Tuesday October 16th

rossom

NAP tomorrow is 2.20 Huntingdon The Last Night 7/1. Write up to come later but the price is vanishing fast!

3ndahalfof6

HI rossom, I will be backing your pick as norm (hoping for the best),

one to look at for a saver in this race is DRUMLANG, distance and ground is sound, but the weight he is at is a weight he seems to perform, with a jockey who seems to get on well with him, it could be a nice place at the price,

might even be a reverse forecast:eek:

sometimes 1 is missed, I am not saying this is it but let me know what you think,

keep safe bud, be lucky.

sonnky

what do you think of Walden Prince's chance in that race rossom!

Colonel Sanders

rossom wrote: »

The Last Night 7/1

Emma Lavelle gave this one a serious write up in the stable tour in One Jump Ahead last year. Mark Howard had him in his 40 to follow despite being unraced

Proved very disappointing after a good 3rd of his debut to a good horse but trainer still seems to like him judging by OJA this year.

rossom

2.20 Huntingdon

The Last Night 7/1 NAP

Emma Lavelle's 5 year old has the potential to mack a mockery of his current mark of 109 if breeding and stable reports are to be believed and if he's strengthened up over the summer I can see him being very difficult to beat. Prior to making his racecourse debut, Emma Lavelle said in her stable tour that he is a "gorgeous horse that won't run until February because he's just having his wind done but one to remember" and he was so highly thought of that he made Mark Howard's 40 to follow despite being unraced (cheers Colonol Sanders). He is a full brother to the stables high class handicapping hurdler Tocca Ferro who was last seen winning two Listed Handicaps at the end of 2010, latterly off 134 so The Last Night certainly has a lot of potential on the breeding side of things. He made his racecourse debut at the end of January over today's C+D on soft ground at the end of January this year when running a race full of potential when a 12L beaten 3rd in a Novice Hurdle. After jumping pretty novicey throughout after being held up at the rear of the field, he may stylish progress round the wide outside to mount a challenge but ultimately he looked to tire in the finish with the front two drawing clear. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day on debut, especially given that the two horses in front of him were both ex flat horses who had already both had two starts over hurdles each. The winner Il De Re followed up by winning on his next start in a Novice Hurdle before contesting a Listed Handicap off a mark of 124 and he has since won his sole two starts on the flat and is rated 105 in that sphere. The 2nd Cry of Freedom won on his hurdling bow and is rated 121 in this sphere. His trainer said after this effort that "he is a very exciting horse and I can't wait for his next race.

The Last Night was then stepped up in trip and into a Class 2 novice hurdle on his 2nd start over 2m4f at Ascot in February where he was tailed off. Timeform's comments for today's race say he scoped dirty after that race so you've clearly got to ignore that effort. However, given that he was sent off the 14/1 4th choice of the punters in a race that had the exciting Keys and at the time 133 rated Sentry Duty going off 3rd favourite again says a lot about how highly he is rated by his connections. His 3rd and final start came at Kempton over 2m5f in April where he travelled into the race pretty well again but didn't find too much and was ultimately disappointing. On her website after this effort, Lavelle commented "He is a horse I just feel have not got right this year. He had a wind operation just as the season was starting and I think it probably just 'knocked' him, and although he travels well and gives you the feel of a serious horse at home he is probably still very immature, and again a good summer on his back will hopefully be the answer". A good summer on his back is exactly what he has had as he embarks upon what will hopefully be a progression that the Lavelle team is sure he can make and given how highly he seems to be rated by his yard then a mark of 109 must be well within his sphere of ability. According to someone who has links to the Lavelle yard he has blossomed during the break and he once again gets a favourable mention in Mark Howard's One Jump Ahead book. A niggling concern I have is the form of the stable as she is winnerless since May (only 15 runners). Most of her good runners will only be making the starts to their seasons about now so it may be nothing at all but she did have two well fancied runners flop at Exeter the other day so all may not be well in the yard. Its a risk I'm willing to take. If Lavelle has gotten him right after his 6 months absence from the track then I fancy a huge run from The Last Night and hopefully he lands this in good style.

With regards to the other two you lads have mentioned

I think Drumlang will find it difficult to compete off a mark of 97 in this race. Yes his bloodless victory off an 8lb lower mark last year would give him a good chance but I don't think that race was very good at all. He was pretty poor in his 4 subsequent starts after that and has been off the track for 6 months and is unproven with an absence. Ian Williams is in good form at present which is a positive but this looks a tough race where I expect a lot of horses to come out and be better than their current marks so I would just be slightly surprised if he was good enough with his sketchy jumping after an absence in a hot looking race off this mark. I'm not saying its impossible and will be the first one to put my hands up if he wins/runs well but I personally don't feel that he'll be involved at the business end of this race.

With regards to Walden Prince, I don't see him having too much leeway off his current mark of 105 although if he did perform to his best then he could play a role in the finish. He had some decent form over in Ireland when bumping into a highly progressive and easy winner off a mark of 109 last September on his last start over here in a race that looks ok form in behind but he hasn't shown much for current connections with his best effort being a decentish 3rd at Chepstow off this mark in April. Returns here from a nearly 200 day absence from the course like a lot of the field and again hasn't had a significant break in his career to date so whether he'll need the run or not is a complete unknown. 14/1 isn't a price I'd be overly enthused about taking in a race that I think could potentially throw up a lot of winners.

rossom

2.50 Huntingdon

Porters War 7/1 NB

I think Porters War could strike at the first time of asking for Jeremy Scott who looks on a good mark when weighing up his previous form. This 10 year old gelding is is very lightly raced under rules for his age with only 16 starts to date and this will be his first run in this sphere for almost two years (he did have a run in a point in June where he was apparently beaten a long way). Formerly trained by Alan King, he was a decent enough chaser and was rated 120 at his peak with his last win coming off a mark of 113 over this distance back in April 2009. He's now fallen a long way in the weights to a mark of 99 and if Jeremy Scott has revitalised him then I think he should be more than capable of scoring off his current mark. Scott has proved adept at rejuvenating horses after a break from other trainers as can be seen by Quaddick Lake winning on stable debut after a 14 month break earlier this year so that has to go down as a big plus when weighing up Porters War's chances. Huntingdon has been a happy hunting ground for the stable for this former farmer with the yard having a tremendous 6-8 record at the track (1-2 chasing, 5-6 hurdling[scary stat given he has an unexposed horse running in The Last Night's race!]) so I think its quite significant that Porters War has his first start for the yard here. If his June Point to Point has blown away his cobwebs, I think Porters War looks primed for a big showing for a stable whose last runner was successful last week.

6.50 Wolves

Chiswick Bey 8/1

If discounting his last poor run, I think this 4 year old gelding looks to have an excellent chance on his all weather and stable debut for Ollie Pears. Chiswick Bey started out his life with Richard Fahey and looked a pretty good 2 year old competing in a Group 2 on third start, winning a handicap debut off a mark of 85 and ending the year rated a career high 93. He only managed 2 starts in his 3 year old campaign but did put in an excellent 2nd in a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 90 that year in a race whose form has worked out quite nicely. This year he looked extremely regressive for Fahey as his handicap mark fell from 90 to 79 after a string of poor efforts (all over 7/8f on soft ground) which saw him leave to join Peter Salmon's yard in August of this year. The change in scenery coupled, the step back in trip and better ground worked the absolute oracle for this 4 year old as he landed a nice old punt when supported from a double figure price into joint favouritism when making all to score over 6f at Haydock in August by 0.75L. He was always holding his rivals that day and that race has seen all of the 8 horses in behind win subsequently (only the last home Baron's Spy won NTO). The 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 8th have come out and won off the same or higher marks within a few starts whilst the rest of the field have won in the interim period off 1lb-5lb lower marks. Its the first time I've ever seen this when analysing a horse and it definitely a good sign, especially as it was only 3 months ago. Raised 4lb to a mark of 83, Chiswick Bey was sent off favourite over that same C+D but he put in a bit of a shocker where he didn't get to the front but I'm willing to overlook that effort, especially considering he has moved a new stable. Ollie Pears is a trainer I've a lot of time for and I think he's picked up a recruit that is on a good mark of 83 and given that Chiswick Bey won with a change of scenery I'm hoping history can repeat itself. Ollie Pears's horses are running well enough at present and Jacob Butterfield, who has a 21% strike rate for the yard, takes off a very useful 7lb. With the plum draw in stall 1, I envisage instructions will be to attempt to make all and if getting to the front then I believe Chiswick Bey could prove difficult to pass and hopefully he'll resume winning ways off a mark I definitely think he can exploit.

Colonel Sanders

As short as 5/2

I actually backed it independently of you tipping it

rossom

Well done with Drumlang. Hands go straight up and I was well and truly wrong about him! Hope you got on at a big price but the SP of 18/1 was still lovely.

With regards to The Last Night, I don't really know what to make of that. He didn't go with much gusto at all and I wouldn't be in a hurry to back him any time soon. It could be a case that something may not be quite right in the yard and it will be interesting to see what Lavelle says about him after that. I wouldn't look into the form of that race too much but nevertheless The Last Night was very poor.

rossom

I think if Porters War doesn't clout the last two fences he wins going away at Huntingdon. Doesn't look like its going to be my day