Monday 5th November

rossom

2.25 Plumpton

Dromore Hill 4/1 NAP

No surprise to see this one supported considering Claire Dyson is absolutely flying at the moment but looking at the horse I can see why as I think this 8 year old has a cracking chance. Although winless in 15 starts under rules to date and clearly no superstar whatseover, I definitely think he has some wiggle room off his current mark of 72 and I expect him to go close to breaking his duck at the 16th time of asking. Dromore Hill started off his career with Charlie Morlock and it definitely seemed as if chasing was his game when finishing 3-3-2 in his first career starts in that sphere off handicap marks 87, 85 and 84 at the backend of 2010 whilst he also put in a good showing when beaten 7.5L off a mark of 86 in March 2011 which are highlights of a pretty unspectacular career to date. He only had one more start for Charlie Morlock after that 7.5L defeat two weeks later before joining Alison Thorpe which was a wholly unsuccessful partnership as he finished pulled up and tailed off in 2 handicap hurdles in October 2011 and he was not seen again since making his debut for Claire Dyson last month.

On the back of a 12 month absence and with cheekpieces reapplied for the first time since 2010, I think Dromore Hill performed very well on his debut for the Dyson yard over 3m2f off a mark of 80 at Wincanton as he helped set the pace for much of the contest. He was still there bang in the thick of things with about 3/4 of a mile to go before it seemed as if his long absence from the track got the better of him and he dropped back fairly quickly and he seemed a tired horse. However, he was not given an overly hard time of things by Jimmy McCarthy when beaten and I thought it was definitely a highly encouraging debut for the stable. I think the handicapper has been extremely lenient by dropping him 8lb for that effort and Dromore Hill now falls to a career low mark of 72 which I think looks well within his scope of ability. Trainer Claire Dyson has really hit top form with 4 winners from her last 10 runners (a further 4 have placed) and that is a massive positive for this 8 year olds chances. Young conditional jockey Gerald Quinn takes the ride and a very handy 7lb off bringing Dromore Hill's mark down to an effective 65 for tomorrows race. Quinn is a jockey that I have been pretty impressed with for quite a while and I think he is more than worth his claim. With his mark looking very manageable, his trainer in such good form and the price falling the longer it takes me to finish this, I believe Dromore Hill has an excellent chance of landing this and I hope he makes it 16th time lucky.

UrbanSea

One I've been following of late is Keys of Cyprus who goes in the 3.55 Wolverhampton. Fancied him two runs ago on his first start on Polytrack over a furlong shorter off a mark of 56. Ran fine that day, beaten over three lengths, though I'm not entirely sure that making the running was for him (never won from the front), and thought he'd do the business last time out. Held up out the back, he had to go five wide well off the pace turning for home. Picked up really well in the straight to finish a two and a half length fifth. Considering his position it was a very good run, and he was dropped another two pounds for today's race. I'm certain this horse is due to go in very soon. I'd be quite worried about the favourite who is very nicely handicapped, but my horse is now a stone below his last winning mark and has won off a high of 76. 18/1 is a big big price

rossom

UrbanSea wrote: »

One I've been following of late is Keys of Cyprus who goes in the 3.55 Wolverhampton. Fancied him two runs ago on his first start on Polytrack over a furlong shorter off a mark of 56. Ran fine that day, beaten over three lengths, though I'm not entirely sure that making the running was for him (never won from the front), and thought he'd do the business last time out. Held up out the back, he had to go five wide well off the pace turning for home. Picked up really well in the straight to finish a two and a half length fifth. Considering his position it was a very good run, and he was dropped another two pounds for today's race. I'm certain this horse is due to go in very soon. I'd be quite worried about the favourite who is very nicely handicapped, but my horse is now a stone below his last winning mark and has won off a high of 76. 18/1 is a big big price

I'm guessing this is the one you thought was the bet of the week? I'll have a further gander at it but from what you've said I think you may be on to something.

rossom

Shambolic race in general. For one reason or another Dromore Hill never went a yard today. Trying too hard take on Dushy Valley wouldn't have helped but there was no way in hell that was his true showing today. Wouldn't be overly keen to back him again though!

Ray Mond

Backing that was backing a donkey in a pig race , wouldnt have went near it

saiint

sorry rossom
didnt see you had this tip posted
had it meself haha
donkey other 2 came in well though so smiles all round

rossom

Probably shouldn't have gone near it in hindsight but that's a wonderful thing.

I'm liking Keys of Cyprus US

UrbanSea

rossom wrote: »

I'm guessing this is the one you thought was the bet of the week? I'll have a further gander at it but from what you've said I think you may be on to something.

Yes sir. Worry is today is a good race, but really think he's due to win soon should things go right. Today or next run I reckon

UrbanSea

I missed the race, did he run terribly

Imhof Tank

UrbanSea wrote: »

I missed the race, did he run terribly

11th of 12 - "always towards rear, never on terms". A poor effort.

When I saw your earlier posts I was about to post "good luck with the bet, but arent you making a lot of excuses for this horse's recent defeats?".

To keep following this lad, another excuse will have to be found for today. Would you be prepared to do that?

UrbanSea

I'll excuse a horse a run when there's a legitimate reason, quite like the last two runs

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'll excuse a horse a run when there's a legitimate reason, quite like the last two runs

He was very weak on Betfair when I looked (approx 15.30)

Overthelast

UrbanSea wrote: »

I'll excuse a horse a run when there's a legitimate reason, quite like the last two runs

I threw a couple of euro's on @ 16/1 as I liked the analysis & looked at the horses profile. Missed the race - appears he ran a stinker but I've no complaints. Don't be put off putting up a fancied horse analysis here. I'd much prefer reading that, than someone looking for a further "excuse" for a poor run, especially after the result is known. If I wanted excuses for every losing horse I fancied, I'd break out the dictaphone, don a journalists cap & start chasing jockeys back to the weighing room.

Every horse that doesn't win will likely have an excuse - not fit, draw, ground, jockey error, not trying (!), an off day, sand kicked in its face, not good enough etc etc.

Thats racing.

UrbanSea

That's fair enough. My concern today was it was a much better looking race than before. I'm sure he has a win in him soon, only been having small bets and in all honesty I probably will back him next time depending on the field

Imhof Tank

Overthelast wrote: »

Every horse that doesn't win will likely have an excuse - not fit, draw, ground, jockey error, not trying (!), an off day, sand kicked in its face, not good enough etc etc.

Thats racing.

I know that. The question is where do you draw the line. This horse today is now on a 14 race losing streak and will probably be 33/1 next time out if running in the same grade.

I just think its a dangerous trap to fall into - making too many excuses for horses.

In their Breeder's Cup preview show on Saturday ATR had an interesting discussion on "trip handicapping" in the US with punters analysing what results would have been without any bad rides, bad luck in running etc.

Trying to get an edge based on analysing the effects of bad luck in running doesnt appeal to me full stop. Even less so in Europe than the US with all our extra variables.

UrbanSea

No excuses today I watched it. It'd be naive for me to say that I'd back him next time out, especially if it's in anyway competitive.

One I probably will back next time out is Hamoody. Anyone interested watch the second last at Wolverhampton today. He must have lost the guts of 8 lengths at the start, detached for most of the race. Finished like an absolute train to be beaten around 4 and a half lengths

Overthelast

Imhof Tank wrote: »

I know that. The question is where do you draw the line. This horse today is now on a 14 race losing streak and will probably be 33/1 next time out if running in the same grade.

I just think its a dangerous trap to fall into - making too many excuses for horses.

In their Breeder's Cup preview show on Saturday ATR had an interesting discussion on "trip handicapping" in the US with punters analysing what results would have been without any bad rides, bad luck in running etc.

Trying to get an edge based on analysing the effects of bad luck in running doesnt appeal to me full stop. Even less so in Europe than the US with all our extra variables.

I missed the trip handicapping discussion on ATR so cannot pick up on that.

I will forgive a horse, that I'm actively following, 1 or 2 runs max where I feel the race conditions are spot on. No more than that. Thats where I'd draw the line, as a punter. If the horse is good enough, it should win when conditions are spot on.

Having viewed the replay of Keys of Cyprus, one could draw the conclusion he's not good enough -perhaps father time is catching up with him. However, there may well be another reason which we'll never know.

How many is too many? Not sure there's a definitive answer to that question but I've given you my limit above, for what its worth.


PS - just to throw a fly in the ointment, I'd pay the stable fees to give him one more go at 7F, and failing that, off with his head (the horse that is!!).