Max Hastings: The Cruel reality is that we've lost in Afghanistan

Border-Rat

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2205279/The-cruel-reality-weve-lost-Afghanistan-So-sacrificing-young-men.html

Not that we didn't know this anyway. But I greatly respect Hastings, an unbiased historian (One of the most essential qualities for that profession), so his analysis should be authoritative. They entered under false pretenses, much like their old leftist Allies in the USSR, and got beaten black and blue for doing so. I respect the resolve of the Afghan resistance, the second time in 30 years they've done it. And now in the coming years, the Taliban-ran Afghanistan will be pushed right into the welcoming arms of Russia and China, probably even the SCO. Well done, England and America. In fact, that influence will stretch right to the borders of Turkey - the Anglo-Americans gave Iraq to Iran, another SCO associate.

Catastrophic fail.

DipStick McSwindler

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bluecode

Don't sound so pleased about it Border-Rat. It's a tragedy for the Afghan people if they return to their medieval ways. But sometimes there's no helping them. They distrust foreigners and have always done so.

As for Russia and China moving in. I imagine Russia has had it's fingers burned on that one. The Chinese will note the lesson and leave the place well alone. In fact a Taliban run Afghanistan suits everyone. They are barbarians and send the country back into the dark ages thus presenting no threat to anyone.

Snickers Man

WTF is SCO in this context?

DipStick McSwindler

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RMD

From what I've gathered from various books and documentaries this seems to be the general consensus. The ANA are decent but poorly organized and lack the required discipline to ever really tackle the Taliban, the ANP is rife with corruption and little discipline, they'll do next to nothing in terms of combating the Taliban. The problem is once the coalition forces have left the Taliban will still be there, they'll always be there. They'll be able to instil fear even easier than they can now, which they're doing with relative ease.

Another major problem is outside the major cities there is no sense of Afghan identity, most citizens are more aligned to their tribal heritage than national heritage. A Pashtun has little regard for being an "Afghan" but places huge importance on being a Pashtun. When they feel little for their national identity, it is extremely hard to convince them to help improve "Afghanistan".

On a different note though, there's over 40 countries involved in ISAF Border-Rat including members of our own Army, taking a dig at only 2 is somewhat petty.

Cork boy 55

Depends what he means by won and lost?

For a good account of the Taliban rise to power in 1990's read
the book Taliban By Ahmed Rashid

The Taliban in the 1990's emerged as a force opposed to complete chaos criminality and feuding amongst warlords.
They never took control of the whole country only about 80-90% of it
and from late 1996-2001 they held Kabul and they only reached their max control line in 1998.
They only achieved this due to the division of their opponents and
due to massive support from Pakistan and others. The madressa's of Pakistan provided most of the Talibians fighters. The ISI provided the weapon's, logistics and even advisers/specialist embedded in every Taliban Unit.
In addition back then the Taliban where far more united, one army.
The Taliban will face a number of difficulties post NATO combat troop withdrawal

It is divided into dozens of factions no unified military command

It only main power base is support from Pashtun tribes in the southern rural areas.

The main plank of the resistance is the presence of foreign troops
The whole conflict 2006-2012 is really quite odd when you think about
Many Taliban grunts are "largely" fighting to get NATO out and NATO fighting to keep Taliban down. The whole thing was quite avoidable and ridiculous It should have been solved by negotiation ages ago.
I suppose you could say that about most conflicts.
anyway once NATO ground troops are gone so is the whole reason of the resistance what else do they have sharia law.

As NATO draws down the entire region will fill the the gap to some extent.
No one wants the Taliban coming back. The Iranians hate them and nearly went to war with them in 1998. The Indians will provide support. The Chinese want stability for mining and also don't want a training area for their Uighers. The Russians don't want a training area for their muslims.
All the Central Asian republics much stronger and stable than they where in the 1990's are going to be there backing the Government.
Also their is no way Pakistan can provide the massive overt support it did in the 1990's Although no doubt the ISI will still get involved with shenanigans

If we assume that NATO/CIA/ANA air cover is still overhead post ground combat troop withdrawls
How can the Taliban mass the fighters, logistics, weapons and vehicles needed to take large towns, cities and open territory. Even if they have the manpower and money. The only way is if they have mass popular support in the area and they can infiltrate do they?

---
The most likely scenario in my opinion.
Is we will see a surge post NATO troop withdrawal
lasting one fighting season In which the Taliban seize most of the remote rural areas of the south where they have support and then negotiate from that position of strength It will probably end up like Pakistan where certain regions have local autonomy (the tribal regions)
I don't think they have the means or the support to take the major cities
of the south(Kandahar and Jalalabad).

Another more unlikey scenario that is not mentioned in the western MSM media at all is that once NATO ground troops are gone
The afghan government now with a big army and with air cover can
forget about hearts and minds and start fighting very dirty
and terrorize the southern groups still loyal to the Taliban into submission

For example the old Uzbek Warlord Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum
said he could destroy the taliban in six months.
example of his handy work at link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dasht-i-Leili_massacre
he said

Then you would see what will happen in just six months," he said through an interpreter in a rare interview from his stronghold in northern Afghanistan. "If President Karzai gives me the power, I can guarantee him and assure the international community and the people of Afghanistan that we can play a significant role in defeating and breaking the back of the Taliban."

---

Dostum says NATO and the U.S. are making a mistake by building the Afghan national army along the lines of a western military force because ANA troops are no match for seasoned Taliban fighters. The answer, he maintains, are the hardened combat veterans from Afghanistan's past wars.
"The Taliban are recruiting people who know war and suffering and have nothing to lose," he explained. "Of course they will be tougher than the ANA recruits."

http://www2.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=1acb5330-dfe8-4f0e-8a1b-4f581478244f&k=44800&p=1
also

“If you support me, I will destroy the Taliban and al Qaeda,” Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum told The Washington Times in an interview at his northern stronghold. “I don’t want to be a minister, not even the defense minister. I need to be with my soldiers. Give me the task and I will do it.”

---

Gen. Dostum insists he is ready to raise a militia and sweep across the north again, without the support of Afghan government forces which he deems “too weak” to do the job.
“All the way to Waziristan if I must,” he said, referring to the tribal refuge of the Taliban and al Qaeda across the Pakistan border.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/sep/22/afghan-warlords-will-fight-if-us-gives-aid/?feat=home_headlines&


Map of Ethnolinguistics groups of Afghanistan

John Mongo

They should have left it as it was when they first invaded, a purely SOF war. They should've just continued hitting AQ and Taliban targets, since they pretty much had the Taliban on the run in 2001. When they went in, it was purely to kill the bad guys... Then conventional leadership decided they wanted to get theirs and it turned into "nation building" with a huge military footprint and troop commitment.

A'Stan was truly "lost" once Iraq became the "big war" for the US Government and military.

Funny how 11 years later, they're looking at going back to the mindset of 2001, once the withdrawal happens.

John Mongo

Also, I wonder how A'Stan would look now had Massoud not been killed in 2001?

strangel00p

bluecode wrote: »

Don't sound so pleased about it Border-Rat. It's a tragedy for the Afghan people if they return to their medieval ways. But sometimes there's no helping them. They distrust foreigners and have always done so.

Perhaps they are happy with their medieval ways and want to be left alone. If they distrust foreigners then they certainly have good reason to.

Maoltuile

bluecode wrote: »

But sometimes there's no helping them. They distrust foreigners and have always done so.

What a patronising comment. I'm sure there's a few countries not for from this one that the same thing could be said of.

BostonB

They've been fighting over Afghanistan since ancient times, silk road, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan etc. I don't see how it can be "won".

DipStick McSwindler

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Gee Bag

Excellent 2 part BBC documentary on Afghanistan by Rory Stewart. Covers the wars with the British in the 19th century, Soviet invasion and NATO invasion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qND9B9f0iE

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rory_Stewart

IrishFeeney92 wrote: »

Only way it can be won is with the big red button Obama controls in his office in the white house, and I doubt that will ever happen

Putting a smiley at the end of a comment doesn't stop it from being idiotic.

DipStick McSwindler

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bluecode

Maoltuile wrote: »

What a patronising comment. I'm sure there's a few countries not for from this one that the same thing could be said of.

Yes there is and yes there are plenty of people for whom there is no helping. It's not patronising, it's a fact. Deal with it. In an ideal world everyone would realise that peace and freedom is the only way to live. In the real world war and oppression is almost the norm.

Cork boy's is a good assessment of the problem.