Friday 30th November

UrbanSea

Wasn't going to have a bet tomorrow but will have a very small one on

Mia's Boy 5.55 Wolv 12/1

This is something I'd written elsewhere prior to his last run at Lingfield. He ran poorly that day in what was a better race than this one, but was dropped 3 pounds subsequently. The market said all what was expected there, going from 14/1 to an SP of 28/1, with him being available at around 50 on BF for most of the day. Think he could be well handicapped, but not one for an overly big bet.

An eight year old exposed gelded son of Pivotal, he is clearly much better on all weather as opposed to turf, as his 98 rating on the AW versus his 89 on turf shows. A nine time winner, including three times on the all weather, he has slipped to a potentially well handicapped mark here tomorrow, as it's the same mark that he won off last time out, which was a shade under a year ago in quite a strong 9 furlong handicap over at Wolverhampton. Has been in and out of form since, but plenty of promise can be taken from some of his runs, including off his revised mark of 101 when he was beaten two lengths by Excelebration's half brother Mull of Killough, who has subsequently won a Group 3 and a Listed race, as well as finishing about a fifth of a length under tomorrow's jockey George Baker again at Wolverhampton. Was well beaten the next couple of outings in tougher handicaps, but again ran very well under George Baker off a mark of 100 over a furlong shorter than tomorrow, beaten half a length by Ducal (second is a subsequent winner). Not much promise can be taken from his subsequent runs on turf, but a return to his favoured all weather surface and a jockey who clearly gets along well with him could see him back to running a big race.

UrbanSea

Looking for my first winner since the Phoenix Park closed down

UrbanSea

One other. One I've been following Chac Du Cadran 3.05 Doncaster 9/2

Been following this horse for a good while now and is potentially well handicapped. Backed him at 5/1 the day he was runner up in a handicap hurdle at Southwell last season before being very well backed into 7/4, beaten in to second by Night in Milan off 114 (gave him seven pounds). He is a rejuvenated horse since, runner up twice next two runs over fences and demolished a handicap field off a mark of 111 and is now rated 124. The third that day (well outclassed by the front pair) has shown good form since, winning two handicap chases with the latter off an 8 pound higher mark, and only beaten 4 lengths in a much better handicap with another seven pounds. I was raging that day, thought he was well ahead of his mark and had ran a blinder behind the very progress Thehillofuisneach before that. I remember reading the trainer's blog at the time and he thought the world of the horse and couldn't wait for him to jump a fence. Ran a decent race when placed off 120 next time out behind Allthekingshorses here at Doncaster (second won a valuable race decisively next time out).

Has disappointed both runs this term over fences, first time out in a novice chase at Wetherby but he may have needed the run, but was bitterly disappointing last time out stepped into handicap company off a mark of 117, again getting very well backed into 15/8 fav but never landed a blow. A risky bet but he's been given a big chance by the handicapper and suspicions are this horse could be much better than this mark in what looks a very winnable race.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

Looking for my first winner since the Phoenix Park closed down

I live not to far from where that was. Oh how i wish it was still open

jayroyal

That's where the all weather track should have been.

Johner

Can't wait to see how Puffin Billy gets on over hurdles. So impressive in bumpers, looks a real prospect.

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

Looking for my first winner since the Phoenix Park closed down

I grew up about a mile from there but da isnt a racing fan

rossom

I had this wrote out about Double Dash but forgot about it and now the price is gone. Far too short to be backing now but will be interesting to see if George Baker was being truthful!

1.30 Newbury

Double Dash

Before you back this, I have e-mailed George Baker and he said that he will definitely need the run on the back of a 650 day absence but I think he looks so well handicapped that he could saunter this (that and Baker may be trying to protect the price for connections)

I have been waiting a long time for George Baker's Double Dash to come out and I think this 8 year old looks potentially thrown in off a mark of 109 compared to his chasing exploits to date. A bumper winner as a 5 year old, Double Dash has been the only horse Baker has trained to go the Cheltenham Festival (Champion Bumper - well beaten) so I think that tells you an awful lot about what Baker thinks of him. After a couple of hurdle runs, Double Dash won on his handicap debut in that sphere off a mark of 110 in fine fashion by 13L and purely based on his hurdling form his chasing mark looks potentially very lenient. However, his first 2 chases read very, very well and he is a horse I will be following all season regardless of how he runs tomorrow. After two more runs in handicap hurdles when disappointing, Double Dash made a lovely chasing debut on the back of 6 month absence back in October 2010 when finishing an excellent 1.25L behind Fruity O'Rooney. Fruity O'Rooney, who was also making his chasing debut, is now rated 145 in that sphere so that rates as very strong form. This now 8 year olds 2nd chasing start in November 2010 reads just as well as he finished as staying on 9L beaten 2nd behind the now 142 rated chaser Rebel Du Maquis (receiving 7lb) as he finished 10L clear of the 128 rated Lake Legend and a further 16L clear of the 136 rated Anquetta as he beat those rivals off level weights. He had one start after this when disappointing on handicap debut off a mark of 117 but considering that was his last run before his absence then I think something may have been wrong with him. Based on his 2 runs in a Beginners and Novice chase then I think his mark of 109 looks potentially extremely lenient and he could be chucked in by more than a stone.

I've trawled through George Baker's blog archive and they seem to rate him an awful lot but they also mention that he has a lot of quirks (which Baker re-emphasised in his e-mail to me). On the back of his 650 day absence he could easily need a run or two to get his fitness back up but his excellent chasing debut came on the back of a 6 month absence so its not as if its impossible that he can defy this very lengthy absence. I do think its very interesting that they're running him in a chase first time back when he could easily have been given a run over hurdles and there is just this niggling doubt in my mind that he'll be ready. Trainer George Baker couldn't be in any better form right now as he is operating on a 38% strike rate on the flat this month whilst his last runner in this code was also successful earlier this month. He shouldn't find conditions any issue given that he won his handicap hurdle debut on heavy ground and the 2m2.5f trip should be fine for him as well. In this Conditional Jockey's race, Trevor Whelan (who rode Baker's last winner) takes the ride and he is one of the better pilots in this Class 3 contest. If his ability reads as good as his form then he looks on a ridiculously lenient handicap mark of 109 and although he has a 650 day absence to defy and I have been told he will need the run I think he's worth a bet because he could absolutely annihilate this field if fit and ready to go. Most definitely a horse to watch in the market

sting60

Seanie was not declared for tonight because of a stone bruse.He will run next Friday night so departure to Dubai has been put back three days."He was 90% fit for tonight but I want him 100%"

rossom

Mr Baker may have been honest with me after all. Double Dash got very tired late on.

Johner

Johner wrote: »

Can't wait to see how Puffin Billy gets on over hurdles. So impressive in bumpers, looks a real prospect.

So impressive! Pulled like a train and still hacked up. Nice enough SP at 11/8.

UrbanSea

Chac du Cadran ran a good race, beaten a neck. Definitely has a win in him.

Mia's Boy looked a bit ungenuine under the whip today. Don't like that at all