice in the yard and will take some beating in the Albert Bartlett.

premierstone

SRFC wrote: »

Pont Alexandre is the best novice in the yard and will take some beating in the Albert Bartlett.

Is there any bookie offering a price on him to 'win any race at the festival' because trying to second guess where Mullins sends them is a nightmare, agree he certainly looks the top novice he has.

SRFC

premierstone wrote: »

Is there any bookie offering a price on him to 'win any race at the festival' because trying to second guess where Mullins sends them is a nightmare, agree he certainly looks the top novice he has.

I Havent seen the market I think bet 365 do them sort of bets,I'll do my best to find out which race for definite they are planning on but with champagne flopping plans could change for him at the moment I think its un atout for the supreme maybe pique sous aswell and then its which ever they choose for Champagne fever and PA for the AB and neptune,

kiers47

SRFC wrote: »

I know one of the stable jockey's and have visited the yard a few months ago and Diakali is the better of the 2,I dont back juveniles or bet in the triumph but ive got him backed for Cheltenhem,I wouldnt be mad about our conor a lot of people fancy it but it wont be good enough in cheltenhem not sure about the ground for it either is it not a soft ground horse.


Pont Alexandre is the best novice in the yard and will take some beating in the Albert Bartlett.

Fair enough. I'm not sure I'd be rushing to back any of our novice hurdlers either really. The most of them look average compared to recent years!

I was tempted by Our Conor but there is no way I am backing him ante post at 16.5!!

What price did you get on diakali if you don't mind me asking?

SRFC

Happy with the 25/1 on diakali into 8/1 in places this will be winning the triumph.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

Happy with the 25/1 on diakali into 8/1 in places this will be winning the triumph.

I hope so and thanks for the info..I did a double with him and sizing Europe for the Ryanair...
Not to flatten your comments in any way as i hope he wins too. 25 4 year olds all going hell for leather in front of a crowd of 50.000 people milling up a hill is alot different from winning races easily in a field of 4 horses in Gowran park an punchestown...

SRFC

ste2010 wrote: »

I hope so and thanks for the info..I did a double with him and sizing Europe for the Ryanair...
Not to flatten your comments in any way as i hope he wins too. 25 4 year olds all going hell for leather in front of a crowd of 50.000 people milling up a hill is alot different from winning races easily in a field of 4 horses in Gowran park an punchestown...

World of difference alright has to get there fit and well aswell but couldnt be happier with the horse think he's a bit special didnt settle at all today still won pulling a cart from a horse who won the most competitive juvenile maiden hurdle of the season and was well fancied to win today.

ste2010

SRFC wrote: »

World of difference alright has to get there fit and well aswell but couldnt be happier with the horse think he's a bit special didnt settle at all today still won pulling a cart from a horse who won the most competitive juvenile maiden hurdle of the season and was well fancied to win today.

I'll be sick as a dog if sizing Europe doesn't go to chelt and diakali wins...I've before changed an accumulator with bet365 mid bet when I selected the wrong horse and they kindly changed it for me...I wonder if they would oblige if I got wind Sizing wasn't going to go ....the downfalls of antepost I guess!

eoghan_85

Has anyone here heard any soundings from the de Bromhead yard that Sizing Euro is likely to go for the Ryanair? To be honest I would have assumed that he'd still make an attempt to regain the Champ chase after being very hard done by last year, even if the race has completely changed dynamic with Sprinter S running this year.

SRFC

ste2010 wrote: »

I'll be sick as a dog if sizing Europe doesn't go to chelt and diakali wins...I've before changed an accumulator with bet365 mid bet when I selected the wrong horse and they kindly changed it for me...I wonder if they would oblige if I got wind Sizing wasn't going to go ....the downfalls of antepost I guess!

Ah sure thats ante post punting I dont do much of it especially not favourites and horses with different possible targets Hurricane fly was a sore one a few years ago and Mikeal D'haguneot cost me a few quid ante-post,couldnt put you off having a few quid on faugheen for the bumper if they get him out over the next few weeks he will go off short 25/1 at the min,another nice horse of willie's has yet to run aswell they think a lot of is SHAMSIKHAN might be keeping him for punchestown.

ste2010

eoghan_85 wrote: »

Has anyone here heard any soundings from the de Bromhead yard that Sizing Euro is likely to go for the Ryanair? To be honest I would have assumed that he'd still make an attempt to regain the Champ chase after being very hard done by last year, even if the race has completely changed dynamic with Sprinter S running this year.

I'm hoping he'd prefer to retire him with a Ryanair, an arkle and a champion chase as opposed to an arkle a champion chase and 2 seconds.

jimjamcos

ste2010 wrote: »

I'm hoping he'd prefer to retire him with a Ryanair, an arkle and a champion chase as opposed to an arkle a champion chase and 2 seconds.

De Bromhead has said he thinks Sizing probably needs further than 2m these days. I think you're right and that De Bromhead will be a realist (given his horse was close to on a par with Finians Rainbow last year who Henderson wouldn't put in a race with SS if he got a mile headstart by the looks of it) and avoid the beast! Can only see Casey, the mad heure, lining Flemenstar up with Sprinter Sacre.

Although I'd fancy Sizing for Ryanair given his fine course record, if Cue Card and Finians lineup it'll be a real race!

UrbanSea

I'd be very surprised if Sizing Europe went for the Champion Chase. De Bromhead strikes me as the type who'd shy away from the challenge.

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if Sizing Europe went for the Champion Chase. De Bromhead strikes me as the type who'd shy away from the challenge.

Think there was a quote about him "maybe needing 2.5m these days" after Gowran

IMO he's too long in the tooth to beat SS over 2m but would have a great shout in the Ryanair

UrbanSea

This year's Ryanair could prove to be very strong. Going to back China Rock on Monday at 33/1

UrbanSea

Anyone know is the RSA the plan for Rocky Creek

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Anyone know is the RSA the plan for Rocky Creek

Jacob believes the winner could be a factor in the RSA given the right underfoot conditions.

He said: "I had the favourite covered and just wanted him to give me a lead into the straight before pressing on. He's a horse for the future and will be a truly super chaser in time. He's a possible Cheltenham horse for sure providing the ground there isn't too quick."

droidman123

UrbanSea wrote: »

Anyone know is the RSA the plan for Rocky Creek

third fav in the paddy power betting for the rsa