Welsh National 2012

Nulty

Teaforthree is my pick and has been since this time last year. Le Beau Bai has been taken out for some reason. Anyone know?

Jadanli is one of the slowest horses I've ever seen and this will suit him well I think. Even so, he will probably be still too slow for this. 40/1 is too tempting though.

RichieLawlor

High hind limb injury for Le Beau Bai whatever that is

Nulty

might be called off due to water logging apparently. Something like 50mm of rain the last few days. I hope its not called off. Just watched Carvills Hill do his thing again there.

Morgans

There are days when horses are on song and its hard to imagine any horse ever beating them.

Kauto Star in his first betfair,Kicking King in his Durkan Chase, and Carvills Hill that day. Jaw dropping.

BlueBaron

got word for Viking blond for this, owners burned there fingers last year when horse was pulled up, something amiss, very bullish again this time around and are confident of a hopeful showing

Nulty

Hard to take Viking Blond now at second favourite. I am thinking about taking Our Island at 33/1 aswell.

Sometimes you have a bet a week, a month before a race and your confidence just gets stronger and stronger. Other times you find yourself picking threats all over the place like Jadanli and Our Island. I'm always surprised at the way my view of a race develops relative to my bets.

Our Island will be stronger and better this year. He'll stay but again the worry is if he has the pace. That's the difference between Teaforthree and the rest of them. He has pace that the rest probably don't.

If Tidal Bay comes over for the Lexus which seems likely, Our Island will carry 10-03, Teaforthree 11-08 and Jadanli 10-10. That's whats making me hesitate about Teaforthree but he seems so suited to the race it might not even be an issue.

Nulty

**** one, rescheduled for January 5th. I'd say McCoy and Walsh will be available though.

Drac the Bassman

The race is now being run on Saturday 5th January and as I am just about 12 miles from Chepstow, across the Severn Bridge on the English side, can report that it's a fine day today and the meeting should go ahead.

• Over the past four seasons, 7yo's have run well in this race (when it has been run late as this year, an 8yo won. So at the time the race should've gone off, that winner was a 7yo.
  
• All winners were either FR or IRE bred
  
• All raced over 24F last time out
  
• All finished in the first 6 last time out
  
• Winners have come either from the top 4 OR or the bottom 5 OR
  
• All have come from the top 10 in the betting

My selection, based on the above, is

UNIVERSAL SOLDIER

with the danger being

Quarts De Thaix

Happy Punting for 2013

Nulty

Can we get a merge! http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056837139

Thanks for posting Drac, this is one of my favourite races, if not my favourite.

Yer wasting yer time lads - #T43

Nulty

Oddschecker has a few bookies dropping a price on Quartz de Thaix. Anything in that?

Drac the Bassman

Taken from Racing Post online today

Universal Soldier, second to fellow Welsh National candidate Quartz De Thaix at Haydock on soft ground in November on his only start so far this season, was cut a couple of points to 12-1 by bet365, Boylesports, Blue Square and William Hill on Thursday.
The Welsh National looks unlikely to attract a maximum field of 20 when declarations are done on Friday morning, but should still offer each-way betting to four places, with at least 16 runners lining up.

That suits Longsdon just fine as he said: "He has an each-way chance. He is in great form and will have some headgear on to help him. This has been the plan for a long, long time. He wants heavy ground and three and a half miles."

3ndahalfof6

GILES CROSS and UNIVERSAL SOILDER so cross them off the list,

going against all of the above information (I would expect nothing less from me) OUR ISLAND

tipster

michel le bon would be the one for me

MoscowFlyer

Major Malarkey for me if he goes

25s in most places, represents great E/W value IMO

Nulty

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Major Malarkey for me if he goes

25s in most places, represents great E/W value IMO

He's not going. NTD said he'd want better ground and will only send VB

Slattsy

The value is gone on T43, i missed the boat at 6/1.

Im leaning towards Sona Sasta @ 7/1 here with a penalty, goes on ground, light weight and no trip issues. Decent claimer on too.
I'll be shocked if he's not placed.

hucklebuck

I just watched the race again and saw Carberrys interview. I would say Scu is spitting!

"Tom Scudamore came in to me and said he'll love this and drop him out the back like a non trier"