25th October

rossom

2.00 Southwell

Mubtadi 15/2 NAP

I think there are two stand out horses in the field in the shape of the unexposed 3 year old Chronic Flame and my main selection in Ismail Mohammed's 4 year old and I'm going to have a good go on the RFC as I feel that they could easily be the first two home but I just feel Mubtadi could be the stronger of the pair. Firstly to current favourite Chronic Flame, he showed some good form in maidens most notably when 4th behind an easy winner in the shape of 100 rated Ed De Gas with the 2nd and 3rd now rated 84 and 69 which make his handicap mark of 57 look very manageable. Although beaten in his two handicaps to date, the switch to fibresand for Marcus Tregonning's gelding could prove the oracle with Sire Dubai Destination's progeny having a 17% strike rate at the track since 2009 and it looks very significant that Chronic Flame will only be the in form trainer's 3rd runner ever at the track. He's unexposed, looks on a good mark and is definitely open to some considerable improvement. Mubtadi, on the other hand, is a horse that looks very well handicapped on old form off a mark of 65 and I'm taking proven experience and the potential to bounce back to form over potential progression in this race.

Formerly witih David Simock, Mubtadi showed some very decent form as a 3 year when a head 2nd off a mark of 81 at Doncaster in a strong Class 2 handicap over a mile as well as a staying on 3.25L beaten 4th over 7f at Goodwood behind the subsequently very progressive pair of Tariq Too and Valencha off a mark of 82 on what was his last start for Simcock. Mubtadi made his debut for current connections in May when a rather unlucky in running 4L beaten 7th at Newbury off a mark of 81 and that effort showed that he still maintained his ability. Its been pretty much downhill in his 5 starts for the yard since then (although he did shape pretty nicely 2 starts back when lit up by a visor at Yarmouth) but as a result he has become a very well handicapped horse. I'm not one to discount a regressive profile too lightly but I definitely can see more than just a well handicapped horse as my reasoning. Firstly, trainer Ismail Mohammed has really found his feet recently after a frustrating start to his career in England and the former UAE 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winning trainer has sent out 5 winners from his last 13 runners including his last two who were both successful so he is in flying form having taking up pitch at Newmarket. On top of this, I think the switch to the fibresand could prove the oracle for Mubtadi. Although not guaranteed to act on the surface, this colt's Sire Dr. Fong has a 17.2% strike rate at the track with his progeny so that is a big pointer that he could relish this surface as he is dropped back into a 0-65 handicap for the first time in his career. Liam Jones takes the ride and is a very interesting booking being 1-1 for the stable and this represents his only action of the day and I think its a strong signal of intent. With a multitude of positives in his favour, I think Mubtadi looks primed to bounce back to form in a big way and I am pretty confident he can take this very average looking event (hopefully with Chronic Flame trailing him home in 2nd!)

UrbanSea

I did one small bet today. The Snuffler in the last at Thurles 25/1