Thursday 13th December

rossom

5.30 Kempton Nazreef 20/1 my NAP for tomorrow. Write up to come but I'd say price won't last all that long.

rossom

5.30 Kempton

Nazreef 20/1 NAP

I think this race looks a fascinating contest as, although there are plenty of horses who like to sit close to the pace, there isn't really an out and out front runner (Bank On Me, True To Form and Grey Mirage have done so very infrequently) so I'm really hoping Hughie Morrison gives Robert Winston the instruction to make all with Nazreef as he did so very effectively over today's C+D back in April as I think he could easily get an easy time of things out in front. Focusing on Nazreef specifically, he hasn't been at his best since that race when scoring in really impressive fashion by 3L in a race that worked out very nicely off only a 1lb lower mark but he certainly showed a great deal more on his last start to suggest he's coming back to his best and looked as if a return to the winners enclosure was not far away. In the early part of the year, Nazreef was in fine form landing a 9f contest event at Wolves off a mark of 94 in March before bettering that in superb style 2 starts later off a mark of 96 over Kempton's mile when making all in a first time visor to land what looked an extremely competitive event on paper in really taking fashion as he was eased down at the end for a comfortable success a month later. Nazreef had one final start before a break on the turf where he bombed out and probably picked up a slight knock as he was eased. Regardless, he really doesn't seem to be at home on that surface anymore and there is a 20lb disparity between his AW and turf marks now.

On the back of 4 month absence, he made his reappearance at Windsor on soft ground before returning to the AW over today's C+D for two starts in September. The first of these was off a mark of 103 (upped 7lb for his emphatic victory earlier in the year) where he never seemed happy and was never better than midfield as he trailed home in last and a good looking conditions event where he again didn't look at home as he couldn't really pick up when held off the pace. He then had two more starts on the turf before taking in a handicap hurdle last month but after looking pretty out of form in his 6 starts since August (you've got to ignore all the turf runs) he showed an awful lot more over 10f at Lingfield at the end of November off his current mark of 97 and I think there is one glaring reason for this - it was the first time since his win in April that he was prominent on the AW. Under today's pilot Robert Winston, Nazreef sat just off the pace the whole way round and with about 1f to go he was bang there with every chance but I just don't think he lasted home the 1m2f trip as he was nabbed for 3rd on the line as he was ultimately beaten 1.75L. It was a highly encouraging effort now that his mark had fallen back down to a level he could compete off and I think he's definitely going to build on that run. That race was full of in form rivals and the form has worked out rather nicely from the two horses who have run since. The 2nd Robin Hoods Bay was beaten 1.5L off a 2lb higher mark over the same C+D when he was forced to lead which I don't think suited whilst the 3rd Emerald Wilderness was beaten a neck on his next start off the same mark. Moreover, the winner Tinshu had won the same race the year previously and was clearly aimed for landing that race for the 2nd year running.

Given that 10f seemed to stretch him, it is not at all surprising that Nazreef is dropped back to a mile and I really hope getting to the lead is the plan as he seemed to love bowling along out in front back in April and it will allow Winston to set the fractions he desires. At the very least, he should be allowed sit very close to the pace given that the other plausible pace angles in the race are drawn wider than him. The ideal scenario would be him getting an easy lead but as long as he gets a share of it or is not far away then I will be happy. The obvious danger is the progressive and unexposed Embankment who looks on a mark that he should be able to exploit but he may looks to need a decent gallop as he comes from off the pace and he is also stepping up significantly in class from a Class 4 to a Class 2 event. In addition, the other two at the top of the market Storm King and Rakaan also like to be held up and I'm hoping this race will be run to suit those that race prominently. Although he hasn't really been at his best since last April when slaughtering a really good field off just 1lb lower, he's now fallen back to a manageable mark and he ran a race full of encouragement on his last start as he is returned to the scene of the victory of his last success. Robert Winston takes the ride and he gets on very well with this 5 year old having a perfect 2-2 record before his latest start. The draw in stall 5 should pose no issues if getting to the front is his aim and I really think he's going to build on his latest effort. With Hughie Morrison in good form at present, if everything goes to plan then I am confident of a very big showing from Nazreef and ideally a return to the winners enclosure.

rossom

The second Nazreef wasn't pushed forward to get a lead I knew the game was up but he did fold very tamely all the same. Perhaps his last run was a false dawn? Only time will tell