WWE Betting - Summerslam

Lord TSC

There was some interest last month with placing bets on WWE, and Paddy Power are taking bets on this Sunday's show. I know some people asked how it worked and what was the best way to approach it. Figured a few of us wrestling fans could discuss the bets in the hopes some people could follow us and make money on the show. Here's the odds...

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/sports-novelties/wwe

First off, I'll say I made profit off the last two shows on accumulators (not a lot; turned 3 quid into 9 both times).

The problem with this show though is that because it's a "bigger" show, as compared to the less important shows that followed, it's harder to call. There's what should happen in terms of results to further stories and get the right characters over, and what WWE wants to do; usually, if WWE feel something is too predicatble, they'll change at the last minute no matter how little sense it makes.

So, the main example of this would be the Dolph Ziggler vs Chris Jericho match; on paper, the point of this match is to get the younger Ziggler over with the crowds ahead of pushing him as a top guy for the company. Logically, Ziggler should get the clean win (hence why the odds are 1/4). On top of that, Jericho is heading off on tour with his band soon so could be wrote out on this show via a loss. Of course, WWE could just as easily put Jericho over and have him win just to be "unpredictable". Here, I'd say there's a 90% chance Ziggler wins, but that's where wrestling bets get dodgy; that 10% that's left over.

Likewise, Brock Lesnar should defeat HHH; Brock lost to John Cena in his last match, and in the process, WWE destroyed what credibility Brock had. The decision was widely panned. What WWE should do with this show is have Brock murder HHH in the hopes they can rehab him and move him on to a big money making feud with someone at Wrestlemania. But HHH is the bosses son-in-law and is a backstage politican, and it's quite possible that they will just feed HHH's ego and have Brock lose to HHH. And then there's the other option; have a DQ ending which sets up a rematch in the next few months. That last option is what I'd say is most likely to happen tbh, so I'll be going for a HHH win in this one (4/1)

Miz should go over Rey Mysterio. 4/6. No story to the match, Miz just won the title. This shouldn't be any problems, and to me, gives the safest bet right now.

Punk, having just turned bad guy, SHOULD retain his title, especially since they just teased he's facing Rock in a few months. Punk is 1/2. I'd rather a bet that Big Show will be the guy who takes the losing pinfall, and it's always dangerous to bet against Cena. But the next PPV is in Cena's home town, and it seems to make more sense that Punk retains here and heads to the next show as the bad guy to defend against the home town hero.

Don't know about Daniel Bryan vs Kane. Could go either way. Charlie Sheen has been teased to make some sort of appearance here, and could aid Kane in the win, so at a push, I'd say go Kane. 8/11. Bryan is a submission specialist, and Kane never taps out. It would destroy his character to do so.

The tag titles match still has to be added to the odds as well.

They usually let accumulators be done at the weekend, presumably once the odds stop fluctuating so much. I'll be doing two accumulators then; one based on what WWE should do logically....

Ziggler, Punk, Brock, Miz, Kane

....and one of what WWE will probably do....

Jericho, Cena, HHH, Miz, Kane.

But those thoughts could change as news of the show develops over the week, so I'd hold out betting till Sunday afternoon tbh.

callaway92

I didn't read the thread, just your picks.

There is not a hope Jericho is winning. Leaving after Summerslam. Ziggler has the briefcase. NOT A HOPE!! Smackdown spoilers tonight will tell all. Jericho will get the "upper hand" going into Sunday.

HHH is also in no way beating Lesnar. There is even less chance of that happening than Jericho beating Ziggler!!

I agree with Kane and Miz (but it wouldn't surprise me to see The Miz being turned over). They will give Kane the win to continue the story of D Bryan "losing his mind" imo.

WWE Title Match is tough to call, but I'd say CM Punk retains after Cena FU's Big Show. CM Punk throws him outta the ring and gets the W. Big Show is taken the fall wither way.

The only potential value I see in the matches available is Rey Mysterio @11/10, but I still won't be backing him.

You saying Jericho has a 10% chance of winning doesn't make his 5/2 good value at all man.

Lord TSC

To me, you can never said there's "Not a hope" of someone winning. There's been plenty of examples in recent times of people who should have won not winning. (See Cena vs Brock).

That said, I'm not saying my bets are foolproof. Just talking my thoughts out about some of them :P

callaway92

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

To me, you can never said there's "Not a hope" of someone winning. There's been plenty of examples in recent times of people who should have won not winning. (See Cena vs Brock).

That said, I'm not saying my bets are foolproof. Just talking my thoughts out about some of them :P

ah ya, but you know what I mean

Like saying "there is not a hope Ireland will beat Brazil". That kinda thing.

Lord TSC

The thing with Jericho and Ziggler though is they could do an ending where Jericho wins and then Ziggler attacks him and destroys him, giving Jericho his out for a few months. Wins and losses mean little in story. Thats what makes it hard to bet on...

marvin_spazz

think i saw a post here few weeks ago about someone who predicted most of the wwe results. was that you? also just had a look on the link to pp and it only takes singles which is a bit **** tbh.

i dont know fa about wwe now. i used watch a bit when it was wwf and bret hart was the man.

cant see any value in these 1/4 and 1/7 shots. im enough of a degen to place a bet if there is a bit of value :eek:

Lord TSC

Wasn't me. Think it might have been Ade. I engaged in the debate but there was someone doing better than I did on the bets :P

As for the single bets, I said above that PP tend not to take the accumulators till the day before the show for some reason. Come the weekend, they'll probably be up.

And yeah, you've really got to do the accumulators to get any real value out of it.

callaway92

Teamshadowclan wrote: »

The thing with Jericho and Ziggler though is they could do an ending where Jericho wins and then Ziggler attacks him and destroys him, giving Jericho his out for a few months. Wins and losses mean little in story. Thats what makes it hard to bet on...

Then in that case you shouldn't be betting on it.

Wompa1

I love pro wrestling but how in the hell can you bet on what's essentially a scripted television show

Lord TSC

Wompa1 wrote: »

I love pro wrestling but how in the hell can you bet on what's essentially a scripted television show

Its a novelty bet, same as a bet on any other TV show. And it would be a hell of a lot easier if the script didn't change every ten minutes between now and Sunday night...

The_Kew_Tour

The wrestlers do know who going to win before they get into ring though right?

If only you had inside info;);)

Lord TSC

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

The wrestlers do know who going to win before they get into ring though right?

Yeah, of course.

Accumulators now appear to be working.

HHH has dropped from 4/1 to evens :P

tinodz

I made the thread last time

I have had a bet on the last few PPVs (€10 accumulators), only lost one, and made about €200 on those 4 bets. What I did for those PPVs was to wait until the Sunday of the PPV, and whoever was the fave at that point - stick them all in an accumulator. At that point Paddy have usually have adjusted the odds, and usually seem to have the winners as faves (although in waiting so long, the odds are much lower, so you win less).

If you want to bet early (and try and get better odds), my ideas for the PPV is

• Brock to win (He has a short contract with WWE. He lost to Cena already, if he loses to HHH, then whoever it goes up against next is meaningless). He should win this.
• Punk to win(For the last few months, WWE TV have been talking about his long reign and should not want to end it now). They are already teasing a match with The Rock at Royal Rumble
• Miz to win (He just won the title. He made a movie before he won it, and WWE should want a title on him to promote the crap move)
• Ziggler to win (The main reason Jericho came back this time was to push some of the new talent. He should lose this to make Dolph look good). He band also has dates booked, so he should go away again for a few weeks/mpnths
• Bryan to win (He seems to be the best think they have going. They will not make him lose to Kane). They could - but they should not!
• Sheamus to win (They are forcefully trying to make him the next Cena (he is in a few American adverts for K-Mart and stuff). He should win this too.

This is around 8/1ish now, although Vince McManhon could change a lot before Sunday (The RAW rating was bad last Monday - and the last time that happened they dropped loads of stoylines they had going).

I personalty recommend waiting until Sunday (before 8PM - as PP close bets at that point), then picking the faves. Seeing as this won many times for me, I have no reason to try anything different.

Lord TSC

Bryan to win (He seems to be the best think they have going. They will not make him lose to Kane). They could - but they should not!

Thats the one I'd be most worried about tbh, and I've gone with Kane to win.

Bryan hasn't won a PPV match in AGES (about six months). He puts on great matches but rarely wins them. And from a creative point of view, a loss to Kane would continue his "Going Nuts" character....

callaway92

I can't see Bryan getting the win. 1st, as said above this post, they'll continue his "going crazy" character.

2nd, there is no way Kane would be made tap out.

marvin_spazz

tinodz wrote: »

I made the thread last time

I have had a bet on the last few PPVs (€10 accumulators), only lost one, and made about €200 on those 4 bets. What I did for those PPVs was to wait until the Sunday of the PPV, and whoever was the fave at that point - stick them all in an accumulator. At that point Paddy have usually have adjusted the odds, and usually seem to have the winners as faves (although in waiting so long, the odds are much lower, so you win less).

If you want to bet early (and try and get better odds), my ideas for the PPV is

• Brock to win (He has a short contract with WWE. He lost to Cena already, if he loses to HHH, then whoever it goes up against next is meaningless). He should win this.
• Punk to win(For the last few months, WWE TV have been talking about his long reign and should not want to end it now). They are already teasing a match with The Rock at Royal Rumble
• Miz to win (He just won the title. He made a movie before he won it, and WWE should want a title on him to promote the crap move)
• Ziggler to win (The main reason Jericho came back this time was to push some of the new talent. He should lose this to make Dolph look good). He band also has dates booked, so he should go away again for a few weeks/mpnths
• Bryan to win (He seems to be the best think they have going. They will not make him lose to Kane). They could - but they should not!
• Sheamus to win (They are forcefully trying to make him the next Cena (he is in a few American adverts for K-Mart and stuff). He should win this too.

This is around 8/1ish now, although Vince McManhon could change a lot before Sunday (The RAW rating was bad last Monday - and the last time that happened they dropped loads of stoylines they had going).

I personalty recommend waiting until Sunday (before 8PM - as PP close bets at that point), then picking the faves. Seeing as this won many times for me, I have no reason to try anything different.

im on for the craic :eek:

I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills; skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you loose me money I will look for you, I will find you, and I will kill you.

SirDelboy18

Heard a rumour that Cena might go over and build toward a match with Rock at RR, with Punk facing the winner at WM. That being said, Punk still seems like the most logical winner here. Yet, this match is the final match on the card, and with Cena, you never know.

Also Lesnar is supposed to dominantly go over Trips.

callaway92

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

Heard a rumour that Cena might go over and build toward a match with Rock at RR, with Punk facing the winner at WM. That being said, Punk still seems like the most logical winner here. Yet, this match is the final match on the card, and with Cena, you never know.

Also Lesnar is supposed to dominantly go over Trips.

I've heard 100 different variants of what might happen. Take rumours very very lightly in Wrestling. Scripts can potentially be changed up to right before they enter the ring.

I can't see them doing Cena vs Rock ever again. If so, Once In a Lifetime my arse.

Lord TSC

Yeah, the problem with rumors in wrestling is if you got to 100 different sites, you'll get 100 different "exclusive" stories.

callaway92

I won't bother betting on this, but here's my predictions anyway.

CM Punk
Kane
Rey Mysterio (after thinking about it, I see him getting the W)
O' Neill & Young
Lesnar
Sheamus
Ziggler

Nuri Sahin

This PPV is a lot tougher to call than the previous ones that PP have offered betting on.

Already have twenty on HHH @ 4/1 from early last week, amazing how much his odds are been cut since! Reasoning was HHH's ego :pac: I wouldn't be surprised if this finished as a no contest or something similar.

The Jericho v Ziggler storyline is similar to that of Show v Rhodes at Wrestlemania so its worth a bet on Jericho I feel. It's set up for Jericho to finally win the 'big one'. Thirty on Jericho @ 11/8 . Wouldn't surprise me to see Dolph cash in Money In The Bank briefcase later on in the night.

tinodz

Betting is closed now, but I was watching it until it closed, and these were the faves

Brock (shortened significantly in the past 2 days)
Punk (was always short, never really changed)
Miz (shortened a little bit just before betting closed)
Ziggler (kept the same all week)
Bryan (Kane drifted in this one more tan Bryan shortened)
Sheamus (Was really short all week never changed)

I jumped the gun a bit, and bet earlier in the week (and got some decent odds on people like Brock), although my bets were still on those that turned out the faves, so I am confident based on previous PPVs

Even if it is a loss tonight, WWE will drop back into been predictable on the next PPV :P

tinodz

Brock won
Punk won
Miz won
Ziggler lost
Bryan won
Sheamus won

Accumulator lost overall (5 out 6 ain't bad though :P). I guess they are going to continue the Ziggler/Jericho story - but I really did not see that win coming

callaway92

callaway92 wrote: »

WWE Title Match is tough to call, but I'd say CM Punk retains after Cena FU's Big Show. CM Punk throws him outta the ring and gets the W. Big Show is taken the fall wither way.

My predictions weren't good for the event, but pretty satisfied with this one

I decided correctly in not betting on SS luckily

A Primal Nut

callaway92 wrote: »

There is not a hope Jericho is winning. Leaving after Summerslam. Ziggler has the briefcase. NOT A HOPE!! Smackdown spoilers tonight will tell all. Jericho will get the "upper hand" going into Sunday.

Not making fun of you or anything, but it just goes to show you can never predict these matches with certainty. WWE are more about the show that's going on next than worrying about the next month or two months. In this case they went with the unpredictable option as they must have thought it would be the most exciting! Other than that, the card was fairly predictable, but with these WWE accumulators there is always going to be one or two matches which don't go the way you expect - the same as real sports!

callaway92

A Primal Nut wrote: »

Not making fun of you or anything, but it just goes to show you can never predict these matches with certainty. WWE are more about the show that's going on next than worrying about the next month or two months. In this case they went with the unpredictable option as they must have thought it would be the most exciting! Other than that, the card was fairly predictable, but with these WWE accumulators there is always going to be one or two matches which don't go the way you expect - the same as real sports!

I did mention in the post below it, that it was just a figure of speech.

tinodz

A Primal Nut wrote: »

Not making fun of you or anything, but it just goes to show you can never predict these matches with certainty. WWE are more about the show that's going on next than worrying about the next month or two months. In this case they went with the unpredictable option as they must have thought it would be the most exciting! Other than that, the card was fairly predictable, but with these WWE accumulators there is always going to be one or two matches which don't go the way you expect - the same as real sports!

It is close to predictable though.

For the last 5 PPVs (since I started betting on this). Paddy Power has let people bet on 24 separate matches (in only 3 of those matches the favourite on PPs site has lost). Based on the last 5 PPV, all favourites have won 3 out of 5 times in those PPVs

Based on the odds, of doing accumulators on the faves for those PPV, I am already around €200 up on €10 bets (which were around a 9/1, a 6/1 and a 7/1), which seems great overall.

I will be in again for Night of Champions anyway - with the fave accum bet.

Lord TSC

callaway92 wrote: »

There is not a hope Jericho is winning. Leaving after Summerslam. Ziggler has the briefcase. NOT A HOPE!!

:P

I knew Jericho was winning when they kept talking about how he never won the big one. The commentators may as well have just said he was winning it.

3/5 ain't bad. Next month's should be easier to make profit on.