Thursday 5th December

UrbanSea

Dashing George 2.00 Leicester 7/2

Absolutely raging about the price. Bet365 somehow opened up 7/1 earlier on for him. This is what I had to say before his last run

The heavy ground at Haydock will make this three mile chase a real slog in the mud and this horse has no problem in such testing conditions. He had some smart form to his name when trained in Ireland by Eric McNamara, including a Grade C handicap chase over 2 and a half miles at the back end of 2008 on testing going off a mark of 115, but arguably his best run came in the Munster National over this kind of trip on soft going at the end of 2009, beaten just a neck by Treacle. That run may have come three years ago, the form of the race is rock solid, with the winner rated 20 pounds above his mark that day, the third horse rated 12 pounds higher than that run, as well as the forth,fifth,seventh and ninth all winning since. He predominantly ran in hurdle races for his next number of runs, though was never quite as good in that sphere and his next run of much promise wasn't until a year later, where he ran a very good race over a trip that was probably too sharp at Aintree in the Grand Sefton Chase off a mark of 131. He stayed chasing for the remainder of that season, running badly at Cheltenham next two runs before finishing second at Bangor over three miles off a mark of 118, beaten seven lengths by Far More Serious, who was placed in a hot race next time out off a nine pound higher mark. Form of the race doesn't jump out at you, but the forth and fifth are subsequent winners over hurdles. His run next time out seemed too bad to be true, never travelling when pulling up at Sandown off a mark of 119, though put that run well behind him next time out again at Sandown over three miles in February 2011, staying on strongly to beat a subsequent winner by over four lengths, while the well beaten forth and sixth have since won.
The horse has clearly had his problems since,however, and returned from a break of over 18 months with a brilliant effort in a competitive extended handicap 3 mile chase at Aintree last month off this mark, beaten just half a length(did touch 1.3 in running),with the front three clear of the remainder. Judging from his comeback run, it's clear the horse has maintained his ability even as a ten year old, and comes into the race in good heart and at the bottom of the weights, with Tom O'Brien carrying 10-6. Hopefully Richard Newland's gelding can avoid the dreaded bounce factor and go one better.Whilst not the best price for each way betting, he surely has a good chance of at least placing if putting his best foot forward.
The race does appear to be quite strong, unsurprisingly, and Quartz de Thaix is respected having gotten back to winning ways last time out in good style, though he has never been one to place much faith in. Quincy des Pictons was ultra progressive last year, winning three times, though a 42 pound rise may prove beyond him since the first of his wins, though more progression can't be ruled out, though his race fitness is taken on trust. Pigeon Island has promising form figures, with a win and two placings in his last three runs, though he hasn't suggested that this kind of trip on testing going is what he needs.Gullible Gordon has never quite reached the heights he promised following a novice chase win at Chepstow a couple of years ago, though he is potentially well handicapped on his first start for Peter Bowen. Of the remainder, Lie Forrit's first start in a handicap last time out seemed too bad to be true, and it'd be no surprised to see him bounce back.

I'd be concerned about the step back in trip tomorrow but he was travelling really well at Haydock before he just emptied three out. Dropped 4 pounds for that (very generously) he can race in a class 4. Seriously raging about the price I missed, think he will take an awful lot of beating.


One other I like is Jack Bene 3.15 Clonmel 13/2

Contrarily I think this is a very big price on him. Enters handicap company over fences off a mark of 109. Was a decent hurdler and I think he's well handicapped coming in here after showing a lot of promise behind Jetson last time

UrbanSea

One other small bet. Glen's Melody is deservedly odds on but not a 5/1 on, Sophie's Shadow is overpriced 12/1 second fav will have a small win on her, wouldn't be the first short priced Mullins horse to be beat in recent weeks (8/13,1/5,9/10,4/7) all beaten in a week

beaker1

leicester off and market rasen off

Colonel Sanders

Dashing George goes at Sandown tomorrow

BlueBaron

Followed you Urban with Jack Bene for a small few quid, could be very well handicapped

UrbanSea

Thought we had a winner Baron. Headed near the line.

Thanks Colonel, was going to go to Ladbrokes yesterday evening to take the 6/1. By the time I was dressed it was 4/1

ft9

UrbanSea wrote: »

Thought we had a winner Baron. Headed near the line.

Thanks Colonel, was going to go to Ladbrokes yesterday evening to take the 6/1. By the time I was dressed it was 4/1

Well I hope you learned your lesson....

Go naked next time.

UrbanSea

Couldn't man. Would have models hanging off me. Bitches be getting in my way

Backstreet Moyes

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Dashing George goes at Sandown tomorrow

Really fancy Monkerty Tunkerty in the race. Jumps like a stag and needed the run last time and dropped 5 pounds. A tough race might try a reverse forecast also.

BlueBaron

Nuts102 wrote: »

Really fancy Monkerty Tunkerty in the race. Jumps like a stag and needed the run last time and dropped 5 pounds. A tough race might try a reverse forecast also.

non runner