Anyone interested in this accumulator

Tirnanog16

I placed an eight fold accumulator in August with a £20 stake to win £4,880. Anyway 2 of the selections have already come in and I am confident about the others but could really need some money at the moment.

The selections are as follows:
Man Utd to win the premier league, Sligo rovers to win the Airtricity league (won), Celtic to win the SPL, Bayern Munich to win the Bundesliga, Juventus to win Serie A, PSG to win the French league, PSV Eindhoven to win the Dutch league and Vettel to win the 2012 F1 drivers championship.

Is there anyone interested in buying this bet off me.

Mr. Manager

How much are you expecting to get from this?

Tirnanog16

I was hoping to get a few hundred.

Gotya

Tirnanog16 wrote: »

I was hoping to get a few hundred.

If someone was to place "a few hundred" on the 6 bets left on the accum, wouldn't that make more profit?.

Gotya

Gotya wrote: »

If someone was to place "a few hundred" on the 6 bets left on the accum, wouldn't that make more profit?.

Never mind, i guess you can't get them prices anymore.

clickerquicklic

Nice bet its about 20/1 shot of coming in at current prices so a few hundred is too much imo

IncognitoMan

Is there a reason you are selling it of

ConorCBS

IncognitoMan wrote: »

Is there a reason you are selling it of

From the OP:

Tirnanog16 wrote: »

really need some money at the moment.

BorneTobyWilde

Is this a scam :P

IncognitoMan

@ConorCBS Sorry half asleep

Gotya

Thought I'd add this, if it's any help.



Barclays Premier League;
TEAM
1 Man Utd 36 PTS
2 Man City 33 PTS
3 Chelsea 26 PTS


Scottish Premier League;
TEAM
1 Celtic 28 PTS
2 Hibernian 27 PTS
3 Inverness CT 25 PTS

French league;
TEAM
1 Olympique Lyonnais 31 PTS
2 Olympique de Marseille 29 PTS
3 AS Saint-Etienne 26 PTS
4 PARIS Saint-Germain 26 PTS

Dutch Eredivisie;
TEAM
1 Twente Enschede 34 PTS
2 Vitesse Arnhem 34 PTS
3 PSV Eindhoven 33 PYS


German Bundesliga;
TEAM
1 Munich 38 PTS
2 Bayer Leverkusesn 30 PTS
3 Borussia Dortorm 27 PTS


SERIE A;
TEAM
1 Juventus 35 PTS
2 Napoli 33 PTS
3 Internazionale 31 PTS

2012 F1 drivers championship;

01 Sebastian Vettel 281 PTS
02 Fernando Alonso 278 PTS
03 Kimi Räikkönen 207 PTS

Motivator

Don't attempt to get rid of this docket for a couple of hundred quid. It could yield €6,000 are you mad? Stick with it its a nice little docket to give you an interest in 4 different leagues across Europe right up until next may.

Trust me you will regret it, don't get rid of it. I did something similar a couple of years ago & it cost me €2k & I never got over it, I'm still bitter about it.

keane2097

No point posting tables, just post what prices each of the remaining individual elements are and we can tell you how much the docket is worth in short order.

DB74

Best odds 9.25/1 with Boyles

Celtic 1/125 (1/50 with Coral)
Man Utd 5/6 (best price)
Bayern (1/16) (1/14 with Paddy Power)
Juventus 4/9 (5/11 with Bwin)
PSV Eind 13/10 (best price)
PSG 4/7 (8/13 with Stan James)

At odds of 9.25/1 you would have to stake roughly €478 for a return of €4,900 (actually €4,899.50)

However if you were able to get the best price on every single outcome in an accumulator (which you obviously can't get in any single bookies) then the best odds are 9.83/1. At odds of 9.83/1 you would have to stake roughly €452 for a return of €4,900 (actually €4,895.16)

IMO (for what it's worth) a fair price is somewhere in between the 2 (say €465)

That way the buyer is getting better odds than they can get in any one bookies on the high street while the seller is getting slightly above market value for the docket

SRFC

Get a lend and wait until theres only 2 your're waiting on say Many U and someone else then lay the bet off for a few grand profit if you dont fancy letting it run

Collie D

DB74 wrote: »

Best odds 9.25/1 with Boyles

Celtic 1/125 (1/50 with Coral)
Man Utd 5/6 (best price)
Bayern (1/16) (1/14 with Paddy Power)
Juventus 4/9 (5/11 with Bwin)
PSV Eind 13/10 (best price)
PSG 4/7 (8/13 with Stan James)

At odds of 9.25/1 you would have to stake roughly €478 for a return of €4,900 (actually €4,899.50)

However if you were able to get the best price on every single outcome in an accumulator (which you obviously can't get in any single bookies) then the best odds are 9.83/1. At odds of 9.83/1 you would have to stake roughly €452 for a return of €4,900 (actually €4,895.16)

IMO (for what it's worth) a fair price is somewhere in between the 2 (say €465)

That way the buyer is getting better odds than they can get in any one bookies on the high street while the seller is getting slightly above market value for the docket

But then the buyer is staking €465 on a preset bet. It's a high stake and anyone staking that amount of money would want their own selections. There's no value in that for the buyer.

DB74

I despair

Collie D

DB74 wrote: »

I despair

Why?

It doesn't make any sense to pay €465 to get 9.53/1 on a bet where best odds are only slightly lower at 9.25. Would you risk that amount for an extra quarter of a point on the odds? Especially where you can't even choose your own selections?

keane2097

The docket has a defined dollar value based on the market prices. If you are buying the docket for less than that amount you are by definition getting value.

The general lack of knowledge about what the word means in the context of a gambling forum is mad.

Collie D

keane2097 wrote: »

The docket has a defined dollar value based on the market prices. If you are buying the docket for less than that amount you are by definition getting value.

The general lack of knowledge about what the word means in the context of a gambling forum is mad.

I am well aware of the concept of value. Do you think an extra quarter of a point or 3% higher odds makes it value? Who is to say 9.5/1 is a good price? IMO it's not. Perhaps it's a 12/1 shot so you're only buying negative EV. If you reckon it's a 7/1 shot go for it. I don't

What one person sees as value doesn;t mean everyone will see it as value. It's all opinion and mine is you would be mad to buy this bet at €465. Surely you can find a bet that you see as value at 9.5/1 of your own accord without having to stick to someone else's selections.

The seller has to offer some incentive better than an extra 3%. I'm not starting a bargaining war. I just don't see the point in paying €465. And I know that's not the OP's figure, am just stating that's an unrealistic amount.

TL;DR If this is a value bet at 9.5/1 why not buy it or even place it yourself for whatever stake you want?

keane2097

Your post referenced the size of the stake and the fact that the selections are not the buyer's own as the reasons there is no value in the transaction. Both are obviously irrelevant to what the docket is worth and any value in the transaction.

The fact that you rate the chances of the ticket coming in at greater than the market odds also has no impact on the market value of the docket.

I couldn't even tell you what selections are on the docket and have no interest in tying up a % of my BR in a high variance future fwiw.

Collie D

keane2097 wrote: »

Your post referenced the size of the stake and the fact that the selections are not the buyer's own as the reasons there is no value in the transaction. Both are obviously irrelevant to what the docket is worth and any value in the transaction.

The fact that you rate the chances of the ticket coming in at greater than the market odds also has no impact on the market value of the docket.

I couldn't even tell you what selections are on the docket and have no interest in tying up a % of my BR in a high variance future fwiw.

If I rate the odds at 12/1 the odds of 9.5/1 would have a huge relevance in terms of gambling value.

Regarding the market value I think this is a buyer's market so seller needs to entice a potential buyer. I've no interest in a high stake accum either so again I'm not trying to drop the price. If OP gets €465 fair play to him and good luck to the buyer. 3% is not an incentive to me, if I wasn't going to back something at 33/1 a bookie enhancing the odds to 34/1 wouldn't change my mind

keane2097

So we're not actually talking about value at all. Cool beans.

SRFC

Ill offer you 100 :pac: sweet 80 quid profit for ya

Collie D

SRFC wrote: »

Ill offer you 100 :pac: sweet 80 quid profit for ya

If he went that low I'd give 110

SRFC

Collie D wrote: »

If he went that low I'd give 110

120 :pac:

NewApproach

The prices you are quoting at the moment for the remaining accum of 9.5/1 or whatever have a compounded overround from the bookies built in, obvioulsy in a six fold accum this will be significant (lol accumulators).

To get the true $ value of the slip, you need to factor out the overrounds from the individual markets when calculating the true odds. A roughguess is thatthis would add somewhere around 17-20% to the pice being bandied about. I cant be arsed working it out but I reckon it would be somewhere in that region. Then the purchaser would also need to factor in that capital is being tied up for six months.

DB74

The over-round is largely irrelevant here, for 2 reasons:

1. If the buyer of the docket is interested in the accumulator anyway as he would have to pay the over-round on the high street. The docket is only worth what it can fetch on the open market and, for better or worse, the open market either has an over-round or a 5% commission charge (worse on multiples)

2. At the sharp end of the market, there is far less over-round as the vast majority of the over-round is contained in the outsiders. You see this every day in the horse-racing markets on Betfair where the official SP is often very close to the 100%-market Betfair SP (sometimes better than BF) despite the fact that the race may have a 10% over-round while the disparity between BF & official SPs is greatest as the price of each horse gets bigger