JNLR 25 Oct 2012

chilloutrelax

Latest JNLR Press Release Oct 2011-Sept 2012 available 5pm today 25th October 2012.
Looking forward to the usual spin...We are number one for people who use electric toothbrushes etc etc

Who actually falls for it???

padd b1975

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Who actually falls for it???

Advertisers.

chilloutrelax

padd b1975 wrote: »

Advertisers.

Are they really that stupid?

heybaby

So good news for fm 104, radio 1,spin 103.8 newstalk in Dublin, bad news for 98 fm, 4fm q102 and Nova.

http://www.bai.ie/?p=2865

padd b1975

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Are they really that stupid?

Its supposed to be the survey they take most notice of.

More Music

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Latest JNLR Press Release Oct 2011-Sept 2012 available 5pm today 25th October 2012.
Looking forward to the usual spin...We are number one for people who use electric toothbrushes etc etc

Who actually falls for it???

Nobody falls for anything.

The headline figures released by the stations themselves is station PR. What do you expect them to say....."we're getting a hiding again from Today FM"?

Advertising agencies use the very detailed raw data which comes from JNLR. Are you saying their data isn't truthful?

JNLR is the only horse in town and it's a tool that everybody uses.

It shouldn't affect your listening habits. If you like a station, keep listening. Don't let station PR change your mind.

Infoanon

heybaby wrote: »

So good news for fm 104, radio 1,spin 103.8 newstalk in Dublin, bad news for 98 fm, 4fm q102 and Nova.

http://www.bai.ie/?p=2865

Lead story on Nova's 6pm news was their ratings success with Kevin Branigan thanking the listeners in Dublin/Kildare/Meath/Wicklow etc

4FM 6pm news also featured a piece on their success.

ghostdancer

Infoanon wrote: »

Lead story on Nova's 6pm news was their ratings success with Kevin Branigan thanking the listeners in Dublin/Kildare/Meath/Wicklow etc

4FM 6pm news also featured a piece on their success.

almost every station bullsh1ts about the figures by cherry-picking certain data that can make them look good.

More Music

ghostdancer wrote: »

almost every station bullsh1ts about the figures by cherry-picking certain data that can make them look good.

What do you expect them to do?

If Tubridy is down by 5,000 and Hector is up by 8,000 what fact do you expect 2fm will shout loudest about?

All stations will find something to cheer about, however tenuous.

Bard

padd b1975 wrote: »

Its supposed to be the survey they take most notice of.

It should be... they apparently survey 15,6000 people to get their figures. That's a pretty good sample size if you ask me!

http://www.radionation.ie/content.php?r=195-JNLR-October-2012-news-roundup

blue4ever

From Ipsos MRBI:
"Interviewing is conducted face-to-face, in-home, among a sample of c.15,600 individuals aged 15+ in the Republic of Ireland. Interviewing is conducted across 50 weeks of the year (exception week before and after Christmas)"

Results here: http://goo.gl/BPSph

RadioAnalyst

Where to start with the JNLRs this time around? I'm happy to answer any ratings related queries anyone has but this is my summary of this quarter with a particular focus on Dublin. My backround as I have said before is advertising rather than directly in radio but I have worked in radio in the past.

The advisory note I give everybody when looking at JNLR results is to watch the trends rather than the book to book variations which are often as a result of mathematical adjustments and the natural variation that happens in sampling. There are some very good posters on here who work on a Year on Year basis and others on a book by book basis but my preference and that of much of the advertising industry is to watch trends as they emerge.

The good: FM104 have had a remarkable result again with a market share which has grown steadily over a number of years now and has reached 13.6% which is a phonomenal achievement. They added 1.4% in this quarter alone but the trend has been showing this climb for quite some time. The less they change things, the better they perform. There is a lesson in there for many of the players in the market or indeed any market. Good book too for RTE Radio 1 (in Dublin), Newstalk and even Sunshine 106.8 who put on a respectable .3% although this goes somewhat against the recent trends so we will have to keep an eye on that one. Good book again for Spin 103.8, putting on .4% and continuing their upward trend of the last couple of years. Impressive performance from a consistent performer.

For everyone else it wasn't nearly so good. Obviously it was a shockingly bad book for 98FM who have been dropping like a stone for a couple of years now and the constant changing of PDs, music and schedules has done nothing to stabilise the situation. This is not a surprise. Given that it is its owners pet project, it seems to be more open to panic moves doubtless following calls from said owner than other stations. Another new schedule from next week with some odd choices, will be very interesting to see what direction they are heading this time. Problem they now have is that nobody knows what 98 stands for anymore and that is what requires the real attention.

Bad book too for 4FM and Nova. The two stations are faced with very different problems. 4FMs main problem is that in Dublin at least it has failed to convince anyone of what it actually stands for (sound familiar?) with the result that it is seen as a poor mans Q102. Despite the fact that the quality of its output is good, it has failed to gain any traction and the slip back, while not unexpected, is worrying for them. From elsewhere in the house the Nova slide is also not surprising given that this is what happens to every classic rock station in the world after their initial peak but the real test of Nova now is what they do about it. They handle the publicity/advertising side very well, much better than any other Dublin station but the output is surprisingly stale at this stage.

Bad book too for Lyric FM, but that too bucks recent trends so I would be interested to see what happens to them in the next couple of quarters.

What can you say about Phantom? I think I described them as green milers after the last quarter but this time they must seriously be circling the drain now. The listened yesterday figure has continued its downward trend which has now continued for over two years (8 books) and they have now dropped to 15,000 listeners per day which is giving them a mere 1% listened yesterday reach and a 0.7% share. 6 Month books show a marginal increase of 1,000 per day but from such a low base it is hard to see how they can possibly survive without a major relaunch and rebirth. Their closest competitors in scale are Sunshine 106.8 who have twice their daily audience and more than 3 times their market share.

That about covers the Dublin market for now. Keep a continuing eye on the number of people turning off radio altogether, particularly in the 15-24 age group, we're now down to 76%, overall its now 81%.

RadioAnalyst

blue4ever

"Given that it is its owners pet project, it seems to be more open to panic moves doubtless following calls from said owner than other stations"

I'm glad that was vocalised - and it's a worrying attribute accross all the owners stations and, more recently, other media interests.
Anyhoo...
Yea, the issue of last book or last year. I worked in print most (all media) and opt for year on year. In my last post there's a link - its the analysis. But also a few graphs charting stations over the last 13 surveys (back to 09Q3) - and really that's the only way to really visualise what's happening.

twinklerunner

RadioAnalyst wrote: »

Where to start with the JNLRs this time around? I'm happy to answer any ratings related queries anyone has but this is my summary of this quarter with a particular focus on Dublin. My backround as I have said before is advertising rather than directly in radio but I have worked in radio in the past.

RadioAnalyst

Do you know why RTÉ RnaG isn't included in the ratings?

GSF

twinklerunner wrote: »

Do you know why RTÉ RnaG isn't included in the ratings?

presumably because they dont pay to be included because they dont sell advertising

L1011

The argument is that as they don't sell advertising, its not worth it. In reality, the fact that their state funding would be drawn seriously in to question if the figures were as low as expected is more likely it... particularly as they have expensive separate facilities etc.

Mitch epitag

Lol at 4fm calling themselfs the fastest growing station in europe. There are internet bedroom stations growing faster than them.

GSF

MYOB wrote: »

The argument is that as they don't sell advertising, its not worth it. In reality, the fact that their state funding would be drawn seriously in to question if the figures were as low as expected is more likely it... particularly as they have expensive separate facilities etc.

They should be included in the "Other Listening" bucket though, should they not?

Max Headroom

Infoanon wrote: »

Lead story on Nova's 6pm news was their ratings success with Kevin Branigan thanking the listeners in Dublin/Kildare/Meath/Wicklow etcQUOTE]

Had the misfortune of having to listen to Nova the other day.......i swear, i lost count of the number of times they played Foreigner's Hot Blooded ......sad..:(

heybaby

Mitch epitag wrote: »

Lol at 4fm calling themselfs the fastest growing station in europe. There are internet bedroom stations growing faster than them.

That was a funny comment and not far off. The only thing that surprises me about 4fM is that they are still in existence at all, I know radio stations in their initial years always lose money but generally thats offset by a credible increase in listenership , alas 4FM is losing money and listeners, a situation that really isnt not sustainable especially 4 years after they first started to broadcast. Without Dublin 4FM is dead on its feet. 4 years down the line they have 1 percent of the Dublin market, their stablemates Sunshine have a multiple of that and really if you're getting trounced in the listenership figures by sunshine you have a big big problem.

RadioAnalyst

To answer a couple of questions brought up. The JNLR is a paid-for survey by those with a commercial interest in Radio. So it's the advertisers and the commercial stations who foot the bill to see who is listening to what, when and most importantly for how long. Stations without a commercial imperative (like RnaG, Community radio) etc tend not to subscribe and indeed the cost of subscribing for them would be prohibitive.

Don't ever be surprised by any spin that stations put on their JNLR figures. Any CEO worth his or her salt will find some statistic in there somewhere to draw comfort from and pass on to their shareholders and advertisers. Its self-preservation and it is entirely understandable if not a bit ridiculous sometimes. The lines being put out by 4, Nova and Phantom this time around are particularly ridiculous but looking past the spin you can find the actual figures.

Declan A Walsh

heybaby wrote: »

That was a funny comment and not far off. The only thing that surprises me about 4fM is that they are still in existence at all, I know radio stations in their initial years always lose money but generally thats offset by a credible increase in listenership , alas 4FM is losing money and listeners, a situation that really isnt not sustainable especially 4 years after they first started to broadcast. Without Dublin 4FM is dead on its feet. 4 years down the line they have 1 percent of the Dublin market, their stablemates Sunshine have a multiple of that and really if you're getting trounced in the listenership figures by sunshine you have a big big problem.

In relation to 4FM, it started broadcasting in February 2009, which is 4 months short of 4 years... just in the interests of accuracy. I do believe at this stage that if it were no longer broadcasting to Dublin that 4FM would be in a much healthier position. The problem is that it got the licence on the basis of a multi-city licence, which also includes Limerick, Cork and Galway, as well as Co. Clare. The Dublin market is saturated with stations competing for similar or overlapping audiences. The other geographical areas covered are better for 4FM for that reason.

L1011

GSF wrote: »

They should be included in the "Other Listening" bucket though, should they not?

I presume so, but clearly that bucket contains a lot more than them (pirates, Spirit, BBC, etc, etc).

RadioAnalyst

Declan A Walsh wrote: »

..I do believe at this stage that if it were no longer broadcasting to Dublin that 4FM would be in a much healthier position. The problem is that it got the licence on the basis of a multi-city licence, which also includes Limerick, Cork and Galway, as well as Co. Clare. The Dublin market is saturated with stations competing for similar or overlapping audiences. The other geographical areas covered are better for 4FM for that reason.

Declan, I always enjoy your posts and those of the other radio-heads on this board. I'm not sure that I agree with your logic about 4FM though. The point was made earlier about the Dublin-centric nature of the ad agencies and the struggles of the iRadio group has been testament to that but I see your point.

Trouble for 4FM now is though, what do they do? If they decide to go non-Dublin centred then the JNLR figure will always be there to knock them back in the eyes of the agencies and if they go very Dublin-centred then they really have a battle on their hands to pull listeners away from Q102 in particular. Either way, they are in a real spot of bother at the moment.

Some very interesting stats in the Carat summary of the JNLR results too as well as of course in the excellent iLevel summaries (using the different comparitive scales). The loss of male audience for Nova and Phantom is quite pronounced and while Nova may have a decent reach to play with, Phantom most certainly do not and this has contributed to their lowest ever, and peculiarly scewed audience. They would appear to be XFM London in disguise in terms of their performance. Nova would need to think hard too about what it is that is turning their male audience in particular off.

The Carat data shows up some of the minor movements in the national picture and the iLevel graphs show the trajectory of 2FM clearly. Also interestingly it shows the continuing drop, in small increments, of Today FMs reach in Dublin relative to it's non-Dublin performance. Definitely something Today FM will have to keep an eye on. 98FM and Q102 have dropped fairly serious numbers in the last 12 months so will be watching that carefully too.

heybaby

RadioAnalyst wrote: »

Declan, I always enjoy your posts and those of the other radio-heads on this board. I'm not sure that I agree with your logic about 4FM though. The point was made earlier about the Dublin-centric nature of the ad agencies and the struggles of the iRadio group has been testament to that but I see your point.

Trouble for 4FM now is though, what do they do? If they decide to go non-Dublin centred then the JNLR figure will always be there to knock them back in the eyes of the agencies and if they go very Dublin-centred then they really have a battle on their hands to pull listeners away from Q102 in particular. Either way, they are in a real spot of bother at the moment.

Some very interesting stats in the Carat summary of the JNLR results too as well as of course in the excellent iLevel summaries (using the different comparitive scales). The loss of male audience for Nova and Phantom is quite pronounced and while Nova may have a decent reach to play with, Phantom most certainly do not and this has contributed to their lowest ever, and peculiarly scewed audience. They would appear to be XFM London in disguise in terms of their performance. Nova would need to think hard too about what it is that is turning their male audience in particular off.

The Carat data shows up some of the minor movements in the national picture and the iLevel graphs show the trajectory of 2FM clearly. Also interestingly it shows the continuing drop, in small increments, of Today FMs reach in Dublin relative to it's non-Dublin performance. Definitely something Today FM will have to keep an eye on. 98FM and Q102 have dropped fairly serious numbers in the last 12 months so will be watching that carefully too.

Although 98 FM are all over the place at the moment and are undergoing a raft of changes again I'd expect them to get it right this time and by next year they should have definitely stopped the rot and should move to third in Dublin.

In the meantime I would expect q102 to continue to drop listeners and drop to 4th in Dublin while spin will move to second. Q102 is sounding jaded and moving Scott Williams to breakfast is a backwards step. Plus, by playing 40mins of music without talking, they are taking the more music less talk theory to extremes.

FM 104 will remain top because they have a clearly defined identity and they appeal to the broadest audience which gives them a slight advantage over the self styled youth station spin 103.8. People have been asking what is Fm104's secret? Personally I think they have stuck rigidly to their music format and their jocks stick to the script, I find it incredibly dull radio but in the absence of a credible rival,it will continue to thrive.

Phantom at this stage is on life support and must be hemorrhaging money, much like 4fm. The irony about 4fm is that musicwise and jockwise they are sounding good now, in fact they are a better product than Q102, but they have lost the battle for Dublin listeners, without which they cannot survive.

GSF

heybaby wrote: »

The irony about 4fm is that musicwise and jockwise they are sounding good now, in fact they are a better product than Q102, but they have lost the battle for Dublin listeners, without which they cannot survive.

I think that is just a lot of "jock talk" where jocks dont like Q102 cause they dont get to hear the sound of their own voice much and share their thoughts on life and the world at length.

Fact is the listenership of Q102 has been built up over time and is quite loyal. Its only dropping because it isnt spending as much on promotion as the others and others are targeting their audience by spending a lot.

And to believe that 98FM will bounce back because it changes the decks again is wishful thinking. Changing things frequently is guaranteed to drive figures down, its continuity of approach that builds listenership.

blue4ever

You can see where exactly Q is loosing out - mornings & evenings. Their share of ears outside those this is actually competitive.

gbee

chilloutrelax wrote: »

Are they really that stupid?

Yes. :rolleyes: THANK Goodness

GSF

blue4ever wrote: »

You can see where exactly Q is loosing out - mornings & evenings. Their share of ears outside those this is actually competitive.

From what I've heard of Q102 in the mornings now they have a nearly 10 minute news bulletin at 7am and 8am followed by pretty much non stop music til the 7.30/8.30 news headlines (except for ads).

Interestingly Magic in London are now doing a lot more talk in the mornings than they used to. They had Dawn French as a guest at 8.10am today for example. Outside of breakfast & drive they do mostly 40 minutes talk free music sweeps. i wonder if Q102 arent missing a trick in copying that, although the 20% talk rule makes it difficult for them to do a direct copy.