Lock and population statistics

CIARAN_BOYLE

Please note that the majority of people will only find the bolded bits interesting

A friend of mine asked me today how many potential locks leave secondary school each year (while bemoaning the recent shortage of locks within the Leinster academy)

Since I have no way of determining the number of athletes amoung these people I decided to restrict my self to discovering the number of students leaving secondary school each year that are (or could grow to) 6"6 (1.98m) or taller IE what may be the minimum height for an international lock.

Since I found it difficult to find some sources for northern ireland this is mainly restricted to the Republic

Using various sources that I found online
57,000 people leave secondary school each year (or at least take the LC)
Ratio of boys to girls born in this country is 1.07 which means 29,500 would leave secondary school each year

Height is normally distributed
Average Height in Ireland 1.775 meters (5"10)
Standard deviation of height in Ireland 0.063 meters
That is 3.2 standard deviations from the mean.
The Z score which relate to this figure 0.0007

Therefore if you multiply the number of males leaving school each year by the z score you would get the number of males leaving school each year above 6"6


Approximately 20.6 people taller than 6"6 or 1.98 meters leave school each year in the republic of Ireland.

Quint2010

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Please note that the majority of people will only find the bolded bits interesting

A friend of mine asked me today how many potential locks leave secondary school each year (while bemoaning the recent shortage of locks within the Leinster academy)

Since I have no way of determining the number of athletes amoung these people I decided to restrict my self to discovering the number of students leaving secondary school each year that are (or could grow to) 6"6 (1.98m) or taller IE what may be the minimum height for an international lock.

Since I found it difficult to find some sources for northern ireland this is mainly restricted to the Republic

Using various sources that I found online
57,000 people leave secondary school each year (or at least take the LC)
Ratio of boys to girls born in this country is 1.07 which means 29,500 would leave secondary school each year

Height is normally distributed
Average Height in Ireland 1.775 meters (5"10)
Standard deviation of height in Ireland 0.063 meters
That is 3.2 standard deviations from the mean.
The Z score which relate to this figure 0.0007

Therefore if you multiply the number of males leaving school each year by the z score you would get the number of males leaving school each year above 6"6


Approximately 20.6 people taller than 6"6 or 1.98 meters leave school each year in the republic of Ireland.

Is that it? Wow-well I can only guess alot more grow to that height after they leave.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Quint2010 wrote: »

Is that it? Wow-well I can only guess alot more grow to that height after they leave.

sorry height reffered to in the post was meant to be the height that people max out at

Fireball07

Quint2010 wrote: »

Is that it? Wow-well I can only guess alot more grow to that height after they leave.

Some would do, I guess.



The whole thing is quite interesting, it's something I never really thought about. And now that I think about it...I was one of the tallest people in my school when I left and I'm around 6'3. And even thinking back, I can't remember anyone that would have been that height.

I went to a small school, admittedly...and 20/21 seems like a very very small number but it could be accurate. Although after studying statistics...a lot of those things have a fairly large margin of error.

Cpt_Blackbeard

Most interestingly. That data would also indicate that there are 20 lads doings their leaving certificate every year who are 5"2 or under.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Fireball07 wrote: »

Some would do, I guess.



The whole thing is quite interesting, it's something I never really thought about. And now that I think about it...I was one of the tallest people in my school when I left and I'm around 6'3. And even thinking back, I can't remember anyone that would have been that height.

I went to a small school, admittedly...and 20/21 seems like a very very small number but it could be accurate. Although after studying statistics...a lot of those things have a fairly large margin of error.

Definitely true. Lets take the standard deviation I found. If it was for example 2cm higher then the final figure would have gone up by a factor of 12.

There is discussion that general population height is rising slightly each year the averages that I found for population height relate to the population as a whole rather than the new generation.

Plenty of things could be out. I just found it interesting.

Cpt_Blackbeard wrote: »

Most interestingly. That data would also indicate that there are 20 lads doings their leaving certificate every year who are 5"2 or under.

There was one of those in my school the year after me

jacothelad

I'd imagine the stats are just the same for N.I. school leavers. So chuck in another 8 or so. Ulster Rugby ran a programme at U.U.J. to attract 6'5" and over guys who might be interested. I don't know how it panned out. Didn't leinster then do something similar? Perhaps we should start rugby scholarships among the tall guys in schools in Scandanavia and Netherlands.

DeDoc

I think that is a significant underestimate Ciaran - the standard deviation is probably significantly higher than that. When I was leaving school there were 3 or 4 guys in my year who were 6'5" plus. That is from a cohort of about 100. That might have been unusual, but that was 25 years ago and I'd be surprised if todays generation aren't a little taller.

My guess is that there'd be something more like 100 guys that size in any given year

ray jay

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

There is discussion that general population height is rising slightly each year the averages that I found for population height relate to the population as a whole rather than the new generation.

I think this point invalidates the figure you arrived at. Younger people are definitely taller on average than their parents, who are taller than their grandparents. Part of it is down to better nutrition over the years and part of it to old people shrinking a little. My father was 6'1 when he was younger but is a flat 6' now. As you said, even 2cm makes a huge difference to the number who hit 6'6.

I'm sure there must be a source out there with a breakdown of average heights by age if we really need a precise figure!

stephen_n

is 5"10 still the average height I would have thought that would have increased over the last 10-15 years judging by the height of kids you see now.

CIARAN_BOYLE

stephen_n wrote: »

is 5"10 still the average height I would have thought that would have increased over the last 10-15 years judging by the height of kids you see now.

dunno the study I found on height was a few years out of date.

ray jay wrote: »

I'm sure there must be a source out there with a breakdown of average heights by age if we really need a precise figure!

If there is I couldn't find it.

phog

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Approximately 20.6 people taller than 6"6 or 1.98 meters leave school each year in the republic of Ireland.

According to the Census 2011, the breakdown of the 20.6 people would be:

Province Population % of Pop 6'6"
Leinster 2,501,208 54.6% 11.2
Munster 1,243,726 27.1% 5.6
Connacht 542,039 11.8% 2.4
National 4,581,269 100.0% 20.6


How did the Leinster Route 66 go?

RoundBox11

Interesting thread. I have to say tho, it's definitely more than 20 per year.

The reason i'd say this is because up until i was about 18, my main sport was basketball and playing in the East Leinster club leagues there would have been loads of lads around that height. Given that they all wouldve been my age and mostly my leaving cert year too. So i'd say it must be closer to 50 - 70 per year.

Even outside my basketball friends i knew/know at least 4 or 5 lads who were 6'5" - 6'8", although not all wouldve been in my year bracket

My knowledge of statistics has been wiped clear from my mind over the past few years so i don't fully understand the calculations.

I haven't heard anything about the "route 6'6" that leainster run last year. A friend of mine tried to enter but missed the deadline i think.

Podge_irl

Its way more then 20. The stats are completely skewed by older people who are generally much shorter due to worse childhood diets until comparatively recently.

profitius

Theres a few very tall lads in every school, especially these days. I reckon the amount of people 6ft 5 or over would be closer to 200 per year than 20.

Fight_Night

In my school year there was 3 people over 6'6''. I know in all the other local schools there was at least 1 person over 6'6''. I'd find it hard to believe only 20 per year in all of Ireland, has to be closer to a few hundred.