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Are these two tropical waves too close together for separate development?

  • 18-08-2012 6:55pm
    #1
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭


    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

    If you have a look at the satellite image above, one of the tropical waves is expected to develop, with the NHC giving it a 50% chance of developing within the next 48 hours.

    Beside it to the east is another apparent tropical wave just emerging from Africa. The NHC hasn't given this an 'invest' status just yet (meaning they aren't considering it likely to develop within the next 48 hours) but the NHC generally takes a while to officially acknowledge new tropical waves as potential cyclones.

    Question is, will this wave ultimately be absorbed by the current invest wave (94L, I think) which is the 50% one? Or is it far enough away that it might develop as a separate tropical wave?

    (This might seem like a newbish question but I've seen tropical waves appear to 'merge' before so I didn't want to be too sure of myself in considering this new one a distinct system in and of itself)


Comments

  • #2
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 330 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    I am not sure what might happen as long as they remain waves, but there are studies done on how two closed systems interact - this phenomenon is known as the Fujiwhara Effect.

    When the cyclones approach each other, the two centres orbit caused by the cyclonic circulations. Eventually they merge and the larger one dominates - this happens when a system is a tropical storm or stronger.

    More here -
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect


  • #3
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Thanks, that's actually explains a lot! Seems likely with waves like these as they're all travelling in (more or less) the same direction and the same general speed.

    Map was updated in the last couple of hours, NHC now regards the newer wave as an invest system as well. Looks like August is trying to make up for the tropically silent July :eek:


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