15-20 years of very slow growth in Ireland

Sappa

The IMF came out today stating that the global economic crisis will take at least 10 years to rectify.
Now since this is not really a global crisis,Asia has escaped it as has many other nations,Ireland which has had it's 15 yrs of growth is potentially looking at 20 years of zero growth as there is nothing being done here to change the future to help us out of this mess.
Is Ireland just going to be looking at the rest and hoping for it's next day in the sun.

Rhys Essien

The Kondratieff Wave explains it all.

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Kondratieff_Wave.svg&page=1

Prosperity>>Recession>>Depression>>Improvement

jonsnow

Japan lost roughly 20 years from 1991 after their 80s boom came to a shuddering crash to 2010 and arguably are still in a long term funk.What makes the Irish think that we can perform better than the japanese especially given that our crash was the most severe for a modern country in peacetime.People cant get there heads around a really long run recession but I think that this is the new reality for Ireland unless we monumentally reform the way we run the country which looks less likely by the day.The irish insider elites will make sure that they have a comfortable existence at the expense of everybody else and then its either accept a pretty limited existence in Ireland(unless you are an insider) or emigrate.

Lantus

why do people believe that in a monetary system every country in the world can simultaneously be in a state of growth and being profitable? If someone is gaining then someone is typically losing out.

NIMAN

Nearly every prediction so far since 2007 has been wrong.

Hopefully this prediction will be wrong too, in our favour.
I take most things like this I read with a pinch of salt. Ireland's growth will depend on whether people are buying our stuff. So if the rest of the world starts to boom, then we should do ok too.

maccored

NIMAN wrote: »

Ireland's growth will depend on whether people are buying our stuff. So if the rest of the world starts to boom, then we should do ok too.

I think you are forgetting the huge, massive debts we have to pay off.

NIMAN

True, but we are not the only country in the world with massive debts to clear. Thinking of the UK and America for starters.

I think the world will have very slow growth for many years, and no-one will escape.

sock puppet

Sappa wrote: »

Now since this is not really a global crisis,Asia has escaped it as has many other nations,

How are India, Japan and South Korea doing?

Sand

UK and the America mostly have debts issued in their own currency, which is controlled by their own central banks. We have debt issued in Euros, which is essentially a foreign currency, controlled by a foreign central bank. There's a critical difference there. The Fed and the BOE are obsessed with with US and UK economies respectively - the ECB couldn't care less about Ireland. Comparing our position to that of the UK and US with the unspoken idea that were not unusually in trouble is at best misguided.

We have a uniquely intense requirement to grow and grow and grow in real terms to keep pace with the debt that has been loaded onto our shoulders. Livy said that It is pleasant, when the sea is high and the winds are dashing the waves about, to watch from the shores the struggles of another.

The problem is, we are not on the shore. We are out there - drowning under actual and projected growth rates that are constantly revised down.

Sappa

sock puppet wrote: »

Sappa wrote: »

Now since this is not really a global crisis,Asia has escaped it as has many other nations,

How are India, Japan and South Korea doing?

The company I work for deal almost exclusively with Asia,we had a brief slow down in business from Sept 2008 until Fenruary 2009 after this lull our work just tripled from emerging economies in South East Asia,I get to travel there a couple of times a week and from speaking to the expats there or our contacts on the ground business is booming.
India still has decent growth,Japan has had major devastation curbing there growth.

sock puppet

Sappa wrote: »

The company I work for deal almost exclusively with Asia,we had a brief slow down in business from Sept 2008 until Fenruary 2009 after this lull our work just tripled from emerging economies in South East Asia,I get to travel there a couple of times a week and from speaking to the expats there or our contacts on the ground business is booming.
India still has decent growth,Japan has had major devastation curbing there growth.

True you're right about Japan. On India I'd disagree. Growth is at its slowest in years, they've a weak currency and high inflation, and their export sector is struggling.

andrew

Lantus wrote: »

why do people believe that in a monetary system every country in the world can simultaneously be in a state of growth and being profitable? If someone is gaining then someone is typically losing out.

Economic growth/development is not a zero sum game:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_fallacy

MadsL

andrew wrote: »

Economic growth/development is not a zero sum game:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_fallacy

There are some that would argue that growth is a bad thing. That nations should be very wary of excessive growth rates and that a steady economy is preferable to a roaring one.

The very clear bad news about growth has been the Irish property market. A lot of people would have been far better off if the growth in house prices had been tracking inflation and not some notional 'boom'.

Voltex

MadsL wrote: »

There are some that would argue that growth is a bad thing. That nations should be very wary of excessive growth rates and that a steady economy is preferable to a roaring one.
.

I think they are called Communists and history has tagged that one as a FAIL

noxqs

Voltex wrote: »

I think they are called Communists and history has tagged that one as a FAIL

I think you misunderstand him. Growth is preferable at a rate that is sustainable, having 6-7-8%+ growth rate is not good as it only brings on inflation, wage demands and ultimately destroy competitiveness and thereby exports etc.

andrew

MadsL wrote: »

There are some that would argue that growth is a bad thing. That nations should be very wary of excessive growth rates and that a steady economy is preferable to a roaring one.

Absolutely; too much growth is bad, as is too little growth

The very clear bad news about growth has been the Irish property market. A lot of people would have been far better off if the growth in house prices had been tracking inflation and not some notional 'boom'.

Yep, that's true too. The property bubble caused housing bubble to rise a lot higher than the 'fundamentals' would suggest was their 'true' value.

thebman

noxqs wrote: »

I think you misunderstand him. Growth is preferable at a rate that is sustainable, having 6-7-8%+ growth rate is not good as it only brings on inflation, wage demands and ultimately destroy competitiveness and thereby exports etc.

Exactly, however there seems to be a period like Ireland mid-90's where high growth is possible without destroying competitiveness.

China is in that kind of growth period but it is also in a property bubble of its own. The government having direct control over everything and needing to keep the growth coming to maintain power over the people so they will put up with below average human rights and living standards/pay is going to have an unknown effect since you also can't trust the government figures on anything really especially since the country is so large, it is hard to get a feel for if the figures are accurate.

Time will tell but I'm guessing in 10 years or so China will be in trouble especially with their one child policy.

poeticseraphim

It is going to be a lot longer than 15 yrs for us. And no country has ever managed to pay off this level of debt without having its own currency.

To be honest we are never going to be able to deal with this level of debt.
As our economy underperforms estimates will grow longer and longer.

Sappa

I think your right,I just do not see this country recovering and being in my early 30s I think I will be making a hasty exit in the next 3 years unless I can see the light at the end of this austerity/poor economy.

poeticseraphim

Sappa wrote: »

I think your right,I just do not see this country recovering and being in my early 30s I think I will be making a hasty exit in the next 3 years unless I can see the light at the end of this austerity/poor economy.

My thoughts exactly i think will do the same.

Icepick

Lantus wrote: »

If someone is gaining then someone is typically losing out.

socialist nonsense

jank

Lantus wrote: »

why do people believe that in a monetary system every country in the world can simultaneously be in a state of growth and being profitable? If someone is gaining then someone is typically losing out.

Thats not true, two people can benefit from the exchange of goods and services from each other. The idea thats its a zero sum game is a fantasy.

Godge

poeticseraphim wrote: »

It is going to be a lot longer than 15 yrs for us. And no country has ever managed to pay off this level of debt without having its own currency.

To be honest we are never going to be able to deal with this level of debt.
As our economy underperforms estimates will grow longer and longer.

No country has ever paid off its debts. Countries issue new bonds to cover old bonds and expect that growth and inflation will enable their debt/GDP ratios to come down. The debt is never really paid back.