Which way is the euro going?

pirelli

I have to make an exchange of euro to dollars in the near future, and i ma wondering if the euro will get stronger.
Which way is the Euro going in the

1.Short term
2. Medium Term
3.Long Term

I just wish to generate some discussion, I realise the difficulty in predicting the actual outcome. I.e If Greece drop out of european union/economy then what effect will that have on the euro in the short to medium term.

megafan

Going going gone!!;)

turbobaby

Well, with the re-election of Obama the deficits will certainly continue and as you know, those deficits are paid for in the most part by fresh dollars from the Fed.

So the value of the dollar should drop over the short, medium and long term.

The next question is whether the Euro will drop as much as it. I believe the sh1t has hit the fan in Europe already (to a large extent) and has been priced in already. At least there's some fiscal restraint in Central and North Germany to keep the value of the Euro intact.

Anyway, my advice would be to cost average and buy over a period of time, rather than in one big lump.

DarkDusk

Fiat currencies are all going down the drain for the medium-long term. We are currently in a currency war which means that all the central banks need to inflate their currencies in order to stay competitive. Proof of this is when Draghi announced that we would begin a bond-buying program about 2 months back. About 2 weeks after that Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve announced that he would commence buying of mortgage-backed securities and continue to buy bonds with no end date. As you can see, Bernanke and Draghi are both printing money to stay competitive. However, we do not know what happens behind the scenes. There is a theory that they are planning this (devaluing their currencies at the same time) so no-one would notice a change in the exchange rate, or at least the normal people on the street. I heard this book was very good and I will probably buy it soon: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Currency-Wars-Portfolio-James-Rickards/dp/1591844495/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1352499138&sr=1-1
Probably worth a read.

James.

DarkDusk

I think every one should brace themselves, I think this almighty bond bubble is about to pop very soon, next year quite possibly. If anyone is holding sterling as a "hedge", I think they should get out of it now, the pound will probably be one of the first to go.

land lover

Where will it all end.

DarkDusk

Sorry, where will what all end?

jank

DarkDusk wrote: »

I think every one should brace themselves, I think this almighty bond bubble is about to pop very soon, next year quite possibly. If anyone is holding sterling as a "hedge", I think they should get out of it now, the pound will probably be one of the first to go.

What are the indicators for this? Sterling if I am not mistaken has already devalued quite a bit recently as since 5 years ago, could it go even more?

http://www.google.com/finance?q=CURRENCY%3AGBP&sq=sterling&sp=1&ei=zkS1ULDvKcr3wAOYlgE

RATM

Max Keiser is on record as saying that sterling will collapse in 2013. I'm not his biggest fan but he did predict Iceland's collapse 6 months before it happened. He also predicted Morgan Chase would collapse when silver hit $30 but that didn't happen so take what you will from him.

The Bank of England just appoiinted a new governor from Canada, it looks like he'll have his work cut out for him...

jank

Lots of people out there saying that this or that will collapse. Very hard to to see what any rational outcome is in regards to world currencies. Remember gold was expected to hit $4k an ounce!

All I know is that there is a lot of printing going on, what definate outcome of this is all up in the air. Maybe I am not that bearish as I thought!

Cavehill Red

jank wrote: »

Lots of people out there saying that this or that will collapse. Very hard to to see what any rational outcome is in regards to world currencies. Remember gold was expected to hit $4k an ounce!

All I know is that there is a lot of printing going on, what definate outcome of this is all up in the air. Maybe I am not that bearish as I thought!

Gold will inevitably hit $4K an ounce. The only variable is time. In 1924 Gold was just over $20 an ounce. As fiat inflates, gold stays the same, meaning it inevitably rises in nominal fiat value. As you say, the printing presses are working overtime. As to when gold hits 4 grand, your guess is as good as mine. But hit it, it will.

jank

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Gold will inevitably hit $4K an ounce. The only variable is time. In 1924 Gold was just over $20 an ounce. As fiat inflates, gold stays the same, meaning it inevitably rises in nominal fiat value. As you say, the printing presses are working overtime. As to when gold hits 4 grand, your guess is as good as mine. But hit it, it will.

What I meant was that many were saying that Gold was due to hit $4k an ounce a year or two ago, this hasn't happened ...yet. Sure in 20, 50 or 100 years time gold may well be $4k an ounce but that doesn't mean its a good investment either. What you want is a annual rate of return that is consistent.

My point is that there are always bears out there saying that there will be some economic collapse of this or that, usually they are wrong but sometimes they are right, but it doesnt help anyone in determining what is actually going to happen in the next year or even 5 years.

So the bond bubble will/may burst.. can someone explain to me what this will entail? Bond prices to go up thus an increase of inflation and a collapse of currency valuations?

Cavehill Red

jank wrote: »

What I meant was that many were saying that Gold was due to hit $4k an ounce a year or two ago, this hasn't happened ...yet. Sure in 20, 50 or 100 years time gold may well be $4k an ounce but that doesn't mean its a good investment either. What you want is a annual rate of return that is consistent.

My point is that there are always bears out there saying that there will be some economic collapse of this or that, usually they are wrong but sometimes they are right, but it doesnt help anyone in determining what is actually going to happen in the next year or even 5 years.

So the bond bubble will/may burst.. can someone explain to me what this will entail? Bond prices to go up thus an increase of inflation and a collapse of currency valuations?

I'll bet you any money that gold is at 4000 dollars per ounce in much less than 20 years right now.
You can invest in anything you like and as long as it's priced in dollars, and as long as they keep the print button pressed, you'll get a nominal return, all other variables being equal. However, that may not amount to a real return if fiat currency is devaluing against hard assets, such as gold, or oil, or food, or land.
None of us have a crystal ball, and globally we're already quite a distance into terra incognita in current circumstances so all such predictions are a hostage to fortune and to be taken with your own DD. But my gut feeling is that you can't print your way out of this without either triggering hyperinflation or else pushing commodities prices significantly upwards, and that includes precious metals.

ban_me_again

RATM wrote: »

Max Keiser is on record as saying that sterling will collapse in 2013. I'm not his biggest fan but he did predict Iceland's collapse 6 months before it happened. He also predicted Morgan Chase would collapse when silver hit $30 but that didn't happen so take what you will from him.

The Bank of England just appoiinted a new governor from Canada, it looks like he'll have his work cut out for him...

max keiser is pretty wacky