Post match study group

BettorAssist

Would any of ye be interested in forming a study group that would analyse a high profile match that did not follow the stats and by doing so learn what pitfalls to watch out for when evaluating your bets in future.

Basically I propose that we select one match each week (Tottenham v Wigan this week for example).

To keep a good standard you would have to get the full match footage (torrent?) and contribute a write up at least 1 in 3 weeks within 7 days that is coming from a betting perspective obviously. Copying an online review would get you removed from the group.

Drop a post in the thread if you would be interested in pitching in.

yesno1234

BettorAssist wrote: »

Would any of ye be interested in forming a study group that would analyse a high profile match that did not follow the stats and by doing so learn what pitfalls to watch out for when evaluating your bets in future.

Basically I propose that we select one match each week (Tottenham v Wigan this week for example).

To keep a good standard you would have to get the full match footage (torrent?) and contribute a write up at least 1 in 3 weeks within 7 days that is coming from a betting perspective obviously. Copying an online review would get you removed from the group.

Drop a post in the thread if you would be interested in pitching in.

Stat's can't account for a team having an off-day. I think what you're suggesting would just be a waste of time imo. It's nigh on impossible to predict a team not playing well in a future match.

Plus, anyways premiership betting should be kept away from about 99% of the time. It's the most widely reported league in the world, everyone knows everything about every club which means it's an very rare thing that a trader would price it up incorrectly to give you any sort of value. Same can pretty much be said for all the top league's across Europe.

BettorAssist

Tottenham having a bad day may well explain that particular result.

Over a few matches different situations will be encountered and analysed that would make any partipicant a more knowledgeable punter.

Austria!

This is too many words because I'm not quite sure what I'm on about, but hopefully it will spark some discussion. I don't mean to derail your thread if you're convinced about the match report idea, but that's not the way I'm reading you.

I'm all for learning about teams, but I'm not quite sure what a match report from a betting perspective would look like and that it's the most efficient approach. Not particularly sceptical, just unsure.

I notice that in the tips thread people say things like "X are playing really well and Y is back from suspension this week, so I fancy them to beat Z who have only won 1 of the last 5 away" which is fine, but it's a bit vague. Villa playing really well is a very different prospect to United playing well, and playing well is a subjective measure anyway. Some teams get plenty of possession and look good, but they're not making or taking enough chances (Liverpool).

I think we should try to evaluate teams more generally, outside the context of individual matches. Are Fulham a top 8 team? A top 10 team? A top 12 team? It's possible to assess that, and it's seems to me to be more important than something ephemeral or recent like their form in the last two matches. Football is a game with plenty of variance (Spurs vs Wigan) as it's so low scoring, and I think you have to see the underlying quality of teams to make value bets which are going to serve you long term.

I think some sort of projection of the final table would be useful, and one which took into account banding (for me there's a clear top 3, and a clear top 8). I think banding is important for analysis in many cases to get a big enough sample, for example this top top post on the fabulous bet of the week: http://betoftheweek.net/2010/10/advanced-football-pricing-outsiders/

BettorAssist

If you look at just the top 5 leagues in Europe you are talking about close to 50 teams. It wouldn't be a suitable approach for this group and the premier league which most wont focus on exclusively is a terrible league from a betting perspective.

It would be much easier for casual punters to focus on one match that would be based on the teams that would draw most bettors attention such as in the German league Schalke in the win-draw-win market or in Italy you have Roma in the 2.5 goal market, in France you have the Ibramhovic goalscorer market or in Spain you have the Barcelona/Madrid handicap markets.

Alternatively the option would be there as a group for each person to take a small number of games and using footage or online reviews write up a short concise summary and as a group we can build an invaluable resource that we would build on each week as most people here who bet on foreign leagues base their bets on the extended league table which is only a small part of the process.

It takes a lot of work and dicipline to show a profit over the season so if someone wasn't pulling their weight they wouldn't get to benefit from the groups work.

keane2097

yesno1234 wrote: »

Plus, anyways premiership betting should be kept away from about 99% of the time. It's the most widely reported league in the world, everyone knows everything about every club which means it's an very rare thing that a trader would price it up incorrectly to give you any sort of value. Same can pretty much be said for all the top league's across Europe.

This is pretty much the exact opposite of what any professional sports bettor will tell you fwiw. Traders aren't interested in setting correct prices on large markets like the EPL, they're only interested on having equal action on either side, which is precisely the reason why they're so profitable.

keane2097

For the record, Austria's advice is exactly what any aspiring sports bettor should be looking at. I don't think analysing individual games - especially outliers as suggested in the OP - is going to be useful.

BettorAssist

Of course Austria is correct and the best approach to take and it is the method used by all the major bookmakers.

A group of people from here are never going to get together and do that properly. After the first 6 teams in most of the main European leagues almost nobody here will have a clue so if something is going to be organised here it has to be tailored to the audience.

keane2097

I'd be pretty surprised if you weren't able to find five or six people on this site interested in handicapping games properly if they had the correct methods explained to them properly. What you're talking about doing is a lot of effort in a similar direction but just with a much smaller reward.

If you decide to do it properly I'd be happy to chip in.

swiftman

hi everyone, im going to start my own thread tomorrow after research about a championship team, going to pick a team at random (well nearly) and learn and stat all there games and players, then since this is first week ill have to do the same with the team there playing, second week it will be easier as ill know most about the team im based with and therefore will have to review my team and work on the team there playing.

if your interested reply or 'like' this comment.

MichaelQ

^^^ did this happen? can't find it

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

So is anyone interested in a study group to discuss upcoming matches and dissect what we feel are the best bets over the weekend? I do this myself anyway but can always use fresh input and a different perspective!:D

MichaelQ

yesss!!! count me in

Matt_Trakker

sharing's caring

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Do we want to set up a small group or a different thread or should we just start here? If so what are we focusing on.

Matt_Trakker

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Do we want to set up a small group or a different thread or should we just start here? If so what are we focusing on.

I dunno maybe Mods'll want ya to do it in a new one?

I'm open to suggestions, the way I do my bets is I study upcoming fixtures, (EPL, Liga, Bundesliga, Seria A & Polish league) runs a few checks and pick matches where goals are likely and then I'll do further research on teams & stats to find good bets.
But I'm open to like picking a league and discussing what I'd pick for an upcoming round of fixtures.
I'm easy though, will go with what the majority want.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

I dunno maybe Mods'll want ya to do it in a new one?

I'm open to suggestions, the way I do my bets is I study upcoming fixtures, (EPL, Liga, Bundesliga, Seria A & Polish league) runs a few checks and pick matches where goals are likely and then I'll do further research on teams & stats to find good bets.
But I'm open to like picking a league and discussing what I'd pick for an upcoming round of fixtures.
I'm easy though, will go with what the majority want.

I'm easy enough too. I would say we all have a different approach but maybe mixing the knowledge we have along with a different perspective can allow us to make better bets.

MichaelQ

I'd say here is grand, focus on Liv vs ManU? dont mind

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

MichaelQ wrote: »

I'd say here is grand, focus on Liv vs ManU? dont mind

I would prefer to go through the fixtures and pick out what we think are the best bets and why.

MichaelQ

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

I would prefer to go through the fixtures and pick out what we think are the best bets and why.

But its a post match study group, as in after, ah sure never mind lets get crackin!

MichaelQ

This Weekends PL Fixtures

Saturday
QPR v Spurs
Villa v Southampton
Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Wigan
Norwich v Newcastle
Reading v WBA
Stoke v Chelsea
Sunderland v West Ham

Sunday

Man Utd v Liverpool
Arsenal v Man City

Thoughts?

Matt_Trakker

MichaelQ wrote: »

This Weekends PL Fixtures

Saturday
QPR v Spurs
Villa v Southampton
Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Wigan
Norwich v Newcastle
Reading v WBA
Stoke v Chelsea
Sunderland v West Ham

Sunday

Man Utd v Liverpool
Arsenal v Man City

Thoughts?

What's the deal then, ya want predictions/bets for every match?

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

What's the deal then, ya want predictions/bets for every match?

Well what I would suggest is that we all have our own methods of breaking games down before hand and identifying "best bets" for the weekend. I would suggest we come up with our own best bets and then examine it further, take on other peoples suggestions from there.

Saturday
QPR v Spurs
Villa v Southampton

Everton v Swansea
Fulham v Wigan

Norwich v Newcastle
Reading v WBA

Stoke v Chelsea
Sunderland v West Ham
Sunday

Man Utd v Liverpool
Arsenal v Man City



I've ruled out the above as I believe the games are too unpredictable to predict results and even goals are hard to predict in these encounters in my opinion as they could easily finish 1-0 or 4-3.

That leaves me with :

Everton v Swansea: Swansea with the league cup match on Wednesday a tough game against Arsenal last Sunday, Everton one of the inform teams in the league and at 4/7 I like them to win here at a bet able price. Will probably take a little on -1 as well although Everton had this crazy 15 game streak of 1-1, 2-2, 2-1 and 1-2 games going they ended it against Cheltenham last night and they have looked a little more potent up front recently.

Stoke v Chelsea: 2 bets here Stoke +1 @5/6 and a little money on the draw at halftime at 10/11. 5 of Stokes 10 home games have been level at half time, 11 of their 21 overall have been level at halftime. Arsenal, City(home), Chelsea(away) and Everton have all failed to lead at halftime against them. I actually am considering a little something on Stoke outright at 3/1. Tough place to go the Britannia.

QPR v Spurs: QPR are dreadful, until they show me otherwise I will be backing against them in every game. Spurs at 5/6 seems a gift to me.

Norwich v Newcastle : Norwich @6/5?? Really?? as Newcastle have won 0 away games this year and the loss of Demba ba will have a short term effect at the very least. Norwich have also been very tough at home and I fancy their chances of coming out on top here.

Matt_Trakker

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Everton bet looks good man, but I've gone for something different
Gone for a different on with Stoke too...but the +1AH for Stoke is excellent and good spot...just looked it up there now too, unbeaten at home so looks like a good one...but I've got for a Chelsea win

QPR=brutal, agree

Norwich agree

Right, sori boyz, this is long......
Researched all the matches, would prob bet on all bar two of them.
Early in the week so wouldn't put anything down until team news comes out.
Anyway, have a gander, lemme know what ya think.

Saturday
QPR v Spurs
+2.5 goals @ 1.75, +3 @ 2.34
5/8 QPR home games have gone overs
8/8 Spurs away games have been overs too
'arry'll want to park that auld bus of his, but it'll hardly matter, Spurs have scored 2 or more in 6/8 away games & have scored at least 1 in all 8


Villa v Southampton
Villa AH 0 @ 1.74
Villa = 1 win, 4 draws from 8, 3 loses
South = 1 win, 2 draws from 8, 5 loses.
Both teams are dire, probablility would indicate Villa are stronger, but I wouldn't bet on this match.
Borefest written all over this one.


Everton v Swansea
+10 corners (couldn't find markets up yet)
5/8 home Everton games have had +10 corners,
5/7 away Swansea games have the same stat
0/8 home Clean sheets for Everton
2/8 away clean sheets for Swansea
BTTS 1.83

Fulham v Wigan
Fulham have 1 clean sheet from 8,
Wigan, 2 from 8
BTTS is a measly 1.66
6/8 home Fulham games have been +2.5
6/8 away Wigan games have been +2.5
+2.5 @ 1.83

Norwich v Newcastle
Norwich win @ 2.22
Newcastle are brutal on the road, injuries to the hilt, no Ba etc.....but
they have scored in 7/8 away games while
Norwich have scored in 7/8 home games
+2.5 as well 1.75
BTTS

Reading v WBA
Reading have only lost 2/8 home games (Arsenal & ManU); 2 wins, 4 draws
WBA have 3 wins, 1 draw & 4 loses.
5/8 Reading home and Wigan away games have been +2.5 (@1.81)
I can see Reading edging this
Reading AH 0 @ 2.05

Stoke v Chelsea
Stoke unbeaten at home in last 8, but Chelski have been on a roll (away from home) since Rafa came in, scoring 6, conceding 1.
In same fixtures for Stoke (3 home), they've conceded 5, scored 7
Chelsea win @1.97
+2.5 @ 2.06

Sunderland v West Ham
Hammers have only won 1/6 last away matches, (3 loses & 1 draw from last 4)
Sunderland have scored in all of the last 4, but only won 2.
Think Sunderland would edge it, but no bet for me.
Another cringing borefest.


Sunday
Man Utd v Liverpool
6/8 home matches have been +2.5
Same stat for away lfc games
Both have only 2 cleans sheets from same 8 games

Head2head in last 5 matches at Old Toilet, 5/5 have been +2.5
ManU have won 4/5 of those matches &
have won 7/8 home games
lfc have 3 wins, 3 draws & 2 loses
United win @ 1.91
+2.5 is only around 1.60 so may as well go for +3 @2.0

Arsenal v Man City
Arsenal in 5 previous H2H home matches are unbeaten, 3 wins, 2 draws.
All games have been -2.5.

Arsenal have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in last 8 home games,
City have similar away stats, 5 wins, 2 draws & 1 lose.
5/8 home games have been +2.5
While 4/8 have been the same for Citeh.
Arsenal have scored in 7/8
City only 5/8
I think Arsenal will win @2.70, based on the H2H games...but....
Corners, 7/8 home games have been >10
7/8 away Citeh match have also been been >10
No prices yet on +10 corners though

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Everton bet looks good man, but I've gone for something different
Gone for a different on with Stoke too...but the +1AH for Stoke is excellent and good spot...just looked it up there now too, unbeaten at home so looks like a good one...but I've got for a Chelsea win

QPR=brutal, agree

Norwich agree

Right, sori boyz, this is long......
Researched all the matches, would prob bet on all bar two of them.
Early in the week so wouldn't put anything down until team news comes out.
Anyway, have a gander, lemme know what ya think.

Saturday
QPR v Spurs
+2.5 goals @ 1.75, +3 @ 2.34
5/8 QPR home games have gone overs
8/8 Spurs away games have been overs too
'arry'll want to park that auld bus of his, but it'll hardly matter, Spurs have scored 2 or more in 6/8 away games & have scored at least 1 in all 8


Villa v Southampton
Villa AH 0 @ 1.74
Villa = 1 win, 4 draws from 8, 3 loses
South = 1 win, 2 draws from 8, 5 loses.
Both teams are dire, probablility would indicate Villa are stronger, but I wouldn't bet on this match.
Borefest written all over this one.


Everton v Swansea
+10 corners (couldn't find markets up yet)
5/8 home Everton games have had +10 corners,
5/7 away Swansea games have the same stat
0/8 home Clean sheets for Everton
2/8 away clean sheets for Swansea
BTTS 1.83

Fulham v Wigan
Fulham have 1 clean sheet from 8,
Wigan, 2 from 8
BTTS is a measly 1.66
6/8 home Fulham games have been +2.5
6/8 away Wigan games have been +2.5
+2.5 @ 1.83

Norwich v Newcastle
Norwich win @ 2.22
Newcastle are brutal on the road, injuries to the hilt, no Ba etc.....but
they have scored in 7/8 away games while
Norwich have scored in 7/8 home games
+2.5 as well 1.75
BTTS

Reading v WBA
Reading have only lost 2/8 home games (Arsenal & ManU); 2 wins, 4 draws
WBA have 3 wins, 1 draw & 4 loses.
5/8 Reading home and Wigan away games have been +2.5 (@1.81)
I can see Reading edging this
Reading AH 0 @ 2.05

Stoke v Chelsea
Stoke unbeaten at home in last 8, but Chelski have been on a roll (away from home) since Rafa came in, scoring 6, conceding 1.
In same fixtures for Stoke (3 home), they've conceded 5, scored 7
Chelsea win @1.97
+2.5 @ 2.06

Sunderland v West Ham
Hammers have only won 1/6 last away matches, (3 loses & 1 draw from last 4)
Sunderland have scored in all of the last 4, but only won 2.
Think Sunderland would edge it, but no bet for me.
Another cringing borefest.


Sunday
Man Utd v Liverpool
6/8 home matches have been +2.5
Same stat for away lfc games
Both have only 2 cleans sheets from same 8 games

Head2head in last 5 matches at Old Toilet, 5/5 have been +2.5
ManU have won 4/5 of those matches &
have won 7/8 home games
lfc have 3 wins, 3 draws & 2 loses
United win @ 1.91
+2.5 is only around 1.60 so may as well go for +3 @2.0

Arsenal v Man City
Arsenal in 5 previous H2H home matches are unbeaten, 3 wins, 2 draws.
All games have been -2.5.

Arsenal have 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in last 8 home games,
City have similar away stats, 5 wins, 2 draws & 1 lose.
5/8 home games have been +2.5
While 4/8 have been the same for Citeh.
Arsenal have scored in 7/8
City only 5/8
I think Arsenal will win @2.70, based on the H2H games...but....
Corners, 7/8 home games have been >10
7/8 away Citeh match have also been been >10
No prices yet on +10 corners though

Interesting reading mate. I like the insight. Will look at the Chelsea game again although I'm pretty strong on that one.Stoke at home just dont lose.

If I was taking a punt United and City is a good priced double!

MichaelQ

All great stuff haven't time tonight, i'll put up my thoughts tommorrow

Matt_Trakker

As well, with Villa playing last night and Chelski & Swansea tonight, I'd be wary of both their games...but yea, as I said before I wouldn't put anything on until Sat morning when team news is out

Austria!

This is very interesting for anyone who wants to gamble. Especially table 1.8 on the second last page.

Season predictions from Sporting Index

MichaelQ

Swansea's particularly sized squad isn't exactly suited for 2 cup runs and a league campaign so i expect fatigue & rotation to play a part in their form, this week? maybe,

'My big bet' Norwich 14/11 v Newcastle

Austria!

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

Norwich v Newcastle
Norwich win @ 2.22
Newcastle are brutal on the road, injuries to the hilt, no Ba etc.....but
they have scored in 7/8 away games while
Norwich have scored in 7/8 home games
+2.5 as well 1.75
BTTS

I'm not even commenting on the value here, just the reasoning.
This is a little sloppy. 2 things decide Newcastle's scoring rate away.

1. How good Newcastle attack is away from home.
2. How good is the opposition's defence at home.

You only mentioned Newcastle's scoring record away from home, and didn't comment on the fact that Norwich have kept clean sheets in 40% of their home games.

Similarly with Norwich you only looked at their attacking performance, with no regard to the actual defence they're facing in the next match.

Matt_Trakker

Austria! wrote: »

You only mentioned Newcastle's scoring record away from home, and didn't comment on the fact that Norwich have kept clean sheets in 40% of their home games.

Similarly with Norwich you only looked at their attacking performance, with no regard to the actual defence they're facing in the next match.

I don't look back over the whole season, only last 8 games, the season is too long for me.
And even in saying that, they've conceded in all of their last 4 matches, I wouldn't bet on them keeping a clean sheet today.

Anyway, the bets I am goin with today:
Fulham win,
Norwich win
Everton Swansea BTTS
and from the Championship
Hull win

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

I don't look back over the whole season, only last 8 games, the season is too long for me.
And even in saying that, they've conceded in all of their last 4 matches, I wouldn't bet on them keeping a clean sheet today.

Anyway, the bets I am goin with today:
Fulham win,
Norwich win
Everton Swansea BTTS
and from the Championship
Hull win

Bad weekend then Matt!

Right I think if we're going to have a serious study group I think maybe we need some sort of plan.

All we did this week is give our own picks and the reasoning for them. Full European Schedule this coming weekend means an awful lot more to look at. But also alot more value out there.

Matt_Trakker

damn right, back to the drawing board for me

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

well can we come up with some sort of plan to have a look at games? What should we do with regards to study? We looking at goals in games? Or to pick sides?

Matt_Trakker

Yea, we can do goals if ya like, Bundesliga is back on Friday, great league for Overs

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

well basically we all need to concentrate our efforts on finding value in the fixture list across the board. If its going to be a study group we need to be on the same wavelength.

So lets say we take goals and we're looking for value in all the fixtures for next weekend. I'll take a look at Premier League, Championship, French Ligue 1 and La Liga tonight.

Matt_Trakker

OK, that'll just leave me with the Bundesliga, League One and Seria A

Will try and get stuff up for tonight

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Matt_Trakker wrote: »

OK, that'll just leave me with the Bundesliga, League One and Seria A

Will try and get stuff up for tonight

I wouldnt mind if you actually looked over the same leagues as I did and see if we come up with the same games?

BettorAssist

If ye are serious about making an effort with this project this weekend I would suggest Stuttgart v Bayern Munich this weekend. Also each team is quite well exposed so as to make the analysis a good bit easier.

Home and Away form combined with the H2H strategies these teams deploy to counter eachothers strengths make this a very interesting match to analyse.

It would be good to give an indepth preview and review that takes into account your preview would be an interesting exercise and would help focus your thinking when analysing other matches.

If possible, adding what you think the true odds for your chosen selection and therefore the perceived value would add a lot of credibility to your analysis.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Myself and Matt have had a few conversations about what we like goals wise over the last couple of weekends. Started out so and so, had a decent weekend last weekend. I think goals is the way to go. Picking out the overs seems to me to be an easier way of making money.

I'm not sure if the group has ever really gotten going but I wouldnt mind having a look at that type of preview review either.