EPL Last Man Standing

Osmago

Hey,

I'm in a last man standing competition at work and we only started last week. I picked Man City last week so they're gone. The obvious choice is Man Utd at home to QPR this week but everyone else is gonna pick them and they might be best kept for a few weeks down the line.

So would anyone recommend another choice??

Osmago

Sunderland Vs West Bromwich
Everton Vs Norwich City
Man Utd Vs Queens Park Ra…
Stoke City Vs Fulham
Wigan Athletic Vs Reading
Aston Villa Vs Arsenal
Swansea City Vs Liverpool
Southampton Vs Newcastle United
Chelsea Vs Manchester City
Spurs Vs West Ham

DB74

The first thing is to avoid picking away teams as, over the last 4 full seasons, excl Utd, City, Arsenal, & Chelsea, away teams have won only 22% of their matches (The 4 teams mentioned have actually won over 48% of their away matches if we ignore matches between those 4 sides)

After that, the odds in football are incredibly accurate in predicting the outcome of games, in the long run. For example teams priced at 2/1 win about 33% of the team while teams priced at 4/6 will win approx 60% of the time and teams priced at 1/6 win about 86% of the time.

So IMO the best thing to do is to check the odds of each home team winning and pick one of the shortest ones and hope that they do the business this weekend. The current odds (in general) for the home teams are

Sunderland 6/4
Everton 4/9
Man Utd 1/6
Stoke City 11/10
Wigan Athletic 10/11
Aston Villa 4/1
Swansea City 5/2
Southampton 6/4
Chelsea 6/4
Spurs 4/6

In reality Man Utd are the obvious pick this week and maybe you should select a different week to go against the grain. You can't win if you're not in!

However if you insist on keeping them for another week then I'd be inclined to pick Everton

Osmago

Cheers DB74, went with Man Utd anyway, hadn't the balls to take a chance on someone else!

Osmago

Right, down to the last 5. This wknd is a fairly daunting one to pick a winner.

So far i've used Man City, Man Utd, Stoke, and Liverpool.

Here are the fixtures, what do ye think???!!!

Arsenal v West Brom
Aston Villa v Stoke
Southampton v Reading
Sunderland v Chelsea
Swansea v Norwich
Wigan v QPR
Man City v Man Utd
Everton v Spurs
West Ham v Liverpool
Fulham v Newcastle

ft9

Chelsea. Should be full of confidence after getting the 1st win under Rafa midweek, scoring 6 against a struggling Sunderland.