The Single Path To Riches

Fundamental Bettor

I will be running a betting log over the course of the season that will focus on bets that meet very specific criteria.

All bets will be on football and will be placed on a team to win, over 2.5 goals, a combination of the two, both teams to score and occasionally Asian handicaps.

This log will be using virtual money with a starting bank of £100 and using odds from a number of bookmakers to get the maximum value.

The majority of the bets will have odds in the region of between 4/9 and 4/5.

Each of the bets will have an expectation of a level stakes profit percentage in excess of 20% and a strike rate in excess of 80%.



To illustrate the task and the bankroll challenges this betting log entails I will give an example of two betting strategies:



(1) The level stakes approach

100 bets are placed, each at odds of 1/2 with a 74% strike rate. That will result in an 11% ROI assuming you wager the same amount on each bet. Most professional sports bettors would have a long term level stakes profit in the region of 2% to 7%.



(2) The variable bank betting approach

This is where a percentage of the current bankroll is staked on each bet. It is the most volatile bankroll strategy however it can provide greater profit than the level stakes betting approach. Using the above example of 100 bets, each at odds of 1/2 and a winning percentage of 74% the variable bank betting strategy is best illustrated below:

Wager 50% on each bet would result in losing 77% of the bankroll.
Wager 5% on each bet would result in the bankroll increasing by 63%.
I will be using a variable bank betting strategy with a 50% stake so I will be posing very selective wagers.



I will provide a general preview for each bet and expect to post between 2 and 4 bets per month that meet the required criteria set out above.

Fundamental Bettor

The two sides last faced each other on Tyneside on January 4 when Sir Alex Ferguson's men left on the wrong end of a 3-0 scoreline having been comprehensively beaten. They have gone some of the way towards making amends since with a 2-1 Capital One Cup victory over Pardew's team at Old Trafford last month, but they will head to the north-east determined to return with three points. Both sides have defensive injury problems, and that - coupled with the riches the two managers have at their disposal in attack suggests a high scoring match. Newcastle’s Demba Ba already has six goals to his name this season, while United's flying Dutchman Robin van Persie has seven. Newcastle will be without first-choice goalkeeper Tim Krul and central defenders Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor. Man Utd too will have key absentees at the back with Nemanja Vidic, Chris Smalling and Phil Jones - who scored an own goal in last season's game - still out.

Newcastle’s goalkeeper, Steve Harper has the daunting task of keeping out the most lethal forward pairing in the land, Rooney and Van Persie, who netted 82 goals between them for club and country last term.

Man Utd have averaged 3.83 match goals per game in this season’s premier league season with half of their matches coming in at 5 goal thrillers. Newcastle have their own lethal strike force of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse supported by Ben Arfa which will cause the Manchester defence a lot of problems.

Newcastle manager Alan Pardew has some advice for sports bettors: " Both me and Alex will be sweating defensively. Our two centre-halves tomorrow have played almost every game - (James) Perch and (Mike) Williamson - and their two centre-halves could well be (Michael) Carrick and (Rio) Ferdinand, so it's not ideal. "You want to have fresh players for games like this, but they are not and that favours the strikers for Sunday."

Lineups:

Newcastle: Harper; Santon, Williamson, Perch, Ferguson; Ben Arfa, Cabaye, Tiote, Gutierrez (c); Ba, Cisse

Manchester United: De Gea; Rafael, Ferdinand, Evans, Evra (c); Carrick, Cleverley; Welbeck, Rooney, Kagawa; Van Persie.



Selection: both teams to score
Bookmaker: 888Sport
Odds: 4/6
Stake: £50

Fundamental Bettor

Newcastle 0-3 Manchester Utd

Fundamental Bettor

The first El Clásico of the Spanish La Liga season sees Real Madrid travel to the Camp Nou 8 points behind league leaders Barcelona after a shaky start to the current season. Real Madrid have lost two of their three away matches this season going down to Sevilla and Getafe. Real played Getafe 3 days after their last trip to the Camp Nou in the Super Cup which they lost a tough match 3-2 and were caught directly after the international break against Sevilla. El Clásico is a unique match from a betting aspect as the stats and form of both teams in the domestic league go out the window due to the gap in class both teams have over the other Spanish teams. While Mourinho has now changed his tactics from playing defensively against the Catalans to an approach of going to the Camp Nou with his most attacking teams this particular El Clásico has the added significance of having to make up 8 points at this early stage of the season.

Having completely outclassed Barcelona to win the Spanish Super Cup, Real Madrid have reason for optimism before the trip to Camp Nou, with current form also giving them a significant boost.

This match will have a huge bearing on who wins the title this season and Real are coming to the Camp Nou at an opportune moment as Barcelona are having defensive problems with Piques fitness in doubt due to a foot injury and he has not played for two weeks. Carlos Puyol (elbow) and Thiago Alcantara (knee) are ruled out.

Sami Khedira and Angel Di Maria are set to return to the starting line-up for Real Madrid, who have no injury concerns. The biggest selection dilemma for Jose Mourinho is likely to be over the playmaker role, with Mesut Ozil, Luka Modric, Kaka and Michael Essien all vying for a starting berth. Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 12 goals across all competitions this season and is finding form at the right time with two hattricks in his last two matches.

The last eight games between these teams have all had at least three goals, with both teams scoring and this match should be no different. Should Barca win it will represent their best ever start to a Liga campaign. The two main men for each team will be relied upon to create and score for their teams; Lionel Messi is just one goal away from becoming the second highest scorer ever in El Clásico, while a hat-trick will tie him in first place with Alfredo di Stefano. Cristiano Ronaldo meanwhile is out to do what no one else ever has, and score in six consecutive Clásico's.

These matches are often billed as about more than just football and this Sunday that will be the case more than ever. The whole Nou Camp – around 96,000 fans in total – are expected to hold up a card which should display the Catalan nation flag, as the region steps up its fight for independence from the rest of Spain, represented, of course, by the Capital’s largest club: Real.

Lineups:

Barcelona: Valdés, Dani Alves, Fàbregas, Xavi, Iniesta, Messi, Mascherano, Sergio, Pedro, Jordi Alba & Adriano

Real Madrid: Casillas, Pepe, Ramos, Khedira, Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema,Özil, Marcelo, Alonso, Arbeloa, Di María

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Stan James
Odds: 8/15
Stake: £25

Fundamental Bettor

Barcelona 2-2 Real Madrid

Fundamental Bettor

Colombia host Paraguay in the World Cup Qualifiers with a great record sitting second in the South American world cup qualifying campaign (Played 7, Won 4, Drew 1, Lost 2, Scored 12, Conceded 6) compared to Paraguay who have lost 5 from 7 games conceding 14 goals in the process.

Paraguay is without their top three strikers (Cardozo, Barrios and Santa Cruz) along with Dario Veron, Antolin Alcaraz and Mencia. Colombia's Ramadel Falcao who is one of the best strikers in the world, James Rodriguez and Teo Gutierrez who has scored 3 goals in the last two matches are expected to cause a lot of trouble to Colombia’s defence.

This is the new golden generation of Colombian football who will be playing one of the worst Paraguayan sides in the last decade and Colombia will be very confident coming off the back of beating Uruguay (4-0) and Chile (1-3).

Lineups:

Paraguay: Diego Barreto; Iván Piris, Paulo Da Silva, Pablo Aguilar, Miguel Samudio; Fidencio Oviedo, Víctor Cáceres, Cristian Riveros; José Ariel Nuñez, Nelson Haedo, Marcelo Estigarribia

Colombia (probable): David Ospina; Pablo Armero, Carlos Valdes, Mario Yepes, Camilo Zuñiga; Edwin Valencia, James Rodriguez, Aldo Leao Ramirez, Macnelly Torres; Teo Gutierrez, Radamel Falcao

Selection: Colombia
Bookmaker: Interwetten
Odds: 11/20
Stake: £31

Fundamental Bettor

Colombia 2-0 Paraguay

Fundamental Bettor

Spanish Segunda Division - Real Madrid (B) Castilla v Las Palmas

Real Madrid’s second string host Las Palmas this evening and their respective goals per games ratios are very high at 4.38 for Real Madrid B and 3.13 for Las Palmas.

Real Madrid B have had at least 3 goals in 7 of their 8 Segunda Division matches so far this season, no clean sheets, and with Jesé Rodríguez they have the joint highest scorer in the league with 6 goals.

In their 4 home games Real Madrid B have scored 9 and conceded 9 and are up against Las Palmas who have also conceded 9 goals in the 4 away matches and 17 in total for the second worst defence in the league.

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 8/15
Stake: £40

turbobaby

Keep up the good work!

Fundamental Bettor

Real Madrid (B) Castilla 3-2 Las Palmas

Fundamental Bettor

English Championship: Sheffield Wednesday v Leeds

Sheffield Wednesday (22nd) host Leeds (7th) in what should be a toughly fought Yorkshire derby. The bookmakers have priced up Sheffield Wednesday as an 11/8 favourite even though they have failed to gain a win in their last 8 matches in all competitions and languish in the relegation zone.

Both teams have a high average goals per game with Sheffield Wednesday coming in at 3.5 and Leeds at 3.4.

Sheffield Wednesday have the second worst defence in the Championship having conceded 21 goals and will have to keep out a rampant Leeds attack who hold the joint 3rd best offensive record in the league with 18 goals and the second highest scorer in the Championship in Luciano Becchio with 8 goals (3 penalties and 5 time first goal scorer – Becchio best price to score the first goal 6/1 with Stan James).

Leeds are a very open attacking away team with both 9 goals scored and conceded in their opening 5 away Championship fixtures and should breach the Wednesday defence on at least two occasions which can be had at a generous price of 29/20 with Coral.

Sheffield Wednesday will miss Johnson and Lines while Leeds will be without McCormack and Tonge and Austin are doubtful.

Both teams have had 80% of their matches go over 2.5 goals and this is the market that holds the most appeal for me in terms of this log. All 5 of Leeds away league games have gone over 2.5 goals while 4 from 5 of Wednesdays home matches have gone over 2.5.

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Coral
Odds: 8/11
Stake: £50

Fundamental Bettor

Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Leeds

Fundamental Bettor

Burnley host Blackpool in the televised Championship match in what will be an entertaining local derby at Turf Moor.

Burnley have the highest goals per game average in the Championship at 4.3 and Blackpool are in 7th with 3.3.

Blackpool have the joint second best offensive record in the Championship and are facing Burnley who hold the top offensive record with 21 goals. Both teams concede regularly with only 3 combined clean sheets in the Championship.

Charlie Austin (Burnley) is the top scorer in the Championship with 11 goals and will be looking to get Burnley back to winning ways.


Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Stan James
Odds: 4/6
Stake: £25

Fundamental Bettor

Burnley 1-0 Blackpool

Fundamental Bettor

Middlesbrough host Bolton Wanderers in which Jimmy Phillips will take charge of Bolton for the final time in what should be an entertaining encounter. Middlesbrough have averaged 3 match goals (3.16 at home) so far this season while Bolton are on 3.17 (3.16 away from home). They have a combined 70 of matches going over 2.5 goals and their respective styles of play are perfectly matched with Middlesbrough attacking at home and Bolton quick on the counter attack. Bolton will be relying on Chris Eagles to get them on the score sheet however Middlesbrough are in a fortunate position on having 12 of their players contribute to their 19 league goals.

Middlesbrough
Defense – Seb Hines; André Amougou; George Friend; Stuart Parnaby
Keeper – Jason Steele
Midfield – Joshua McEachran; Adam Reach; Faris Haroun; Grant Leadbitter;
Forwards – Ishmael Miller; Marvin Emnes;

Bolton
Keeper – Adam Bogdan
Defense – Tyrone Mears; Samuel Ricketts; Tim Ream; Stephen Warnock;
Midfield – Chris Eagles; Mark Davies; Chung-Yong Lee; Jay Spearing; Martin Petrov;
Forwards – Kevin Davies;

Selection: over 2.5 goals
Bookmaker: Paddy Power
Odds: 4/6
Stake: £13

Fundamental Bettor

Middlesbrough 2-1 Bolton

Fundamental Bettor

Swansea travel to the Etihad Stadium to take on the reigning champions. Man City had a poor loss against Ajax midweek and will be looking to bounce back with a significant win against Swansea who have conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 league matches and will be under constant pressure from City who will be recalling Carlos Tevez to their starting line-up after he played 20 minutes against Ajax.

Man City score the majority of their goals in the second half and will be able to take advantage of a fatigued Swansea who are used to playing a possession game but will be on the back foot against City and will be out of their element.


Selection: Man City to score 2 or more second half goals
Bookmaker: Paddy Power
Odds: 11/10
Stake: £17