Wednesday 21st November

rossom

7.00 Kempton

Livia's Dream 14/1

I think Ed Walker's 3 year old filly looks an absolutely ridiculous price at 14/1 and bouncing back from a couple of 'lesser' efforts then I think she will go very well off a mark of 79. In my eyes, she has a progressive profile winning 2 of her 5 handicap starts to date. The latest of these came back in September over today's C+D off a 7lb in what I thought was a very nice performance. Settled just off the pace and travelling wide throughout, George Baker held her together as long as he could and I think she won with a bit more in the tank than her 3/4L victory suggests. The form of that Class 4 race looks very strong with the 3rd Porcini winning her next 3 starts including off a 9lb higher mark. The 6th Just When bolted in by 13L on his only subsequent start in testing handicap at Bath whilst the 2nd Openly had won a Maiden which has prompted the handicapper to raise her 5lb. 2 starts back Livia's Dream ran better than I expected over 1m4f at Windsor in testing conditions when upped 4lb to a mark of 76 as she ran well for a long way before getting weary late on and finishing a 5.75L beaten 6th. The 2nd Aldwich Bay has come out to win again off a 2lb higher mark to solidify the form and I was rather pleased with the effort in the circumstances.

Her last start came at the start of this month when Livia's Dream was stepped into a Fillies Listed contest over 1m5f at Lingfield where she had a very tough task at the weights (at least 10lb inferior than every rival in the field on official terms) and although understandably outclassed I think she performed at least as well as could be expected despite being well beaten (was hampered early on and shuffled back to the rear also). Given that Ed Walker, a trainer who I think is one of the shrewdest operators around, stepped this 3 year old filly into a Listed off a mark of 76 says a lot about what he thinks of her as I feel he wouldn't have risked jeopardising her mark needlessly so he must have thought she would run a big race. The handicapper has upped her 3lb for her effort in the Listed contest to a career mark of 79 but I certainly don't think she's stopped improving yet and the form of her last win has worked out very nicely. With George Baker committed to Gary Moore's Moderator, the excellent Graham Lee takes over in the saddle and looks a very eye catching booking as its his first ride for the yard. She has a lovely draw in stall 2 which should allow Graham Lee to bag the rail just off the pace which should prove an ideal sit. Ed Walker, who has had an absolutely tremendous season so far, has seen his form dry up a bit and is 0-7 in November but that isn't hugely concerning as the flat season is dying down now a bit. I've put up Livia's Dream for her two wins at double prices where she has been well supported on both occasions so if the money comes its a good sign but over a C+D she's proven over and off a mark that I think she has the ability to win off I'm expecting a big run from Livia's Dream and I'm confident she can fill at least one of the three places.

rossom

I think Hans Adielsson's handicap debutant 1.30 Lingfield Compton Bell 22/1 looks very intriguing (not necessarily worth a bet). Comes here on the back of a 422 day absence wearing a first time tongue tie for his 3 year old debut and a mark of 55 looks potentially very lenient. I've looked back at his 3 races as a 2 year old and he didn't look completely devoid of ability and handicapping was always going to be his level. A 34,000 GNS purchase back in October 2010, Compton Bell is certainly bred to do better being a half brother to the Listed winning fillies Brisk Breeze and the German trained Belle Syrienne. In addition, his half brother Beau Chapeau also won over in Germany so he should have a little more to offer than he currently has. Moreover, his siblings all seemed to come into their own when 3 years old so I think Compton Bell will certainly be a better animal now past his Juvenile years. Richard Kingscote, who is having his first start for Hans Adielsson, comes here for only one ride before heading off to Kempton in the evening so it looks potentially a significant booking (he's riding another of Adielsson's on Thursday so he may have been schooling a few of them). He's a horse I'll keeping an eye on in the market and I'll probably track his future progress.

fergal23

Was gonna go with Livias dream myself before seeing your right up....price gone into 7/1 now :eek: St Moritz looks a nice e/w bet in the 6.30. Jockey/Trainers only ride of the day, 2/3 on the AW, currently 25/1

rossom

rossom wrote: »

I think Hans Adielsson's handicap debutant 1.30 Lingfield Compton Bell 22/1 looks very intriguing (not necessarily worth a bet). Comes here on the back of a 422 day absence wearing a first time tongue tie for his 3 year old debut and a mark of 55 looks potentially very lenient. I've looked back at his 3 races as a 2 year old and he didn't look completely devoid of ability and handicapping was always going to be his level. A 34,000 GNS purchase back in October 2010, Compton Bell is certainly bred to do better being a half brother to the Listed winning fillies Brisk Breeze and the German trained Belle Syrienne. In addition, his half brother Beau Chapeau also won over in Germany so he should have a little more to offer than he currently has. Moreover, his siblings all seemed to come into their own when 3 years old so I think Compton Bell will certainly be a better animal now past his Juvenile years. Richard Kingscote, who is having his first start for Hans Adielsson, comes here for only one ride before heading off to Kempton in the evening so it looks potentially a significant booking (he's riding another of Adielsson's on Thursday so he may have been schooling a few of them). He's a horse I'll keeping an eye on in the market and I'll probably track his future progress.

Certainly one to keep an eye on in future. I'd be keen if upped in distance for his next start.

rossom

Am I crazy in thinking 6.30 Kempton St Moritz 40/1 looks insanely overpriced?! Yes he hasn't been at his best this year but his recent win in a Conditions race LTO should have boosted his confidence. He ran well enough at the start of the year and was 107 rated at his peak when getting beaten half a length in a Group 3 by subsequent Group 2 winner Fanunalter in June last year. I think its very interesting that he returns to the polytrack for the first time since his first 2 career starts (won both) and he clearly likes the surface. Dandy Nicholls is flying at the moment with 4 winners from his last 12 runners and this represents both his and his son Adrian Nicholls's only action of the night. In a wide open race, I think St Moritz looks a very price if bouncing back to his best and he definitely has the potential to spring a surpise if putting his best foot forward and I'm backing him to small stakes.

rossom

WOOF

Motivator

I had St. Moritz backed myself, did you see the prize money that horse has won? He's won £108k in his career, about 95k more than any other horse in the race. St. Moritz won 2/2 on the surface & looked ridiculously overpriced but obviously the bookies got it spot on as usual. Perhaps one to keep an eye on because he's only 6. He won last time out but I think the highest rated horse in that race was only rated 58

rossom

2.40 Market Rasen tomorrow Red Hot Poker 8/1 is my NAP. Write up to come later but feel price will plummet.

Mocha Joe

rossom wrote: »

2.40 Market Rasen tomorrow Red Hot Poker 8/1 is my NAP. Write up to come later but feel price will plummet.

Looked at this on betfair as soon as you posted this. It was 8/1. 5 minutes later 5/1.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

7.00 Kempton

Livia's Dream 14/1

I think Ed Walker's 3 year old filly looks an absolutely ridiculous price at 14/1 and bouncing back from a couple of 'lesser' efforts then I think she will go very well off a mark of 79. In my eyes, she has a progressive profile winning 2 of her 5 handicap starts to date. The latest of these came back in September over today's C+D off a 7lb in what I thought was a very nice performance. Settled just off the pace and travelling wide throughout, George Baker held her together as long as he could and I think she won with a bit more in the tank than her 3/4L victory suggests. The form of that Class 4 race looks very strong with the 3rd Porcini winning her next 3 starts including off a 9lb higher mark. The 6th Just When bolted in by 13L on his only subsequent start in testing handicap at Bath whilst the 2nd Openly had won a Maiden which has prompted the handicapper to raise her 5lb. 2 starts back Livia's Dream ran better than I expected over 1m4f at Windsor in testing conditions when upped 4lb to a mark of 76 as she ran well for a long way before getting weary late on and finishing a 5.75L beaten 6th. The 2nd Aldwich Bay has come out to win again off a 2lb higher mark to solidify the form and I was rather pleased with the effort in the circumstances.

Her last start came at the start of this month when Livia's Dream was stepped into a Fillies Listed contest over 1m5f at Lingfield where she had a very tough task at the weights (at least 10lb inferior than every rival in the field on official terms) and although understandably outclassed I think she performed at least as well as could be expected despite being well beaten (was hampered early on and shuffled back to the rear also). Given that Ed Walker, a trainer who I think is one of the shrewdest operators around, stepped this 3 year old filly into a Listed off a mark of 76 says a lot about what he thinks of her as I feel he wouldn't have risked jeopardising her mark needlessly so he must have thought she would run a big race. The handicapper has upped her 3lb for her effort in the Listed contest to a career mark of 79 but I certainly don't think she's stopped improving yet and the form of her last win has worked out very nicely. With George Baker committed to Gary Moore's Moderator, the excellent Graham Lee takes over in the saddle and looks a very eye catching booking as its his first ride for the yard. She has a lovely draw in stall 2 which should allow Graham Lee to bag the rail just off the pace which should prove an ideal sit. Ed Walker, who has had an absolutely tremendous season so far, has seen his form dry up a bit and is 0-7 in November but that isn't hugely concerning as the flat season is dying down now a bit. I've put up Livia's Dream for her two wins at double prices where she has been well supported on both occasions so if the money comes its a good sign but over a C+D she's proven over and off a mark that I think she has the ability to win off I'm expecting a big run from Livia's Dream and I'm confident she can fill at least one of the three places.

Argh thats a bit annoying. Can't fault horse or jockey but just pretty rotten she got nabbed close home.

BlueBaron

im gutted to say the least, had big stakes but went for the jugular andf backed him win only.....unlucky rossom, hope the good form continues!

budthewiser

Mocha Joe wrote: »

Looked at this on betfair as soon as you posted this. It was 8/1. 5 minutes later 5/1.

13/2 on paddy power

fergal23

rossom wrote: »

Am I crazy in thinking 6.30 Kempton St Moritz 40/1 looks insanely overpriced?! Yes he hasn't been at his best this year but his recent win in a Conditions race LTO should have boosted his confidence. He ran well enough at the start of the year and was 107 rated at his peak when getting beaten half a length in a Group 3 by subsequent Group 2 winner Fanunalter in June last year. I think its very interesting that he returns to the polytrack for the first time since his first 2 career starts (won both) and he clearly likes the surface. Dandy Nicholls is flying at the moment with 4 winners from his last 12 runners and this represents both his and his son Adrian Nicholls's only action of the night. In a wide open race, I think St Moritz looks a very price if bouncing back to his best and he definitely has the potential to spring a surpise if putting his best foot forward and I'm backing him to small stakes.

Yeh I thought that too. 33/1 SP. Did him ew. Bookies got it right anyway. One to keep an eye on perhaps.

rossom wrote: »

7.00 Kempton

Livia's Dream 14/1

I think Ed Walker's 3 year old filly looks an absolutely ridiculous price at 14/1 and bouncing back from a couple of 'lesser' efforts then I think she will go very well off a mark of 79. In my eyes, she has a progressive profile winning 2 of her 5 handicap starts to date. The latest of these came back in September over today's C+D off a 7lb in what I thought was a very nice performance. Settled just off the pace and travelling wide throughout, George Baker held her together as long as he could and I think she won with a bit more in the tank than her 3/4L victory suggests. The form of that Class 4 race looks very strong with the 3rd Porcini winning her next 3 starts including off a 9lb higher mark. The 6th Just When bolted in by 13L on his only subsequent start in testing handicap at Bath whilst the 2nd Openly had won a Maiden which has prompted the handicapper to raise her 5lb. 2 starts back Livia's Dream ran better than I expected over 1m4f at Windsor in testing conditions when upped 4lb to a mark of 76 as she ran well for a long way before getting weary late on and finishing a 5.75L beaten 6th. The 2nd Aldwich Bay has come out to win again off a 2lb higher mark to solidify the form and I was rather pleased with the effort in the circumstances.

Her last start came at the start of this month when Livia's Dream was stepped into a Fillies Listed contest over 1m5f at Lingfield where she had a very tough task at the weights (at least 10lb inferior than every rival in the field on official terms) and although understandably outclassed I think she performed at least as well as could be expected despite being well beaten (was hampered early on and shuffled back to the rear also). Given that Ed Walker, a trainer who I think is one of the shrewdest operators around, stepped this 3 year old filly into a Listed off a mark of 76 says a lot about what he thinks of her as I feel he wouldn't have risked jeopardising her mark needlessly so he must have thought she would run a big race. The handicapper has upped her 3lb for her effort in the Listed contest to a career mark of 79 but I certainly don't think she's stopped improving yet and the form of her last win has worked out very nicely. With George Baker committed to Gary Moore's Moderator, the excellent Graham Lee takes over in the saddle and looks a very eye catching booking as its his first ride for the yard. She has a lovely draw in stall 2 which should allow Graham Lee to bag the rail just off the pace which should prove an ideal sit. Ed Walker, who has had an absolutely tremendous season so far, has seen his form dry up a bit and is 0-7 in November but that isn't hugely concerning as the flat season is dying down now a bit. I've put up Livia's Dream for her two wins at double prices where she has been well supported on both occasions so if the money comes its a good sign but over a C+D she's proven over and off a mark that I think she has the ability to win off I'm expecting a big run from Livia's Dream and I'm confident she can fill at least one of the three places.

Great right up as usual. Unlucky not to win!! Small returns for each way.

3ndahalfof6

rossom wrote: »

Argh thats a bit annoying. Can't fault horse or jockey but just pretty rotten she got nabbed close home.

I feel bad, I did back your pick as I always do, but put a few EW on the winner, just sorry I did not do the RF, your still flying sir looking forward to your next write up.