Wednesday 12th September

rossom · 12-09-2012 7:38am #1

3.05 Doncaster

Roicead 22/1

I'm personally waiting until betting W/O is available as I see Sole Power as the most likely winner of the race but given that this is clearly a prep run for the Prix L'Abbeye for him then I also think taking the 22/1 available e/w for this 5 year old is fine. Last year for Brendan Duke, Roicead was a very progressive sprinter going from a mark of 74 in May to winning off a mark of 98 impressively by 2L in August and achieving a handicap mark of 108. That handicap victory was an extremely impressive effort as he won with a lot in hand at Cork and he really seemed like a sprinter going places. The form of that race looks extremely strong as well. The 2nd Nocturnal Affair, who re-opposes tomorrow off 2lb better terms but is battling for 2nd favouritism, has proven he is a top animal as he scored in two very competitive handicap off higher marks, won a Listed race and finished a very gallant 2.25L beaten 6th in a Group 1 in Meydan behind the excellent Ortensia. The 3rd The Reaper has also won a Listed race whilst scored in a handicap off a 6lb higher mark and finished less than a length beaten 3rd in a Group 3. This form is very pleasing reading and it really emphasised how good a sprinter Roicead really was.

On his last start as a 4 year old and indeed for Duke, Roicead put up another very good display when finishing a 2L beaten 3rd at The Curragh in a Group 3 6 days later. That day he was swallowed up late on but Brendan Duke had reported he was unlucky that the ground went a bit dead and that he would have loved it a bit faster than it was. Nevertheless, it was an excellent effort in a race that looks very strong. The 2nd was tomorrow's favourite Sole Power who finished a neck in front of Roicead with the former carrying 5lb more than he will today. Nevertheless, it showed me the sort of level this improving sprinter could run to. The form of that race is again rock solid with the 4th Move in Time winning a Listed contest on his next start, the 5th Invincible Ash has won a conditions race in Meydan beating Sole Power and Nocturnal Affair whilst the 7th Empowering has also won a Listed race this year. There is no doubt in my mind that Roicead is a top, top sprinter on his day and given him improving profile last year I definitely think there is more to come this year.

I'm guessing the owner had a falling out with Brendan Duke as I remember reading all of Duke's plans for the horse this year which included the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot and given that Roicead has moved to Willie Mccreery this year I'm guessing this must have happened. I also remember that Duke said he felt the horse would improve again for another winter and that there would be more to come this year. We've had an awful time with the rain this year which clearly didn't suit Roicead so all those plans clearly went out the window. He made his debut for current connections in June at The Curragh on clearly unsuitable heavy ground so I think they just wanted to get a run into him before embarking upon an autumn campaign. With the weather over here still pretty crap, he's been sent across the Irish Sea where he gets the quick conditions he craves and I think he's definitely coming over here with connections thinking he's got a very live chance. He's got a great draw in stall 12 and first time cheekpieces are applied which should hopefully eek about a little more improvement. Declan McDonogh makes the trip over from Ireland for just one ride (rides one more for McCreery tomorrow) so I'm taking it as a signal of intent from connections. Given that he was so progressive last year and if discounting his seasonal reappearance due to the ground, I don't quite how see how he is a 22/1 shot and if fully wound up I think he will definitely challenge for the placings and if he finds a slightly off colour Sole Power than he may just snag this prize.

Also like the look of

5.00 Galway The Lady Granuaile 16/1
6.15 Kempton Livia's Dream 14/1

akelly02 · 12-09-2012 9:25am

Thats a great post, fair play to ya. hes currently 20/1 and 14s without sole Power. Will keep a close eye on him as the field is lacking progressive sprinters!