Ireland set to exit bailout programme.

goodie2shoes

Once again we're best boy in class and the 8th review of the Troika program has gone well.
The troika and especially Europe need a success story, and we look like it.

Should we be pleased with ourselves?
Will we be rewarded for being so good?
Has the Govt's strategy been proven to be correct?

Scofflaw

Not sure we're quite at the door yet:

Statement by the EC, ECB, and IMF on the Review Mission to Ireland


Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Dublin during October 16–25, 2012 for the eighth review of the government’s economic programme and also met with a variety of stakeholder groups. Policy implementation remains steadfast despite the challenging external environment, helping Ireland to start to regain market access. It is expected that fiscal targets for 2012 will be met despite expenditure overruns in some areas, and the authorities are committed to the 2013 deficit ceiling of 7.5 percent of GDP. Banks remain well-capitalised and downsizing has progressed well, yet further efforts are needed to address their profitability and asset quality challenges. In line with the euro area summit conclusions of 29 June, EC/ECB/IMF teams continued to discuss with the authorities possible technical solutions to improve the sustainability of the well-performing adjustment programme.

Ireland's gradual economic recovery has continued, but largely due to weaker net exports, real GDP growth has slowed to a projected rate of ½ percent in 2012. Domestic demand and employment continue to decline owing to ongoing household balance sheet repair, the weak labour market, and low lending to households and SMEs. Prospects for growth in 2013 are for modest pick up to just over 1 percent as domestic demand declines moderately, although weak trading partner growth may continue to dampen net exports despite Irish competitiveness gains.

However, unemployment remains unacceptably high, especially among the youth, making job creation and growth a key priority. Accordingly, plans are progressing to utilise resources from the European Investment Bank, the National Pension Reserve Fund, and private investors to finance job-rich projects in several sectors. The Action Plan for Jobs will contribute to employment generation through a wide range of measures. It is also important to ensure that job seekers are well prepared to fill positions when they become available by strengthening employment and training services through vigorous implementation of the Pathways to Work initiative. Engagement with the long-term unemployed should be a priority, including through timely and well designed involvement of the private sector in providing employment services.

It is expected that fiscal targets for 2012 will be met. Revenues remain ahead of profile in the first three quarters of 2012, which, together with expenditure restraint in several areas, has offset expenditure overruns in the health sector, and also on social welfare owing to higher unemployment. The authorities are alert to the health sector overruns and are determined to meet the programme target for a budget deficit below 7.5 percent of GDP in 2013. The measures adopted in Budget 2013 should be durable, as growth-friendly as possible, and minimise the burden of adjustment on the most vulnerable.

The authorities are ramping up reforms to restore the health of the Irish financial sector so that it can help support economic recovery. Intensified efforts are required to deal decisively with mortgage arrears and further reduce bank operating costs. Parliament is currently considering an ambitious reform of the personal insolvency framework. For this essential reform to succeed, a careful balance should be struck that addresses borrower’s financial distress and protects the family home, while also reinforcing debt service discipline. An orderly phasing out of the costly Eligible Liability Guarantee Scheme would improve bank profitability and thereby support lending capacity.

Market conditions for Irish bonds are much improved, bringing benchmark 8-year yields below 5 percent, underpinned by Ireland's robust policy implementation under its EU-IMF supported programme. Significant yield declines also reflect the euro area leaders' statement on June 29 and the ECB's announcement of Outright Monetary Transactions in early September. Ireland has started to regain market access, including through government bond issues. This achievement, despite Ireland's still rising public debt, underlines investor confidence in Ireland’s capacity to implement adjustment policies as well as market expectations of European support for Ireland. Nonetheless, significant risks remain along the path back to full reliance on market funding, requiring continued determined policy efforts by the Irish authorities.

The key objectives of Ireland’s EU-IMF supported programme are to address financial sector weaknesses and put Ireland’s economy on the path of sustainable growth, sound finances and job creation, while protecting the poor and most vulnerable. The programme includes loans from the European Union and EU member states amounting to €45 billion and a €22.5 billion Extended Fund Facility with the IMF. Conclusion of this review would make available a disbursement of €0.9 billion by the IMF and €0.8 billion by the EFSM/EFSF, with EU member states expected to disburse a further €0.5 billion through bilateral loans. The next review mission is scheduled for January 2013.

cordially,
Scofflaw

bbsrs

goodie2shoes wrote: »

Once again we're best boy in class and the 8th review of the Troika program has gone well.
The troika and especially Europe need a success story, and we look like it.

Should we be pleased with ourselves?
Will we be rewarded for being so good?
Has the Govt's strategy been proven to be correct?

I feel poorer from the whole experience!

goodie2shoes

bbsrs wrote: »

I feel poorer from the whole experience!

i suppose a lot depends on what kind of deal we eventually get.
i do think Angela will be keen to hold us up a "proof" that austerity works.

Head The Wall

So they acknowledge that there are still problems with budget overruns in the health sector, massive unemployment, major mortgage arrears problem, weak external markets, banks still not lending and they expect people to believe that things are grand.

Well I ain't buying it, there is also mention of another "jobs" package in there. The other ones have obviously been a roaring success, so let's throw some more sh#t at the wall and hopefully some will sick.

No mention of our export that is doing the most to help Ireland's financial situation - our emigrants. Every one gone reduces the social welfare budget and the dole numbers so it's a double whammy for the govt bean counters.

goalscoringhero

goodie2shoes wrote: »

i suppose a lot depends on what kind of deal we eventually get.
i do think Angela will be keen to hold us up a "proof" that austerity works.

Yawn...What's this 'deal' about? Austerity was imposed by the Irish government, not Angie.
The particular choices of the cuts are down to our Irish leaders, not anyone else.
What has Angie got to do with it when some Irish government decided to roll out a blanket guarantee for the Irish banking debt? (apart from the fact that she likely would want to see the debt-train slowing down before it hits Germany / the German banks, in particular Deutsche..)

Nothing personal goodie2shoes, perhaps just a good time to reflect a little on what is fed to us all the time.

Bits_n_Bobs

"Domestic demand and employment continue to decline owing to ongoing household balance sheet repair, the weak labour market, and low lending to households and SMEs."

All true but....the reduction in government spend and increase in tax surely has something to do with domestic demand declining? Or maybe pointing out the obvious elephant in the room is something the Troika have picked up from our home grown eejits. I mean - "elected officials".

M three

Hold on a second, the government are talking about exiting the bailout program and RETURNING to the markets.
So back to borrowing money like arseholes again.

When are the banks we were forced to invest in going to be sold so we can recoup that 62 BILLION we pumped into them?
Plus massive interest I might add.

Bits_n_Bobs

M three wrote: »

Hold on a second, the government are talking about exiting the bailout program and RETURNING to the markets.
So back to borrowing money like arseholes again.

When are the banks we were forced to invest in going to be sold so we can recoup that 62 BILLION we pumped into them?
Plus massive interest I might add.

Completely agree. Plus we will, in all likelihood, end up paying more in interest rates on this much vaunted "return to markets". I fail to see why this is a win for the Irish people.

Regardless - without a political eu deal on our debt it's not sustainable, so it's pie in the sky stuff at the moment and a red herring to help get the budget through without too much blood on the streets.

M three

Lead item on tonights 9pm rte news is 4 million of foreign aid gone missing in Uganda.
No word about the missing 62 billion here.
I hope all Irish people know that the rte news is the biggest government propaganda tool in this country.

View

M three wrote: »

Lead item on tonights 9pm rte news is 4 million of foreign aid gone missing in Uganda.

Well thankfully that would never happen here.

I mean, who even talks about millions when it comes to our budget anymore?

M three

View wrote: »

Well thankfully that would never happen here.

I mean, who even talks about millions when it comes to our budget anymore?

Eamon Gilmore? 14 million is what he's going to save by illegally denying a mobility allowance to over 66 year olds.

But its ok, he has to get legal opinion, before he can seek a report, before he can deliberate, before he can put it to cabinet, before he can long finger the idea of changing the decision.

None of these ****ers ever need to seek a legal decision when it comes to paying out billions on an speculative investment in government bonds.

Oh no, denying bondholders would affect our "standing" in the eyes of the "markets"

But if you're over 66, disabled and an Irish citizen, you can **** off according to eamon gilmore

[Jackass]

M three wrote: »

Eamon Gilmore? 14 million is what he's going to save by illegally denying a mobility allowance to over 66 year olds.

But its ok, he has to get legal opinion, before he can seek a report, before he can deliberate, before he can put it to cabinet, before he can long finger the idea of changing the decision.

None of these ****ers ever need to seek a legal decision when it comes to paying out billions on an speculative investment in government bonds.

Oh no, denying bondholders would affect our "standing" in the eyes of the "markets"

But if you're over 66, disabled and an Irish citizen, you can **** off according to eamon gilmore

I think you'll find that referring legislation for legal opinion is just about present in every Democracy in the world, for legal wording and constitutionality and is a function of Government.

Your response is an emotional one, but this whole "burn the bond holders" is just a buzz word for "I don't want to be affected by austerity"...

If the Government had "burned the bondholders" instead of making some cuts, that money would be long spent by now.

And in a thread entitled "Ireland about to exit bailout programme", you have to wonder about the wisdom of getting our credit standing into the muck after all the hard work we have done to improve our name, and a "burning of bond holders" to make savings now would cost us 10 fold in the long run on massively inflated interest payments on yields for bonds we will have to sell one way or another to finance this country in the near future.

"Exiting the bailout programme, oh great, more loans to get by?" is exactly the point. How long do you want (and expect) Europe to be wiping our arse? They owe us nothing, yet there seems to be a sense of entitlement and resentment around Ireland that we were "good boys", as though we should have been running a muck and being defiant and petulant at the very time that we are, quite literally, begging for money in Europe...

M three

[Jackass] wrote: »

I think you'll find that referring legislation for legal opinion is just about present in every Democracy in the world, for legal wording and constitutionality and is a function of Government.

Your response is an emotional one, but this whole "burn the bond holders" is just a buzz word for "I don't want to be affected by austerity"...

If the Government had "burned the bondholders" instead of making some cuts, that money would be long spent by now.

And in a thread entitled "Ireland about to exit bailout programme", you have to wonder about the wisdom of getting our credit standing into the muck after all the hard work we have done to improve our name, and a "burning of bond holders" to make savings now would cost us 10 fold in the long run on massively inflated interest payments on yields for bonds we will have to sell one way or another to finance this country in the near future.

"Exiting the bailout programme, oh great, more loans to get by?" is exactly the point. How long do you want (and expect) Europe to be wiping our arse? They owe us nothing, yet there seems to be a sense of entitlement and resentment around Ireland that we were "good boys", as though we should have been running a muck and being defiant and petulant at the very time that we are, quite literally, begging for money in Europe...

I think you'll find that selectively referring legislation for legal opinion in this country is a means of passing the buck and stalling.
Are you seriously suggesting that it is necessary (with regard to the denial of the mobility allowance to over 66 year olds) to refer this for legal opinion, when the ombudswoman emily o'reilly has already said its illegal?

Did you not already know that? Or maybe you did and are just pushing bull**** for the government.

As for the rest of your post, yeah such a super job the government is doing turning 62 billion worth of PRIVATE debt into soverign debt.

Brendan Howlin raving on about how we're meeting targets. Would that be rising emigration, rising unemployment, decreasing peoples discretionary spending, quality of life etc etc?

[MOD]Can we pass on the "you're a government shill" line, thanks.[/MOD]

Idbatterim

Hold on a second, the government are talking about exiting the bailout program and RETURNING to the markets.
So back to borrowing money like arseholes again.

When are the banks we were forced to invest in going to be sold so we can recoup that 62 BILLION we pumped into them?
Plus massive interest I might add.

do you think after all that has happened, we wont have hawks eyes on us, from the markets, ECB, IMF etc. Also in future it is likely our budget will be vetted by other Eurozone members. Dont worry...

M three

Idbatterim wrote: »

do you think after all that has happened, we wont have hawks eyes on us, from the markets, ECB, IMF etc. Also in future it is likely our budget will be vetted by other Eurozone members. Dont worry...

Jumping ahead there but bear this in mind;

This is the EU that set fiscal rules for new applicant countries to adhere to before they were allowed join the EU. When it came to greece joining, these rules werent adhered to, and the eu allowed greece to join anyway.

This is the EU that told us they needed the lisbon treaty passed to make the EU more efficient.

This is the EU who forced us to pay back private banks for their speculative investments, then have taxpayers owe the money.

To me the whole operation is having countries borrowing from the "markets" so they can rake in interest.

I dont share your optimism

M three

M three wrote: »

I think you'll find that selectively referring legislation for legal opinion in this country is a means of passing the buck and stalling.
Are you seriously suggesting that it is necessary (with regard to the denial of the mobility allowance to over 66 year olds) to refer this for legal opinion, when the ombudswoman emily o'reilly has already said its illegal?

Did you not already know that? Or maybe you did and are just pushing bull**** for the government.

As for the rest of your post, yeah such a super job the government is doing turning 62 billion worth of PRIVATE debt into soverign debt.

Brendan Howlin raving on about how we're meeting targets. Would that be rising emigration, rising unemployment, decreasing peoples discretionary spending, quality of life etc etc?

[MOD]Can we pass on the "you're a government shill" line, thanks.[/MOD]

Why? Can you guarantee me with 100% certainty that no one from a political party or affiliated with a political party never uses boards to fly kites, shape public opinion or push propaganda?

Bear in mind the case where an official in the department of the Taoiseach phoned a radio show to offer their opinion, without actually telling anyone that they were a government employee.

For those of you who cant remember;
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/call-to-radio-station-by-civil-servant-improper-289446.html

that was 10 years ago, you really think civil servants like that guy aren't on boards too????

Can you?

Scofflaw

M three wrote: »

Why? Can you guarantee me with 100% certainty that no one from a political party or affiliated with a political party never uses boards to fly kites, shape public opinion or push propaganda?

Bear in mind the case where an official in the department of the Taoiseach phoned a radio show to offer their opinion, without actually telling anyone that they were a government employee.

For those of you who cant remember;
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/call-to-radio-station-by-civil-servant-improper-289446.html

that was 10 years ago, you really think civil servants like that guy aren't on boards too????

Can you?

No, I can't, and indeed nobody can. But since none of us know who they are (except them, obviously), and nobody can prove it either, flinging the accusation around is pointless annoyance creation.

And, yes, red-carded for arguing moderation on thread, too.

moderately,
Scofflaw

[Jackass]

For MThree's peace of mind, anybody feel free to search my posts on this forum, I've been nothing but consistant in my views, which take no political line and I've been equally as harsh on this Government for their performance in some areas as I have been complimentary about their performance in others. I was merely pointing out the senseless comparrison of how offloading our debt onto private investors would cripple us in the long run and we can't just keep spending and then not pay our bills. Cuts have to be made - I don't like people trying to devalue my or anyone's elses opinion by writing people down as political moles every time someone doesn't agree with them or sides with a Government or Opposition on an issue.

lmimmfn

Domestic demand and employment continue to decline owing to ongoing household balance sheet repair

What exactly does that mean? to me it means ongoing raping of households for cash is strangling the economy, is this correct?

This country is going to be some $hithole by the time these austerity measures are finished. Whats left? 3 more years( at least )?

Scofflaw

lmimmfn wrote: »

What exactly does that mean? to me it means ongoing raping of households for cash is strangling the economy, is this correct?

This country is going to be some $hithole by the time these austerity measures are finished. Whats left? 3 more years( at least )?

Er, no, it means that people are paying down their debts.

cordially,
Scofflaw

M three

[Jackass] wrote: »

For MThree's peace of mind, anybody feel free to search my posts on this forum, I've been nothing but consistant in my views, which take no political line and I've been equally as harsh on this Government for their performance in some areas as I have been complimentary about their performance in others. I was merely pointing out the senseless comparrison of how offloading our debt onto private investors would cripple us in the long run and we can't just keep spending and then not pay our bills. Cuts have to be made - I don't like people trying to devalue my or anyone's elses opinion by writing people down as political moles every time someone doesn't agree with them or sides with a Government or Opposition on an issue.

No need to worry about my piece of mind.
You have yet to answer the initial question I asked you;
Did you know that Emily O'Reilly had already said it was illegal to deny the mobility allowance to disabled people over the age of 66, when you said it was normal procedure for a government to seek legal opinion on a matter like this?

[Jackass]

I'll answer your question with a series of questions:

1/ Is Emily O'Reilly an authority on Irish law?
2/ Does she have any legal training other than an awareness of the law and her own interpretation of it?
3/ Is her opinion on the existing law legally binding?
4/ Are her comments enough reason to send legislation for legal assessment by the experts, rather than taking the word of a civil servant?

M three

[Quote=[Jackass];81439500]I'll answer your question with a series of questions:

1/ Is Emily O'Reilly an authority on Irish law?
2/ Does she have any legal training other than an awareness of the law and her own interpretation of it?
3/ Is her opinion on the existing law legally binding?
4/ Are her comments enough reason to send legislation for legal assessment by the experts, rather than taking the word of a civil servant?[/Quote]

You're avoiding the question, are you sure you're not eamon gilmore?!
That was a joke by the way.

To answer your silly questions anyone in their right mind would agree with emily o reilly in this case.

Gilmore referring this for legal opinion is just a mechanism to stall.
Let me put it more clearly to you;
Do you think its a good idea that a disabled person should be denied a meagre mobility allowance just because they're over 66?

I think gilmores just being a bolox, and should be ashamed of himself. He has no problem whatsoever handing billions over to private banks, but if you're over 66, irish and disabled be couldnt give a ****.

What kind of a man does that?

And before you say it yes huge reform needs to happen, but as a labour politican useless gilmore is the last person that is capable of doing that.

lmimmfn

Scofflaw wrote: »

Er, no, it means that people are paying down their debts.

cordially,
Scofflaw

thanks, thats all i wanted to know

M three

lmimmfn wrote: »

What exactly does that mean? to me it means ongoing raping of households for cash is strangling the economy, is this correct?

This country is going to be some $hithole by the time these austerity measures are finished. Whats left? 3 more years( at least )?

Scofflaw wrote: »

Er, no, it means that people are paying down their debts.

cordially,
Scofflaw

lmimmfn wrote: »

thanks, thats all i wanted to know

It actually means people have no cash because they're being forced to pay someone else debts, or more to the point, we're being made to pay for bondholders gambling.