Saturday 29th September

rossom

2.40 Market Rasen

Rebel Du Maquis 8/1 NB

Clearly not the only one who likes this as he has been backed in from an opening show of 12/1 with PP but I think the 8/1 looks more than fair about Paul Nicholls 7 year old. He comes here on the back of 14 month break which is a slight concern but given he has won on the back of a 6 month break (by 20L in what has transpired to be an average Novices Chase) and a 5 month break (on debut for Nicholls) coupled with his trainer's ability to ready a horse make me not really concerned that he won't have this talented gelding fully wound up in what looks a competitive Listed Handicap. He's the class act in the field and as such has the burden of top weight off a mark of 146 but he really looked an exciting and progressive chaser since the backend of 2010. After signing off 2010 with 2 Novice Chase victories and a good 3rd behind the talented Reve De Sivola and Wishful Thinking, he started off his campaign last year after a 3 month break when running a decent race in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown before putting in an under par performance when last of 4 at Newton Abbott on soft enough ground in a Novices Chase. However, he soon got his career back on track in very impressive fashion with an impressive victory in a Novice's Chase at Exeter in April before clearly putting in a career best performance when winning very takingly by 11L off a mark of 142. That race has a fair bit of substance with Swing Bill winning a competitive Class 3 on his next start off a 1lb lower mark (6 month break and step up in trip would have helped a lot) but all in all it was a really likeable effort over Stratford's 21.5f. Further to this, he was top weight as well that day which proves he is more than capable of shouldering heavy weight. He was last seen when finishing a respectable midfield in the Galway Plate last July and on the basis of his progressive profile this now 7 year old looks to have been kept in after that for what could potentially be a very big season. The talented Harry Derham takes the ride tomorrow and takes off an extremely valuable 7lb which drops his racing weight to 11-5 and given that he is only 4lb above his impressive victory two starts ago he definitely looks pretty well handicapped. Rebel Du Maquis represents both the jockey and trainer's only engagements of the day and Nicholls has started the season well with his last 2 runners winning. I think its also rather interesting that this will be Nicholls first runner at this meeting since 2010 when he saddled Five Dream to finish a narrowly 1.25L beaten 2nd in the corresponding race and you've got to take that as a positive. If fully wound up on the back of his 430 day absence, I think Rebel Du Maquis should run a massive race which hopefully results in him landing this decent prize.

3.15 Haydock

Sholaan 7/2 NAP

Quite a progressive 3 year old who I think should take a heck of a lot of beating here today. After what has transpired this year, its hard to believe this gelding was campaigned over 7f and 1 mile on his first 5 career starts as he seems to have a bundle of pace. His 3 best efforts have come over 6f and I think he has more than enough speed now dropping back to the minimum trip and soft underfoot conditions seem to be the absolute key when judging his action. He burst onto the scene in June with an absolute rout of what looked an extremely competitive Class 2 race at York by 6L under Liam Jones on what was his first start on both soft ground and at sprinting trips with first time blinkers also proving the oracle and he followed that up with a fine 1.5L beaten 3rd off a 12lb higher mark of 99 on good ground that wouldn't have been ideal. His last start came last Saturday when running an absolute belter to finish 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup off this same mark of 101. That day under Kelly Harrison, he showed a tremendous dash of speed when kicking about 3L clear of the field with a couple of furlongs to go and he lost absolutely nothing in defeat as he was reeled in by 3 rivals in the final furlong to finish a 4.5L beaten 4th (Captain Ramius was 2.5L clear of 2nd) in the ultra competitive 6f dash. A 3 year old in the shape of Marino Commando winning this last year and Willie Haggas in good form positives, I see the drop back to 5f as and racing off the same mark in what looks a much easier race with Liam Jones reunited further pluses and I think he will take an awful lot of pegging back.

‎5.25 Newmarket

Big Johnny D 10/1

If purely looking at the bare facts from Big Johnny D's last race then he looks extremely overpriced in relation to current favourite Marshgate Lane. In the 10f Maiden at on the July Course off level weights, John Dunlop's 3 year old finished 1.88L behind Marshgate Lane on soft ground and given he now gets a 12lb swing in the weights with that rival now going handicapping and looks the clear value call. However, there is a fair bit more to it than that. Big Johnny D travelled beautifully into the race and was definitely taken care of by Ted Durcan in what looked an educational ride as he finished a cosy 3rd behind the two Godolphin rivals. It looked as if this colt had a fair bit left in the tank and he pulled back about 3/4s of a length in the final 50 or so yards under hands and heels riding. Furthermore, in my eyes it definitely looked as if he would appreciate the step up in trip which he gets upped to 1m4f for this contest on handicap debut off a mark of 82. If these two equally unexposed rivals are equally as effective on tomorrow's better ground, the price disparity between the pair looks very big and I'd much rather side with John Dunlop's representative. Marshgate Lane had boosted the form of that race when running an excellent handicap debut off a mark of 88 when very narrowly beaten at Goodwood in a competitive handicap which, if looking at the race from a handicap mark perspective, looks very good for Big Johnny D's CV.

That was son of Alhaarth's only start as a 3 year old to date and although its hard to tell from the small replay screens how much he's grown into himself from his juvenile days the fact he has 'Big' in his name would lead me to believe he was probably a sizeable colt with a fair bit of scope. Regardless of that fact, he showed some extremely nice form on his debut before what was a bit of an under par second effort both over 7f. Again at the July Course last August, Big Johnny D ran a very pleasing debut when finishing a 2.5L beaten 3rd on good ground in a race that has turned out to be miles above average for a maiden. He travelled into the race very sweetly and after being switched left handed late on he was beaten by two horses that have turned out to be excellent as he finished 1L clear of the others. The winner Kinglet has subsequently won a Group 3 over in Meydan and is a horse rated in the 100s and the 2nd Most Improved has proved very classy and has this season won the Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes. Furthermore, in behind him that day were also the talented Juvenal (6th) Wrotham Heath (7th) and Quixote (9th) who are now rated 84, 95 and 83 respectively and it really was a superb debut effort. A month later he was a touch disappointing at Ascot when sent of a 9/4 shot as he was beaten convincingly. I don't really know why he underperformed that day (race does look decent but not unbelievable) but given that he has come out as a 3 year old and run so well on his last start on the back of a 10 month absence allows me to discount this run pretty easily. Based on his 2 year old and 3 year old debuts, his mark of 82 looks very lenient and he's both unexposed with only 3 starts to date and looks sure to be suited by the step up to 1m4f. Ted Durcan remains on board and has done for all 3 starts and John Dunlop, who brings a close to his tremendous training career at the end of the season, has finally gotten over his early season slump and is operating at a 16% strike rate this month. If all goes to plan from a good draw in stall 4, Big Johnny D could prove too well handicapped against his rivals and make 10/1 look very big at about 5.30 tomorrow.

TheMilkyPirate

Rebel Du Maquis now 11/2