Best prices this weekend

okidoki987

"Big 5"


Man Utd Bet Fred, Bet Victor, PP & Hills best at 10/11
Arsenal PP & Hills best at 4/9
Liverpool PP & Hills best at Evens
Man City Bet Victor, PP, Coral & Hills Best at 1/5
Chelsea Bet Victor Best 4/6

€10 fivefold on the above would yield as follows

PP €106.91
Hills €106.91
Bet Victor €104.36

Big Gap then!

Bluesq €93.55
Bet365 €92.35
Coral €91.45
Ladbrokes €90.35
SkyBet €89.83
Stan James €88.91
Betfred 88.45
Boyles €87.66

Interesting stuff!
Might keep a record each week to see who's top.

Formation

Another reason why accumulators are a terrible bet.

It would definately be interesting to see how it goes.

Over the season I would expect Bet365 to be in the top 3 and Paddy Power to fall outside the top 5.

clickerquicklic

Anyone been to ladbrokes shop today know if liverpool are still evens?

okidoki987

Another reason why accumulators are a terrible bet.

.......with certain bookies.

I think it will be PP & Hills fighting it out for 1st and the rest going for 3rd.
Time will tell.

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Anyone think Fulham at 9/1 to beat United in Old Trafford is a big price?

I know historically their record is terrible, but 5 goals in the first match will have them in good form, utd looked average last night. Could be worth a small wager.

Also - Everton looked knackered last night and we have this every year - Mid-table team put sterling performance in to beat top 4 side, lose next match. But they are playing Villa away who i'm not sure about. Opinions?

DB74

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

... we have this every year - Mid-table team put sterling performance in to beat top 4 side, lose next match.

Interesting angle. I'll try to have a closer look at this later on today to see if there is any mileage in it.

DB74

OK, season-by-season, taking teams who beat one of the big 4 (from that season) and how they got in in their next league match

2011/12 (Utd, City, Chelsea, Arsenal)

17/09/11: Blackburn 4-3 Arsenal: Lost 3-1 away to Newcastle at odds of 7/2
23/10/11: QPR 1-0 Chelsea: Lost 3-1 away to Spurs at odds of 8/1
31/12/11: Man Utd 2-3 Blackburn: Lost 2-1 at home to Stoke at odds of 6/4
01/01/12: Sunderland 1-0 Man City: Won 4-1 away to Wigan at odds of 7/4
02/01/12: Fulham 2-1 Arsenal: Lost 3-1 away to Blackburn at odds of 6/4 (won FA Cup match 4-0 in between at home to Charlton)
04/01/12: Newcastle 4-0 Man Utd: Won 1-0 home to QPR at odds of 5/6 (won FA Cup match 2-1 in between at home to Blackburn)
15/01/12: Swansea 3-2 Arsenal: Lost 2-0 away to Sunderland at odds of 10/3
31/01/12: Everton 1-0 Man City: Drew 1-1 away to Wigan at odds of 11/10
11/02/12: Everton 2-0 Chelsea: Drew 1-1 away to QPR at odds of 7/5 (won FA Cup match 2-1 in between at home to Fulham)
03/03/12: West Brom 1-0 Chelsea: Lost 2-0 away to Man Utd at odds of 11/1
11/03/12: Swansea 1-0 Man City: Won 3-0 away to Fulham at odds of 11/4
31/03/12: QPR 1-0 Arsenal: Lost 2-0 away to Man Utd at odds of 14/1
11/04/12: Wigan 1-0 Man Utd: Won 2-1 away to Arsenal at odds of 11/1
16/04/12: Arsenal 2-3 Wigan: Lost 2-1 away to Fulham at odds of 13/4
02/05/12: Chelsea 0-2 Newcastle: Lost 2-0 at home to Man City at odds of 4/1

So last season if you had backed a team who had beaten one of the big 4 in their next league match you would have had 4 winners from 15 bets and a LSP of ended up in profit of 6.33pts

Figures are skewed slightly by Wigan having 2 good results in a row against Man Utd & Arsenal in late season and also by the FA Cup breaks.

One interesting thing is that one good result doesn't really seem to see that team being overbet next time out to any great extent. Who would expect Wigan to have gone off at 13/4 away to Fulham having beaten Arsenal & Man Utd in their previous 2 matches or Blackburn being available at 6/4 at home to Stoke having beaten Man Utd just 2 days earlier at Old Trafford?

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Thanks for that, very interesting.

Can i ask how you pulled the info together so quickly?

Also, knowing the above, what are your thoughts on Everton over the next few away matches?

How about Fulham at 9/1?

DB74

Mr_Roger_Bongos wrote: »

Thanks for that, very interesting.

Can i ask how you pulled the info together so quickly?

Also, knowing the above, what are your thoughts on Everton over the next few away matches?

How about Fulham at 9/1?

Downloaded each season from footballdata website (link below) into Excel and then manually looked through it. No macros or anything like that, just column sorting and some manual work etc.

http://www.football-data.co.uk/englandm.php

Re Everton, before looking at the stats I would have disagreed with your classification of them as a mid-table team (I would have regarded them as Top-6 material but with bad starts last 2 years) but their performances last year after the 2 big wins above would make me lean more towards your assessment of them. Villa are no great shakes though so probably a draw here for me.

Re Fulham, Man Utd have only lost 6 league games at home over the last 5 seasons (ie from 95 matches) and when you take into consideration that 4 of those were to bitter rivals (City x 2, Liverpool, Chelsea). In addition over the last 5 seasons, on 16 occasions after a league defeat, Utd's next league match has been at home. They have won all 16 of those matches. They have lost a couple of away ones and drawn a couple as well but at home after a defeat they are next to impossible to beat. Only 5 goals conceded in those 16 matches too so Utd to win to NIL at 23/20 (Hills) is tempting.

One bet I like at the weekend is Liverpool to beat Man City. Most of Liverpool's problems are happening when they are favourites against the lower lights in the league while they are excellent when it comes to playing against the big teams (Utd, City, Arsenal, Chelsea), especially at home where they are 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat from the last 2 seasons against those sides at Anfield. Odds of better than 2/1 are very generous IMO.

okidoki987

25th/26th August

Big 4 (as Liverpool are playing MC)

Chelsea PP Best 4/7
Man City PP & Hills Best at 6/4
Man Utd Bet Victor, PP & Hills best at 1/3
Arsenal Bet Victor, PP & Hills best at 6/5

€10 Accum on the above would yield as follows

PP €115.24
Hills €112.44
Bet Victor €110.20

Rest:

Coral €100.46
Betfred €98.48
Stan James €97.26
Bluesq €97.26
Bet365 €93.15
SkyBet €93.15
Boyles €93.15
Ladbrokes €92.14

Top 3 haven't changed!

DB74

DB74 wrote: »

Re Fulham, Man Utd have only lost 6 league games at home over the last 5 seasons (ie from 95 matches) and when you take into consideration that 4 of those were to bitter rivals (City x 2, Liverpool, Chelsea). In addition over the last 5 seasons, on 16 occasions after a league defeat, Utd's next league match has been at home. They have won all 16 of those matches. They have lost a couple of away ones and drawn a couple as well but at home after a defeat they are next to impossible to beat. Only 5 goals conceded in those 16 matches too so Utd to win to NIL at 23/20 (Hills) is tempting.

Doesn't betting piss you off sometimes. Fulham score in the first minute. FFS.

okidoki987

Yep.
Backed Utd to win both halves at 15/8 and tried *unsucessfully" to lay it off at 1/2 at half time
I'd say a lot of people did the Utd, Chelsea & Spurs Treble today as well.

DB74

DB74 wrote: »

Re Everton ... Villa are no great shakes though so probably a draw here for me.

Re Fulham, Man Utd ... Utd to win to NIL at 23/20 (Hills) is tempting.

One bet I like at the weekend is Liverpool to beat Man City. Odds of better than 2/1 are very generous IMO.

That's it for the freebies lads. You can pick your own losers from next weekend!

:rolleyes:

okidoki987

In Running is your friend .

Warper

Newcastle top-price 4-6 with PP to beat Villa at home this weekend.

Generally BetVictor have the best odds overall though regards soccer

okidoki987

Fixtures 1st/2nd Sep>
(No Chelsea so put in Tottenham & Liverpool to avoid a Top 5 arguement!)

Man Utd Best Price BetVictor 8/13
Man City Best Price Boyles, BetVictor, PP & Hills 2/9
Arsenal Best Price Stan James 3/1
Tottenham Best Price Coral, Bluesq, PP & Hills 2/5
Liverpool Best Price PP & Hills 23/20


€10 Accum (MU, Man City, Tottenham & Liverpool - 4 shortest prices) yields

Bet Victor €58.86
PP €57.81
Hills €56.14

Rest:

Coral €54.10
Bluesq €54.10
Betfred €54.00
Ladbrokes €52.69
Boyles €52.39
Bet365 €51.89
SkyBet €50.18
Stan James €50.32

Top 3 unchanged - BetVictor takes over at top, Stan James fall to bottom.

okidoki987

Fixtures 14th Sep
Big 5

Man Utd Best Price Hills 3/10
Man City Best Price BetVictor, PP & Hills 3/4
Arsenal Best Price PP & Hills 2/5
Liverpool Best Price BlueSq & S James 13/10
Chelsea Best Price BetVictor 20/23

€10 fivefold - MU, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea & Liverpool yields

PP €129.94
Hills €126.13
Bet Victor €122.69

Rest:

Betfred €121.45
Stan James €121.39
Bluesq €119.18
Bet365 €118.75
Ladbrokes €116.59
Coral €116.59
Boyles €114.75
SkyBet €114.58

PP take over at the top, BetVictor fall to 3rd -Betfred & Stan James big movers up, SkyBet falls to last.