Friday 23rd Of November

ste2010

Too tired to go into any detail :cool:

I fancy Ferdy Murphys horse hollo ladies in the first @ 9/2 in Haydock tomorrow. Has been off the track a while but decent form and Ferdy Murphys horses are going quite well at the moment.

For the 66th time Im backing Kumbeshwar...but this time I'm sure he will win..opposing domtaline..he should be a little too classy for him and others and I think 2/1 is pretty reasonable..

rossom

ste2010 wrote: »

For the 66th time Im backing Kumbeshwar...but this time I'm sure he will win..opposing domtaline..he should be a little too classy for him and others and I think 2/1 is pretty reasonable..

I thought it was very interesting that Choc Thornton goes to Ascot as opposed to riding Kumbeshwar at Haydock. Unless Fair Trade is an absolute machine (has the potential to be) then I don't think its a great sign for Kubeshwar

klairondavis

I'm not entirely surprised that Thornton is going to Ascot. I think Hutchinson is a superior rider to him these days anyway. King and Thornton have had quite a fall from grace over the past few years. It's not so long ago that the likes of My Way De Solzen, Voy Por Ustedes and Katchit were running in the big races but he barely has one Grade 1 quality horse in his yard now.

It's a very good card at Haydock tomorrow. Looking forward to the two novice hurdles. I presume the ground will be very testing.

ste2010

rossom wrote: »

I thought it was very interesting that Choc Thornton goes to Ascot as opposed to riding Kumbeshwar at Haydock. Unless Fair Trade is an absolute machine (has the potential to be) then I don't think its a great sign for Kubeshwar

Thanks rossom..good point..I'm hoping its what he's riding on Saturday has him where he is for convenience purposes..is there much of a proximity between haydock and ascot?

dave3004

It's not said out loud but everyone thinks it...... Alan King has dropped away tamely.

He was the 3rd top trainer a few years ago behind Nicholls and Henderson.

Now Pipe, McCain, Longsdon and others have passed him.

I never back his horses. And its working out well for me. He's still got one or two good ones though.

Montbazon, Hold on Julio off the top of my head.

Motivator

dave3004 wrote: »

It's not said out loud but everyone thinks it...... Alan King has dropped away tamely.

He was the 3rd top trainer a few years ago behind Nicholls and Henderson.

Now Pipe, McCain, Longsdon and others have passed him.

I never back his horses. And its working out well for me. He's still got one or two good ones though.

Montbazon, Hold on Julio off the top of my head.

I have to say I agree about King, couldn't back a horse of his with any confidence - apart from Medermit, something about the horse keeps dragging me back in.

Goldcupfav

dave3004 wrote: »

It's not said out loud but everyone thinks it...... Alan King has dropped away tamely.

He was the 3rd top trainer a few years ago behind Nicholls and Henderson.

Now Pipe, McCain, Longsdon and others have passed him.

I never back his horses. And its working out well for me. He's still got one or two good ones though.

Montbazon, Hold on Julio off the top of my head.

Alan King has won £731,380 in win prize money in the last 12 months alone.
Donald McCain has won £969,638
David Pipe has won £587,587
Charlie Longsdon has won £279,261

Hardly that far behind when you consider Ile Der Re won McCain 150K on the flat in the last 12 months.
He still has some seriously good horses in his yard. Balder Success, Grumeti, Invictus, Medermit, Montbazon, Raya Star, Smad Place, Vendor, Walkon. Couple of decent novices in Call me a star and Handazan. To say he has dropped away tamely is madness. He may not have the firepower of a Nicholls or Henderson but he's still one of the best trainers around.

ste2010

I have to agree with GCF here lads..I think he has some serious horses and I was sure he was a lot close to favouritism than ever before to have trained the most winners at the festival this year. I will say one thing though..his decisions with some of his seems to baffle me..example lovcen carrying top weight in 2 competitive handicap renewals as his first and second race of the season. This is the same horse that bet fingal bay in aintree..why would they out him in a handicap carrying top weight at his age...I was disappointed and lost! Who knows what raya star might of and might still become..was he up 19lbs on his most recent win since the same race last year..he seems to be infatuated with handicaps and weight allocations he doesn't stop about it :-)

dave3004

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Alan King has won £731,380 in win prize money in the last 12 months alone.
Donald McCain has won £969,638
David Pipe has won £587,587
Charlie Longsdon has won £279,261

Hardly that far behind when you consider Ile Der Re won McCain 150K on the flat in the last 12 months.
He still has some seriously good horses in his yard. Balder Success, Grumeti, Invictus, Medermit, Montbazon, Raya Star, Smad Place, Vendor, Walkon. Couple of decent novices in Call me a star and Handazan. To say he has dropped away tamely is madness. He may not have the firepower of a Nicholls or Henderson but he's still one of the best trainers around.

The figures don't lie. Maybe I am wrong. But I would never back a King horse anymore..... Regardless. There's never any value. Horses are always short enough and I really don't like them.

Of the ones named above, 1 or 2 are decent.

I've time for Balder Succes, Grumeti & Montbazon but nothing else on that list.

Probably me with a chip on my shoulder or something but he was my favourite trainer about 4 years ago but not anymore.

rossom

12.55 Ascot

Shuh Shuh Gah 35/1 Betfair

No price up at present in the bookies but trading at 35/1 on Betfair and I think this 5 year old looks a decent hurdling prospect who showed some pretty nice bumper form for Malcolm Jefferson and who now goes over obstacles for the first time for David Bridgwater. After running a nice 3rd on debut in March of this year, Shuh Shuh Gah ran in what has turned out to be a very hot bumper when finishing 3rd behind Nicky Richards very talented debutants Eduard and Duke of Navan when pulling 8L clear of the rest and conceding 7lb to both rivals. Those pair have since bolted up in a pair of Novice Hurdles with the latter getting beaten 3.5L in a Grade 2 Novice hurdle afterwards as well and in hindsight it was a really nice piece of form. Shuh Shuh Gah got off the mark on his 3rd time of asking when landing a bumper at Market Rasen on soft ground by 6L in decent fashion under top weight from a well backed (and pretty green) rival who has yet to be seen since. The 3rd (15L back) has won a Novice Hurdle since so its not awful form. On his last start for back in May under a penalty Shuh Shuh Gah came 2nd conceding 10lb to the winner when a beaten favourite back in May on his final start for Malcolm Jefferson. Although the winner has disappointed since, the 3rd Moscow Presents ran a nice debut over hurdles when finishing runner up to potentially very nice type of Nick Williams and again it isn't bad form. Since then this 5 year old who has joined the excellent David Bridgwater yard (same owners) to go hurdling and he looks a decent prospect. The step up in trip today looks sure to suit and Bridgwater is absolutely flying at present with 5 winners from his last 17 runners. Choc Thornton takes the ride and looks a very eye catching booking as he is 2-2 for the yard this year (2-3 overall) and I think this signifies that he has been going rather nicely at home for new connections. Although those at the head of the market looks well deserve to be their and look nice prospects, Shuh Shuh Gah looks very big at 35s on the exchanges and looks worth a small bet.

rossom

2.40 Ascot

All For Free 14/1

First of all, I would definitely recommend taking any double figure price about All For Free in the betting w/o Royales Charter market as he could easily smash this field as his latest win has been given a massive boost in form with the 2nd Shooting Jacket winning impressively at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham last weekend in a better race off a 6lb higher mark and given that Royales Charter is only 8lb higher and on the upgrade he could prove very well handicapped still. He falls into the category of too short to back (especially given his tendency to jump left handed) but could easily win so I'd advise anyone backing to take W/O fav at a double figure price if possible.

With regards to All For Free, this 6 year old is another having his stable debut for the David Bridgwater yard and I thought he looked very progressive for Martin Keighley towards last season. I'm keeping this relatively short as I'm wrecked. A decent hurdler and after 3 runs in Beginners/Novices Chases, he made a successful handicap debut over fences when bolting in off a mark of 110 Ascot last December to score by 11L when looking outpaced over 2m1f before forging well clear in the home straight. 5 days later and under a 7lb penalty he scored again in good fashion at Ludlow over 2m when he was sent to the front at 4 out (given he seemed outpaced previously) and he seemed to win with a great deal more in hand then the 2.5L winning margin suggests as his ears were pricked going over all the jumps as he scored comfortably. That race looks decent enough form. Upped another 7lb to a mark of his current mark of 124, All For Free ran a very eye catching 2nd over 2m at Sandown when (easily) beaten 7L by a very, very decent looking prospect in the shape of Hold Fast. Seemingly outpaced and dropping back from quite a long way back, he stayed on resolutely over the minimum trip to never be closer than at the finish. That form looks very strong with the short head beaten 3rd Tanks For That running a belter on his next start when finishing 2nd in the Johnny Henderson at the Cheltenham Festival and the form of those further back looks decent too.

On his 2nd last start for Martin Keighley back in January (2 weeks after other effort) he was sent off the 13/2 2nd favourite of the BetVictor Handicap Chase over an extended 2m5f and for one reason or another he barely went a yard that day off mark of 126 as he finished a well and early on beaten 7th. His last start for Keighley came in February of this year when he lost his action and was dismounted so you've clearly got to ignore that effort. He's now joined the excellent David Bridgwater who I feel can definitely improve what seemed a very progressive chaser earlier this year. He's off a mark of 124 which makes him seem well handicapped on his 2nd in a better race than this and although his record fresh is unproven Bridgwater is more than capable of readying one after an absence. Based on his 2 wins and staying on 2nd, 2m3f should definitely be more up his alley and the excellent Richard Johnson looks a very eye catching booking on what is his first start for the yard. With his trainer's chasers going particularly well at present (4-12 in the past 2 months) and at only 6 years old, I think All For Free still looks on a very good mark and at a course that he clearly goes well at I see him running a massive race if fully wound up. If not, I'd definitely recommend keeping an eye on him for the season as he will not be far off winning.

UrbanSea

Nothing I really fancy today but I will have a bet on Rhiannon 21.00 Dundalk 8/1(reserve)

Probably unlikely that she gets a run but I'll back her in case. I've been keeping an eye on her ever since she made a satisfactory debut here at Dundalk as a juvenile when keeping on into eighth on debut, finishig six lengths behind Coral Society(had been some money for her). She didn't strike me as a two year old so that was a promising run. Whilst she disappointed next two runs, she entered handicaps off a mark of 57 and again made eye catching headway over a mile on heavy going at Gowran on her first start at three, only beaten three lengths. Was going to back her next time out, this time over 11 furlongs at Dundalk,but she was a rotten price, having been backed heavily throughout the day from around 8/1 into 5/2 favourite off a mark of 54. Ran poorly that day, but was again heavily punted last time out at the Curragh over 9 furlongs off a mark of 52, being double digits in the morning before going off the 3/1 favourite. Again ran poorly, but suspicions are she is better than she has shown this season, and I go back to her debut run again which was full of promise. She(hopefully) races tonight in what looks a very weak rate, and is down to a rating of 50. She's stepped up to a mile and a half which should definitely suit, given she's by High Chaparral (usually takes time) and nearly all of her siblings had stamina in abundance, one being a winning hurdler, some of the others including being placed over a mile and three quarters and a mile and a half. She cost 34,000E as a yearling and it'd be disappointing if she couldn't win off this sort of mark should she get a run.

At a much bigger price, I though Surf's Up wouldn't be far from the placings at 20/1 should she put her best foot forward, though she isn't gauranteed to


Edit: ****e for some reason I thought she was first reserve, she's actually third. Very unlikely to go

Shane732

Clondaw Kaempfer looked very impressive last time out. Running today at 14:30 in Haydock at skinny odds.

Colonel Sanders

Shane732 wrote: »

Clondaw Kaempfer looked very impressive last time out. Running today at 14:30 in Haydock at skinny odds.

Nicholls sounds confident his can give it a run in his Betfair column

Doesn't sound hugely confident about Wilton Milan who runs against Gevrey Chambertain.

Really good days racing today

Nulty

Gonna have a few pennys on Brackloon High, Tenor Nivernais, Chesil Beach Boy and Arthurian Legend. Win only singles

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Nicholls sounds confident his can give it a run in his Betfair column

Doesn't sound hugely confident about Wilton Milan who runs against Gevrey Chambertain.

Really good days racing today

Ha, I would have thought it would have been the other way around!

Slattsy

Shane732 wrote: »

Ha, I would have thought it would have been the other way around!

Pipe thinks that Gevrey Chambertin is the dogs bollox.
He could be good. Very good.

faoile@n

ste2010 wrote: »

I have to agree with GCF here lads..I think he has some serious horses and I was sure he was a lot close to favouritism than ever before to have trained the most winners at the festival this year. I will say one thing though..his decisions with some of his seems to baffle me..example lovcen carrying top weight in 2 competitive handicap renewals as his first and second race of the season. This is the same horse that bet fingal bay in aintree..why would they out him in a handicap carrying top weight at his age...I was disappointed and lost! Who knows what raya star might of and might still become..was he up 19lbs on his most recent win since the same race last year..he seems to be infatuated with handicaps and weight allocations he doesn't stop about it :-)

The owner sponsored the race in Cheltenham and presumably wanted a runner.

Colonel Sanders

Many clouds gives Gevrey Chambertain's form a good boost there

Johner

Slattsy wrote: »

Pipe thinks that Gevrey Chambertin is the dogs bollox.
He could be good. Very good.

The horse he beat on his hurdling debut just won very nicely at Ascot.

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

The horse he beat on his hurdling debut just won very nicely at Ascot.

Snap!

rossom

For some reason I just don't think Gevrey Chambertain is going to be as good as everyone thinks. I don't have much to base this on barring my gut. I think he'll be below top class

rossom

Wouldn't give up on All For Free yet. Probably needed the spin

Johner

2nd race in a row that Gevrey Chambertain has drifted like a barge in the betting on won.

Nulty

Arthurian Legend disappointing
Tenor Nivernais tailed off last
Brackloon High goes down at the first

...:(

What will Chesil Beach Boy do?

Colonel Sanders

Johner wrote: »

2nd race in a row that Gevrey Chambertain has drifted like a barge in the betting on won.

*After timing alert*

Thank god for best odds, backed it at 15/8 this morning.

The extra winning will give me some ammo for Hidden Cyclone tomorrow if he's a price

Nulty

Chesil Beach Boy sent to the front. :rolleyes:

Stayed on well enough, might want a little further. Got out paced.

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

Arthurian Legend disappointing
QUOTE]

Im not backing a Hobbs trained runner over fences again !!
They never seems to jump with any fluidity and look damn right awkward over every fence.
Johnson probably doesnt help.

Slattsy

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

*After timing alert*

Thank god for best odds, backed it at 15/8 this morning.

The extra winning will give me some ammo for Hidden Cyclone tomorrow if he's a price

*After timing alert* :P

Colonel Sanders

Slattsy wrote: »

*After timing alert* :P

The after timing alert was aimed at me!!!!!!

Was just quoting Johner's post about it drifting!!!

Slattsy

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

The after timing alert was aimed at me!!!!!!

Was just quoting Johner's post about it drifting!!!

:pac:

I thought the 13/8 this morning was too short so i stayed awat from the race.
If i was in the bookies near the off and seen it drift like that i might have got on. But seeing as it was a big drift only small stakes for me, maybe 5k

rossom

5.10 Wolverhampton

Cool Kid 100/1

Very small bet but I think its interesting that Eoin Griffin brings his 4 year old over to England for his handicap debut. He had one start for Ger Lyons before refusing to enter the stalls twice but he raved about him on more than one occasion stating "Cool Kid is a lovely big horse who has a knee action so should handle soft ground. If he does he'll run very well. Same family as Frederick Engels"."I like Cool Kid alot but he gets claustrophobic in stalls". He left Lyons to join current connections for a pretty disappointing hurdling career but his new trainer seems to have gotten him over his stall issues as he ran well enough in a maiden LTO at Dundalk when giving his 3 year old rivals a bunch of weight. He makes his handicap debut here off a mark of 56 and gets in off bottom weight and although he hasn't shown the promise that Ger Lyons seemed the think he had in abundance his game will surely be handicapping. Griffin is 1-2 at Wolves (another more fancied runner later on) so I think its interesting he comes across the water for his handicap debut. Freddie Tylicki takes the ride and although he will more than likely be hopeless beaten he's worth a very small bet.

Colonel Sanders

Gevrey hot the magical ceiling price of 1,000 in play. McCain's was 1.01 to lay in running.

dawn run

I got word for big typhoon ew in the 8.30 this evening.

25/1 at present.


Also in the 9-25 dundalk. Nanto 5/1.

Jim Goldie its trainer is sending him over from scotland for this weak HC.Its droped to a rating well within the weights. this horse ran is group races and placed a few times. A lot better horse than what hes racing against.

dawn run

Bad day yesterday hope to make it back in the 3:20 Ascot
TOUBAB looks well handicapped on a mark of 143. I can see him being hard to beat.