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Bankroll management

  • 25-08-2012 9:33pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Poor bankroll management is the number 1 reason most sports bettors lose in the long run.

    So how do you decide how much to wager on each bet?

    Do you use any statistical measures such as kelly criterion and if so how do you determine your probability of winning?


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    Confidence in the bet and probability. Longer odds and probability, then smaller bets.

    One thing gamblers do wrong though is take the bookies odds as a sign of what to put on. If a horse they fancy opens up at 3/1, they might decide to put on 50. However, if the horse opened up at Evens, they might have 100 on. A bookies perception shouldn't change what you think the probability is. If anything you should be putting more on at the longer odds, as you're getting more value compared with what you think the probability is.

    For example, I really fancy Cork tomorrow. I have them at about 66% probability (1/2). I wpuldnt bet at that price. They are 4/6, and I was planning on having around 130 on at that price. However, PP were offering them at 11/10 on a special the last day. So I had 200 on, as I'm getting huge value compared to what I think their price should be (1/2)


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Confidence in the bet and probability. Longer odds and probability, then smaller bets.

    One thing gamblers do wrong though is take the bookies odds as a sign of what to put on. If a horse they fancy opens up at 3/1, they might decide to put on 50. However, if the horse opened up at Evens, they might have 100 on. A bookies perception shouldn't change what you think the probability is. If anything you should be putting more on at the longer odds, as you're getting more value compared with what you think the probability is.

    For example, I really fancy Cork tomorrow. I have them at about 66% probability (1/2). I wpuldnt bet at that price. They are 4/6, and I was planning on having around 130 on at that price. However, PP were offering them at 11/10 on a special the last day. So I had 200 on, as I'm getting huge value compared to what I think their price should be (1/2)
    what was the process you went through to decide the probability of a cork win is 66%?

    why e200 instead of e150 or e300?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,002 ✭✭✭ Hulk Hands
    Registered User


    Well the percentage is probably a bit exact. Before the prices came out, I priced up the market in my own head, what I believed should be the prices in a fair 100% market like betfair. I had Cork ar 1/2. That's very short, but like I said, I fancy them big time.

    The pricing is just something to be worked out on your own. A combination of what you can afford to lose, what you aim to return, the value you think your getting etc. This 200 bet would've been 100 this time last year, as I can afford more now. Like I said, the bet also increased because I thought I was getting increased value. It's just something you have to judge yourself. This is probably one of only 2/3 times this year ill have a bet of this size, as my confidence is high. Maybe some punters have a maths based method of choosing bet sizes. Most just try to judge it in their own head and gut feeling. It probably amounts to little more than picking a random round figure sometimes


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Come on folks, 80 views and 1 poster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,734 zarquon
    Registered User


    Usually stick to between 2% and 4% myself. Would go slightly higher on a bet i deem to be undervalued greatly.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    Hulk Hands wrote: »
    Confidence in the bet and probability. Longer odds and probability, then smaller bets.

    One thing gamblers do wrong though is take the bookies odds as a sign of what to put on. If a horse they fancy opens up at 3/1, they might decide to put on 50. However, if the horse opened up at Evens, they might have 100 on. A bookies perception shouldn't change what you think the probability is. If anything you should be putting more on at the longer odds, as you're getting more value compared with what you think the probability is.

    For example, I really fancy Cork tomorrow. I have them at about 66% probability (1/2). I wpuldnt bet at that price. They are 4/6, and I was planning on having around 130 on at that price. However, PP were offering them at 11/10 on a special the last day. So I had 200 on, as I'm getting huge value compared to what I think their price should be (1/2)

    looks like Paddy Power knew what he was doing offering Cork @ 11/10 as a special. I was edging towards Cork myself but because I was finding it too hard to call with any confidence, I thankfully swerved the game as a betting option.

    Back to OP, what tends to ruin my bankroll is going too big on a long odds on when I'm ahead, often tennis in-running with a player a set up. I had a few disasters recently with tennis players retiring injured and the price changing before I was aware and it them being too late to trade outs. Lesson, dont back tennis in running unless you have live streams that can alert you.

    Always green up might be good advice even if the bet would have won you more it you let it run. Remember its a profit and not a loss.


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    If you were to bet 10% of your bankroll what would be a bet that you would require to do so?

    Would you ever bet 20% on a realastic bet? Not 100/1 on city to win the pl, ect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,721 ✭✭✭ 3DataModem
    Registered User


    Avoid in running tennis like the plague (especially low-ranked players in open tournament) more fixes in that than any other sport IMO.

    Kelly is a good starting point.


  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ famagusta
    Registered User


    OP,

    i think its important that you have a staking plan but don't over complicate it.

    to be using the likes of kelly criterion you need to know the exact price that your selection should be to compare to the price you are getting, then your stake can be calculated for you. obvioulsy in sport coming up with your price won't be an exact science so don't get bogged down in this. from constantly looking at prices/ odds over time you will (or should) be able to more or less price up a match yourself.

    basically what i do is something like this. for example if arsenal were at home to liverpool on saturday, i would roughly price up the match myself using my experience, stats, team news etc..

    I have my bank as follows

    Bank = 100 Euro, Stakes 1pt = 2euro to 5pts = 10euro

    if i think arsenal are a 5/4 shot and the bookies are 6/4 or higher, i will bet 1 to 5 points depending on what price i'm getting. my usual stake would be 2 - 3 pts or more if i'm getting serious value

    a lot of the time in soccer you can get a couple of % value in backing the draw, its been a nice bread winner for me in the last couple of years.

    hope this helps,

    best of luck


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Im seriously considering playing it very cautious betting 2% on all my bets in future.

    It would be very slow going.

    Im am a LSP profitable punter but my roi is getting hammered down by betting 10-15%.

    I only bet football, only singles and all my bets would be between 4/9 and 6/4.

    Im just going to have to be a lot more patient and take the view that in 3 years at 2% stake and maintaining my current LSP% I will have
    very large balance wheras before I was aiming for Ex in 6 months.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ famagusta
    Registered User


    Patience is the key as you have said. you won't make a fortune overnight

    if i was you i would increase my % stake though. for example why don't you just use 5% instead of 2% of your bank. at those odds your strike rate will be very high!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,663 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows
    Registered User


    Im seriously considering playing it very cautious betting 2% on all my bets in future.

    It would be very slow going.

    Im am a LSP profitable punter but my roi is getting hammered down by betting 10-15%.

    I only bet football, only singles and all my bets would be between 4/9 and 6/4.

    Im just going to have to be a lot more patient and take the view that in 3 years at 2% stake and maintaining my current LSP% I will have
    very large balance wheras before I was aiming for Ex in 6 months.

    Backing singles, very profitable , football, long run:D

    No mate just not gonna happen,

    You will lose like everybody else

    Or ado you think you are the 1or2% of profitable punters, who profit from hard work, price discrepancy /arbitrage, inside knowledge and technical trading with fast machines.

    Because if not, in the long run you WILL lose!

    Have fun betting don't think you can actually profit long term!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,191 BKC
    Registered User



    Backing singles, very profitable , football, long run:D

    No mate just not gonna happen,

    You will lose like everybody else

    Or ado you think you are the 1or2% of profitable punters, who profit from hard work, price discrepancy /arbitrage, inside knowledge and technical trading with fast machines.

    Because if not, in the long run you WILL lose!

    Have fun betting don't think you can actually profit long term!!

    That's bull****. I don't see any reason why someone can't be profitable long term without the stuff you listed.


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Backing singles, very profitable , football, long run:D

    No mate just not gonna happen,

    You will lose like everybody else

    Or ado you think you are the 1or2% of profitable punters, who profit from hard work, price discrepancy /arbitrage, inside knowledge and technical trading with fast machines.

    Because if not, in the long run you WILL lose!

    Have fun betting don't think you can actually profit long term!!
    if you understand how the bookies price up their football markets you know they are extremely vulnerable to short term fluctuations in form, tactics and injuries.

    cover about 10 leagues and you will find about 5 +EV bets with an expected ROI of 15-20% each week.

    Also I very rarely bet english football where their lines are sharpest.

    I have the hard work, long hours and stats work down (not the stat work i see on here thats both teams scored 4 goals in their last matches so imagonna bet over 2.5 goals).

    There are thousands of professional sports bettors in the uk alone that use none of your requirements bar hard work.


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭✭ Wishful Thinking
    Registered User


    I use the unit stake system & stay with it. I'll then bet anywhere from 1/2 a point to 10 points based on confidence is selection and don't be influenced by price. Just because it's Evs doesn't mean I have 3 points in it. While I may actually fancy a 20/1 shot more than the even money shot and bet accordingly.

    I have often seen punters put a hundred on a horse one day and a fiver the next and it's not because they fancy the first more it's just what's in their pocket that day. That's utter madness

    I find with my method I'm not going to get rich quick & it can sometimes feel very attrititinal as your betting balance is slow and steady but it avoids any blowouts and I'm happy to be winning or losing in small amounts rather than all duck or no dinner


  • Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭ JHet
    Registered User


    What the best way to manage a bank if you are constantly backing short prices?


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭✭ Wishful Thinking
    Registered User


    JHet wrote: »
    What the best way to manage a bank if you are constantly backing short prices?[/Quote

    Depends how big your bankroll is.

    If you have €500 and like only backing 1/2 shots and lower, the gains will be small but a bad run of 3 losers in a row and your under the cosh.

    You would need to have an eagle eye of spotting odds on shots that should be even shorter than they are


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Basically Im coming to the conclusion that you should never ever bet more than 5%.

    The kelly system can recommend close to 50% at times which is madness.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    Basically Im coming to the conclusion that you should never ever bet more than 5%.

    The kelly system can recommend close to 50% at times which is madness.

    Good thread. Patience and discipline seem to be the key advice all round. And it's what we all mainly seem to lack. I'm coming to the conclusion that it is impossible (especially for me) to win in the long run.

    For example, I recently turned a €50 deposit into a €1,000 on Betfair through luck and deciplined choices. But then I start dreaming about the next €1,000, spend endless hours on Betfair and it all goes pear shaped, eg backing a long odds on as a sure thing to boost bankroll, high risk for small reward. Or lay a fav at horses and it wins and think the next 4 favs cant win surely? but they do and your suddenly backing a fav to get back to where you were.

    So, I think I've come to the conclusion that my moments of discipline are too short for long term success.

    Out of Curiosity, how many hours per day would someone betting to a system stay on the likes of Betfair? i.e aside from finding and studying selections? is it a case of decide on bets , place same and leave alone until settled?

    I use to think I had to win by just laying one horse per race a few times each day, but it only takes the odd winner and commission to ruin profit .

    Maybe more that any system, can someone post the "no nos" for anyone looking at applying a system.


  • Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭ JHet
    Registered User


    I suffer too from the same pangs of prolonged discipline followed by moments of madness which leads me to similiar conclusions. It is indeed quite hard to maintain discipline long term. I've turned 100 into over 2000 only to lose it all. Mind you I've never lost huge huge money. I usually throw in 100 see how far I can go with it. Haven't made a deposit in about 2 yrs I'd say and still going strong. Good bank management has served me well in that regard and I now maintain a spreadsheet that tracks this.

    All the same I do enjoy it, and its more of pasttime for me than anything else.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    JHet wrote: »
    I suffer too from the same pangs of prolonged discipline followed by moments of madness which leads me to similiar conclusions. It is indeed quite hard to maintain discipline long term. I've turned 100 into over 2000 only to lose it all. Mind you I've never lost huge huge money. I usually throw in 100 see how far I can go with it. Haven't made a deposit in about 2 yrs I'd say and still going strong. Good bank management has served me well in that regard and I now maintain a spreadsheet that tracks this.

    All the same I do enjoy it, and its more of pasttime for me than anything else.

    Very impressed that you haven't had to make a deposit for about two yrs. I would like to do it as hobby only, mainly because I'm a sports fanatic. Any tips for "Dos & Don'ts" to pass on to protect bankroll?


  • Registered Users Posts: 430 ✭✭ OnTheCounter
    Registered User


    Ye would think that at this stage there would be hard and fast rules instead of just the kelly criterion which requires inexperienced punters to guess at the winning percentage which makes the whole kelly bet system hugely flawed.

    people seem to have a max bet of 10% here and think that is conserative. Its not.

    Its hard enough to find profitable bets but its only one part of the process for someone looking to grow a bankroll using a variable bank betting strategy.

    better to bet too little than too much.


  • Registered Users Posts: 524 ✭✭✭ JHet
    Registered User


    Howjoe1 wrote: »
    Very impressed that you haven't had to make a deposit for about two yrs. I would like to do it as hobby only, mainly because I'm a sports fanatic. Any tips for "Dos & Don'ts" to pass on to protect bankroll?

    Well to be honest your mileage may vary mate and not sure you should be taking advice from a hobbyist but generally I never bet over 2-10% of my bank. If I think the bet is value I might bet a bit bigger than than but generally try to stay disciplined. Value for me is determined subjectively using instincts although others use far more Scientific methods. One thing is I do is try to find bets that return twice, three times, fours times my stake. Returns are bigger but strike rate is lower than someone like BKC(who breaks all the rules by the way :) ) who back all short odds. It suits my trading style better. I think the main thing is to be very selective in the bets you do make and not make bets for the sake of it, a trap I've fallen into myself. I think for the amateur and pro's for that matter only using a small % of your bank is the only way to long term profitability.(no disrespect to BKC who is somewhat of an enigma when it comes to profitability and short odds! :D)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,666 ✭✭✭ Howjoe1


    JHet wrote: »
    Well to be honest your mileage may vary mate and not sure you should be taking advice from a hobbyist but generally I never bet over 2-10% of my bank. If I think the bet is value I might bet a bit bigger than than but generally try to stay disciplined. Value for me is determined subjectively using instincts although others use far more Scientific methods. One thing is I do is try to find bets that return twice, three times, fours times my stake. Returns are bigger but strike rate is lower than someone like BKC(who breaks all the rules by the way :) ) who back all short odds. It suits my trading style better. I think the main thing is to be very selective in the bets you do make and not make bets for the sake of it, a trap I've fallen into myself. I think for the amateur and pro's for that matter only using a small % of your bank is the only way to long term profitability.(no disrespect to BKC who is somewhat of an enigma when it comes to profitability and short odds! :D)

    Chreers. Are they certain sports you prefer to back on and others you avoid like the plague?


  • Registered Users Posts: 522 ✭✭ ValueSeeker
    Registered User


    Basically Im coming to the conclusion that you should never ever bet more than 5%.


    You shouldn't or you will more than likely bust your bankroll at some stage due to the laws of probability.

    The kelly system can recommend close to 50% at times which is madness

    The Kelly system itself is advised against but the concept is well worth paying attention to. I use a spin of this staking strategy: I stake on a 1-5 unit scale, equating 5 points to a quote of 50% using the Kelly formula and 1pt on 10% etc. Maximising value is key while avoiding the pitfalls of over staking.

    Or try using a fraction of the Kelly Criterion.

    Estimating probabilities accurately is just something you can or can't do I'm afraid and the real key is experience and knowledge. Stats will not tell you the whole story which is a big reason the odds can be exploited.

    It's just as important to know when you don't have an edge to when you do have an edge in a particular market and unfortunately (at least for me), my edge is a lot lower than it once was in football, as the industry gets wiser.


  • Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭ BettorAssist
    Registered User


    1. Max stake should be 2%.
    If you are familiar with professionals ROI you will agree with this.

    2. Singles only, without exception.

    If you feel your bankroll is too small to justify 2% bets, add what you can when you can to it, but if you bet much higher you will eliminate any long term edge you may have.

    The old saying its a marathon not a sprint is very apt here.


  • Registered Users Posts: 209 ✭✭ Tarzann
    Registered User


    Backing singles, very profitable , football, long run:D

    No mate just not gonna happen,

    You will lose like everybody else

    Or ado you think you are the 1or2% of profitable punters, who profit from hard work, price discrepancy /arbitrage, inside knowledge and technical trading with fast machines.

    Because if not, in the long run you WILL lose!

    Have fun betting don't think you can actually profit long term!!


    LOL stick to the weather.

    It just takes discipline and knowing the difference between who is most likely to win and who is most value at the current odds.


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