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Will Dublin Bus remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin?

  • 26-11-2012 1:05am
    #1
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    lxflyer has brought up this question in at least two threads, but it might be an interesting thread of its own...
    lxflyer wrote: »
    ...As I've posted elsewhere, the reality is that the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin for the foreseeable future even with LUAS BXD and the two BRT routes. That is not going to change, and ideas need to be built around that premise.

    As far as I can find or establish quickly, here's the passenger trips per year on Dublin Bus:

    1996 = 185.5
    1997 = 187.9
    1998 = 189.5
    1999 = 193
    2000 = 185.7
    ...
    2007 = 148
    2008 = 139
    2009 = ?
    2010 = 119
    2011 = 117
    2012 = 114 (Dublin Bus estimate)

    So, by the end of this year -- according to Dublin Bus estimates -- the amount of trips taken will have fallen 61% in just 12 years. The CSO shows that modal share is down around 10% between 2006 and 2011.

    But if Luas BXD and the two BRT lines were in places, you think standard buses will hold their dominance in any meaningful way? We're talking about BRT lines which would to some extent or another replace standard buses on key routes, including the routes to town from Blanchardstown, UCD, and the Malahide Road.

    Another question: Is it wrong to be looking at public transport in isolation of cheaper and more sustainable modes of transporting people, ie walking and cycling? Here's what the modal share looks like in the Netherlands:

    230170.JPG

    Source: Cycling in the Netherlands report by the Dutch department Transport, Public Works and Water Management

    While the bus' modal share is down around 10% or 12,169 users since 2006, cycling is up 26% or 8,000 people.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,815 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    There are two separate questions here.

    1. Will buses be the dominant form of public transport?

    2. Will Dublin Bus be the dominant form of public transport?

    Cycling and walking make a difference for short distances for sure. But for longer distances, they can't make that much impact. The problem is that a lot of journeys in Dublin are longer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,288 ✭✭✭✭LXFlyer


    Quite correct Antoin - in my other posts I said "bus" - I did not specify Dublin Bus and would certainly like to clarify that point.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,790 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    What are the figures between 2000 and 2007? Did the drastic drop coincide with the economic downturn or did it occur during the boom?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,779 ✭✭✭Carawaystick


    AngryLips wrote: »
    What are the figures between 2000 and 2007? Did the drastic drop coincide with the economic downturn or did it occur during the boom?

    Maybe the two tram lines opening changed the bus user mix


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,790 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    Maybe the two tram lines opening changed the bus user mix

    The Luas carries something like 27m passengers a year so doesn't even account for half the drop in DB passenger figures assuming (an unlikely) 100% modal shift.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    As I also said in the opening post: The CSO shows that modal share is down around 10% between 2006 and 2011. That counts all bus services.

    But on Dublin Bus: Given the drop was from nearly 190m to 115m trips per year in about 12 or so years, is anybody running buses coming close to picking up the slack in the areas covered Dublin Bus?

    Re distances, the Greater Dublin Area isn't a million miles away from the Netherlands (nationally, it would be far different than some cities). With the new methods the CSO used last year in the census (they asked for start and end point rather than distance of commutes), we should have the most comprehensive data yet soon, but going by some of the DTO's 2006 survey data:

    [URL="https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/5842/230183.JPG[/IMG][/URL]

    More data here: http://cyclingindublin.com/myths-distances/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,288 ✭✭✭✭LXFlyer


    AngryLips wrote: »
    What are the figures between 2000 and 2007? Did the drastic drop coincide with the economic downturn or did it occur during the boom?

    While there was a drop associated with LUAS, the main drop as far as I am aware happened alongside the economic downturn.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,815 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The drop from 190m to 112m appears to be largely accounted for by the greater availability of motor cars.

    There are no private bus companies or anybody else mopping up the difference.

    I am told that at one point the Dublin Bus (or its predecessor CIE) were doing over 250m passengers per year, but I do not have any figures.

    It is a bit off-topic, but it is hard to overstate the decline that has occurred in public transport in Dublin in our lifetimes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,288 ✭✭✭✭LXFlyer


    Monument, you are continually making posts suggesting that there is slack, in other words that there is insufficient capacity/frequency. Where are you deriving this from?

    I'd make the point that numbers fell sharply before any changes in the network/routes/frequency were made.

    There was in fact a significant amount of overcapacity that the Network Direct project was designed to address, by focussing frequency on the principal routes on each QBC, reducing capacity where bus routes were carrying significant amounts of thin air and eliminating duplication of bus routes where possible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,790 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    Anecdotally, I sometimes get the 40 or 123 in the mornings and I'm surprised to see both busses, at a point relatively close to the city centre so near the end point of most rush hour journeys, to only be half full with seating available upstairs or on both decks.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,258 ✭✭✭✭Losty Dublin


    The drop from 190m to 112m appears to be largely accounted for by the greater availability of motor cars.

    There are no private bus companies or anybody else mopping up the difference.

    I am told that at one point the Dublin Bus (or its predecessor CIE) were doing over 250m passengers per year, but I do not have any figures.

    It is a bit off-topic, but it is hard to overstate the decline that has occurred in public transport in Dublin in our lifetimes.

    Three other factors to allow for the dip in numbers.
    • Irish Rail has seen a massive expansion in its suburban routes in Dublin. Two Dart extensions have opened while all 4 suburban corridors have seen improved services citywide, most notably on the Maynooth line.
    • Companies such as Aircoach have made indents on airport and some other DB traffic.
    • The amount of taxis on the street of Dublin has about quadrupled since 2000 and has made it more viable as a means of traffic given enhanced availability than in the past.
    While not primary reasons, they will have all taken a considerable amount of traffic from Dublin Bus over the last 12 years.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭Solair


    Unemployment and emigration would quite likely also have a part to play in this. There are just fewer people commuting at present. You can see that in the way the DART and Luas are a lot quieter than they were at the peak of teh boom.

    Also, the M50 upgrade has made commuting by car a lot more feasible than it was during the bad old days.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,815 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The population of Dublin is actually expanding, not contracting.

    Dublin Suburban rail including DART carried 23m in 2001. It carried 27m in 2010. This is hardly a massive expansion, certainly not numbers-wise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,166 ✭✭✭enda1


    Surely there the also fact that there is more high-density accommodation and a greatrer tendancy for the younger generation to live more centrally than our parents generation looking for their lillte piece of suburbia. So busses become redundant for many people in that regard. Then in the evening, taxis have become relatively cheaper and more available too.

    I don't know the relevance of these factors but as with most things, I guess its a combination of many little things.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    Also more people taking advantage of broadband and working from home.

    Exactly what I'm doing right now.

    As enda1 said, lots of different things:

    - Passengers switched to Luas
    - Passengers switched to DART
    - More people living in the city center (walking)
    - More people working from home
    - More people cycling
    - More people driving


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    The actual drop in bus use (12,169) as recorded between the censuses in 2006 and 2011 corresponds closely to the increase in bicycle use (8,139). Note: I'm not saying the link is correct, at least not 100% so. The overall decline in commuters isn't as large as you might think (2,816).

    Nothing else moved as much as bus and bicycle use in actual figures, expect car passengers which increased by 9,062 (car drivers declined by 3,228).

    Walking increased by a little more than 1,000. Motorcycle use declined by about 2,000. Van use was recorded for the first time at 17,395, apparently taking a chunk out of the 'other' heading (was 43,352 and now 13,449).

    It's worth saying that the 'not stated' header increased by a notable 8,735 -- people who are not sure what mode they mostly use? Was the question any different than to 2006?

    I'm not qualified, or maybe more so: I don't have the time or resources to look at the figures further. But I can say: This is just between 2006-2011, and the mid to longer term view is clearly more important in many ways.

    I guess my main point here is the bus decline was not matched with massive declines in other modes and some modes increased.

    Solair wrote: »
    Unemployment and emigration would quite likely also have a part to play in this. There are just fewer people commuting at present. You can see that in the way the DART and Luas are a lot quieter than they were at the peak of teh boom.

    Also, the M50 upgrade has made commuting by car a lot more feasible than it was during the bad old days.

    Between 2006 and 2011, numbers who mainly use each mode, from the census:

    Co Dublin|Bus|All rail
    Actual decline|12,169|203
    Percentage decline|10%|0.40%
    Modal share percentage decline|9.37%|0.02%

    lxflyer wrote: »
    Monument, you are continually making posts suggesting that there is slack, in other words that there is insufficient capacity/frequency. Where are you deriving this from?

    I'd make the point that numbers fell sharply before any changes in the network/routes/frequency were made.

    There was in fact a significant amount of overcapacity that the Network Direct project was designed to address, by focussing frequency on the principal routes on each QBC, reducing capacity where bus routes were carrying significant amounts of thin air and eliminating duplication of bus routes where possible.

    There is slack in the QBC network, especially off-peak and at weekends, although Dublin Bus might not be able to capitalise on it for a large number of reasons including its damaged brand and the poor attitude in this country towards carrying children (I mean general attitude, not one from the company).

    I'm not surprised that people were leaving Dublin Bus before network direct, the service is well known to be infrequent, unpredictable, and slow (I think the slow image is untrue for bus speed but that's made up by walking time at one or both ends of the bus trip and the waiting time which is the infrequent problem again). That's not to mention (infrequent but notable) issue like my wife had such as half full buses not stopping when she's trying to get to work or home late at night (once when pregnant), and other issues such as a sometimes laxed approach to somebody smoking (including, once, a crack pipe).

    AngryLips wrote: »
    Anecdotally, I sometimes get the 40 or 123 in the mornings and I'm surprised to see both busses, at a point relatively close to the city centre so near the end point of most rush hour journeys, to only be half full with seating available upstairs or on both decks.

    At rush hour you can sometimes get half full trams on the red line but the tram before and after it will be jammed packed. The person who gets the tram in the middle does not see the other trams -- it's a problem with anecdotal information.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,580 ✭✭✭✭Victor


    monument wrote: »
    As far as I can find or establish quickly, here's the passenger trips per year on Dublin Bus:

    1996 = 185.5
    1997 = 187.9
    1998 = 189.5
    1999 = 193
    2000 = 185.7
    ...
    2007 = 148
    2008 = 139
    2009 = ?
    2010 = 119
    2011 = 117
    2012 = 114 (Dublin Bus estimate)

    They may have changed how they were counting passengers between 2000 and 2003.

    The rest of the years, that I can determine.

    Year Passenger trips (millions)
    1996 185.5
    1997 187.9
    1998 189.5
    1999 193.0
    2000 185.7 134 according to 2004 report
    2001 growth
    2002 145.7
    2003 149.0 up 2.3%
    2004 149.0 flat
    2005 146.0
    2006 146.0
    2007 148.0
    2008 139.0
    2009 128.3
    2010 119.0
    2011 117.0
    2012 114.0 (Dublin Bus estimate)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭KD345


    Considering the current economic situation, I think the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin. Whether Dublin Bus continues to be the main player is really up to the NTA. Once the fare structure in Dublin is sorted out, I don't think passengers will care what bus operator they use.

    A lot has changed since 1999. 12 years ago there was no Luas, the road network was not as good, and the city was not as big as it is now.

    I think one major factor which caused many to switch to cars was how the city developed. The planning was pretty awful, with large housing developmens being built in areas without any thought to public transport. Areas like Adamstown, Ongar, Citywest, Leopardstown etc. all opened with residents moving in and having no choice to buy a car. Of course, this was at a time when people had cash to spend on a car, or at least get a bank loan without much hassle.

    Dublin Bus found it hard to keep up with the pressure for buses in these areas. The fleet expanded greatly between 2000-2005 to try cope with demand. Despite this, the lack of joined up thinking meant it took years for a dedicated decent bus service to reach places like Belarmine and Adamstown. In the meantime, people had switched to using cars.

    I believe another failure has been the lack of orbital routes across the city. Right through the noughties, and still to this day, there was a belief that all frequent bus services should just go to or through the city centre. Despite areas like Leixlip, Swords, Citywest, Grange Castle and Sandyford now employing thousands of people and all having good access to the M50, there was no recognition of this and people who before commuted into town now found their company or work being out of the city and had no option but to drive.

    The OP asks about the future, and I do believe that the bus will play an important role. As great as Luas and Dart are, they still don't penetrate the areas of Dublin like the bus does. I also don't think the country will be flush with cash in the near future to develop any major rail project or BRT, so with that in mind, it will take joined up planning and determination to ensure that the bus continues to be a good alternative to the car. One big test for this will be the construction of Luas towards Broombridge. This will impact greatly on buses in the city and the thousands of passengers who use them. The city council, NTA, RPA and Dublin Bus need to get this project right without too much impact.

    In order for the bus to succeed in the future, it needs to be affordable and interact seamlessly with other modes of transport. The days of deciding whether to take the bus or train or tram are gone. Operators need to view passengers as taking a journey rather than their journey. This is where the NTA and Leap need to come into play. Buses need to be frequent, at least on core routes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,790 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    KD345 wrote: »
    Considering the current economic situation, I think the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin.

    I'm not sure about this. What Luas has shown is that where you replace a bus route with a rail-based solution you get increased ridership. In fact, the only bus route to come close to matching Luas passenger figures is the 46A.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 23,279 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    KD345 in the short to medium term, bus will remain dominant.

    However in the long term, when we hopefully get around to doing MN and DU and other rail projects, then I expect that in the long term (20 years) bus dominance will decline becoming more of a filler/support service to rail like it is in London.

    This is a good thing, a capital city should really be using rail as it's core public transport, not bus.

    A more interesting question is if Dublin Bus remain dominant for that period or will it be broken up / privatised or/and see more private operators use.

    I'm really surprised the NTA don't push DB, DART and Luas all to a tag-on/tag-off charge per km system like they have in Amsterdam. It really maximises integration and most importantly makes what bus operator you use pretty transparent.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,180 ✭✭✭KD345


    AngryLips wrote: »
    I'm not sure about this. What Luas has shown is that where you replace a bus route with a rail-based solution you get increased ridership. In fact, the only bus route to come close to matching Luas passenger figures is the 46A.

    You're correct, however my point is that with our current economic problems, we're probably not going to see any more Luas/Dart lines built for quite some time. This is why I believe the bus will continue to be the main player in Dublin's public transport in the future.

    Rather than look at individual routes, there are similar number carried along the Lucan QBC, N11 and Swords Road as there is on either Luas line.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,288 ✭✭✭✭LXFlyer


    KD345 wrote: »
    Considering the current economic situation, I think the bus will remain the dominant form of public transport in Dublin. Whether Dublin Bus continues to be the main player is really up to the NTA. Once the fare structure in Dublin is sorted out, I don't think passengers will care what bus operator they use.

    A lot has changed since 1999. 12 years ago there was no Luas, the road network was not as good, and the city was not as big as it is now.

    I think one major factor which caused many to switch to cars was how the city developed. The planning was pretty awful, with large housing developmens being built in areas without any thought to public transport. Areas like Adamstown, Ongar, Citywest, Leopardstown etc. all opened with residents moving in and having no choice to buy a car. Of course, this was at a time when people had cash to spend on a car, or at least get a bank loan without much hassle.

    Dublin Bus found it hard to keep up with the pressure for buses in these areas. The fleet expanded greatly between 2000-2005 to try cope with demand. Despite this, the lack of joined up thinking meant it took years for a dedicated decent bus service to reach places like Belarmine and Adamstown. In the meantime, people had switched to using cars.

    I believe another failure has been the lack of orbital routes across the city. Right through the noughties, and still to this day, there was a belief that all frequent bus services should just go to or through the city centre. Despite areas like Leixlip, Swords, Citywest, Grange Castle and Sandyford now employing thousands of people and all having good access to the M50, there was no recognition of this and people who before commuted into town now found their company or work being out of the city and had no option but to drive.

    The OP asks about the future, and I do believe that the bus will play an important role. As great as Luas and Dart are, they still don't penetrate the areas of Dublin like the bus does. I also don't think the country will be flush with cash in the near future to develop any major rail project or BRT, so with that in mind, it will take joined up planning and determination to ensure that the bus continues to be a good alternative to the car. One big test for this will be the construction of Luas towards Broombridge. This will impact greatly on buses in the city and the thousands of passengers who use them. The city council, NTA, RPA and Dublin Bus need to get this project right without too much impact.

    In order for the bus to succeed in the future, it needs to be affordable and interact seamlessly with other modes of transport. The days of deciding whether to take the bus or train or tram are gone. Operators need to view passengers as taking a journey rather than their journey. This is where the NTA and Leap need to come into play. Buses need to be frequent, at least on core routes.

    A very good analysis.

    The only point that I'd add is that orbital routes are notoriously difficult to plan for the simple reason that unlike radial routes, where many people's trips coincide with one another, most orbital trips tend to have unique start and end places. That makes it all the more difficult to plan the routes as they need to serve major focus points, such as shopping centres, hospitals and industrial/business parks, in order to gain decent load factors. This leads to the common observation that they "go all over the place".

    That being said there certainly should have been a far greater effort to provide such routes.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    bk wrote: »
    ...bus dominance will decline becoming more of a filler/support service to rail like it is in London.

    Buses have dominance in London. The Tube:
    "With around three and a half million journeys made each day, on 11 lines serving 270 stations, we are now running more services than ever before on the 140-year-old network"- TfL

    And London Buses:
    "Approximately 7,500 iconic red buses carry more than six million passengers each weekday on a network serving all parts of Greater London." - TfL

    Bus use in London has increased over the last 10 years, along with cycling. More data here showing all rail services and all buses (although they bunch the limited tram services in London with bus and not rail): http://londontransportdata.wordpress.com/category/subject/modal-share/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,005 ✭✭✭✭AlekSmart


    monument wrote: »
    Buses have dominance in London. The Tube:
    "With around three and a half million journeys made each day, on 11 lines serving 270 stations, we are now running more services than ever before on the 140-year-old network"- TfL

    And London Buses:
    "Approximately 7,500 iconic red buses carry more than six million passengers each weekday on a network serving all parts of Greater London." - TfL

    Bus use in London has increased over the last 10 years, along with cycling. More data here showing all rail services and all buses (although they bunch the limited tram services in London with bus and not rail): http://londontransportdata.wordpress.com/category/subject/modal-share/

    Whilst London Buses tend to viewed by many as secondary to the Overground/Underground,the reality is they are supportive and,at times directly parallell to it.

    What makes London Buses so different to Dublin is the vast amount of centrally and locally funded support poured into it.

    Added to this is the reality that Transport for London really is a coherent and forward thinking Public Transport Organization,but it has to be borne in kind that it is omnipotent in all transport matters London wide,not just buses.

    For example,the introduction of Lord Mayor Ken Livingstons original Congestion Charge Zone was coupled with 300 new buses on CC zone routes to facilitate substantial frequency improvements and route re-alignments.

    It is highly unlikely that,without an insurrection,Dublin could ever see the type of inter-agency cooperation and shared-goals which tend to allow London's Public Transport to function as it does.

    However it is still worth considering the effect that Local Taxation has on the issue,as without some form of ring-fenced funding not very much will happen.


    Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    Charles Mackay (1812-1889)



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭CIE


    There are two separate questions here.
    1. Will buses be the dominant form of public transport?
    2. Will Dublin Bus be the dominant form of public transport?
    Cycling and walking make a difference for short distances for sure. But for longer distances, they can't make that much impact. The problem is that a lot of journeys in Dublin are longer.
    If the political situation in Ireland would end the conflation of "public transport" with "mass transport", it's certainly plausible that fixed-route bus transport would remain dominant as a mass transport mode. But if the emphasis remains on "public", then DB will dominate by default, unless of course everything reverts to just plain old CIE again and then the "semi-state company" will obviously default to being the dominant force. The political machine is no longer working on increasing the number of urban railways in Dublin, nor is it giving any thought to allowing fully private concerns to build same, so no competition in that sphere.

    Certainly there aren't any moves towards pedal-powered buses in Dublin, although they do exist some places...
    busycle1_cQhGE_69.jpgbike-bus_1_87Mze_69.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,080 ✭✭✭Vic_08


    monument wrote: »
    Buses have dominance in London. The Tube:
    "With around three and a half million journeys made each day, on 11 lines serving 270 stations, we are now running more services than ever before on the 140-year-old network"- TfL
    And London Buses:
    "Approximately 7,500 iconic red buses carry more than six million passengers each weekday on a network serving all parts of Greater London." - TfL
    Bus use in London has increased over the last 10 years, along with cycling. More data here showing all rail services and all buses (although they bunch the limited tram services in London with bus and not rail): http://londontransportdata.wordpress.com/category/subject/modal-share/

    Sorry, but your conclusion based on that data is seriously flawed, that is the problem with just looking at simplistic figures without context.

    Yes there are more bus "journeys" per day than Tube but that is only a small part of the whole story.

    It does not include the National Rail network which provides most of the rail services to South London (only 30 of the 270 LU stations are south of the Thames) and a number of trunk routes across the rest of London.

    It also does not define what these journeys are, average journey lengths by bus in London are far shorter than rail/tube/DLR (and far shorter than Dublin Bus) and long single bus commutes are relatively uncommon with rail taking the vast majority of that traffic.

    The fare structures also promote short bus journeys both as standalone journeys and as connections to/from trunk rail routes as for the vast majority using travelcards and oyster additional bus journeys are free.

    Also skewing the figures is that all under 16s and under 18s in education living in London get unlimited free bus use but have to pay (child rate or 1/2 adult rate) on rail modes, so unsurprisingly they use the buses far more than rail. And in a somewhat familiar story there is a growing issue of apparent abuse of this scheme with adolescents using their free travel inappropriately.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    CIE wrote: »
    Certainly there aren't any moves towards pedal-powered buses in Dublin, although they do exist some places...

    No need for "bicycle buses", normal bicycles are more effective:

    person-capacity.gif



    Vic_08 wrote: »
    Sorry, but your conclusion based on that data is seriously flawed, that is the problem with just looking at simplistic figures without context.

    Yes there are more bus "journeys" per day than Tube but that is only a small part of the whole story.

    Sure, but I also pointed to a page full of data.

    Also, see this table is from this TLF report, my highlighting:

    230517.JPG

    I'm not undermining the important role rail plays in London, I'm just pointing out that buses carry more people -- even if not that much more people.

    From the link in my other post as quoted above:

    modal-share-trips1.png

    Vic_08 wrote: »
    Also skewing the figures is that all under 16s and under 18s in education living in London get unlimited free bus use but have to pay (child rate or 1/2 adult rate) on rail modes, so unsurprisingly they use the buses far more than rail.

    That's not so much something "skewing the figures" -- it's a clear policy decision and it seems like a good one given buses are much more suited to transporting people in the typical school-home distances.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,463 ✭✭✭CIE


    More biased "sources", eh?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,141 ✭✭✭Yakuza


    monument wrote: »

    2000 = 185.7
    2012 = 114 (Dublin Bus estimate)

    So, by the end of this year -- according to Dublin Bus estimates -- the amount of trips taken will have fallen 61% in just 12 years. The CSO shows that modal share is down around 10% between 2006 and 2011.

    Sorry to nitpick, but that statistic is incorrect, and vastly overstates the decline. Assuming the OP was referring to the 12 years between 2000 and 2012, then the fall in trips is (185.7 - 114/185.7) or by 39% (or it has declined to 61% of its 2000 figure.

    As per other the posts on this thread, the decline can be attributed to many factors; LUAS, increased car usage, emigration, more people living / working in areas not well served by public transport, not forgetting reduced numbers of buses as well. I'd be of the opinion that the cost differential between driving and taking the bus has decreased in that time period.

    On a personal note, I cycle to work 3-4 days a week (taking a bus the other 1 or two days, perhaps once a month I take the car if needed later) whereas back then I'd probably have taken the bus (had I been working in Ireland in 2000!). I've noticed a huge increase in the numbers of cyclists in the last few years as well, this would also be factor.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭strandroad


    bk wrote: »
    As enda1 said, lots of different things:

    - Passengers switched to Luas
    - Passengers switched to DART
    - More people living in the city center (walking)
    - More people working from home
    - More people cycling
    - More people driving

    Unemployment, i.e. fewer commutes.
    Less disposable income, i.e. fewer elective trips into town for shopping or hanging out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,815 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    Yakuza wrote: »
    Sorry to nitpick, but that statistic is incorrect, and vastly overstates the decline. Assuming the OP was referring to the 12 years between 2000 and 2012, then the fall in trips is (185.7 - 114/185.7) or by 39% (or it has declined to 61% of its 2000 figure.

    As per other the posts on this thread, the decline can be attributed to many factors; LUAS, increased car usage, emigration, more people living / working in areas not well served by public transport, not forgetting reduced numbers of buses as well. I'd be of the opinion that the cost differential between driving and taking the bus has decreased in that time period.

    The population has increased since 2000. The capacity of the bus system has increased as well, and the fleet is also far younger. GDP/GNP has increased in real terms. Increase in Luas usage + increase in Irish Rail usage still don't account for the massive difference.

    If some areas are not served in these circumstances, it is because the bus service has failed to serve them.

    Make no mistake, public transport in Dublin is in massive decline.

    The emergence of cycling is a result of this decline, not a cause.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,537 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    The emergence of cycling is a result of this decline, not a cause.

    No, I don't think so. I think a far greater reason for the rise of cycling is the realisation that it has so many benefits over every other form of transport for shorter trips. Faster*, vastly cheaper over a year, beneficial for your health, much more flexible and time efficient, no waiting 30 mins for buses or walking 10 mins to a stop.
    For every commute inside the m50 cycling should be prioritised by the government over everything else. The benefits to society and the individual cannot be underestimated. As the cost of fuel and running a car increases and with the never ending rise in PT fares to frankly ridiculous levels it'll only continue to grow


    *average traffic speed in the CC are what now; 16kph? vs an easy 24+ on the bike


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,790 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    Make no mistake, public transport in Dublin is in massive decline.

    The emergence of cycling is a result of this decline, not a cause.
    For every commute inside the m50 cycling should be prioritised by the government over everything else.

    - cycle to work scheme
    - Dublin bikes
    - investment in cycle infrastructure
    - promoting safe cycling
    - allowing bicycles on Dart and suburban services

    ...it's not perfect but I think Government has prioritised cycling and I think it is these policy measures that have resulted in more cyclists on the road ...and not any decline in DB passenger figures.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,064 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    There are vast areas of the city not well covered by cycle lanes... and if they want to do cycling properly there has to be a proper segregated solution away from car lanes if possible. Also, they need some cyclists designing the cycle lanes, to avoid dangerous nonsense like this.

    http://goo.gl/maps/VQVRU
    http://goo.gl/maps/U2PYk


    I'm not a cyclist, nor do I have any idea of a better way to do this, but there HAS to be.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 14,093 Mod ✭✭✭✭monument


    CIE wrote: »
    More biased "sources", eh?

    Err... what now?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,537 ✭✭✭✭Cookie_Monster


    There are vast areas of the city not well covered by cycle lanes... and if they want to do cycling properly there has to be a proper segregated solution away from car lanes if possible. Also, they need some cyclists designing the cycle lanes, to avoid dangerous nonsense like this.

    http://goo.gl/maps/VQVRU
    http://goo.gl/maps/U2PYk


    I'm not a cyclist, nor do I have any idea of a better way to do this, but there HAS to be.

    specific cycling infrastructure only serves to widen the gap perceived between motorists / road users and cyclists and the "us and them" mentality. Given the extremely poor design record Ireland has for cycle infrastructure it simply does not make sense to pump money into it. Sharing the roads is by far the best way to encourage cycling and putting money into ensuring roads have decent surfaces, wide lanes to allow sufficient space for all users and improving junctions is of far more benefit IMO.
    AngryLips wrote: »
    - cycle to work scheme
    - Dublin bikes
    - investment in cycle infrastructure
    - promoting safe cycling
    - allowing bicycles on Dart and suburban services

    ...it's not perfect but I think Government has prioritised cycling and I think it is these policy measures that have resulted in more cyclists on the road ...and not any decline in DB passenger figures.
    indeed it has somewhat but given the amount of money still pumped into other forms of transport cycling is still vastly under valued overall.
    Dublin bikes is still restricted to a very small area, bikes on trains is only outside of useful commuting times for most people and the promoting done in regards to cycle safety often misses the mark and focuses on stupid things like Hi Vis.


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