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11th October

  • 11-10-2012 5:10am
    #1
    rossom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,370 ✭✭✭


    2.50 Exeter

    Magical Island 13/2 NAP

    I've had a big e/w on this 9 year old and although there are a fair few risks involved his new trainer Sarah Kerswell gives me a lot of hope as he tries to overcome an 814 day absence from the track. Kerswell is a new trainer and has had a great start to her career with both of her horses winning on stable debut having left Sophie Leech (same as Magical Island) and she is currently 2-3 in her training career. The very significant thing to note for me is that both her winners came on their first start for the stable on the back of 14 and 20 month absences respectively so the fact Magical Island has been off the track for so long isn't a negative to me - I actually see it as a big positive given her trainers evidently excellent ability to ready her horses and this is the main factor as to why I've had a decent size bet on this one. In relation to the horse, he is clearly no superstar at all being 0-12 in his career to date and racing here off a mark of 77 but he won't have to be to win a contest of this nature. He actually put up a couple of decent efforts in blinkers in his last 3 starts with his 3rd last start back in April 2010 when a 9L beaten 3rd off a mark of 78 where the form has worked out and his last start in July of that year when a 6L beaten 2nd (16L clear of the 3rd) off a mark of 79 looks another very good piece of form as the winner won his next two starts over hurdles including by 49L off an 18lb higher mark whilst the 3rd won on her next start off a 6lb higher mark (out of handicap) and the 4th won 3 times prior to the end of that year including off an 18lb higher mark so on the basis of that run I can see how his current mark is definitely workable. He gets in here off a bottom weight of 10 stone with Brendan Powell, who is 1-1 for Kerswell after riding one of her winners, taking a valuable 3lb off his back. This race clearly won't take a lot of winning and if Kerswell works her magic like she has with her other two horses than I think this could improve her short training career to 3-4

    3.00 Worcester

    Father Jack FC 10/1 NB

    Bit of guesswork involved here but if I'm seeing this right then I could well be on to something very interesting. The 5 year old Father Jack makes his racecourse debut for trainer (and owner) Tom Symonds in this bumper and Barry Geraghty is booked for what is his solitary ride of the day. Prior to taking out his licence in 2011, Symonds was the assistant trainer to Nicky Henderson and he's made a pretty decent start to his career. Given that Geraghty is Nicky Henderson's stable jockey, its clear that he and Symonds will have built up a working relationship and I think its very interesting that this will be Geraghty's first ride for the stable, especially given its owned by the trainer as well. In relation to the horse himself, Father Jack is the first foal of a mare who was pretty damn awful in her career but he did fetch 10,000 euros and he's been gelded before seeing a racecourse. After looking into the purchasing a little further, I noticed the initial buyer was none other than a B Gerraghty (I'm guessing RP spelt his surname wrong) which does nothing but increase my intrigue in the jockey's booking even more so. Geraghty is over schooling for Henderson at the moment and his base in Lambourn is about a 3 hour round trip from Worcester so again I'm hoping this is another sign that a big run is expected on debut. Symonds is in good form at present with a chasing winner the other day and a bumper winner yesterday and although he is only 1-19 with debutant bumper horses it does show that he can ready a winner first time out. When taking all the above factors into account, I think it makes very interesting reading and if its not all completely coincidence then I'm inferring that Father Jack could be a pretty useful type and should have a live chance of opening his account at the first time of asking. If it is a case of 1+1 = 2 then hopefully I've stumbled upon a nice little bet here (12s on Betfair at time of writing) and I'd suggest taking the price first thing as the Geraghty factor will surely be popular.

    Doubling these up in what could be a very nice 15 minutes.


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