The North American Drought

Colmustard

I think this is very serious and will effect us all next year, it will push food inflation up by 5% but I think that is optimistic, coupled with fuel inflation I expect food inflation to reach 8%. That is OK for us we will moan but we wont starve. There are parts of the world that will. Food inflation is the main reason the Arab spring happened, that is the disruption it can cause and now it is set to get worse.

North america is the bread basket of the world, picture the whole of Ireland under grain, then picture the whole of Idaho under grain and that is only one state in the grain belt. This grain doesn't only make cornflakes, it is cattle feed, chicken feed, it is the sweeteners in our soft drinks it contacts most things we eat.

What if this drought goes into next year and the year after.

Consumers can expect the worst US drought in 50 years to cast a shadow across food prices throughout 2013, according to fresh government data released Wednesday. The estimates are the first to capture the effects of this summer’s drought in America’s heartland, and show food prices increasing at a rate well above normal expectations.

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=6&cad=rja&ved=0CFcQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wired.com%2Fwiredscience%2F2012%2F07%2Fdrought-food-prices-2013%2F&ei=sIYvUI6BAYrOhAfK3YGoCw&usg=AFQjCNEessT83D8HCm42uJJ3E1Vk-v9jTA&sig2=2f2_CE5jf-L-jkuTezg_8g

Biggins

We should be more concerned about the price of oil going up again next week too!
Up another five cents at least it appears.

Expect a trickle-down effect on the price of products eventually.

bnt

Not just food, either: a lot of Corn goes in to Ethanol for fuel. Up go the gas prices, too.

Still, the USA's loss is Canada's gain: Canola growers in particular are smiling.

Ellis Dee

The drought in the USA is the result of the jetstream moving south, which in Europe's case has allowed colder Arctic weather to hit us and led to disappointing crop yields here as well.:cool:

A further factor that is likely to put pressure on world foodstuffs prices is the fairly disappointing Indian monsoon, with rainfall about 20% below normal.:)

Rothmans

I doubt what's happening to American food stocks will have much of an effect on prices in Ireland. However, the fact that a huge amount of crops here were destroyed due to the torrential summer may have a more telling effect on food prices over here.
Tbh, corn only become a substitute in many ingredients because its cheap . . .its only a substitute, so people can always revert back to the original products.

Colmustard

Rothmans wrote: »

I doubt what's happening to American food stocks will have much of an effect on prices in Ireland. However, the fact that a huge amount of crops here were destroyed due to the torrential summer may have a more telling effect on food prices over here.
Tbh, corn only become a substitute in many ingredients because its cheap . . .its only a substitute, so people can always revert back to the original products.

Yes it will it decreases the supply going into the market, therefore all food prices increase. The market price for food is set internationally at the commodities exchange. Ireland is a trading nation.

old_aussie

Colmustard wrote: »

Food inflation is the main reason the Arab spring happened, that is the disruption it can cause and now it is set to get worse.

So it was nothing to do with wanting democracy and freedom

Colmustard

old_aussie wrote: »

So it was nothing to do with wanting democracy and freedom

Food inflation was the main catalyse that started the revolution.

Democracy was just a change which they thought would make things better. I hope it does.

Ellis Dee

old_aussie wrote: »

So it was nothing to do with wanting democracy and freedom

I don't think anyone said a desire for those things was not a factor, but they had been absent for decades without the people getting too restive.

It was steeply rising food prices that, to mix metaphors somewhat, proved to be the straw that broke the camel's back and made the worm turn.;)

There are many channels of escapism through which people can learn to live without democracy and freedom, for a time anyway, but when the pangs of hunger hit, action is much more likely.:D

Grayson

old_aussie wrote: »

So it was nothing to do with wanting democracy and freedom

Not really. At least not at first. The initial unrest was caused by food riots. This led onto something worse (or better depending on your point of view). citizens looked at their leadership not caring and thought "fcuk you"


And grain prices in the US will have an effect here. We might grow a lot of veggies but we don't grow anywhere near enough grain for our livestock or out bakeries. Most comes from the US. a small bit from russia. So we'll see the cost of feed for cattle go up. that will cause an increase in meat and dairy.

To put it in perspective, there are currently food riots in Iran. It's over the price of chicken. The reason is that beacuse of banking sanctions chicken growers/rearers/whatever they're called are finding it hard to import feed from abroad. It means the price of chicken has tripled. So people are rioting.

Rothmans

Colmustard wrote: »

Yes it will it decreases the supply going into the market, therefore all food prices increase. The market price for food is set internationally at the commodities exchange. Ireland is a trading nation.

The supply going into the Irish market will be affected by the Irish weather, not the American weather.

Colmustard

Rothmans wrote: »

The supply going into the Irish market will be affected by the Irish weather, not the American weather.

Where do you think our supply come from, we are a food exporter but we are also a food importer practically all our animal feed and grain for bread is imported.

It is all supply and demand if a bushel of grain costs say 1 dollar it will cost 1 dollar here. Like oil if a barrel of oil is priced at 70 dollars that is the price internationally.

Augmerson

Colmustard wrote: »

Food inflation is the main reason the Arab spring happened.

No, just....no.

Grayson

Augmerson wrote: »

No, just....no.

Wikipedia disagrees

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

Motivations

A commemorative logo for the Arab Spring which began on 18 December 2010.

Numerous factors have led to the protests, including issues such as dictatorship or absolute monarchy, human rights violations, government corruption (demonstrated by Wikileaks diplomatic cables),[144] economic decline, unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors,[145] such as a large percentage of educated but dissatisfied youth within the population.[146] Also, some, like Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Zizek attribute the 2009 Iranian protests as one of the reasons behind the Arab Spring.[147] The 2010 Kyrgyzstani revolution might also have been one of the factors, which influenced the beginning of the Arab Spring. The catalysts for the revolts in all Northern African and Persian Gulf countries have been the concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats in power for decades, insufficient transparency of its redistribution, corruption, and especially the refusal of the youth to accept the status quo.[148] Increasing food prices and global famine rates have also been a significant factor,[149][150] as they involve threats to food security worldwide and prices that approach levels of the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[151] Amnesty International singled out Wikileaks' release of US diplomatic cables as a catalyst for the revolts.[152]

It wasn't the only cause. But it was a major contributer in generating dissatisfaction for many.

Augmerson

Grayson wrote: »

Wikipedia disagrees

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring



It wasn't the only cause. But it was a major contributer in generating dissatisfaction for many.

He said the main factor. I disagreed with that. Certainly a contributing factor. I didn't say it was not true at all, the Wiki link you provided clarifies that and backs up how I feel. There were many, many factors contributing to what happen in North Africa and the Middle East.

ScissorPaperRock

Rothmans wrote: »

The supply going into the Irish market will be affected by the Irish weather, not the American weather.

Food and especially grain is an international commodity. Large shocks to the supply of food anywhere affects prices in the whole system.

Ireland is not a food sovereign country.

Rothmans

Colmustard wrote: »

Where do you think our supply come from, we are a food exporter but we are also a food importer practically all our animal feed and grain for bread is imported.

It is all supply and demand if a bushel of grain costs say 1 dollar it will cost 1 dollar here. Like oil if a barrel of oil is priced at 70 dollars that is the price internationally.

You're using free-market economics, which is highly theoretical. Its important to factor in import duties, import transportation costs etc, non-economic forces which would render domestic produce cheaper.

Colmustard

Augmerson wrote: »

He said the main factor. I disagreed with that. Certainly a contributing factor. I didn't say it was not true at all, the Wiki link you provided clarifies that and backs up how I feel. There were many, many factors contributing to what happen in North Africa and the Middle East.

I still think it was the main factor, the riots started out in Tunisia as a food inflation riot and went from there, the rest of the Arab world followed. But its not really relevant, peoples food security is tantamount in importance. If that becomes uncertain in a population there will be trouble. As I said we in the west will be OK but other parts of the world will not be.

Grayson

Colmustard wrote: »

I still think it was the main factor, the riots started out in Tunisia as a food inflation riot and went from there, the rest of the Arab world followed. But its not really relevant, peoples food security is tantamount in importance. If that becomes uncertain in a population there will be trouble. As I said we in the west will be OK but other parts of the world will not be.

thing is we're talking about loads and loads of countries. I believe in tunisia it was a larger factor than in yemen.

Colmustard

Rothmans wrote: »

You're using free-market economics, which is highly theoretical. Its important to factor in import duties, import transportation costs etc, non-economic forces which would render domestic produce cheaper.

Domestic produce will still be sold at market rates. We still have to import grains, feeds and processed food which will all be affected. For example we import cornflakes.

I want to be wrong, but I don't think I am. North America is the most important food producer and exporter in the world. Is this a drought for this year only or is it a return to the era of the dustbowls.

Rothmans

Colmustard wrote: »

Domestic produce will still be sold at market rates. We still have to import grains, feeds and processed food which will all be affected. For example we import cornflakes.

I want to be wrong, but I don't think I am. North America is the most important food producer and exporter in the world. Is this a drought for this year only or is it a return to the era of the dustbowls.

Fair enough, but my point is that for many of these products surely we can either find domestic or common (ie EEA) produce if they become significantly more expensive from the US, as no duties need be paid when trading in the common market. Whereas to import from the US, with the duties and more significant transport cost, although it doesn't affect the economic 'market' price, it will affect the relevant, or 'real' cost.

Colmustard

Rothmans wrote: »

Fair enough, but my point is that for many of these products surely we can either find domestic or common (ie EEA) produce if they become significantly more expensive from the US, as no duties need be paid when trading in the common market. Whereas to import from the US, with the duties and more significant transport cost, although it doesn't affect the economic 'market' price, it will affect the relevant, or 'real' cost.

No where in Europe could possible grow the amount of grain grown on the vast empty American prairies. Even if we could its a bit late in the day, this problem is pending now.

Besides harvests in Europe in general will be down, we too are having unfavourable weather.

Rothmans

Colmustard wrote: »

No where in Europe could possible grow the amount of grain grown on the vast empty American prairies. Even if we could its a bit late in the day, this problem is pending now.

Besides harvests in Europe in general will be down, we too are having unfavourable weather.

Fair enough.

Killer Wench

It won't go into next year.

I'm from east central Illinois. A small town called Danville, Illinois which happens to be the hometown of Gene Hackman, Dick and Jerry VanDyke, and Abraham Lincoln maintained a law office here back before he was President. Even gave one of his speeches there while he was on the campaign. Danville is part of Vermilion County, and this is prime soybean and corn land. It is one of the counties declared a disaster area due to the drought. My family back home was complaining about the heat for some time (temp close to 110 degrees). It was either last week or the week before, the area got hit with some severe thunderstorms. It helped a little but more is needed.

But, this happens every so often. In about two weeks, over Labor Day weekend, the county has a Sweetcorn Festival with its own Beauty Queen contest, parade, and fair to celebrate the corn harvest, and the last time a drought hit us, we had to fly in corn from somewhere else in order to hold our celebration.

I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks, a few severe thunderstorms occur and a few one-off tornado warnings appear. I also would not be surprised if this winter, my hometown gets slammed with a very bad winter. In 2010-2011, there were several feet of snow (maybe close to six). I was back home this past winter, and there were only a few days of snow which is unheard of (barely an inch). Being a farming community, we recognized that at that point, our summer was going to be rough. An unusually warm winter usually means an extremely hot summer. But then mother nature corrects the situation by going the extreme the next time around. I remember a few years back, we had a bad winter and a rainy summer that resulted in stunted corn because of all of the water. It just happens.

Dwellingdweller

Colmustard wrote: »

No where in Europe could possible grow the amount of grain grown on the vast empty American prairies. Even if we could its a bit late in the day, this problem is pending now.

Besides harvests in Europe in general will be down, we too are having unfavourable weather.

Are the steppes of the Turkic nations, Mongolia, Russia, viable places for large-scale farming? I was thinking about this yesterday and it seems like a no-brainer.

Colmustard

Dwellingdweller wrote: »

Are the steppes of the Turkic nations, Mongolia, Russia, viable places for large-scale farming? I was thinking about this yesterday and it seems like a no-brainer.

The Ukraine was the bread basket of the soviet union for a long time. Irish farmers are farming parts of that land.

Fr_Dougal

Oh my god, we're all going to die. Eventually

Colmustard

Killer Wench wrote: »

It won't go into next year.

I'm from east central Illinois. A small town called Danville, Illinois which happens to be the hometown of Gene Hackman, Dick and Jerry VanDyke, and Abraham Lincoln maintained a law office here back before he was President. Even gave one of his speeches there while he was on the campaign. Danville is part of Vermilion County, and this is prime soybean and corn land. It is one of the counties declared a disaster area due to the drought. My family back home was complaining about the heat for some time (temp close to 110 degrees). It was either last week or the week before, the area got hit with some severe thunderstorms. It helped a little but more is needed.

But, this happens every so often. In about two weeks, over Labor Day weekend, the county has a Sweetcorn Festival with its own Beauty Queen contest, parade, and fair to celebrate the corn harvest, and the last time a drought hit us, we had to fly in corn from somewhere else in order to hold our celebration.

I would not be surprised if in the next few weeks, a few severe thunderstorms occur and a few one-off tornado warnings appear. I also would not be surprised if this winter, my hometown gets slammed with a very bad winter. In 2010-2011, there were several feet of snow (maybe close to six). I was back home this past winter, and there were only a few days of snow which is unheard of (barely an inch). Being a farming community, we recognized that at that point, our summer was going to be rough. An unusually warm winter usually means an extremely hot summer. But then mother nature corrects the situation by going the extreme the next time around. I remember a few years back, we had a bad winter and a rainy summer that resulted in stunted corn because of all of the water. It just happens.

I read the difference with this drought is it is affecting the whole of the US, before you would have a drought in one part and not in another. It is a very vast land. But glad there is some respite.

Colmustard

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Oh my god, we're all going to die. Eventually

Speak for yourself I am still not convinced that I will die someday.

Killer Wench

Heck. I'm reading facebook and my friends back home are reporting about the rain from Thursday. There was as much rain in one day as there had been over the last few months, it seems. More rain is expected on Monday and the temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s (which is unusually cool at this time of year!).

Grayson

Killer Wench wrote: »

Heck. I'm reading facebook and my friends back home are reporting about the rain from Thursday. There was as much rain in one day as there had been over the last few months, it seems. More rain is expected on Monday and the temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s (which is unusually cool at this time of year!).

yet so many still refuse to believe in climate change....

Benny_Cake

bnt wrote: »

Not just food, either: a lot of Corn goes in to Ethanol for fuel. Up go the gas prices, too.

Still, the USA's loss is Canada's gain: Canola growers in particular are smiling.

According to this George Monbiot article (and I've no way of knowing whether his figures are correct), 40% of US corn production now goes to ethanol. If true, this must rank as one of the great scandals of our time. I'm not sure where the solution to our energy needs is going to come from, but biofuels look to me to be a case of the cure being worse than the illness.

Dwellingdweller

Benny_Cake wrote: »

According to this George Monbiot article (and I've no way of knowing whether his figures are correct), 40% of US corn production now goes to ethanol. If true, this must rank as one of the great scandals of our time. I'm not sure where the solution to our energy needs is going to come from, but biofuels look to me to be a case of the cure being worse than the illness.

Why so?

Colmustard

Benny_Cake wrote: »

According to this George Monbiot article (and I've no way of knowing whether his figures are correct), 40% of US corn production now goes to ethanol. If true, this must rank as one of the great scandals of our time. I'm not sure where the solution to our energy needs is going to come from, but biofuels look to me to be a case of the cure being worse than the illness.

Its madness, that and rapeseed oil, Rapeseed oil has destroyed rainforests right across Indonesia and beyond, bio diesel is the stupidest idea ever to come out of the environmentalists mouth. Even Greenpeace admit this now after giving it initial support.

Balmed Out

Grayson wrote: »

yet so many still refuse to believe in climate change....

Is it not the reasons for climate change thats the debatable part?

Son Of A Vidic

Fúck the drought, I'm more concerned about how the OP can rack up over 1,000 posts in a month?

Colmustard

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

Fúck the drought, I'm more concerned about how the OP can rack up over 1,000 posts in a month?

I came back on for the Olympics thread. I was off for the whole olympics and watched it all morning noon and night while posting shyte.

I will be leaving again soon:(

Conmaicne Mara

Colmustard wrote: »

Its madness, that and rapeseed oil, Rapeseed oil has destroyed rainforests right across Indonesia and beyond

Perhaps you mean palm oil?

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=id&commodity=rapeseed-oil&graph=production

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=id&commodity=palm-oil&graph=production

Calibos

Dwellingdweller wrote: »

Why so?

Turns out when one takes into account all the fossil fuels burned to produce the fertiliser and pesticides, to transport the fertilizer and pesticides, to run the machinery to harvest the crop, to transport the crop to the biofuel processor and to power the processing plant and then the fuel burned to transport the biofuel to the Gas stations....................................

..........Well, it turns out you've used more energy producing the biofuel than you'll get back out of it. ie. You've ended up burning more fossil fuels and added more CO2 to the atmosphere rather than less.

Biofuels only have a hope of being economical if you are turning a wasteproduct of some other process into fuel.

im invisible

Calibos wrote: »

Turns out when one takes into account all the fossil fuels burned to produce the fertiliser and pesticides, to transport the fertilizer and pesticides, to run the machinery to harvest the crop, to transport the crop to the biofuel processor and to power the processing plant and then the fuel burned to transport the biofuel to the Gas stations....................................

..........Well, it turns out you've used more energy producing the biofuel than you'll get back out of it. ie. You've ended up burning more fossil fuels and added more CO2 to the atmosphere rather than less.

Biofuels only have a hope of being economical if you are turning a wasteproduct of some other process into fuel.

second law of thermodynamics, who'd have thought it?

1ZRed

Sure it's 2012, what's this "next year" talk out of ya?

/thread

Duckworth_Luas

I was in the US mid-west in July for 10 days. Holy ****! Could not operate in that heat. I'd take the Irish rain over that misery any time!

bnt

Conmaicne Mara wrote: »

Perhaps you mean palm oil?

Yeh, I think he does. The word "rapeseed" sounds dodgy for obvious reasons ("it's a seed that rapes!"), but it's just a variation on the Latin for "turnip" ("rapa"). Earlier, I mentioned a particular rapeseed variant that's more suitable for food uses, which was given a totally different made-up name, just to avoid the connotations: CANadian Oilseed, Low Acid (CANOLA).