Marathon: What time should I aim for?

The Rook

Hi all,

I've a question that the collective might be able to help me out with....

I'm looking at running a marathon in Spring 2013. It';ll be my second marathon after a 4:03 in Barcelona a couple of years ago.

Currently I'm running about 40 miles a week, with long runs of 12 and 13 miles over 1 Hour 30 mins to 1 hour 55 mins (not training for anything in particular at the moment, more setting the groundwork for the marathon in Spring, but will do the 1/2 in Waterford in December and the Dungarvan 10 Miler in January) and at the moment I'm capable of a sub 50 minute 10k (just) and did the 10 miler from the Race Series in the Phoenix Park in 1:30.

I would like to train properly for this Spring Marathon and have seen the training plans on the Runners World site here: http://www.runnersworld.co.uk/racing/rws-garmin-ready-marathon-schedule-sub-330/2764.html

My quandary is, should I go with the training plan for a sub 3:30 marathon for which the website says "To break 3:30, you should eventually be capable of a sub-1:37 half-marathon (7:20 per mile) and sub- 43:00 10K (7:00 per mile). Right now, you should be running at least 25-30 miles per week, and be able to run for 1:30 non-stop" or should I go with the program for a sub 3:45 marathon, for which the website says "To break 3:45, you should eventually be capable of a sub-1:45 half-marathon (8:00 per mile) and sub-46:00 10K (7:30 per mile). Right now, you should be running at least 25 miles per week, and be able to run for 80 minutes non-stop.

I want to be pushed in training without being unrealistic about what I'm capable of and would appreciate if anyone/everyone could suggest what to do. My heart says go with the sub 3:30, and I'm capable of what it says I should be doing now, but in my head seems like such a huge gap between 4:03 and sub 3:30!!

Any & all advice welcomed!

Thanks

The Rook

RayCun

At a guess, 3.30 is too ambitious for you, but it depends on how fast you improve. I think RW is about right when it says 3.30 = 1.37 half = sub 43 10k, that's about how it worked for me, but those are times you should be able to hit at the end of your training plan, not the beginning.

The training plan is only 16 weeks long, so you won't be starting until after the Waterford half. If you can get under 1.40 there, start training for a 3.30 marathon. Do some more races during your training to track your progress, and decide your goal time closer to the marathon itself.

rom

Personally I think 3:45 would be a more realistic goal between now and a spring marathon. As you are saying your 10 Mile time is 90 mins currently which would mean you were in much better shape for Barcelona. Having run 68 mins in the same race my A goal for DCM would be 3:20 with 3:30 as a B goal. Use http://www.mcmillanrunning.com/calculator . 75 mins 10 mile (at least) would be needed to break 3:30 I would think. If you are doing Barcelona again then you have 3 weeks taper so your training ends 2nd last week in Feb. Your current vdot based on Frank Duffy is 36.41 and you want to increase this to 44.51 for the marathon distance in 3 1/2 months. A 1 point per month increase would be close to the limit of what is achievable by most driven people unless you can train full time with no other life commitments and have a rocky style montage at the end of it

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ApMebEFzfFjMdEtfN0RWd1RvOHdXdmk3RlZhUmRGR2c&hl=en_US#gid=1
http://www.attackpoint.org/trainingpaces.jsp?dist=26.2&units=miles&time=33000

http://www.attackpoint.org/trainingpaces.jsp?dist=26.2&units=miles&time=34500 would be a more achievable time.

NOTE: This is not fact in anyway, just my totally unskilled opinion.

ThePiedPiper

It's a tough one to say for sure Rook, but I'd have to say that sub 3:30 seems optimistic at the moment. You've been training away for a while and running 40 miles a week. From this point of view, I think you should be a bit closer to the required 10k or half pace as indicated. If you were only running 15-20 miles a week, then there'd be much greater scope for improvement.

But, don't set yourself any limits or targets just yet. You mentioned that there's not really much focus to your current training. That's fine, you're building up an aerobic base. But, start structuring it a bit, developing speed work, and set yourself the intermediary goal of the half. After that, you can figure out the marathon goal.

average_runner

I would go with sub 3.45. You might end up over training for the 3.30 and end up with nothing or worst you could get bad injuries.

myflipflops

Go in with a dynamic plan.

I you want to run 3.30 then start off around that pace and see how it feels. It it does not feel like jogging pace then ease back to a pace that does feel that comfortable.

Do not limit yourself to sticking strickly to running at a certain, specific pace. Be willing to alter the plan - the marathon is a long race.

The Rook

Thanks to all for the responses, some really good stuff here so the advice is greatly appreciated.

I've decided to go for 3:45, I'll do it and do it well and assuming all goes to plan I'll secure a marathon PB!

Thanks again

The Rook