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EPL Last Man Standing

  • 22-11-2012 1:51pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭


    Hey,

    I'm in a last man standing competition at work and we only started last week. I picked Man City last week so they're gone. The obvious choice is Man Utd at home to QPR this week but everyone else is gonna pick them and they might be best kept for a few weeks down the line.

    So would anyone recommend another choice??


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭Osmago


    Sunderland Vs West Bromwich
    Everton Vs Norwich City
    Man Utd Vs Queens Park Ra…
    Stoke City Vs Fulham
    Wigan Athletic Vs Reading
    Aston Villa Vs Arsenal
    Swansea City Vs Liverpool
    Southampton Vs Newcastle United
    Chelsea Vs Manchester City
    Spurs Vs West Ham


  • Registered Users Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    The first thing is to avoid picking away teams as, over the last 4 full seasons, excl Utd, City, Arsenal, & Chelsea, away teams have won only 22% of their matches (The 4 teams mentioned have actually won over 48% of their away matches if we ignore matches between those 4 sides)

    After that, the odds in football are incredibly accurate in predicting the outcome of games, in the long run. For example teams priced at 2/1 win about 33% of the team while teams priced at 4/6 will win approx 60% of the time and teams priced at 1/6 win about 86% of the time.

    So IMO the best thing to do is to check the odds of each home team winning and pick one of the shortest ones and hope that they do the business this weekend. The current odds (in general) for the home teams are

    Sunderland 6/4
    Everton 4/9
    Man Utd 1/6
    Stoke City 11/10
    Wigan Athletic 10/11
    Aston Villa 4/1
    Swansea City 5/2
    Southampton 6/4
    Chelsea 6/4
    Spurs 4/6

    In reality Man Utd are the obvious pick this week and maybe you should select a different week to go against the grain. You can't win if you're not in!

    However if you insist on keeping them for another week then I'd be inclined to pick Everton


  • Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭Osmago


    Cheers DB74, went with Man Utd anyway, hadn't the balls to take a chance on someone else!


  • Registered Users Posts: 57 ✭✭Osmago


    Right, down to the last 5. This wknd is a fairly daunting one to pick a winner.

    So far i've used Man City, Man Utd, Stoke, and Liverpool.

    Here are the fixtures, what do ye think???!!!

    Arsenal v West Brom
    Aston Villa v Stoke
    Southampton v Reading
    Sunderland v Chelsea
    Swansea v Norwich
    Wigan v QPR
    Man City v Man Utd
    Everton v Spurs
    West Ham v Liverpool
    Fulham v Newcastle


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,408 ✭✭✭ft9


    Chelsea. Should be full of confidence after getting the 1st win under Rafa midweek, scoring 6 against a struggling Sunderland.


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