Will there be economic recovery by the end of the year?

franktheplank

Saw a headline on the newspaper this morning, that the tanaiste predicts economic recovery by the end of the year.

Now, I'm gonna nail my colours to the mast here and question, are people really dumb enough to believe this horse twaddle?

Our economy is fooked, we have an unprecedented amount of public and private debt and even if there is an upturn in the global economy, in say the next five to ten years, any benefit we'll see will be marginal. (Coz of all the debt we're left with).

Rather than make the tough calls that should have been made this government has merely bowed down to the same powerful interest groups the previous government did.

To add to this disaster they now want to further insult our intelligence with these blatant lies, in the hope we'll swallow them and allow them to continue to stamp all over our futures, in favour of them and their powerful cronies.

All this from a "labour" party that's about as left wing as Ronald Reagan's right bollock.

My question to you AH, do you believe this BS?

seven_eleven

The worst is yet to come.

Daith

I'm sure it's linked to the clearly unbiased report today that house prices are stabilizing. Obviously we know our economy will be fine when people once again queue overnight to buy a shoebox.

Lollipops23

I've heard the property market is "bottoming out" a dozen times now.


I think we're doing ok, but the recovery is a long way off.


To be honest this is the new normal for a lot of us- it's been 5 years now, my whole post-college working life.

Ghandee

I got 3 numbers And a lucky star on last night's euro millions, so I'm alright anyway!

JupiterKid

There might - at best - be a sort of stabilisation in the economy - but with a mortgage arrears crisis looming I can't see how anyone can think Ireland is on the cusp of an economic recovery unless they are on very powerful perception altering substances.*




*or a politician - or both.

Doom

Any recovery will be killed off by the budget and general increases

Lollipops23

Lollipops23 wrote: »

I've heard the property market is "bottoming out" a dozen times now.


I think we're doing ok, but the recovery is a long way off.


To be honest this is the new normal for a lot of us- it's been 5 years now, my whole post-college working life.

The bloody housing market's hit bottom more times than the headmaster's cane at this point!

Prices will continue to fall relative to earnings for some time to come.

crockholm

Death,destruction,poverty and sodomy for all

b.harte

I'm saying a big NO to this, but I would like to be proven wrong.
I think there is a growing body of discontent with the current (ongoing) state of the country.
My own belief, based on what I have seen, and spoken to a few friends about, is that the big spend -that surge in consumer confidence, has largely been financed by either short term borrowings (overdrafts or minimal credit card use) or long term savings (Christmas clubs, modest credit union savings etc.).
From those I've spoken to there isn't a positive feeling for the coming year.
Many of those in work (myself included) are being squeezed by direct and indirect taxes, general increases in the cost of living, and employers trying to enact "efficiencies", all of these are adding up, and I'm personally starting my new year in a worse position, financially and mentally, than I started last year.
The hyperbole about the budget being less harsh than expected is also grating.
I have little left at the end of every month, I have to balance the financial obligations I have against the obligations I have to my family.
Which is why I missed a mortgage payment so I could put heating oil in my tank and food on the table, I can deal with the bank later.
Granted I could manage my budget a bit better but when it came to the choice between heat and food over a mortgage payment It was a no brainer.
I acknowledge that there are risks to my property if I forego additional payments, but at this point the prospect of empty cupboards and no heat water is more grim.
I find myself constantly questioning why I bother going to work, when I look at my take home pay, deduct the fuel costs and food costs for work I find that I have only about 200 more every month than what we (my family, wife two kids) would receive by way of social protections etc.
So, for the princely amount of 50 a week I get the luxury of working weekend days and nights, and miss my kids growing up while I'm oiling the gears of the economy.
So, I might be a bit pessimistic at the minutes, but no economic recovery, at least in my house.

TLDR version:
No recovery,
Country's broke,
Why work?

Doom

Doom wrote: »

Any recovery will be killed off by the budget and general increases

It's all smoke & mirrors, any recovery is just a mirage. It would make more sense to learn to accept that things are approaching the "new Normal", a time of near zero growth with high fuel & food prices plus cheap third world labour pulling down wages.

Economic recovery has already begun. Most of our debt is borrowings that kept the country afloat in the last few years. You mention personal debt like its the governments problem...so tell us frank, how many houses do you own?

franktheplank

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

Economic recovery has already begun. Most of our debt is borrowings that kept the country afloat in the last few years.

Funny that I'm not seeing much economic recovery round my way.

I would have thought the borrowing really only benefited certain privileged sectors, namely highly paid public servents, bankers, property investors. But I guess we know which side of the fence you're sitting on?

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

You mention personal debt like its the governments problem...so tell us frank, how many houses do you own?

I don't own any houses as it happens. I don't know why you would have thought that?

I still think it's an economic problem, the more debts people have the less likely they are to spend or invest, fairly basis really?

I'd still only be in favour of debt relief in genuine circumstances(which isn't happening). The rest of us just have to pay our debt (or not) and get on with it, unless you're part of the privileged groups that are still supported through reckless borrowing on the strength of the few sectors of the economy that are functioning well.

SEPT 23 1989

Nein

franktheplank

Deleted User wrote: »

The bloody housing market's hit bottom more times than the headmaster's cane at this point!

Prices will continue to fall relative to earnings for some time to come.

I think one of the big factor's in the housing market that a lot of people don't consider is our rent allowance system.

We have a massive oversupply of houses in the market, many of which are now publicly owned. Instead of opening up these houses and saving the country a fortune in borrowing and taxes being spent on rent-allowance, we are continuing to support a rent payment system just because it allows those who invested in rental property to pay their private borrowings.

It also adds greatly to the cost of living for those renting as they have to pay inflated rent costs, which in turn has a knock on effect on wages and investment.

I think the property market still hasn't hit a true rock-bottom because of this state-supported guaranteed rental income. All of which is funded by borrowing on our futures.

Bejubby

they said that **** to make people think that all the cuts and stuff have paid off,to try and calm people down a bit, and then there gonna stick the knife in further and twist it around,then they'll say the same **** again.

can you not see the pattern every time?

bluecode

I agree with b.hartes assessment and I like his style in missing a mortgage payment so he can have heat and food. I too will be using that tactic in due course. In fact and in reality there are many people where it's not simply a choice. Every single month there are more and more people who simply cannot afford the mortgage payments anymore.

This is the ticking time bomb. Which isn't being helped by the government's so called solutions. Property tax being one. If there ever was an example of pouring petrol on a raging fire then that's it.

It doesn't matter now for the smug amongst you who smirk and say it's their own fault. It doesn't matter whose fault it is. It matters how the problem is solved.

franktheplank

bluecode wrote: »

It doesn't matter now for the smug amongst you who smirk and say it's their own fault. It doesn't matter whose fault it is. It matters how the problem is solved.

I have the utmost sympathy for people who just bought a normal house to live in and got screwed in the property bubble.

As I see it there are three groups looking for bailouts. The banks, the investors and ordinary folk. Of course we're bailing out the banks and the investors while doing nothing but pile more debt on the others. It's a horrible situation and continues to be the biggest swindle of all time.

So you are looking for a private property bailout. Hmmm. The recovery shall continue regardless, despite the continued presence of the small number, relatively speaking, who are in massive negative equity and are unemployed or underemployed.

If you are in negative equity but earning similar or larger amounts to what you were earning a few years ago, what exactly do you expect to happen? Free house?

franktheplank

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

So you are looking for a private property bailout. Hmmm. The recovery shall continue regardless, despite the continued presence of the small number, relatively speaking, who are in massive negative equity and are unemployed or underemployed.

If you are in negative equity but earning similar or larger amounts to what you were earning a few years ago, what exactly do you expect to happen? Free house?

Sorry yes I should clarify, of course this should only apply to people struggling to meet the cost of mortgage payments. I would have thought that would be quite common sense but hey seems you might be looking for a scapegoat?

So do you still think the economic recovery is happening right now? Can I ask, do you think the government has taken the correct actions, or is this just down to natural economic factors?

Also, who do you think was responsible for the economic crash? And what sector of the economy do you work in?

Biggins

No.

b.harte wrote: »

...My own belief, based on what I have seen, and spoken to a few friends about, is that the big spend -that surge in consumer confidence, has largely been financed by either short term borrowings (overdrafts or minimal credit card use) or long term savings (Christmas clubs, modest credit union savings etc.).

Partly that above and partly because of the money taken away by the FG/Labour government while also imposing further other bills in the many hundreds of Euro.
They have created further debt which will hit many later in the year, big time.

gnfnrhead

Nope. Easily another five years before we start to get anywhere. And thats assuming they dont fcuk it up even more in the meantime.

Gurgle

1.5% Growth in 2011
0.9% Growth in 2012
Guesses for 2013 seem to average out at ~0.5% to 1% growth.

The worst austerity budgets are done
The bailout process is done

I don't think its going to get worse.
Recovery? dunno.

What qualifies as a 'recovery' anyway?

flutered

franktheplank wrote: »

Saw a headline on the newspaper this morning, that the tanaiste predicts economic recovery by the end of the year.

Now, I'm gonna nail my colours to the mast here and question, are people really dumb enough to believe this horse twaddle?

Our economy is fooked, we have an unprecedented amount of public and private debt and even if there is an upturn in the global economy, in say the next five to ten years, any benefit we'll see will be marginal. (Coz of all the debt we're left with).

Rather than make the tough calls that should have been made this government has merely bowed down to the same powerful interest groups the previous government did.

To add to this disaster they now want to further insult our intelligence with these blatant lies, in the hope we'll swallow them and allow them to continue to stamp all over our futures, in favour of them and their powerful cronies.

All this from a "labour" party that's about as left wing as Ronald Reagan's right bollock.

My question to you AH, do you believe this BS?

yeah and santy too

Cheerful Spring

Well on the jobs front i think we will see improvement there, but the country still is unable to finance itself correctly and our national debt is three times as much as it was in 2008

So there is no doubt about it our economy is going to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future. World events could make it better or worse for us, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. But i expect another harsh budget next year it not over yet.

statesaver

No, a second bailout more like

franktheplank

Gurgle wrote: »

1.5% Growth in 2011
0.9% Growth in 2012
Guesses for 2013 seem to average out at ~0.5% to 1% growth.

Which is great, except what % of our GDP are we borrowing every year?

We probably need about 10% growth to meet current spending levels alone!

And that's before we start to look at the debt situation.:(

flutered

the last five or six budgets have had the effect of removing a company similar to intal from most countys in ireland, whatever cash is around is being hoovered up by the goverment, to keep cutting incomes, then to expect increased revenue, well, it just do not make any sense to me anyway, i dunno about you folks around here.

Potatoeman

I voted Atari Jaguar recovery then realised most people won't know what that is.

Pilotdude5

They might spin some figures and results to make it look good but I voted no. We have built enough houses and the motorway network is in place. We cant really have another building boom. The next two decades will be stagnant at best.

b.harte

bluecode wrote: »

I agree with b.hartes assessment and I like his style in missing a mortgage payment so he can have heat and food. I too will be using that tactic in due course.

I'm not sure if that is a good idea, or let alone would I call it a tactic. My mortgage payment was due, I needed to stock the cupboards and get a (small) fill of oil, I also needed to put diesel in the car. I purposely took cash from my current account to pay for the above.
When the direct debit for my mortgage was presented there wasn't enough in the account to cover it so it was refused.
For refusing to pay it my bank (BOI) charge me 12.70 (for not paying something), my mortgage bank (Ulster Bank) will send me a nasty letter and might phone me, they will also apply a penalty to my "late payment" in the form of interest until it's "resolved". So while the short term saw us eat and warm the long term is the cost of my payment has increased instantly.
And it's ongoing, these additional charges will roll onto my monthly outgoings, leaving me with even less this month (on an already tight budget), and increase my own risk that I may have to juggle payments around a bit later on.
I'm also considering cancelling every direct debit I have so I have some control over my finances, I can decide who gets what and when they get it.

galwayrush

We will have less disposable income this year with all the new stealth taxes, esp in motoring costs, so less spending power means less recovery possible.

Biggins

galwayrush wrote: »

We will have less disposable income this year with all the new stealth taxes, esp in motoring costs, so less spending power means less recovery possible.

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/raft-of-new-charges-to-cost-households-1000-this-year-3340257.html

A RAFT of new levies and charges enforced from this week are set to cost households up to €1,000 each over the full year.

twinytwo

Daith wrote: »

I'm sure it's linked to the clearly unbiased report today that house prices are stabilizing. Obviously we know our economy will be fine when people once again queue overnight to buy a shoebox.

Its not, they were singing and dancing about an increase in sales etc in december... this is solely because its the end of the first times buyer tax rebate thingy

dd972

no

thread closed /

sfwcork

Rojomcdojo wrote: »

Economic recovery has already begun. Most of our debt is borrowings that kept the country afloat in the last few years. You mention personal debt like its the governments problem...so tell us frank, how many houses do you own?

Hey enda.I didnt know you were on boards

corktina

long-established businesses near me are still crashing and burning...i don't think we can even see the corner on the horizon yet, never mind think of turning it.

LivelineDipso

You need production and capital investment to fuel an economic recovery.

All Ireland has is civil servants and eh, that's it.

markbld65

b.harte wrote: »

I'm saying a big NO to this, but I would like to be proven wrong.
I think there is a growing body of discontent with the current (ongoing) state of the country.
My own belief, based on what I have seen, and spoken to a few friends about, is that the big spend -that surge in consumer confidence, has largely been financed by either short term borrowings (overdrafts or minimal credit card use) or long term savings (Christmas clubs, modest credit union savings etc.).
From those I've spoken to there isn't a positive feeling for the coming year.
Many of those in work (myself included) are being squeezed by direct and indirect taxes, general increases in the cost of living, and employers trying to enact "efficiencies", all of these are adding up, and I'm personally starting my new year in a worse position, financially and mentally, than I started last year.
The hyperbole about the budget being less harsh than expected is also grating.
I have little left at the end of every month, I have to balance the financial obligations I have against the obligations I have to my family.
Which is why I missed a mortgage payment so I could put heating oil in my tank and food on the table, I can deal with the bank later.
Granted I could manage my budget a bit better but when it came to the choice between heat and food over a mortgage payment It was a no brainer.
I acknowledge that there are risks to my property if I forego additional payments, but at this point the prospect of empty cupboards and no heat water is more grim.
I find myself constantly questioning why I bother going to work, when I look at my take home pay, deduct the fuel costs and food costs for work I find that I have only about 200 more every month than what we (my family, wife two kids) would receive by way of social protections etc.
So, for the princely amount of 50 a week I get the luxury of working weekend days and nights, and miss my kids growing up while I'm oiling the gears of the economy.
So, I might be a bit pessimistic at the minutes, but no economic recovery, at least in my house.

TLDR version:
No recovery,
Country's broke,
Why work?

same as yourself, i feel your pain and know what its like ask myself the exact same question as you have typed above

your family is first choice feed them and keep them warm

WhatNowForUs?

A couple of questions. What is meant by recovery and who commissioned the housing report mentioned earlier in the thread.

donegal_road

unless they rip up the promissory notes, there will be no recovery .

The Anglo debt alone will take 18 years to pay

carlmango11

Pilotdude5 wrote: »

They might spin some figures and results to make it look good but I voted no. We have built enough houses and the motorway network is in place. We cant really have another building boom. The next two decades will be stagnant at best.

It's probably hard to believe but endless construction isn't the only way to build an economy.

Pilotdude5

carlmango11 wrote: »

It's probably hard to believe but endless construction isn't the only way to build an economy.

I know too well like China but I really don't see the IT or Pharmaceuticals here in the long term. They will find equally qualified graduates in other countries who will work for considerably less, and have their buildings built for less. I actually hope that happens as it will be a fantastic opportunity for those countries to develop. In fact name any industry in Ireland and it can be done cheaper somewhere else. We don't really offer anything unique in this globalized world. We might retain a few Data centres because of our climate but that's it.
Agri exports are good at the moment but how long will that last for? I know some farmers who just had their worst summer ever.

I'm out anyway dudes, the taxes I paid while I still had work probably bailed out some early 2000's, Indo reading, vodka-bar frequenting, graduate couple who knew it all, from their 100% mortgage.

Gurgle

Gurgle wrote: »

1.5% Growth in 2011
0.9% Growth in 2012
Guesses for 2013 seem to average out at ~0.5% to 1% growth.

The worst austerity budgets are done
The bailout process is done

I don't think its going to get worse.
Recovery? dunno.

What qualifies as a 'recovery' anyway?

The word recovery could imply a return to former health. I.e full employment and boom time growth rates.

iDave

We've turned the corner.....

Gurgle

Deleted User wrote: »

The word recovery could imply a return to former health. I.e full employment and boom time growth rates.

Wouldn't we call that a 'boom' rather than a 'recovery'?

I don't mean that in a smart arsed way, I genuinely don't know if 'recovery' has a definable threshold. We're not in recession any more, it didn't go as far as a depression, we sure as hell aren't in a boom... Is it more a question of semantics than economics?

Gurgle

Gurgle wrote: »

Wouldn't we call that a 'boom' rather than a 'recovery'?

I don't mean that in a smart arsed way, I genuinely don't know if 'recovery' has a definable threshold. We're not in recession any more, it didn't go as far as a depression, we sure as hell aren't in a boom... Is it more a question of semantics than economics?

It could be said that we've already recovered, as in the bubble has been popped and we're now in a stable state of level economic activity.

Well, it would be it it wasn't for the debt hangover sucking all the "spare" money out of the economy!

gurramok

Car sales were down 12.5% or so in 2012(http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0102/2012-car-sales-down-12-on-previous-year-business.html ), the Xmas growth that the Indo was dancing about was because the sales started early in alot of shops!

gbee

Report on local radio this am, asylum seeker applications are down 25% [did not say against what].

Whilst there was a few deportions, many times more were granted. Watch the press media for the actual figures.

I don't see the recession ending for any man or woman on the ground, we will next be asked to pay for the recovery and job creation.

On a point, the only wealth is in and from manufacture, make something from a collection of cheaper raw materials and sell it, all any service industry does is circulate and profit off that wealth.