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Basic Probability Question

  • 24-12-2012 1:45am
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 246 ✭✭


    This should be easy, but I'm not too sure.

    4 people choose random integers between 1 and 12 inclusive.
    (a) Probability that 3 (but not 4) people choose the same integer
    (b) Probability exactly two different are chosen.

    What I have:
    (a)
    Pr(3 pick same) = (12/12) * (1/12) * (11/12) * (1/12) = 0.00637
    Is this correct?

    (b)
    Pr(2 integers exactly) = (12/12) * (11/12) * (2/12) * (2/12) = 0.0255
    I don't think this is right though - an alternative method

    Pr(2 integers exactly) = (12 C 2)/(12 C 4) = 0.1333

    Giving me drastically different answers, neither of which are right I think. Do you know where I'm going wrong?


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,141 ✭✭✭Yakuza


    The first one can be done as a Bernoulli trial with the probabilty of success of 1/12. What are the chances of getting 3 sucesses in 4 trials?

    The second one doesn't fit that pattern, but can be done from first principles easily enough I think.
    There are 12 options for the first number, and 11 options for the second number. Lastly, how many ways can you arrange 4 things when there are two pairs of equal items?
    4!/(2! * 2!)
    If you multiply all those together and divide by 12^4 (the total number of possibilites of 4 people picking from 12 numbers) should give you the right answer.


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