Sunday 25th November

rossom

Two for me in the Troytown tomorrow (2.25 Navan).

Tharawaat 25/1 & The Hard Hat 14/1

Write ups to come later but I cannot quite believe the price of Tharawaat!

sonnky

rossom wrote: »

Two for me in the Troytown tomorrow (2.25 Navan).

Tharawaat 25/1 & The Hard Hat 14/1

Write ups to come later but I cannot quite believe the price of Tharawaat!

Agree on Tharwaat. Will be 1lb lower than last winning mark taking, Jane Mangan's 7lb claim into account.

rossom

sonnky wrote: »

Agree on Tharwaat. Will be 1lb lower than last winning mark taking, Jane Mangan's 7lb claim into account.

He's a horse that goes extremely well fresh and Jane Mangan was the booking I wanted to see all week (even over Davy Russell) as I think the 7lb could be crucial and she is a fantastic pilot in my eyes. Last win came in absolutely bottomless ground up in Galway (only 6 of 19 finished) so he'll definitely handle the conditions. He'll sit prominent as well which is a big help in these massive fields.

the groutch

my one for tomorrow would be Wingtips in the 12:55
has no problems with the mud, has the benefit of experience by not winning on his first try as a novice, and escapes any penalties by never havign gotten his head in front, yet.
and ruby on board is a bonus

Slattsy

Cant see it being on lads, pissing all evening and can't see it stopping.

Here's hoping though.

the groutch

btw in the Troystown I'd be very interested in the 2nd reserve Miss Pepperpot for Fran Flood if it gets a run.

Colonel Sanders

Slattsy wrote: »

Cant see it being on lads, pissing all evening and can't see it stopping.

Here's hoping though.

I'm in Dublin & it's been raining all day

Also the case in Navan so?

rossom

Must say I am worried about it being on as well

hucklebuck

I agree on Tarawaat, Donnas Palm is also very interesting at a big price.

Navan Wins Places Heavy Wins Places
Tharawaat 3 2 0 4 4 0
Donnas Palm 6 5 0 4 2 2

I have slight concerns over both, Tharawaat has three runs at three miles twice he has been comprehensively beaten but on the plus side his win was on Heavy Ground in Navan. Donnas Palm has not won over further than 2m4 and it could go either way given the horses ability to handle heavy ground.

I wish this rain would **** off.

ft9

Dubs haven't much to be worried about. Up the steps with ye

rossom

2.25 Navan

Tharawaat 25/1 & The Hard Hat 14/1

Gordon Elliot's 7 year old Tharawaat is most definitely a horse to catch when fresh as I think he is a completely different animal on his first run back from a break and I really think he's going to run an absolutely massive race off his current mark of 139. A former Grade 3 winning hurdler Tharawaat has developed into a very nice chaser also and he has some very nice form to his name, most notably a lovely 6th in the Centenery Novices Listed race at Cheltenham off a mark of 137. He started off his campaign last season on the back of 170 day absence when bolting up in pretty facile fashion at Galway over 2m6f in what looked a very competitive 19 runner affair in October last year when scoring by 7L under top weight of 11-10. In bottomless ground (so bad was the ground that 13 of the runners were pulled up) Tharawaat sat prominent throughout the contest and under although under the welter burden off top weight he took up the running at 2 out and pretty much sauntered up the hill in what was a very impressive performance. As such, he was stepped into a Grade 2 Chase at Clonmel over 2m4f when performing with a lot of credit over a trip probably a little too short when finishing a 14L beaten 3rd behind the very talented pairing of Tranquil Sea and Psycho.

Tharawaat's next two chase starts were disappointing off marks of 141 and 140 (including this race last year) and reverting back to hurdles didn't help on his 2nd last start. Tharawaat's final start game in the Grand National off a mark of 141 and he was most certainly not disgraced finishing a 22L beaten 8th. He's been absent since then and there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Tharawaat is a much better horse when arriving at the racecourse fresh. He's back down to a mark of 139 and given that he romped home off a mark of 133 I definitely feel that he is capable of running a very big race off his current mark. Put in as the top weight here, I was absolutely delighted to see the fantastic 7lb claimer Jane Mangan booked as I think her claim getting him down to a racing weight of 11-2 could be crucial. I am a massive fan of young Miss Mangan and I think she is going all the way to the top (check out her win on Beef to the Heels at Down Royal if you need convincing). She has only had 3 starts over fences which is a bit of a negative but hopefully she will be ok. Gordon Elliott is clearly a fan of hers as well with the pair holding a 2-2 record when teaming up and he has also booked her for a Grade 2 hurdle earlier on the card. At only 7 years of age, Tharawaat certainly is open to improvement and coming here on the back of a 225 day absence is a big positive as he loves racing fresh. With 25s available in the bookies and 37s available on the exchange I can't quite believe Tharawaat's price is so huge and I think he'll come in for a fair bit of support tomorrow. This C+D winner represents the bang in form Gordon Elliot stable and although he also trains the current favourite Romanesco and although Tharawaat needs to defy a lot of trends I'm confident of a big showing from this gelding and if The Hard Hat can't win lets hope he can.

The other horse that I fancy to run a very big race is Colm Murphy's 8 year old The Hard Hat. He's one of my favourite horses in training and is the only horse I've won on 3 times at double figure prices and he is a horse that I know very, very well. The Hard Hat had a good season last year running very well on 3 of his starts with his only poor effort coming on his reappearance (was in the race that Tharawaat ran) but he has always needed a run to blow away the cobwebs after a break. The Hard Hat's 2nd run back last year was a much improved performance as he won in fine style over 2m6f at Punchestown on soft ground in November last year off a mark of 114. After getting slightly outpaced when the race started hotting up, The Hard Hat stayed on resolutely and he was flying at the finish to get up by 1L and he was going away at the finish. The form of that race is pretty strong and it was a very likeable effort. His next start came at Fairyhouse over 3m1f on New Years day when he ran a very good 3rd off a mark of 120 on soft/heavy ground. He was beaten that day by a facile winner in the shape of In Great Form who I think looks a very progressive sort worth following and who ran an excellent 3rd in the Punchestown Grand National Trial off a 12lb highear mark in a race that has very strong form. Moreover, the 4th Paddy Pub has won since off a 3lb higher mark to solidify the form further. The Hard Hat's final start of last season came in February when running a fantastic 5th in the Grade A Leopardstown Handicap off his current mark of 121 beaten 12L at the end of January. In a race that hot, I think he definitely would have found the 2m5f a little on the sharp side and that race has worked out very nicely on paper. The winner Seabass won on his next start before running a fantastic 3rd in the Grand National off an 18lb higher mark. Furthermore, the 2nd Out Now finished an excellent 2nd in the Irish Grand National off a 3lb higher mark and it was a very nice performance.

The Hard Hat was off the track for 275 days before making a lovely reappearance in the same race he made his seasonal debut in 2011 when shaping extremely well when finishing a 7L beaten 4th at Galway last month. Held up at the rear of the field, The Hard Hat travelled very kindly throughout the race and after jumping the final flight he was ride in behind the leaders only a few lengths off the front. Turning into the home straight, Denis Hogan asked for The Hard Hat to pick up but he got very tired in the heavy ground after his long absence as he plugged on up the home straight at the one pace. For a horse who will have most definitely needed that run, I was very happy with his effort and he is going to strip a hell of a lot fitter for that race and he should be spot on for this. Still only an 8 year old, The Hard Hat is definitely still open to some improvement but trust me when I say he is more than capable of winning off his current mark. The excellent Robbie Power, who has built up a great rapport with this gelding, gets back on board today and I'm delighted the partnership is resumed as he gets a great tune out of him and gave him 3 rides of the highest calibre when partnering him to victory on all his chasing wins. In addition to a mark that I think is within his scope of ability, he has a lovely racing weight of 10-5 which could prove very significant in such testing ground (also 9 of the last 10 winners of the Troytown have carried 10-9 or less). A previous winner at the course, I can guarantee you that Colm Murphy has him absolutely spot on for this and the ground or trip won't be a problem for him at all. Although I will win a few hundred quid less (and I'm sure anyone who backs the pair will hope Tharawaat wins!), I will be willing The Hard Hat to win this over Tharawaat tomorrow as really deserves to win a contest of this magnitude and I will be over the moon if he can land this sizeable prize.

I've also done a Reverseforecast on the pair and would love if they were the first two home.

Colonel Sanders

Meeting goes ahead

UrbanSea

Think Rule the World is a big price in the novice. Was 8/1 last night still think 6/1 is fair. Troytown is a tricky won, I'd probably go Jadanli each way at 25/1 didn't run bad behind Dancing Tornado last time and his run in the Theystes was ok. Won't be backing them though have a county final to go and win $$$$$

Gautama

That fog could bring things to an early close.

hucklebuck

I have gone for:

EW Megatron
Rupert Lamb 2:55
Majestic Oak 1:55
Miley Shah 12:55
Fickle Fortune 3:25
Donnas Palm 2:25
Liverpool

That's about 130,000/1


EW
Tharawaat 2:55

sonnky

Miley Shah here!

Gautama

Could be worth doing a Caughoo in the Troytown.

hucklebuck

What a load of bollox, Miley going well at the front going into the fog comes out of the fog not being asked a question at the back of the field.

3ndahalfof6

TROYTOWN 2:25

MISTER FIRST 25/1 should cope with conditions, I would be guessing the jockey will be feeling bullish with the weight drop, distance might be the only concern but I think it will get there.

CRASH 20/1 should like the ground and trip, good jockey on board, I think will be close.

JADANLI 25/1 will get the trip but not sure about the ground, if taking to the ground could run a big race.

This is a very tough race to call, I am very tempted not to have a bet, but who am I kidding.

Slattsy

Jesus i havnt got a scooby what to back in the Troytown.

Faltering Fullback

hucklebuck

Thought Majestic Oak was going to collar the leader, tough giving weight away on that ground.

hawkhead

Ballyburke in the Troytown for me.

Looks like this race has been the plan for a while

Nulty

Jadanli and Tharawaat

hucklebuck

I did not realise you could use your hand if you can drop your whip. Tofino was very game there, thought Mc Coy was coming to mug him.

Oscars Well.

Great ride by Russell, even lost his whip rounding the last.

sonnky

Thought Miley Shah may be worth a go because all his decent recent form was on heavy! His bad run last time was on good. Hard to know what next now!

sonnky

Good Beginners chase on now at Navan, Rupert Lamb is worth a punt, Mullins has generally had the ones he got from Wylie ready on the first go after an absence. Sword of Destiny might find it too short.

hucklebuck

Really getting deluded with racing, Ruby made no effort to put Rupert Lamb into the race and nothing will happen about it :mad:

Glad Alderwood got up, that could have been awful.

Oscars Well.

Interesting ride by Nina there. Looked like she never got the horse into it

hucklebuck

Well I certainly pick them today :rolleyes:

Miley Shah was travelling well going in to the fog and I guess Lord Lucan did something and when he came out of it he was not being asked a question and out the back.

Rupert Lamb was never put in to it for whatever reason:mad:

Fickle Fortune was very odd, sure she could have done a lot better.

Either way I hope this rain stops today and the ground gets a chance to dry out for next weekend.

Motivator

Oscars Well. wrote: »

Interesting ride by Nina there. Looked like she never got the horse into it

Very interesting ride, I thought Fickle Fortune was going to hack up. Cruised upsides the winner a furlong out & was going much the better then the eventual winner just got away far too easily for my liking. I'm not talking through my pocket because I didn't have a bet in the race but I did think she gave the horse an odd ride. I was thinking that it could just be down to the horse & that it has to be ridden calmly but I saw it finish 2nd in Galway last time out & it was given a different ride. What do you guys think?