future in cattle

1chippy

where do you reckon the cattle prices will go after this year ?
would i be niaeve in saying with farmers off loading cows with calves, strong bulls and heifers, basically whatever they can.
Will these lads try to rebuild nos. next year just in case 2014 is a reference year.
with the animals going somewhere, would they be to lads that were understocked trying to stock and making the most of other lads that are selling low, or just the same boys buying more, factories or export?
Will a lot of lads avoid expansion after getting a bit of a hit this year.
was it all a complete bubble last year and this is the year to expect every year?
Basically how is things affecting everyone else right now.
Sorry if my questions arent articulated the best, it makes sense in my own head, just doesnt always come out right.

Manoffeeling

It's a hard one to call. But from what I hear, the shift will be towards area payment and do what ever you want. Lads have always been chasing quotas and targets for this and for that. Don't be surprised if its almost a reps style of farming on a per acre payment regardless of intensity level. I DON'T KNOW but this is what I think.

Mac Taylor

Hope so, have spent the last few years building up numbers slowly. I have sympathy for the guys who spent big money on cows/in-calf heifers on the basis of good weanling prices year in year out. This business is cyclical, last year was good, this year - Who knows

With the way the weather has been and grain prices on the up and up, the signals are not good but I'm staying optimistic:)

bob charles

I would be trying to farm outside the constraints of any SFP as from where I'm sitting it won't be worth drawing, if what we were told in the last year is any way true (max 200 a ha). its all going to be about technical efficiency and hopefully a shift away from slipper farmers getting handy money for doing little or nothing with the land and hopefully freeing up this land for the next generation. At the moment is there 30% of land in full production??

As regards cattle, efficiency will only mean one thing and that an increase in size. I have being preaching for good knows how long that this year 2012 will be a very dangerous year to be in farming as things aren't the best. Investment in some quarters has being way over the top.

I think if you have the ambition and know how its best to keep moving along increasing numbers slowly, if you move fast it can have disastrous effects on man and beast. hold off for as long as possible making big investment, and look after the soil and it will look after you

pakalasa

I saw really poor 4 month old friesan calves not even getting a bid yesterday in Ennis, not even at 130 Euro. I was wondering how many of these will hit the marts next October on a wet and miserable day like today.

reilig

bob charles wrote: »

I would be trying to farm outside the constraints of any SFP as from where I'm sitting it won't be worth drawing, if what we were told in the last year is any way true (max 200 a ha). its all going to be about technical efficiency and hopefully a shift away from slipper farmers getting handy money for doing little or nothing with the land and hopefully freeing up this land for the next generation. At the moment is there 30% of land in full production??

As regards cattle, efficiency will only mean one thing and that an increase in size. I have being preaching for good knows how long that this year 2012 will be a very dangerous year to be in farming as things aren't the best. Investment in some quarters has being way over the top.

I think if you have the ambition and know how its best to keep moving along increasing numbers slowly, if you move fast it can have disastrous effects on man and beast. hold off for as long as possible making big investment, and look after the soil and it will look after you

+1

The day of getting handy money for doing nothing needs to be history. Paying subsidies to lads who can claim them by keeping fields empty is a waste.

All the talk for the last few years has been about keeping farmers on the land, but if agriculture is to develop in this country in the future, farms will have to consolidate, the inefficient will have to give up or shape up. The current situation with payments promoted inefficiency. This has to change!

lalababa

I have reservations about cattle prices this back end. Looked up glanbia site and we have exported 40% less cattle in 2012 than 2011 esp. calfs!!:eek:

lalababa

apologies, I meant calves exported in 2011 were 88k and in 2012 35k, from bordbia site not glanbia!:rolleyes:

HillFarmer

I was looking to increase numbers for the last year but the prices were so high I didn't buy.

If weanling or in calf heifers are reasonable in October November I think i'll increase numbers.

I reckon prices will slip back the Autumn/Winter due to fodder mainly, but they'll bounce back in the Spring.

1chippy

Definately agree with the subs. dad has a reasonable sub on his, but my own are basically non existent. i base all the projections without subs but this year they definately will be needed.
Bob you seem to have a reasonable grasp on prices i know its a long way off but what way would you reckon the prices will go for the way next year.

bob charles

1chippy wrote: »

Bob you seem to have a reasonable grasp on prices i know its a long way off but what way would you reckon the prices will go for the way next year.

if I knew that I would be a very wealthy man, all my young heifers would have being sold 2 months ago. instead I only sold about 10%. considering I can't forecast 2 months my crystal ball aint much good. IMO beef price will be fairly level from todays price for the next year or so I would think, give or take 50c up/down from €4 a kilo for beef. concentrate on efficiencies as some guys in the beef business are not a the races even on the simple stuff. just something as small as proper herd health. One extra living animal at the end of the year will do more for most guys bottom line than cribbing about any of the beef factories.

Birdnuts

Saw on Bloomberg that cattle prices in the US are set to tumble, with a big increase in numbers going to factories in response to ongoing drought and the increasing price of feed. Not sure what that means for this side of the pond but it can't be good for prices later in the autumn:(