Lexus Chase

klairondavis

Bit of debate over on the King George thread over whether Flemenstar will stay. For what it's worth, I think he will stay the trip. Whether he will improve for this trip is another matter though. I think Rubi Light stayed the three miles well enough in this last year but he didn't really improve for the step up. On the other hand, there was great debate over whether the likes of Imperial Call, Kicking King and War Of Attrition would get the trip and all three improved for the test of stamina. It's anyone's guess whether Flemenstar will. No bet race for me.

ste2010

It's a tough one to call alright. Ill be going for a place bet myself - pandorama if he runs and hidden cyclone.. Is tidal bay still coming over for it? There's one who could run a mighty rac and dash all Irish hopes and dreams

RichieLawlor

Unless something unexposed is a superstar, like HC then Tidal bay will win this in a canter (well, as much as a canter as his running style allows) rated 174 and putting up his best performances this year.

Hulk Hands

If Flemenstar stays I think he'll be incredibly tough to beat. But I think HC is potentially a superstar and 7's is a fair price that he's up to this level. The way the ground is going will suit too

Morgans

Tidal Bay for me as well.

3l off Bob's Worth giving 6lbs. Bob's Worth wouldn't be 5/1 in this.

Too good an opportunity to miss really and given the way the weather is going, those with stamina doubts will have them tested.

prettyboy81

If Tidal Bay makes the short swim across the Irish Sea I shall be backing him, as I think they could ride him handily in the race to make best use of him against our 3milers.

Should he not make the boat then it will be Hidden Cyclone e/w.

jayroyal

Can't see Tidal bay winning, Sir de champs will be a different horse upped in distance. It's a tough one but Flemenstar might just out jump him.

Sammo13

I'll be on Tidal Bay as well. 5/1 is good value, compared to 13/8 Fleminstar. SDC runs then it'll be a cracker and I can't see TB out of the first 3. If SDC goes to Kempton, Fleminstar could go off 5/4, which for me is crazy. I think the horse is class, but looking at him race I wonder if he more a speed horse than a stayer and the Lexus will give us a answer, so happy to take him on with TB, Hennessy form is rock solid.. Bobs Worth looks a serious horse and Tidal Bay ran a cracker there, ground to suit..

Arctic89

Tidal Bay is probably a bit of value, I'd wonder is this race coming a bit soon after the Hennessy though, lumping top weight around Newbury can leave a mark. Nicholls has a decent record in this race though with Denman and What A Friend both taking it in recent years.

Flemenstar for me, his jumping is so good that he should be making ground at every fence. Plus I personally think he's an even better jumper going left handed. Cant say he appeals at the prices though, will only have a small bet on the day as I'll probably be at the track.

ste2010

I love the way everyone is feeding into the flemenstar buzz. There are questions there to be answered but his price doesn't suggest there are..pandorama , hidden cyclone and tidal bay.. I'd much rather be on an each way bet with those 3 and split my single with flemenstar .. FACT one of those three will make my stake back if not increase is..find the value

Harry Angstrom

3 miles around Leopardstown wouldn't be the most taxing of tasks. The likes of Florida Pearl was able to win around there easy enough even though he barely got the 3 miles at Cheltenham when he won the Sun Alliance Chase. I'd expect Flemenstar to get the trip easily enough around Leopardstown.

Moon Dice

Do we think the odds in Flemenstar will shorten any more? 11/10 now from 2/1 earlier in the week. If Sir des champs declares for the King George i assume it will shorten

rossom

Moon Dice wrote: »

Do we think the odds in Flemenstar will shorten any more? 11/10 now from 2/1 earlier in the week. If Sir des champs declares for the King George i assume it will shorten

SDC confirmed for the Lexus

Moon Dice

rossom wrote: »

SDC confirmed for the Lexus

Oh sorry i wasn't aware. Should be a great race

Harry Angstrom

Paddy Power have pushed Flemenstar out to 11/8 on the back of that news about SDC. Might turn out to be a generous enough price.

Nulty

RP has Pandorama owned by Noel Meade. Story?

the groutch

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

3 miles around Leopardstown wouldn't be the most taxing of tasks. The likes of Florida Pearl was able to win around there easy enough even though he barely got the 3 miles at Cheltenham when he won the Sun Alliance Chase. I'd expect Flemenstar to get the trip easily enough around Leopardstown.

that's part of why I couldnt back Tidal Bay, he needs a good slog on a stiff track. Tidal Bay won't be seen at his best til March.

I'll probably have a small e/w punt on Pandorama, hoping that he's retained most of his ability

Morgans

the groutch wrote: »

that's part of why I couldnt back Tidal Bay, he needs a good slog on a stiff track. Tidal Bay won't be seen at his best til March.

Galloping track like Newbury/Wetherby?

He did win an Arkle.

I still think he is a great bet. The main danger to me is that he sulks.

Morgans

Those who think Leopardstown is an easy 3m should have a look at Beef or Salmon beating the Listener in the Hennessey a few years ago. Florida Pearl won at Leopardstown because he was so much better than the others in the race. He won a King George and at Down Royal and he did win a Sun Alliance Chase. Unless we are calling Down Royal or Cheltenham easy, the horse clearly stayed 3m, just not 3m2.5f of the Gold Cup. Why is Sizing Europe not going for it if its an easy 3m?

For Flemenstar fans, if he wins this, you have a gold cup horse on your hands. HE may well stay, but it wont be because Leopardstown is an "easy" 3m.

hucklebuck

Morgans wrote: »

Why is Sizing Europe not going for it if its an easy 3m?

He is still in the market on B365, I hope the rain stops so he cant take his chance.

11/10 Flemenstar Antepost is ****ing criminal, I think he will take all the beating but could get pulled out if its bottomless.

Hopefully the wind last night was in Leopardstown, that would have helped dry the ground out.

hucklebuck

On Flemenstar, he is 4/1 for the Gold Cup with VCbet so going to take that before the Lexus, if he doesn't run in it you get a free bet to your stake on the Friday morning.

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

On Flemenstar, he is 4/1 for the Gold Cup with VCbet so going to take that before the Lexus, if he doesn't run in it you get a free bet to your stake on the Friday morning.

If you back Flemenstar at 4/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup I'm putting you on ignore on principal.

4/1, Flemenstar, Cheltenham Gold Cup. Honestly just threw up in my mouth

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

If you back Flemenstar at 4/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup I'm putting you on ignore on principal.

4/1, Flemenstar, Cheltenham Gold Cup. Honestly just threw up in my mouth

That was an error, he is 5/1. I will be backing him:)

Whats wrong with that Richie? He wins if he gets the trip as far as I am concerned.

The reason I am taking the 5/1 with VC is I get my stake back if he doesn't run in it.

Nulty

hucklebuck wrote: »

That was an error, he is 5/1. I will be backing him:)

Whats wrong with that Richie? He wins if he gets the trip as far as I am concerned.

The reason I am taking the 5/1 with VC is I get my stake back if he doesn't run in it.

I had the same great plan for Pandorama in 2011. He ran and I lost my stake. Only difference was I got 50/1

RichieLawlor

hucklebuck wrote: »

That was an error, he is 5/1. I will be backing him:)

Whats wrong with that Richie? He wins if he gets the trip as far as I am concerned.

The reason I am taking the 5/1 with VC is I get my stake back if he doesn't run in it.

I don't think he is a true stayer, I don't think Sir Des Champs is any good, the form isn't worth anything to me. We are lacking a top notch staying chaser over here.

klairondavis

Who's your own fancy Richie?

RichieLawlor

klairondavis wrote: »

Who's your own fancy Richie?

I think Tidal Bay should be favourite and I'll be betting him

RichieLawlor

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think Tidal Bay should be favourite and I'll be betting him

For the Lexus obv, Long Run will win the Gold Cup

hucklebuck

I think you are being harsh on Flemenstar Richie, I think he looks very classy and to my eye he had plenty left against SDC.

I think Flemenstar could be the new top notch Irish stayer.

I agree that Tidal Bay is the big danger and is very big at 5/1, I might just have enough ew on him to cover my smash on Flemenstar(he would have to be at least 6/4 for me though, it looks a very competitive race.

I may even double Tidal Bay with Edgardo Sol, it's rare Nicholls sends anything over so have to take note but Sol will have a massive job on his hands if as expected Sizing switches to the dial a bet.

mailburner

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I don't think Sir Des Champs is any good, the form isn't worth anything to me. We are lacking a top notch staying chaser over here.

I didn't think he was any good and still don't, didnt fancy him
at all today but I was almost counting my money on flemenstar
he is however second fav for the gc at 7/1 which i think is lunacy
he will do well to place

I do now think though that bobs worth is a standout bet at 7/2
Nothing will touch this horse come march and to me long run is
probably the biggest danger but long run at 7s v sdc at 7s?
no contest for me

flemenstar might place but i'd like to see him bowling along in front and
if they do that i think 12s is a good ew price
it'll be interesting to see what price flemenstar is for the irish hennessy

allthedoyles

81/1 treble for RW - really impressive driving today.

Paul Nichols said after the race '' I was cutting Ruby - he was giving the horse too much to do''

Before the race when Paul was been interviewed about the prospects of Tidal Bay , he said '' you just saw Ruby's brilliance there ''


Can he make up his mind and give credit where credit is due .

mailburner

3 great rides by ruby
talk about getting it right every time

mdwexford

All the Irish chasers are **** then it seems.

Bobs Worth looks a lock for the Gold Cup.

bit of a bogey

What a race but not so sure there was a gold cup winner in the field. The only one that I'd still give a chance to would be Sir Des Champs. Just think the longer trip on better ground round cheltenham would suit him better although his jumping would have to improve.

HillFarmer

Had Flemenstar jumped the last well I think he may have won it to be honest. He got under the fence and that affected him until the line.


Great ride by Ruby, don't see gold cup winner though, Long run for me is still the horse to beat.

bit of a bogey

HillFarmer wrote: »

Had Flemenstar jumped the last well I think hemay have won it to be honest. He got under the fence and that affected himuntil the line.

Interesting to hear some say he might have winded himself after the last. It did look like he just didnt get home but its plausible and he defo deserves another crack at 3m. The Hennessy does look ideal.

I personally always thought he was gonna get 3m but never really fancied himfor the GC trip.

Morgans

That he winded himself after the last is the clutchiest of straws. Horse didnt stay - if none of the others turn up for the Hennessey, he could be good enough to land a big pot. It wont mean that he stays well enough to win a Gold Cup though

Slattsy

What a ****ing race !!!!!

Arctic89

It's extremely harsh to say a horse beaten by a length didn't stay in my opinion. Looked to me as if the ground wasn't to his liking. He emptied far too quickly for it to be a case of not staying. A horse who didn't stay would have been beaten 20 lengths,not by 1 length.

mailburner

no doubt if they rode him differently he would have won but that
extra 2f up the hill at chelt will probably find him out

my money will on him for the hennessy though
I can't wait to see how they price up that one

Morgans

A horse emptying like that is more rather than less likely to a horse who doesnt stay.

Usain Bolt would beat me in a marathon. When people are saying he doesnt stay, what they really mean is that 3m is beyond his optimal trip. Flemenstar will be a better horse at less than 3m. It doesnt mean that he cant win over 3m against inferior opposition.

hucklebuck

The ground that day seemed a little deader than soft, I think Flemenstar will win over 3 miles on better ground but unlikely to get the Gold Cup trip even if good (soft in places) come March