Archie's NFL/NCAA Tips 2012

JaMarcus Hustle

With the first preseason game taking place tomorrow night, now is as good a time as any to set this up for it's third year

What it says on the tin, will be posting what I think has a good shot at winning in my favoured doubles system. As most American Football spreads clock in around the 10/11 or 20/21 odds mark, this "system" (I use that phrase lightly) means that I only need 1 double to win out of of every 3 placed to make a profit. In that regard, I'll mostly be posting in multiples of 3 doubles, although that will vary depending on the week's games. Bets will be between 0.5 and 5 points, with 5 representing maximum confidence.

Too soon to post up bets for the opening week, so instead I'll go with a few ante-post season bets (so the doubles thing doesn't apply here).

(Disclaimer - as this is a tips thread rather than a log, I'll post the bookies that have the most attractive odds rather than the bookie I actually use. Having said that, I always use Bet365 as it's rare you'll find better odds elsewhere for American Football).

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Regular Season Wins - Wisconsin Over 9 - 4 pts @ evens (Bet365)

Wisconsin had one of finest balances of potent offence and mean defence last year, ranking 6th in the nation in terms of points scored (44 per game) and 13th in terms of points against (19 per game). That offensive record was largely due to the holy trinity of Russell Wilson (QB), Montee Ball (RB) and Nick Toon (WR). Ball is the only member of that trinity returning this year, so Wisconsin will lean heavily on him this year - and with a staggering 1,800 rushing yards and 32 TDs last year - that's not such a bad thing. Ball is the most dominant running back in the country, and is allowed to do the things he does thanks to a Wisconsin programme that are up there with USC, Iowa etc. in their record of consistently producing top class linemen, such as the returning Travis Frederick. Replacing Wilson at QB is Maryland transfer Danny O'Brien who, despite not possessing Wilson's athleticism and x-factor, is still a big coup for the Badgers and has the skill and experience to guide the Badgers to a similar record. John Abbrederis also returns at wide receiver after an impressive junior season last year that saw him perform at an almost identical level to Nick Toon, with added impact in the return game. On defence, Wisconsin have lost a lot on the defensive line, but they have always been a linebacker university and that is where their strength is again this year. For me not to at least get my stake back, Wisconsin will have to lose three games this season. Looking at their schedule, I just dont see 3 teams who can outscore them. The key games are Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State. Fortunately, the tougher two games (Michigan State and Ohio State) are in Wisconsin, and that Penn State game won't be as tough given recent developments. Wisconsin should be favourites for every game they play this year with maybe the exception of Michigan State (and even then, that one is hugely debateable). I'd be very surprised if they lose more than 1 game, and fully expect Danny O'Brien and Montee Ball to take Wisconsin bowling again this year.

Regular Season Wins - USC Over 10.5 - 5 pts @ 11/10 (Bet365)

Call it bias, but I don't see a single loss on USC's schedule this year. 1 loss would be a disappointing season, 2 would be catastrophic but it's just so hard to see happening. The Trojans have assembled what is, at least on paper, the most explosive offence college football has ever seen. Matt Barkley returns for his senior season as the Heisman Trophy favourite. Barkley has improved on all his statistics each season at USC, and it should also be noted that last year he threw for more yards, more touchdowns, less interceptions and a higher completion % than a certain Andrew Luck. A big part of that is the supporting cast on offence. Robert Woods and Marqise Lee combined for a mind-boggling 2,400 yards and 26 touchdowns last year, and their high-school team mate George Farmer should see more game time this year having been the top-rated WR recruit last year. With the best Quarterback and Wide Receivers in the country, Lane Kiffin went out and acquired one of the best Running Backs in acquiring Penn State's Silas Redd. With a reputation for constantly producing top-class linemen, the loss of Matt Kalil should not be as huge as it sounds. Put it simply, this USC offence has the potential to shatter records. On defence, Nick Perry (NFL) and Devon Kennard (Torn Pectoral) will be big losses, but Wes Horton and junior-college stud Morgan Breslin can get to the quarterback and should fill in. Hayes Pullard looks like the latest in a long line of elite USC linebackers after a very impressive Freshman year, and TJ McDonald returns at safety despite being projected as a first round NFL draft pick. Nickell Robey is one of the best cornerbacks in the nation - his shutdown of Michael Floyd last year launching him into the spotlight. As far as the schedule goes, the only real threats are Washington and Oregon. I don't believe Stanford are a threat anymore - they lost an awful lot of talent to the NFL this year. Oregon will obviously be the big game, but having beaten them in their prime on their own turf last year, USC will be the favourites in Pasadena this time round. As for Washington, it's the token game on the schedule that you think USC should win but that could go wayward. Still, the Trojans should have too much for Keith Price and co. Imo, USC go undefeated this year and we get the dream matchup vs LSU in the National Championship.

Regular Season Wins - Notre Dame Under 8.5 - 5 pts @ 5/9 (Bet365)

We should be really jumping on the Notre Dame bandwagon with them coming to our shores next month, but lets be honest - they have an absolutely horrendous schedule this year. In road games at USC and at Oklahoma, you have two instant losses that can immediately be written off their schedule - there is absolutely no question about that. Then they would only have to lose 2 more games to win this bet - and a ridiculous 5 week stretch vs Michigan State, Michigan, Stanford, Miami and BYU should see to that. The Irish's problems are well documented - they just don't have a reliable QB. I expect Andrew Hendrix to start in Dublin with Everett Golson eventually taking over. And while he is an exciting prospect, his zero game time will mean a bedding-in period and this is not the schedule that you want to be bedding in a QB. This is also made trickier following the loss of Michael Floyd to the NFL, although Tyler Eifert is not a bad consolation as as QB security blanket. Boston College on the road could also be a tricky game. Frankly, I think this bet is safe as houses. The schedule is just brutal - the most difficult I've ever seen.

Regular Season Wins - LSU Over 10 - 5 pts @ 10/17 (Bet365)

LSU's 2011 was so close to being the greatest ever. 8 of their 12 wins were against top 26 ranked teams. Look at the sides they beat in the regular season - #3 Oregon (won by 13), #16 West Virginia (won by 26 on the road), #17 Florida (won by 36), #20 Auburn (won by 35), #2 Alabama (won by 3 on the road in the biggest regular season game ever), #3 Arkansas (won by 24) and #16 Georgia (won by 32). That's just ridiculous, and the most frightening prospect is that they will be even better this year. LSU are on defence what USC are on offence. Tyrann Mathieu, Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo are all Heisman Contenders - defenders should not be preseason Heisman contenders so that tells you just how dominant this defence is. There are only 2 games that LSU could fathomably lose on their schedule this year - Alabama and Arkansas. They have home advantage over Alabama and have not lost anywhere near as much talent to the NFL a the Crimson Tide have so LSU will be favourites. And Arkansas lost by 24 at home last year, what chance do they have travelling to Baton Rouge? If you ask me, LSU are also going undefeated this year - setting up the most anticipated college football game of all time vs USC in the National Championship. As far as this bet goes, there is no way in hell LSU lose 2 games.

Will post up my NFL ante-post selections later on tonight

P_1

Going to be my first outing with the football betting, I usually go on rugby handicaps. Just looking over the spreads for the 1st week of preseason, there's a lot of +/- 1.5, 2.5 going about, now football matches aren't usually that tight. Is there any reason behind that?

JaMarcus Hustle

pithater1 wrote: »

Going to be my first outing with the football betting, I usually go on rugby handicaps. Just looking over the spreads for the 1st week of preseason, there's a lot of +/- 1.5, 2.5 going about, now football matches aren't usually that tight. Is there any reason behind that?

Logic of spread betting in football is if two teams are evenly matched, then the home team will be -3. So if the home team are -2 for example, the bookies think that the away team is 1 point better than them. Low spreads = game could go either way. As with all gambles, all about proving the bookies wrong But you'd be surprised how many games are decided by a 3/4 points or less. 22 games in the first 4 weeks last season were decided by 4 points or less.

P_1

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

Logic of spread betting in football is if two teams are evenly matched, then the home team will be -3. So if the home team are -2 for example, the bookies think that the away team is 1 point better than them. Low spreads = game could go either way. As with all gambles, all about proving the bookies wrong But you'd be surprised how many games are decided by a 3/4 points or less. 22 games in the first 4 weeks last season were decided by 4 points or less.

I get you. That makes sense, what is the easiest market to guage? I presume there is no such thing as alternative handicap betting in Football like there is in the Rugby.

JaMarcus Hustle

pithater1 wrote: »

I get you. That makes sense, what is the easiest market to guage? I presume there is no such thing as alternative handicap betting in Football like there is in the Rugby.

There sure is, although not all sites offer it. Bet365 do, and Im pretty sure PaddyPower do too (although their odds are not as great). Majority of my profit last year came from college football, there's a nice bit of money to be made if you know what you're doing in that regard. I think if you know how to spot match-up advantages (keeping on top of team news of course) then you'll do well. Some of the college spreads can move by as much as 2 points between Monday and Saturday - get in on the right side early and you'll always have an advantage.

JaMarcus Hustle

Regular Season Wins - Jacksonville Jaguars Under 5.5 - 5 pts @ 4/5 (BetFred)

Look at the teams that all finished under 5.5 wins last season, and then look at their quarterbacks. Indianapolis (Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky), Minnesota (Christian Ponder, Joe Webb), St Louis (AJ Feeley, Kellen Clemens, an injured Sam Bradford), Cleveland (Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace), Washington Redskins (Rex Grossman, John Beck), Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman) and Jacksonville (Blaine Gabbert). Freeman aside (Freeman was not to blame for what happened in Tampa Bay) that's not just a collection of mediocre, that's a collection of just bad at football. Suffice to say, good quarterbacks do not allow their teams to finish with so few wins. If there's anything we learned from the 2011, it's that Blaine Gabbert is not a good quarterback. He's scared - no - he's absolutely terrified of a pass rush. He ran a spread offence in college so had plenty of time to get rid of the ball when needed - that's not the case with a pro style offence in Jacksonville who don't have a great offensive line. Chad Henne will eventually start, but that's only because he doesn't have to beat out Matt Moore to a starting spot this year - that's a criticism in itself. I don't believe Justin Blackmon is the type of receiver who can help a struggling Quarterback. For that, you want a Larry Fitzgerald or a Calvin Johnson - receivers who have athletic ability to bail out a quarterback. Blackmon doesn't have that ability. I think he'll be a star in the NFL but that's on the assumption that he gets a competent quarterback throwing to him. The star player is of course Maurice Jones-Drew, but he's holding out and Jacksonville's owner can't even be bothered to meet with him. Look what happened Chris Johnson after his training camp hold out. On defence, the Jaguars are good, but they're certainly not good enough to contain high scoring offences like Green Bay, Detroit, New England or Houston (twice) (all on the schedule this year). Neither do they have the impressive offence/defence balance that Chicago, Cincinnatti or Buffalo. It's also hard to see them getting wins over the Jets, Titans (twice) or a cross country trek to Oakland. That would leave them with winnable games against Indianapolis (twice), Miami and Minnesota - and three of those are road games. Let's just say I'll be shocked if Jacksonville aren't picking 1st overall in the draft next year - and that doesn't happen with more than 5.5 wins. I genuinely believe the Jags will be very lucky to get 2/3 wins this year.

Regular Season Wins - Cleveland Browns Under 5.5 - 5 pts @ 4/6 (Bet365)

Cleveland are another team who, to put it nicely, aren't very good. Their schedule is also pretty appalling. In their own division, they have Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati all twice a year - that's daunting, but let's be nice and give them a hugely optimistic 2 wins there - and believe me, that is optimistic. They lost all 6 of those games last year. Then they also have the Eagles, the Super Bowl winning Giants, the Chargers, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, the Bills and the Broncos. I'll remain generous and give them 1 win. Again, this is being optimistic. The rest of the teams are Oakland, Washington and Indianapolis. They will only be favourites in one of those - Indy - and even at that, it's still a road game. But I'm being generous here, so I'll give them a glass half full scenario (more like glass overflowing, but anyway) of 2 more wins. So even when with Mother Teresa-like generosity, that's only 5 wins which is enough for this bet to win. They have only one play maker on offence, and he has never played in the NFL before. Their quarterback is a 29 year old system player from a dubious college conference who also happens to be a rookie. They have sporadic talent on defence, one of whom is out for the year in Phil Taylor. You really have to feel sorry for guys like Joe Haden and Joe Thomas who are the only elite players on this team. 4 wins and I'll eat my hat. Over 5.5 and I'll wear a Browns jersey in public.

P_1

Good call, Cards v Saints tonight in Dayton, any thoughts, have to favour the Saints despite all that has happened over the summer, Cards were pretty poor last year and can't see them improving.

I see Paddy has set the Saints a target of 19 points, my gut is that overs is the way to go for this one?

JaMarcus Hustle

You'd think so, but only 3 out of the last 10 teams in the HOF game have scored more than 19 points, and 2 of those were very close (Titans with 21 in 2009 and Steelers with 20 in 2007). Only the Redskins in 2008 have comfortably beat it (30).

The Saints are generally a high scoring preseason team, but the last time they were in a Hall of Fame game, they lost 20-7. Brees only attempted 6 passes that day, and interim head coach Joe Vitt says he'll use a similar rotation at QB this time round. I also get the impression that as defensive-minded co-ordinator (former defensive backs coach and current linebacker coach) that he will be focusing more on the defence tonight (and in preseason in general) than offence, especially with Vilma suspended for the season. New DC Spagnuolo will also want to get more snaps out of his starters to get used to his system. So it's hard to know what to expect, some factors cancel out others.

I'm not betting tonight, but if I was, I'd ignore any overs/unders (both game and team-specific) and instead put a small 1/2 point wager on Saints money line (I wouldn't bother with the spread). I only consider 2 things in preseason - (i) strength of depth, and (ii) mentality, with a big lean on the latter. The Saints have better strength in depth, especially at the skill positions which tend to shine most in preseason. And despite what's gone on this summer, they'll be better mentaly for this game as they'll want to galvanise the franchise and put up a strong display. I'd hazard a rough guess at Saints (17-20) Cardinals (13-14) but won't be betting.

At the end of the day, excluding 1 or 2 teams, preseason is a toss up. Anything can happen. I like to point out that the Patriots went 0-4 in preseason before going on to record a 16-0 regular season. Likewise, the Lions went 4-0 in preseason before bottoming out with an 0-16 regular season.

P_1

Good point, todays target has been met thanks to the GAA and the football, that will do for today.

JaMarcus Hustle

Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 @ Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings -4.5
5 pts @ 2.64/1 (Bet365)

I liked this spread before today, but word has it that Joe Haden - Cleveland's best defensive player - has failed a drugs test and will miss the opening 4 games. Any hope Cleveland had this year rested on a slightly above average defence, but for this game it looks they could be missing Haden, Phil Taylor Scott Fujita and Ahtyba Rubin. There's also rumblings that Trent Richardson might need another knee surgery. Cleveland don't have the offence to stay within 2 scores of Philadelphia, and now they don't have the defence to either. This spread should move big time over the next 24-48 hours.
As for the Vikings, this is more betting on Jacksonville to lose rather than it is Minnesota to win (same thing, but you know what Im getting at). The Jaguars are really bad and Maurice Jones Drew is still holding out. We all know how Gabbert crumbles under pressure, so what on earth is he going to do when he sees 22-sack Jared Allen gunning for him? The 4.5 spread says that the Vikings are only 1.5 better than Jacksonville. I say they're at least 2 field goals better.

JaMarcus Hustle

Small bet on tonights preseason games.

Washington Redskins -2.5 @ Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens +1 @ Atlanta Falcons
2 pts @ 2.72/1 (Bet365)

Wont do huge write-ups for preseason games, but I just prefer the depth on the away teams and most importantly, the home teams tend not to care too much about preseason. Washington figure to put out their starters for longer than usual as RG3 gets used to the offence too.

stingerro

King is Back! As well as my favourite topic

JaMarcus Hustle

College football is back This week's fancies:

4 Units on Boise State @ Michigan State (-6.5) at 20/23 (PaddyPower)

Boise State, everyone's favourite underdog, play a ranked BCS team on opening weekend for the 4th year in a row. They covered the spread as favourites the previous three years, but I would be shocked if they did this time as underdogs for a number of reasons. Firstly and most importantly, Boise State have lost more players than any other team in the country. Star QB? Gone. Star RB? Gone. Star WR? Gone. It's not much better on the other side of the ball either. On defence, 9 of last year's top 10 tacklers are gone, including standout playmakers Shea McClellin, Billy Winn and George Iloka. Secondly, those 3 previous ranked openers were all on hallowed home blue turf. Not this time, as they face a very tough road game away to Michigan State who happen to have one of the best defences in the country. Trend wise, Boise were 5-8 against the spread last year, and they haven't been a road underdog since 2008. Michigan State meanwhile were an impressive 10-4 against the spread in 2011, going 4-2 when favoured at home. They are also 6-2 against the spread when at home to a ranked team since 2007. Bottom line, don't let the Kellen Moore era cloud your thoughts too much. This is completely new territory for an inexperienced Boise team on the road to a far superior opponent.

3 Units on Michigan vs Alabama (-14) at Evens (PaddyPower)

A high octane offence with an exciting playmaker going up against a defensively stout SEC powerhouse on neutral soil on the opening weekend - this is almost a carbon copy of Oregon/LSU last year. Yes, Alabama have lost a lot of starters, but this is an elite program who roll out replacements of high quality year in, year out. As sure as water is wet, Alabama produce fantastic football players. I can see where the Michigan love comes from - Denard Robinson is an exciting playmaker. But not against Alabama he's not. Remember, back in 2010, Cam Newton was the nation's hot shot rushing QB. But against Alabama, he was held to a mere 39 yards off of 22 carries (1.8 yards per carry). He did all his damage through the air, something Denard Robinson has not shown himself capable of doing thus far in his Michigan career. His passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD:Interception ratio all took a nosedive last year. Nick Saban's defence can shut him down on the ground safe in the knowledge that he does not have the talent to punish Alabama aerially. Above all else, this is a game that should be easily won by Alabama in the trenches. Their linemen are far superior on both sides of the ball, and I especially like Trent Richardson's replacement in Eddie Lacy to put up big numbers against a defensive line that struggled against decent RBs last year. Also keep in mind that Alabama QB AJ McCarron comes into this season full of confidence having been that National Championship Game MVP last year. I expect Michigan to get disheartened early, and Alabama to stomp the life out of them in the 3rd and 4th quarters running up a big double digit win. For the record, Alabama are 5-0 against the spread on neutral ground over the past 3 years, and are 13-5 against the spread against Non-Conference opponents over the last 4.

2 Units on Miami (Ohio) @ Ohio State (-22.5) at 5/6 (PaddyPower)

The Urban Meyer era begins at Ohio State, and what better way to ring in the new regime than by racking up the score in front of your own fans against an in-state rival of sorts? I don't expect them to have much trouble with a cocky Meyer and a hugely talented Braxton Miller a year older (who Meyer cannot stop gushing over). Again, I have to go with a far superior home favourite with a strong defence. As home favourites last year, Ohio State covered the spread every single time (8-0) and are 12-2 against the spread as home favourites since 2010.

2 Units on San Diego State @ Washington (-14) at 5/6 (Bet365)

San Diego State have lost their 3 best players from last year (QB Ryan Lindley, RB Ronnie Hillman and LB Miles Burris). It will be a big ask for them to travel to Washington and keep up with the Keith Price-led Huskies. Price had an impressive year, throwing 33 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions, with the whole nation taking notice of his breakout performance in the Alamo Bowl vs Baylor (438 passing yards, 7 total TDs). He helped Washington to a 3-1 against the spread record as home favourites last year. I liken this to San Diego State travelling to Michigan last year as 10 points underdogs. A dynamic QB put them to the sword that time as they lost by 21. I would expect the same this time round against Keith Price.

1.5 Units on Marshall @ West Virginia (-24.5) at 10/11 (Bet365)

USC aside, West Virginia could well have the most explosive offence in the country. Geno Smith at QB is a fantastic NFL prospect, a leading Heisman contender and a statistical monster. This is in part thanks to two ridiculous weapons in Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin at his disposal. At home last year, Smith passed for an average of 364 yards per game. Overall, his 31 touchdowns and 7 interceptions was one of the best ratios in the nation. Bailey and Austin combined for a whopping 2400 receiving yards and 20 TDs last year, which will probably increase this year which is downright scary. WV beat Marshall by 21 last year - I'd be surprised if they couldn't tack on another score this year given (a) the improvement they'll see on offence and (b) Marshall losing some key players on defence.

JaMarcus Hustle

1 final NCAA bet to add.

1 Unit on Colorado State vs Colorado (-6.5) at 10/11 (Bet365)

Neither of these teams are great, but they meet every year and Colorado have covered the spread 4 of the last 5 meetings. Last year, there was a similar spread (-7) and Colorado doubled it, winning by14. They faced a lot of tougher opposition last year as new member of the Pac 12, which should better the program in the long run. To be honest, this isn't a bet where there are loads of statistics and trends to back it up, it's just a case of one team being better than the other. Colorado State lost their last 8 games in a row to close out 2011. Their offensive line is one of the worst in the country - so bad in fact, that it would have been a reason why 2011 QB Pete Thomas jumped ship and transferred to NC State. They have a new head coach who has a lot of work to do (New QB, New HC + New Schemes = A lot of adapting to do) and intriguingly enough they have also lost both kickers Ben De Line and Chad Van Der Molen. Losing kickers is never the end of the world, but both these guys could kick 40+ yard field goals - a luxury in college football, so that bodes well for betting purposes. Colorado on the other hand return 4 of 5 starters on a quietly impressive offensive line. They can afford to go all out against their in-state rivals with only FCS calibre opponents in Sacramento State the following week.

Eire-Dearg

Oh how I've missed you sweet college football and sweet college football gambling!

JaMarcus Hustle

Week 1: 3-3

Week 2 as follows in order of preference. Wish I wasn't too tired to do write ups.

NFL

5***** Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs defence decimated by injuries, and Atlanta are legit this year.
3*** San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers -5 Rodgers at home against an over-rated 49ers side. Rude awakening.
3*** St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions -7.5 Detroit are the Oregon of the NFL. No way the Rams keep up with them on the road.
2** Buffalo Bills +3 @ New York Jets Jets to get booed off the field at the final whistle - book it.

NCAA

4**** USC -26 vs Syracuse USC won last week and still dropped down to #2. As if Lane Kiffin needs an excuse to run up the score here.
3*** Nebraska -5 @ UCLA Taylor Martinez finally putting his game together and looking like an elite college QB.
3*** Texas Tech -19 @ Texas State Seth Doege to finally be the Heisman candidate he was once expected to be, TT won by 40 last year.
2** Fresno State @ Oregon -35 Oregon are Oregon. They score by the bucketful. Could be covered at half time.

Close but no cigar was UCF +18.5 and Louisiana Tech -3.

JaMarcus Hustle

Well last week was horrible. 2-4 is never good. Oh well, onwards and upwards. Or downwards. Most likely downwards.

NCAA

5***** Virginia Tech (-10) @ Pittsburgh
3*** Utah State @ Wisconsin (Under 51)
3*** Notre Dame @ Michigan State (-5.5)
2** Tennessee (-3) vs Florida
1* California @ Ohio State (-16.5)

NFL

3*** Houston Texans (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

JaMarcus Hustle

Another horrid week. I'm abandoning betting on instinct and team news. Going solely on strong trends this week, just to test something out. Also no more betting on heavy road favourites.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 @ Dallas Cowboys
Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ Washington Redskins

Clemson +14 @ Florida State
Michigan +6 @ Notre Dame

CriticEyes

Are you finished with your tips Archie? Anything for the NFL on Sunday on Monday night game?

JaMarcus Hustle

Hey CE, I had a poor enough start and stopped any pattern betting. I ended up booking an impromptu trip to Peru in March too, so am putting the pennies towards that rather than the bookies

I still have the occasional flutter, no more than 20 euro each weekend usually. This weekend it's Packers -6.5, Eagles +3.5 and Saints -3.5.