Munster National - Limerick 14th Oct

Racecaller

The Ladbrokes Munster National takes place at Limerick on Sunday 14th October. Below are trends for past 10 runnings (http://tinyurl.com/8wfyzcv):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-3-8
7yo: 2-9-33
8yo: 5-3-31
9yo: 0-6-32
10yo: 2-1-13
11yo+: 0-0-9
The last 8 winners have been aged 6 to 8, who have a combined record of 8-15-72 compared to horses aged 9+: 2-7-54.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-4 or higher: 3-10-61
Horses carrying 10-3 or lower: 7-12-65
7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-3 or less.
Top Weight: 355F702507 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 130 or higher: 4-8-55
Horses rated 119 to 129: 5-13-59
Horses rated 118 or lower: 1-1-12
6 of last 7 winners were officially rated 119 to 132, in past 2 renewals all 7 placed finishers were rated 125+.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on one of their last two chase starts
5 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (4 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on only previous start here in a handicap chase)
8 of 10 winners had run in a graded chase (1 exception had run in listed chase and other exception had run in a grade 2 hurdle)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F+
9 of 10 winners had won 2 to 5 times over fences (exception won just once)
7 of 10 winners (7 of last 8) had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 8) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
6 of 10 winners were unplaced in a chase at that year's Punchestown Festival
4 of 10 winners had their last chase start at the Punchestown Festival

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 2U (0-1-2)
Midlands National winner (Caim Hill): 1 (1-0-1)
Breakfast With Hector On 2fm H’cap Chase winner (Droim Toll): 3 (0-1-1)
Highest Placed finisher from previous season's Troytown: 131P4U (2-2-6)
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a chase at the Punchestown Festival
3 of 10 winners ran in Pat Taaffe H'cap Chase, finishing F0F
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 406
2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 20
2 of 10 winners ran in that yer's Irish Grand National, finishing 89
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Cork National, finishing 62

Trainers
Noel Meade (2-4-11) trained the winner in 2005 & 2011 and saddled the runner-up in 4 of the other 8 runnings since 2002.
Mouse Morris (1-1-6) has won in 2001 & 2003 and also saddled the 3rd in 2010.
Adrian Maguire (1-0-2) & Michael Hourigan has both also trained the winner since 2002.
Eric McNamara (0-2-5) trained the winner back in 1999 and 2 of his 5 runners in the past 10 years made the frame.
Dessie Hughes (0-0-4) and Charlie Swan (0-0-7) have seen their combined 11 runners all finish unplaced.

Price
No strong trend on prices with 6 winners going off 8/1 or shorter and the other 4 being priced between 10/1 and 20/1.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won the race twice in the past 10 years but show a level stakes loss of 5.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-3 or less
• Officially rated 119 to 132
• Finished in the first 3 on one of last 2 chase starts
• Course winner (or having first start here)
• Won 2 to 5 times over fences
• Won a chase over 2M 4F+
• Second or third season chaser
• Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 3)
• Ran in a chase at the 2012 Punchestown Festival
• Previously run in a graded chase
• Trained by Mouse Morris, Noel Meade or Eric McNamara

Nulty

Tough race. My instinct is to go with The Bishop Looney. His chases going right handed are much better than going left handed.

R: 4F11
L: P0674

He fell in the Thyestes when in third position 2l off On His Own with ears pricked.

16/1 please

3ndahalfof6

I will be having a few on RAZ DE MAREE 12s and FOUR COMMANDERS 10s

MoscowFlyer

Cross Appeal and Caim Hill are the two I have my eye on.

Nulty

Well done 3ndahalf!