Wednesday 28th November

rossom

1.10 Wolves

Pelmanism 8/1 NAP

Although he's been very poor of late this screams of a plot about Brian Ellison's 4 year old on what is his lowest handicap mark for 18 months and if all goes to plan then hopefully he can land his 8th career victory. Formerly with Kevin Ryan, he reached his career high when scoring at Haydock with a going away win off a mark of 76 back in September of last year for current connections. Since then, he's had 8 starts (7 this year) and although yet to reach the frame he has fallen a long way in the handicap from a mark of 81 in October 2011 to a mark of 63 and he is now very well handicapped. His plummeting handicap mark is not the only thing that caught my attention but rather a number of other factors that lead me to believe that tomorrow is a day that he will be trying very hard to win. Firstly, its his first start on the AW since March 2011 and he was last seen winning off a 7lb higher mark when last tried on the surface where he has an overall record of 3-6 (yet to race at Wolverhampton). In addition, he's dropping back to a Class 6 for the first time since May 2011 and he has a record of 2131 in this grade where he has never been beaten more that 3/4L. The clincher for me is that blinkers are reapplied for the first time since June 2011 (first time for current connections) and this lazy racer has worn them in 6 of his 7 career victories. It seems highly unlikely that the above factors are happening all at once by coincidence and it leads me to believe that connections will be going all out to land this pretty poor race. Dale Swift, who is 1-2 on board Pelmanism, takes the ride and he has a nice draw from stall 4 which hopefully should allow him to get a nice sit on the rail. The one big concern for me is that Brian Ellison's flat horses have not really being firing this month (1-26; winner at start of month) but he's had a few winners over jumps recently so its not as if he's going through a completely barren spell. With this being his easiest task for a long time, I'm hoping the reapplication of blinkers and a return to the AW spark a revival and if everything goes to plan I'm confident Pelmanism can return to the winners enclosure tomorrow.

UrbanSea

I like Sherika in the 2.55 at Limerick tomorrow.

Hoping for odds of at least 10/1. Still a maiden under rules after 17 runs and a rating of 80 tomorrow you would be forgiven for assuming she's useless but she's been showing a bit lately to suggest she'd be well up for winning off a lowly mark like this. Hadn't shown a lot until a very good run in a 2 and a half mile chase at Bangor back in May, beaten six and a half lengths by the Disengager off a mark of 92. The form of that race is very good, with the winner winning off a mark of 105 that day, but he has since won 3 times (including a Listed handicap chase) and is now rated 141. The runner up that day has subsequently won by 14 lengths off a ten pound higher mark as well, and even the sixth won since though off an 11lb lower mark, but he was 35+ lengths behind Sherika. That was a very good run that day given that it may have been a bit short for her on goodish kind of ground(won a point)

Unsurprisingly ran poorly next time out in a Galway Novice chase, but did run one of the best races of her career next time out over an extended 2 and a half miles at Killarney in a heavy ground handicap chase, finishing just a length behind the Bishop's Lane off a mark of 92 (third won since, fifth is a dual winner subsequently,seventh runner up too).

The next two runs don't look as good, particularly the one at Listowel, but she ran ok last time out at Punchestown behind Highdownhill off a mark of 95. She travelled well for most of the way and went second just before the straight (did go to 2/1 in running from an sp of around 23), but weakened, finishing 32 lengths in sixth. While she won a point, it was on yielding ground and it's possible that 3 miles on heavy going just stretches her. Again, the form of her last race is very good, the winner won a decent handicap at Punchestown next time out off a ten pound higher mark, the second, who I had backed day, was runner up in that race the year before and was well handicapped, though hasn't ran since. The third won a good race last week off a 5 pound higher mark. The biggest question is whether she'll continue her good form switched back to hurdles, but off a mark of 80 and off a lowly weight of 11-2, not taking into account Barry O'Neill's five pound claim ( good rider) she has no excuses not to go well. Happy New Year is sure to be a short fav, but she had a tough race at the weekend on similarly bad ground and is probably worth opposing on balance, even if this race really does look to be lacking strength in depth

cooliotheboya

UrbanSea wrote: »

I like Sherika in the 2.55 at Limerick tomorrow.

Hoping for odds of at least 10/1. Still a maiden under rules after 17 runs and a rating of 80 tomorrow you would be forgiven for assuming she's useless but she's been showing a bit lately to suggest she'd be well up for winning off a lowly mark like this. Hadn't shown a lot until a very good run in a 2 and a half mile chase at Bangor back in May, beaten six and a half lengths by the Disengager off a mark of 92. The form of that race is very good, with the winner winning off a mark of 105 that day, but he has since won 3 times (including a Listed handicap chase) and is now rated 141. The runner up that day has subsequently won by 14 lengths off a ten pound higher mark as well, and even the sixth won since though off an 11lb lower mark, but he was 35+ lengths behind Sherika. That was a very good run that day given that it may have been a bit short for her on goodish kind of ground(won a point)

Unsurprisingly ran poorly next time out in a Galway Novice chase, but did run one of the best races of her career next time out over an extended 2 and a half miles at Killarney in a heavy ground handicap chase, finishing just a length behind the Bishop's Lane off a mark of 92 (third won since, fifth is a dual winner subsequently,seventh runner up too).

The next two runs don't look as good, particularly the one at Listowel, but she ran ok last time out at Punchestown behind Highdownhill off a mark of 95. She travelled well for most of the way and went second just before the straight (did go to 2/1 in running from an sp of around 23), but weakened, finishing 32 lengths in sixth. While she won a point, it was on yielding ground and it's possible that 3 miles on heavy going just stretches her. Again, the form of her last race is very good, the winner won a decent handicap at Punchestown next time out off a ten pound higher mark, the second, who I had backed day, was runner up in that race the year before and was well handicapped, though hasn't ran since. The third won a good race last week off a 5 pound higher mark. The biggest question is whether she'll continue her good form switched back to hurdles, but off a mark of 80 and off a lowly weight of 11-2, not taking into account Barry O'Neill's five pound claim ( good rider) she has no excuses not to go well. Happy New Year is sure to be a short fav, but she had a tough race at the weekend on similarly bad ground and is probably worth opposing on balance, even if this race really does look to be lacking strength in depth

Great tips your usually on the ball.

Luap

Hoping the money is right! 7/2 now.

BlueBaron

On at 5's, fingers crossed!

BlueBaron

didnt see the race, only result...gutted!

rossom

Gamble foiled. Fingers of connections most definitely burnt. Breaking slowly pretty much ended all chance as the race was over by the time he turned into the home turn.

the groutch

you never seem to get any luck with the flat, gonna wait and see what you tip up for the jumps at the weekend

Slattsy

Very unlucky imo.
Broke slow, scrubbed along, then had so sit and suffer for a few strides turning in... by that time the winner had flown.
Def laid out for the race, pity it didnt come to fruition.

Good shout Ross lad.

Johner

Tempo Du Camp was fatally injured in the maiden hurdle.

rossom

Slattsy wrote: »

Very unlucky imo.
Broke slow, scrubbed along, then had so sit and suffer for a few strides turning in... by that time the winner had flown.
Def laid out for the race, pity it didnt come to fruition.

Good shout Ross lad.

I'm happy I spotted a plot at 8/1 so thats all you can do. Ellison's flat horses are woefully out of form which has just been confirmed with his 2 other fancied horses who ran after Pelmanism running no races at all. Although its purely speculation, if it came to light Pelmanism ran 2nd despite there being a small issue in the yard with the flat horses it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

rossom

Johner wrote: »

Tempo Du Camp was fatally injured in the maiden hurdle.

Saw him looking like he had a broken leg in the background at one of the flights but sad that its true. RIP

Depp

unlucky in the end but pulled a tidy each way profit...great shouts lads

jimjamcos

UrbanSea wrote: »

I like Sherika in the 2.55 at Limerick tomorrow.

Hoping for odds of at least 10/1. Still a maiden under rules after 17 runs and a rating of 80 tomorrow you would be forgiven for assuming she's useless but she's been showing a bit lately to suggest she'd be well up for winning off a lowly mark like this. Hadn't shown a lot until a very good run in a 2 and a half mile chase at Bangor back in May, beaten six and a half lengths by the Disengager off a mark of 92. The form of that race is very good, with the winner winning off a mark of 105 that day, but he has since won 3 times (including a Listed handicap chase) and is now rated 141. The runner up that day has subsequently won by 14 lengths off a ten pound higher mark as well, and even the sixth won since though off an 11lb lower mark, but he was 35+ lengths behind Sherika. That was a very good run that day given that it may have been a bit short for her on goodish kind of ground(won a point)

Unsurprisingly ran poorly next time out in a Galway Novice chase, but did run one of the best races of her career next time out over an extended 2 and a half miles at Killarney in a heavy ground handicap chase, finishing just a length behind the Bishop's Lane off a mark of 92 (third won since, fifth is a dual winner subsequently,seventh runner up too).

The next two runs don't look as good, particularly the one at Listowel, but she ran ok last time out at Punchestown behind Highdownhill off a mark of 95. She travelled well for most of the way and went second just before the straight (did go to 2/1 in running from an sp of around 23), but weakened, finishing 32 lengths in sixth. While she won a point, it was on yielding ground and it's possible that 3 miles on heavy going just stretches her. Again, the form of her last race is very good, the winner won a decent handicap at Punchestown next time out off a ten pound higher mark, the second, who I had backed day, was runner up in that race the year before and was well handicapped, though hasn't ran since. The third won a good race last week off a 5 pound higher mark. The biggest question is whether she'll continue her good form switched back to hurdles, but off a mark of 80 and off a lowly weight of 11-2, not taking into account Barry O'Neill's five pound claim ( good rider) she has no excuses not to go well. Happy New Year is sure to be a short fav, but she had a tough race at the weekend on similarly bad ground and is probably worth opposing on balance, even if this race really does look to be lacking strength in depth

Hard luck lad! Good effort!

rossom

Very unlucky US! Deserved to win.

NaiveMelodies

Unlucky guys, 2 harsh seconds. Some of these write-ups are outstanding, seriously top class analysis.

UrbanSea

Thanks lads