Thursday 9th August

rossom

‎7.15 Sandown

Educate 33/1 NAP

Ishmail Mohammed's 3 year old is the biggest monkey in the world and if you look at his last two starts you'll see exactly what I mean but I think he is clearly a very talented horse and if his trainer has rectified his quirks in the past 20 days then I think he could go extremely well at a massive price. Regardless of what happens tomorrow, if Educate is ever gelded then I'm going to be all over him as it should definitely settled him down a huge amount. However, after clearly showing signs of significant inexperience in his 4 starts to date I'm hoping his precocious nature will have hopefully settled down. This colt made his debut over tomorrow's C+D less than 2 months ago on soft ground at Sandown when running a very eye catching 7th. After being posted out wide, he was outpaced slightly before getting the hang of things in the home straight. He tried to make a forward move but on at least 3 occasions his path was blocked and he clearly had an absolute ton left in the tank as he came home in nearly a walk to be beaten by only 8L. That looks a pretty good maiden with the top 3 rated 90, 85 and 83. However, he made no mistake on his next start as he got off the mark in style.

12 days after his debut Educate was again campaigned over 10f this time on good to firm ground at Yarmouth where he ran out a ready an impressive winner. After sitting just behind the pace, he travelled into the race extremely well and when asked to quicken and go and win his race he hung a bit and again showed he was still very green. He eventually responded to O'Shea's urgings and he readily drew clear in impressive fashion to score by an easy 6L. The form of that race doesn't look too bad with the 2nd finishing a neck beaten 2nd on a handicap after this. Regardless of the form, he definitely won like a horse with considerable talent.

His last two starts are where his quirks have come to the fore and its clearly a major concern tomorrow but I think that is factored into his price tag. He made his handicap debut off a mark of 82 at Newmarket Class 3 event on heavy ground on the 14th of July. After settling towards the rear, he was rather keen for the first 4 or so furlongs and he was still clearly a bit green. Turning into the long home straight, Educate made some eye catching progress on the bridle and when Tadhg O'Shea started to get at him under hands and heels he was making progress better than anything. Then the whip came out and Educate lost the plot. He veered left and right multiple times back and forth and he ended up throwing his chance away. He was eased in the final furlong but despite all this he still managed to finish only an 8L beaten 5th in what I think looks a decent handicap, although much of the form hasn't been tested. A week later he came back to the same Newmarket course and it was no surprise to see a visor applied for the first time. Under Jack Doyle, Educate was settled in the rear of the 6 runner field and he seemed to settle much better. With about 3f to go, Doyle angled Educate out and he began to make progress before Doyle brought the whip through into his left hand. As soon at that happened, it appeared as if Educate was spooked and he hung violently to the left. Knowing his chance to win were gone, Doyle stop exerting maximum pressure and after all of this he was only beaten by 4L in what again looks a decent handicap. The winner Prussian and the 4th Prophesy home both ran very good races as Glorious Goodwood to give depth to the race.

In his 20 days off the track, I really hope Mohammed has worked tirelessly to remove the quirks of this recalcitrant character as its preventing him from reaching his full ability. It could easily be a case of him being afraid of the whip but he seems a rather wound up individual. The visor remains on him and hopefully he's garnished enough experience to allow him to race straight under maximum urgings. Ismail Mohammed is a new enough trainer to UK shores but he had great success in his native Dubai including training the winner of the UAE Derby and 1,000 Guineas so he clearly is a talented trainer. He's only had runners in the UK since May and from his 42 runners to date his only winner has indeed been educate so it seems as if he finding his feet. However, his last 2 horses have finished 2nd so it seems as if he is getting the hang of things. Although Ahmed Ajtebi is having his first ride in the UK for Mohammed, he is a very eye catching booking in my eyes given that the pair regularly teamed up in the past to success in Dubai. Tomorrow's favourite Royal Empire could easily turn out to be a Group horse given his impressive debut performance but I've got to take him on on his turf debut off a mark of 90 at is current price. Although significant risks are clearly attached to him, I think he's got a much better chance than his current 33/1 quoting and if putting his best foot forward I envisage him running a massive race off 81 which should hopefully see him return to the winners enclosure. If not, I can see his balls being chopped off very soon

rossom

3.10 Haydock

Compton 7/1

I'll try keep this short enough. Only a small bet but I think Ralph Beckett's 2nd string is vastly overpriced as he was a horse that I rated quite highly last year. He won very impressively on debut at Windsor last July over 6f in a race whose form is working out very well. The 2nd, 4th and 5th are rated 98, 97 and 100 respectively. On his 2nd start he came a decisively beaten 3rd behind a horse who I really liked last year but seems to have gone backwards in Rebellious Guest. Nevertheless, the 3rd Mehdi has finished a 1L beaten 3rd in a Group 3 and the form is again strong. On his 3rd start, he ran an excellent 2L beaten 3rd in the Listed 2 Year Old Trophy at Ripon and the 4th Roger Sez has won a Group 3 impressively subsequently so the form of that race is again strong. With his first 3 starts being over 6f, Compton was stepped up to 7f at Kempton in a Conditions stakes and I'm convinced something went wrong that day as he dropped out of contention extremely quickly.Before his debut as a 3 year old and his seasonal reappearance on the back of a 281 day break he was gelded before making his handicap debut at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Stakes before running an absolute belter off a mark of 92 to finish 4th of 29 when upped to a mile for the first time. The form of that race is obviously top notch and it was an extremely likeable effort. His last start came at Newmarket on heavy ground where he was absolutely punted off the boards before the off as his price collapsed for 10s into 9/2. I was pretty surprised with the gamble as I wasn't sure how the bottomless ground would suit and the conditions coupled with pulling quite hard saw him finish tamely and well adrift of the pace. He returns to a sounder surface today and given how well he was backed the last day clearly indicates that connections think he is clearly on a good mark. Richard Kingscote takes the ride and he has a good strike rate with the bang in form Beckett yard. Eased in grade, I think the sounder surface will suit much better than the testing conditions he last encountered and I expect him to go very close to landing this contest.

rossom

6.25 Leopardstown

Along Came Casey 12/1 NB

Dermot Weld's 4 year old filly went straight into my notebook as horse to watch at Galway but for one reason or another she didn't appear at the festival and I think she'll be out to gain victory today instead. She made her debut last June and was the standard Dermot Weld targeted horse at Galway as she made her handicap debut at the festival in a mile handicap off a mark of 67. Sent off the 6/4 favourite, early on in the race I think she clipped heels and after watching the video countless times I have no idea how she stayed up. Given there was obviously a fair few funds riding on her, Pat Smullen tried to get her to win and he only found Cash Or Casualty, who had kicked off the front around the turn, too good as she was eating up the ground late on but she could only finish 2nd. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that she would have won easily if it weren't for her early race mishap but she showed a tremendously likeable attitude to recover from adversity to post such a good effort. She received compensation for this very unlucky defeat a couple of weeks later when landing a 9f maiden at Gowran Park in facile fashion. Under hands and heels riding, she readily hit the front and had so much left in the tank as she deservedly shed her maiden tag at the 5th time of asking. The form of that race isn't bad with the 3 who finished with any proximity to her all rated in the mid 70s but it was an extremely impressive performance.

Along Came Casey's final start as a 3 year old came at Navan in a valuable 10f handicap last October where she was sent off the 4/1 favourite in the 18 runner field on soft going off a mark of 86. I don't know whether or not it was a case of she couldn't quicken on the ground, she picked up an injury or she was fatigued but she didn't put in the best of efforts as she finished in midfield. However, I'm going to chalk that effort off as there is not too much point in looking into it in greater detail. However, I definitely think it is worth noting that between her last 2 starts as a 3 year old her ownership changed from Ronald Schor to Mrs C L Weld who I presume is the trainers mother and unless Schor wanted to get rid of a horse that just won then I think it tells you quite a bit about what they think of this horse. Looking through Mrs Weld's other horses, she tends to only have good horses such as double Group 3 winning Grace O'Malley run in her colours which I'm drawing a positive from.

This filly made her seasonal reappearance on the back of an 8 month break at Naas over a mile off a mark of 82 and she was an eye catcher in my eyes as I thought it was definitely a pipe opener and she would definitely come on an awful lot for the run. Under apprentice Shane Gorey, she was given an easy time of things as she came home a 5L beaten 6th. The form of that race has a nice look to it with the winner Boom To Bust and the 4th Cheval Rouge (who reopposes tomorrow on 6lb worse terms) winning on their next starts whilst the 2nd, 5th and 7th all ran pretty good races at the Galway Festival. Pat Smullen takes over in the saddle again tomorrow for this competitive looking fillies handicap over 9f and her mark of 82 has remained static. On the basis of all of her runs, I certainly think her current mark shouldn't be beyond her and her Group 3 entry for later this month would certainly suggest to me that connections feel the same. Although she'll have to concede weight to some improving 3 year olds, I certainly think she's on more than a feasible handicap mark and I expect a big showing from her tomorrow. 12/1 is definitely an e/w price but I'm confident she can land this prize.

the groutch

think it might be a trying day for Barney Curley's Giant Sequoia (5:30 Yarmouth). running off 11lb lower than his last flat win (albeit in 2009).

Pinesky

[Sandown

Educate 33/1 NAP[/B]

I envisage him running a massive race off 81 which should hopefully see him return to the winners enclosure. If not, I can see his balls being chopped off very soon[/Quote]

Not a pretty picture
I'm really rooting for him now

rossom

3.50 Brighton

Filun 33/1

With the ground drying out all the time, I think Anthony Middleton's 7 year old looks vastly overpriced at 33/1. After a problem with Ulcers, Filun really came to fruition when landing a C+D event in fantastic style at the end of April last year when sauntering to victory off a mark of 48. He was clearly very well handicapped after overcoming his issues and he subsequently ran out an impressive winner when he was raised 8lb for winning on his next start at Lingfield 20 days later. Filun continued his rapid rise by landing a hat trick 8 days later, this time off a mark of 62, as he again ran out a very impressive winner over C+D. In the 3 runner event, Filun travelled extremely well before quickening up decisively in the final furlong to score by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd twice in August and she is now rated 11lb higher than she was when playing second fiddle to Filun.

After this, Filun was raised by 9lb and ran a very respectable 3L beaten 3rd off a mark of 71 at Salisbury at what has become his standard 12f trip. Once again, he travelled extremely powerfully into the race and just couldn't pick up when asked in the final furlong. The form of that race is strong with the winner Danvilla winning off an 8lb higher mark subsequently and he is now 12lb higher. Furthermore, the 4th Eshtyaaq ran 3 excellent 2nds on his next 3 starts and is now rated 8lb higher than that day. After this Filun was given a 1lb hike in the weights from the handicapper and he again put in another excellent performance when going down by 1L at the end of June at Epsom. He travelled in his usual ominous way and jockey Liam Keniry waited as long as he could before he played him but the winner made all that day and he just couldn't pick him up. The form of that race isn't anything of note but it was still an encouraging effort. On his last start last year he ran a shocker at Epsom and considering he was absent for a long period after I'm willing to ignore that effort.

Filun's first start this year came at Windsor after an 8 month break and he clearly needed that run. He travelled pretty strongly until about 2f out but found absolutely nothing when asked for an effort. His 2nd start this year came over todays track and trip off a mark of 70 when he came an excellent 2L beaten 2nd. He travelled into the race extremely impressively and looked the winner all over. After trading 1.07 in running, he just couldn't get past the very game front running St Ignatius. That winner has boosted the form significantly by winning his next two starts and it was a rather useful performance. Filun's last 2 starts have also come at Brighton but he's been disappointing in both. The first came 9 days after his excellent 2nd and the only explanation I have is that he just had an off day. His last start was on unsuitably soft ground so I think you can excuse it.

He returns to Brighton off a mark of 68 and he clearly loves it round here, with a record of 3311245. He's clearly on a good mark based on his last win and place efforts and the drying ground conditions should hopefully prove ideal come race time. William Twiston Davies is a very encouraging jockey booking as his 7lb claim allows him to race off an effective mark of 61 which makes him look very well handicapped. I think its also worth noting that if using all of his allowance Twiston Davies will be getting down to 8-6 which is 1lb below his lowest weight of the past 12 months. He may have no issue getting down to this weight but I thought it was worth pointing out and its also his first ride for the trainer. Anthony Middleton hasn't had a winner in 11 months but that isn't a huge concern to me given that he went 13 months before Filun rattled up a hat trick last year. Moreover, Filun has already run well once this year so he isn't completely out of form. Although he's got to bounce back from a couple of poor runs, he looks madly overpriced given his record at the track. On a good weight, if Willie Twiston-Davies can play him right he could go very close to landing this competitive event.

It is definitely worth noting that he often travels into his races, looks like he can't lose before not finding much of the bridle. I'd definitely recommend laying off your stake if he gets very short in running.

Ray Mond

Get on hannon/Hughes treble at Brighton , emell, varnish, forgive

Pinesky

3.50 Brighton

Filun 33/1

Ground definitely softer than good winner came up stand side rail

3ndahalfof6

rossom wrote: »

6.25 Leopardstown

Along Came Casey 12/1 NB

Dermot Weld's 4 year old filly went straight into my notebook as horse to watch at Galway but for one reason or another she didn't appear at the festival and I think she'll be out to gain victory today instead. She made her debut last June and was the standard Dermot Weld targeted horse at Galway as she made her handicap debut at the festival in a mile handicap off a mark of 67. Sent off the 6/4 favourite, early on in the race I think she clipped heels and after watching the video countless times I have no idea how she stayed up. Given there was obviously a fair few funds riding on her, Pat Smullen tried to get her to win and he only found Cash Or Casualty, who had kicked off the front around the turn, too good as she was eating up the ground late on but she could only finish 2nd. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that she would have won easily if it weren't for her early race mishap but she showed a tremendously likeable attitude to recover from adversity to post such a good effort. She received compensation for this very unlucky defeat a couple of weeks later when landing a 9f maiden at Gowran Park in facile fashion. Under hands and heels riding, she readily hit the front and had so much left in the tank as she deservedly shed her maiden tag at the 5th time of asking. The form of that race isn't bad with the 3 who finished with any proximity to her all rated in the mid 70s but it was an extremely impressive performance.

Along Came Casey's final start as a 3 year old came at Navan in a valuable 10f handicap last October where she was sent off the 4/1 favourite in the 18 runner field on soft going off a mark of 86. I don't know whether or not it was a case of she couldn't quicken on the ground, she picked up an injury or she was fatigued but she didn't put in the best of efforts as she finished in midfield. However, I'm going to chalk that effort off as there is not too much point in looking into it in greater detail. However, I definitely think it is worth noting that between her last 2 starts as a 3 year old her ownership changed from Ronald Schor to Mrs C L Weld who I presume is the trainers mother and unless Schor wanted to get rid of a horse that just won then I think it tells you quite a bit about what they think of this horse. Looking through Mrs Weld's other horses, she tends to only have good horses such as double Group 3 winning Grace O'Malley run in her colours which I'm drawing a positive from.

This filly made her seasonal reappearance on the back of an 8 month break at Naas over a mile off a mark of 82 and she was an eye catcher in my eyes as I thought it was definitely a pipe opener and she would definitely come on an awful lot for the run. Under apprentice Shane Gorey, she was given an easy time of things as she came home a 5L beaten 6th. The form of that race has a nice look to it with the winner Boom To Bust and the 4th Cheval Rouge (who reopposes tomorrow on 6lb worse terms) winning on their next starts whilst the 2nd, 5th and 7th all ran pretty good races at the Galway Festival. Pat Smullen takes over in the saddle again tomorrow for this competitive looking fillies handicap over 9f and her mark of 82 has remained static. On the basis of all of her runs, I certainly think her current mark shouldn't be beyond her and her Group 3 entry for later this month would certainly suggest to me that connections feel the same. Although she'll have to concede weight to some improving 3 year olds, I certainly think she's on more than a feasible handicap mark and I expect a big showing from her tomorrow. 12/1 is definitely an e/w price but I'm confident she can land this prize.

11/2 @ the moment

rossom

Thats annoying with Along Came Casey. Hope she's ok

Gautama

rossom wrote: »

6.25 Leopardstown

Along Came Casey 12/1 NB

What does NB stand for anyway?

Gringo180

Gautama wrote: »

What does NB stand for anyway?

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