Tuesday 20th November

rossom

3.20 Southwell

Mullins Way 33/1 NAP

Before anyone goes overboard, I mean NAP in terms of I think its the best bet of the day (value wise) as opposed to it being a lump job. Although risks clearly come attached to Mullins Way, I think Jo Hughes's 4 year old gelding has the potential to make a mockery of his current price tag on what is a career low mark on his fibresand debut. In his 17 career starts to date, Mullins Way has only recorded one victory on his handicap debut back in July 2011 when scored at Redcar off a mark of 83. Although winless since then, he has put in some very decent efforts earlier this year that make him look extremely well handicapped off a mark of 70. Back in February, he finished a fast finishing 0.5L beaten 2nd at Wolverhampton off a mark of 84 in a race won by Viva Ronaldo who subsequently went on to score on turf off a 9lb higher mark 3 starts later. In addition to this excellent effort, he ran a very nice race off a mark of 83 at Redcar when a 2L beaten 4th at Redcar in April over 1m and he followed that up with an excellent 1.75L beaten 4th back at Wolves on his next start later that month off the same mark. He's had 5 starts since his close up 4th at Wolves and although not at his best he's subsequently plummeted down to his current mark of 70 which looks very manageable. 5 starts back in May at Musselburgh over 9f I think he ran a lot better than his finishing position suggested when he was bang there in the firing line at the final furlong marker before tiring late on and getting eased at the finish. He then went on a 4 month break over the summer and on his reappearance in a Class 3 handicap at Leicester he was dropped out the back by Gemma Marshall and he never really got on terms. 3 starts back he was dropped out the back in another Class 3 contest at Newmarket and he never really looked like landing a blow and the same could be said at Windsor on soft ground last month. However, I thought he shaped a little better on his last start at Kempton last month in a race that has worked out extremely well (especially for the grade).

Off a mark of 72 (had fallen 10lb since September), Mullins Way was dropped into a Class 5 handicap contest for the first time in his career and in the stalls beforehand he was a little restless and reared a few seconds before the stall opened. It looked a little like he stumbled leaving the stalls but J P Guillambert took a tug regardless and dropped him out in the rear of the field (he was dropped out the back in all 4 starts since his returning from a break). Turning into the home straight, Mullins Way was already getting niggled (which is normal for him). He looked as if he was about ready to make a move up the inside but he had nowhere to go and resultantly he was given an easy time of things as he came home in 10th. I'm not saying he would have been able to quicken up and get into contention but he certainly had nowhere to go which resulted in his jockey not giving him a hard time of things (which is true about his last 3 races where Guillambert has not raised the whip on him). Regardless of that, that race has worked out very well. From those in front of him, only 4 horses have come out since and all have franked the form in no uncertain terms on their only subsequent starts. The 3rd Roxelana won off the same mark, the 5th Dozy Joe got beaten a neck, the 6th Silverware won off a 1lb lower mark whilst the 7th Great Expectations ran an absolute blinder off a 2lb lower mark to finish a neck beaten 2nd in a 19 runner event at Doncaster. This makes his effort look all the better and I think he looked as if he was coming back to some semblance of form.

Dropped a further 2lb, (12lb in his last 4 runs) I think the switch to Southwell could prove the oracle for Mullins Way as he has his 2nd start in a Class 5 handicap off a career low mark which is his first start on fibresand. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, I've had a long look at his breeding and he really comes out well on that side of things. US Bred horses have a 14% win and 28% place rate on their fibresand debuts. Specifically related to Mullins Way, although his Sire Mr Greeley has only had 1 winner from 20 runners at the track, 45% of these runners have placed at Southwell so he shows up favourably in this regard. This 4 year old's Dam Aljawza has only had one of her progeny run at Southwell in the shape of Mullins Way's Half Sister Alsadaa who also won on her fibresand debut. Additionally, his Damsire Riverman has had 19 winners on fibresand whilst Grandsire Gone West has had 6 progeny win at Southwell so I think the chances of him acting on the surface look very promising and there is a definite possibility that he will improve because of it. Jo Hughes also boasts a fantastic 23% strike rate at the track and is in good form having a winner here the other day. Off a career low mark, I think Mullins Way has an excellent chance to return to form now switched to fibresand on what is clearly the easiest task in his career to date. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, breeding certainly suggests he will relish it and perhaps improve for it. With the multitude of positives significantly outweighing doubts or negatives, I think he looks incredibly overpriced and 33/1 could be made look ridiculous at the end of the race tomorrow.

rossom

2.40 Folkestone

Just Josie 15/2

I think 15/2 looks a more than fair price about Sheena West's unexposed 6 year old mare who is currently 2-2 over fences after scoring twice over today's C+D in December 2011/January 2012. After running in a 7f maiden for Gary Moore on debut back in late 2008 and a Novice Hurdle 11 months later in September 2009, Just Josie joined current connections in November 2010 where this mare had two relatively quick runs over hurdles to get her a handicap mark. With a mark of 86 now secured, Sheena West sent Just Josie into a handicap chase after an 11 month break where she broke her maiden tag in fine style beating the short price JP McManus favourite by 1.75L as the front two drew miles clear of the remainder. A month later and upped 9lb for that win she kept her unbeaten run going as she won in very easy fashion as she was nearly eased to a walk as she scored by 3L in January of this year. Although the form of that 5 runner race is dire, she couldn't have done it any easier and certainly looked on the upgrade. She's been off the track for nearly 11 months and she has to deal with a 10lb hike in the weights in a better race but I feel that she is very likely still ahead of the handicapper. The break isn't much of a concern given that she defied a similar one when landing her first chase and Sheena West will surely have her ready for this. Sheena West is in belting form at present with 4 winners from her last 10 NH runners and is particularly adept at readying horses from an absence. With the ground looking to come up fine, I think the 15/2 for a horse who is unbeaten over fences, is 2-2 over the C+D, 2-2 under Marc Goldstein and whose trainer is in cracking form makes her definitely overpriced and I'm confident this unexposed 6 year old can keep her perfect chasing record intact.

the groutch

interesting to see Tommy Stack running his Tramore flat winner Spider Zagato in a juvenile hurdle at Folkstone. looks to be worth a punt at 5/2 in what looks like a very weak race

flashjohn

She has 3 runners at Folkstone today. Going to do a little Patent, she normally comes good arounf now

dave3004

12,20 Southwell. You'll do well to find a worse race all year. Alot of the horses at the top of the market are drawn very wide and are short enough.

Drawn well is Dunaskin from 3. He was 4th lto after stumbling at the start and I think this race could fall into his lap. He's race fit, has a feather weight on his back which he has when he wins. He's got course form which few here have and distance form which few here have. OK so he was beaten 12L lto but the front 2 were both massive improvers who cleared the field by 10. I think if Dunaskin gets away well from his gate, with a decent 5lb claimer on board, he's over the odds at 25s. He was out only 6 days ago. I'm taking the risk. Small e/w.

flashjohn

dave3004 wrote: »

12,20 Southwell. You'll do well to find a worse race all year. Alot of the horses at the top of the market are drawn very wide and are short enough.

Drawn well is Dunaskin from 3. He was 4th lto after stumbling at the start and I think this race could fall into his lap. He's race fit, has a feather weight on his back which he has when he wins. He's got course form which few here have and distance form which few here have. OK so he was beaten 12L lto but the front 2 were both massive improvers who cleared the field by 10. I think if Dunaskin gets away well from his gate, with a decent 5lb claimer on board, he's over the odds at 25s. He was out only 6 days ago. I'm taking the risk. Small e/w.

Great Call, I've never thought the winning straight was so long at Southwell!! Think he got the photo

dave3004

Deserved to win.

Beaten in a photo. Ran a blinder from the front !

flashjohn

flashjohn wrote: »

Great Call, I've never thought the winning straight was so long at Southwell!! Think he got the photo

Heartbreaking stuff, had he sneezed he'd have won

the groutch

you were definitely right about the draw advantage, the 2nd and 3rd home were drawn 1&2

dave3004

12.50 Southwell - Will be having another longshot e/w in this. No Mean Trick is a Midgley runner who hasnt been seen in over 190 days but has Southwell form like nothing else here (51216)

Taking the fitness of the horse on trust but could be too good for these.

23.0 on bf and from stall 1 over the 6f that will do nicely. Micky Fenton takes the ride.

rossom

Great call Dave just very unlucky.

Can someone have a look at Mullins Way and tell me if I'm crazy in thinking JP Guillambert didn't try?

NaiveMelodies

rossom wrote: »

Great call Dave just very unlucky.

Can someone have a look at Mullins Way and tell me if I'm crazy in thinking JP Guillambert didn't try?

Just had a look, I'd say he could have been tenderly handled indeed. When he lost his prominent position 4 out the side on view showed Guillambert apparently "working" his mount, but it didn't look like the most convincing bit of work. From watching there and not knowing the result I would have been confident of a place at least judging from how the horse travelled at that stage of the race(coming around the bend). Lack of urgency down the straight aswell.

sonnky

Drama in the conditionals race at Fakenham today, Brendan Powell took the wrong course when clear and the horse that was second got nailed in the line!