Friday 9 November

rossom

7.20 Wolverhampton

Illustrious Forest 16/1 NAP

Cannot quite believe the price of John Mackie's 4 year old and I'm very confident that a massive runs beckons and I really think he's going to take an awful lot of beating if connections are trying tomorrow as I think he's definitely better than his mark of 75(yard form is a slight concern also). Although favourite Mawhub is going to prove popular tomorrow, I definitely think he is worth taking on. Firstly, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pace in the race so it will probably be hard to come from off the speed. Secondly, there is a question about his attitude as he looked like he would surge by eventual winner Arch Villain before getting worried out of things to go down by a neck on his last start. Thirdly, he's been beaten in both his handicaps to date and finally (although winner has yet to reappear) the 3rd and 4th have both disappointed on their only starts since. Although unexposed and I've seen Godolphin horses with similar profiles piss in and prove far superior to their marks, I don't see the allure of supporting him at a price this short and even if I thought he was a backable price I'd still be siding with Illustrious Forest. Getting back to John Mackie's gelding, he started out his career on turf and didn't really cut mustard in his first 6 career starts on that surface but his career really took off when switch to the AW at Wolves where he has really flourished and looked a very progressive animal.

After running well in a Classified Stakes race over an extended 9f at the track, a return to handicaps and the step up in trip to today's C+D has proved the making of Illustrious Forest as he achieved a 1-1-2-1-12 record in his 5 attempts since the end of December last year. Off a mark of 51, Illustrious Forest landed a lovely late gamble under todays pilot(14/1 - 8/1) in facile fashion to shed his maiden tag at the 8th attempt to score by 8L. That day Norton allowed Illustrious Forest to bowl along out in front and he quickened up really nicely with a few furlongs left and when the persuader was drawn Although not wholly applicable given how much higher he is in the handicap, it was a pretty good race given the easily beaten 2nd won on his next start and is now 11lb higher rated than that day. Unsurprisingly, Illustrious Forest was raised 15lb for that easy success to a mark of 65 but he proved that mark wasn't beyond him when scoring a little over a month later. Again strong in the market, Illustrious Settled just off the pace, (which has proved to be his preferred style of racing) and took up the running with about 3.5f to go and he drew 4 or so lengths clear of the field entering the home straight. However, he hung very badly right when Michael O'Connell drew the whip which undoubtedly cost him a fair bit of ground but he was still far enough ahead to last home by 3/4L. Although the form of that isn't great, he would have won more convincingly if not idling/hanging and it was again a reaffirmation of a horse with an upwardly mobile profile.

Upped 6lb to a mark of 71 an upped to a Class 5, Illustrious Forest's hat trick bid was faulted 3 weeks after his last victory when finishing a 3L beaten 2nd in his 3rd consecutive outing over today's track and trip. After sitting off the pace, Illustrious Forest was perhaps caught a little flat footed as the eventual winner Country Road kicked clear around the home turn and Illustrious Forest wasn't really making many inroads. I think he ran a bit flat that day despite running well enough and even though that race hasn't worked out very well Illustrious Forest bounced back to form emphatically fashion when stepped up to a Class 4 on his next start off the same mark. Sent off a well backed favourite, Illustrious Forest sat just off the pace at what I think looked an even enough gallop. With about 4f to go, the leader Zenoor injected some pace into the race but John Mackie's charge easily had the move covered and drew alongside before taking up the running with a couple of furlongs to go. Under hands and heels riding, Illustrious Forest had the race well and truly sewn up entering the home straight and Franny Norton didn't need to draw the whip once as he had a couple of looks over his shoulder inside the final furlong and eased this gelding close home to score by a comfortable 1.75L. If full exertion was applied, I feel the winning distance would have been closer to double digits and it was a really taking victory off a mark that is just 4lb lower than today. Two starts back Illustrious Forest was returned to the turf in a hot race at York at the end of May off a mark of 79 and although well beaten in the end I think its clear he is a much better horse on a synthetic surface (turf mark dropped 10lb after that run) so I'm not looking into that race too much.

After a 143 day absence, Illustrious Forest returned to Wolves again over 12f when I thought he was given a very easy time of things in a race whose remit very much looked like to blow away a few cobwebs. After adopting his traditional sit just off the pace, he seemed a lot keener than usual which is understandable off the back of his absence and after appearing to hold every chance with about 3f to go Franny Norton never flinched a muscle as he allowed his mount to fall tamely to the rear as he trailed home last in his own time. I think that should have him spot on for this and it was certainly an eye catching effort in my books. For that effort, Illustrious Forest has been dropped a further 2lb to a mark of 75 and given that he is only 4lb above his last victory and his very progressive profile I certainly feel he has more than enough ability to score off his current mark. Lightly raced with only 13 starts in his career to date (6 on the AW), he is clearly open to a lot more improvement (although he won't need much) and I think his 5 months off over the summer will have allowed him to grow into himself and strengthen up a bit more. Although John Mackie's form is a little disconcerting (no winners since August), I'm not grossly concerned given how well he was before going on is break. I think its going to be an interesting race as I don't see any out and out pace angle (Queens Estate made all when winning but hasn't led in his 4 runs since) I think his berth in stall 2 is absolutely ideal if he sits just off the pace or alternatively he could attempt to make all as he did when shedding his maiden tag if needs be. This represents Franny Norton's, who is 2-3 on board Illustrious Forest, only ride of the day and if sharpened up for his recent reappearance run then I am very confident of a big showing from this 4 year old and it will not surprise me in the slightest if he lands this 12 runner affair. If Illustrious Forest drifts during the day I will not be concerned in the slightest (seems that connections conduct on course gambles) and I will be topping up my bet. Furthermore, I may have a small saver betting W/O the favourite Mawhub just in case he's miles ahead of the handicapper although I don't really think he is.

rossom

3.20 Musselburgh

Fred Bojangals 20/1 NB

I'm going to try and keep this short but I really think 20/1 is a very big price. Although now entering his veteran stage, I think Barbara Butterworth's 10 year old has a decent chance of landing this race for a second successive year (for Ann Hamilton last year) from only a 3lb higher mark and back down to his last winning mark from April this year. Although not at his best since joining current connections in June, he was largely campaigned over hurdles (20lb lower in that sphere) and I think he has shown up much better in his two previous races returned to chasing last month since cheekpieces have been refitted and I think both efforts are better than the bare form result. Both starts over probably a slightly too short a trip of 2m, Fred Bojangals showed up very well for an awfully long way before looking very tired late on in the heavy ground. I think it was probably a combination of trying to do a little too much too quickly over the minimum trip coupled with the heavy ground and the fact he showed up for such a long way was very encouraging (although his win off this mark came on soft ground, his former trainer was quite surprised and thought he needed better ground and she also said that he needed fast ground after his win in this race last year). In addition, the form of his last race looks pretty strong as the 2nd and 3rd occupied the top 2 spots on their only subsequent start in the same race. I think Fred Bojangals will relish the step back up to 2m4f and return to good ground as well as returning to Musselburgh where he has 2 wins and a 3rd from 5 starts at the course. With trainer Barabara Butterworth registering her first winner for 14 months with her last runner, I'm hoping that is a sign of things to come today. Although he invariably has risks attached, he's back on a mark he won off in April in a race he landed 12 months ago and under Brian Hughes (who was on board the last twice and who has 2 wins on board this gelding) I'm hoping history can repeat itself and Fred Bojangals can register the 8th chasing victory of his career.

Going to play a small e/w double which pays 356/1

luis suarez

The best of luck with your selections today rossom. Win or lose thanks for the excellent write ups.

UrbanSea

Unlucky not to get some each way money on Fred Bojangles.

Dundalk is usually a happy hunting ground for me on a Friday night and I had two small bets tonight. Eight o'clock think Solar Heat is an interesting runner. Could be very well handicapped off a mark of 54. All of her runs have come on heavy ground over the summer and was rated 68 going into handicaps, but hadn't showed much until last time out over at mile at Navan when beaten over four lengths off 58. This a competitve enough race but she could run well here on her polytrack debut. Thought Crystal Harmony was similarly well handicapped but perhaps she might want a shade further than a mile given she's by Dalakhani.


Half eight a very speculative one on the regressive and incredibly frustrating Khelino. Huge question marks over staying the trip but has plumetted in the weights

BQQ

All Silver in the 19:00 looks interesting too.

Big punt on him went astray last time (first run over 6f).
Smullen booked now for Pat Flynn who's in great form.

Might just disappoint again, but worth the risk for me @ 7/1 in an open h'cap.

Imhof Tank

rossom wrote: »

3.20 Musselburgh

Fred Bojangals 20/1 NB

I'm going to try and keep this short but I really think 20/1 is a very big price. Although now entering his veteran stage, I think Barbara Butterworth's 10 year old has a decent chance of landing this race for a second successive year (for Ann Hamilton last year) from only a 3lb higher mark and back down to his last winning mark from April this year. Although not at his best since joining current connections in June, he was largely campaigned over hurdles (20lb lower in that sphere) and I think he has shown up much better in his two previous races returned to chasing last month since cheekpieces have been refitted and I think both efforts are better than the bare form result. Both starts over probably a slightly too short a trip of 2m, Fred Bojangals showed up very well for an awfully long way before looking very tired late on in the heavy ground. I think it was probably a combination of trying to do a little too much too quickly over the minimum trip coupled with the heavy ground and the fact he showed up for such a long way was very encouraging (although his win off this mark came on soft ground, his former trainer was quite surprised and thought he needed better ground and she also said that he needed fast ground after his win in this race last year). In addition, the form of his last race looks pretty strong as the 2nd and 3rd occupied the top 2 spots on their only subsequent start in the same race. I think Fred Bojangals will relish the step back up to 2m4f and return to good ground as well as returning to Musselburgh where he has 2 wins and a 3rd from 5 starts at the course. With trainer Barabara Butterworth registering her first winner for 14 months with her last runner, I'm hoping that is a sign of things to come today. Although he invariably has risks attached, he's back on a mark he won off in April in a race he landed 12 months ago and under Brian Hughes (who was on board the last twice and who has 2 wins on board this gelding) I'm hoping history can repeat itself and Fred Bojangals can register the 8th chasing victory of his career.

Going to play a small e/w double which pays 356/1

You can often get an edge in Musselburgh chases with course specialists.

This horse was great value ew today at 28/1 and I backed it accordingly for small stakes. Just typical then to be beaten into 4th (in a photo). :mad:

rossom

Not sure what to make of that. Writing was on the wall really given he was so weak in the market (has been well backed late in every run he has gone well). He may have needed that but that may be a bit hopeful. I'll see if I can dig anything up from owners/trainer over the next few days.

At least I was spot on about not liking the favourite.

Ray Mond

With all due respect your write ups and analysis are great but ur horses that u actually NAP are pigs ! They have prob ran good previously but I myself can only remember one winner u had in the last year or so that U nap as I said before no disrespect man but to nap horses like u do is taking the mickey! Sorry if I come across bad

mr.jingle

UrbanSea wrote: »

Unlucky not to get some each way money on Fred Bojangles.

Dundalk is usually a happy hunting ground for me on a Friday night and I had two small bets tonight. Eight o'clock think Solar Heat is an interesting runner. Could be very well handicapped off a mark of 54. All of her runs have come on heavy ground over the summer and was rated 68 going into handicaps, but hadn't showed much until last time out over at mile at Navan when beaten over four lengths off 58. This a competitve enough race but she could run well here on her polytrack debut. Thought Crystal Harmony was similarly well handicapped but perhaps she might want a shade further than a mile given she's by Dalakhani.


Half eight a very speculative one on the regressive and incredibly frustrating Khelino. Huge question marks over staying the trip but has plumetted in the weights

Good man Urban hope you were on

UrbanSea

Yes sir I was. Pays for my beer tomorrow woop woop chicken soup

mr.jingle

UrbanSea wrote: »

Yes sir I was. Pays for my beer tomorrow woop woop chicken soup

I was doing the attheraces tipping comp and was going to go with Khelino but changed my mind and went for the 3rd home. Had 3 winner from the 1st 4 too:mad: Good man though really stuck on well

UrbanSea

That's always the way.

Thought he was going to be an unlucky loser. He was boxed in and had to come from the rail to about 5 wide to get out. Had several lengths in hand, hopefully won't be put up excessively given he did it by about a neck