Saturday 21st July

rossom

8.45 Lingfield

Buzkashi 14/1 NB

Really like the look of David Lanigan's 3 year old who I think could run a massive race tomorrow. Previously with Roger Varian, this 3 year old moved to the excellent David Lanigan stable before making her handicap debut off a mark of 74 back in May and I think she looks a rather well handicapped animal. Buzkashi made her debut last July in what turned out to be a useful looking maiden as he finished a 2L beaten 3rd at Newmarket's July course over the 7f trip. Sitting close enough to the pace, Buzkashi got slightly outpaced before looking a bit green when asked to quicken on as she stayed on towards the finish and it was a very promising debut in my eyes. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Fallen For You going down by only 0.5L in a Group 2 on her next start and she is a very talented animal for the John Gosden team. The 2nd Rhytmic was a very impressive 3.75L winner on her next start which solidifies the form.

On her next start, Buzkashi was upped to 1m and sent off favourite in a similar event at Leicester. After occupying a sit just behind the leaders, Buzkashi was angled off the rail to make her challenge when she clipped heels and stumbled very badly with the horse in front of her and she was lucky not to go down. After that, she was given an easy time of things by jockey Neil Callan as she went down by just under 4L. She hadn't been asked anything at that stage and whether she would have won is a mystery but she certainly would have gone close. The winner that day My Queenie was officially rated 93 before that contest after getting beaten 1.75L in her previous start in a Group 3 and for Buzkashi to go off favourite says a lot about how she was fancied prior to that race. My Queenie has proved to be a very solid performer in the high 80s since and it was clearly a strong race. Moreover the 4th Saytara, who was a debutant that day, won on her only subsequent beating Dulkashe by 1L and that rival has since won off 77 so the form of that race stacks up well.

On her final 2 year old start, Buzkashi ran in the Tatersalls Million 2YO Fillies Trophy and I think it again demonstrates that connections hold her in high regard. After getting rather wound up in the prelims beforehand, she was given a sympathetic ride by Steve Drowne when he knew her chance was gone. In truth she was probably outclassed that day, but the 7f trip and her getting fractious prior to the race starting certainly wouldn't have aided her cause. Her last start came a couple of months ago on the back of a 7 month break in a first time hood. On her debut for Lanigan and indeed her handicap debut, she was stepped up to 1m1f for the first time at Sandown where she finished a 10.5L beaten 5th. However, I think her performance was much better than the bare result and I thought it was a rather likeable effort. Under today's jockey Ted Durcan, Buzkashi was settled way off the pace towards the back of the field and it was clear turning in she way too far back. Although she wouldn't have had a chance with the winner regardless, Buzkashi certainly would have finished much closer if she sat closer to the pace. Nevertheless, she stayed on rather eye catchingly through beaten horses under hands and heels riding and she certainly looked as if she wasn't the finished article yet as she was running a bit all over the place before the penny dropped late on. The form of that race looks very useful considering it was a Class 5 event with the wide margin winner Miss Cato running a very good 2nd behind Great Heavens in a Listed contest who subsequently romped to a Group 2 victory. On top of this, Miss Cato actually ran a very good 4th in a Group 1 over in the states earlier this month. Looking at Buzkashi's last race in more detail, the 2nd won well upped in Class off a 3lb higher mark on her only subsequent start whilst the 4th and 6th have also run well since.

Tomorrow she makes her AW debut at Lingfield and is upped to 1m2f which is a huge plus in my eyes. I definitely think she is going to be a middle distance horse in the future and I see her stepping up to 1m4f in the near future. She should definitely come on along for her reappearance run and I think that she will be racing a little closer to the pace tonight as the race got away from her on her last start. Her handicap mark of 74 remains unchanged and I definitely think that she is more than capable of winning off her current mark and I think she has a lot of progression left. The three at the head of the market currently are all unexposed and could just prove to be too well handicapped but Buzkashi is unexposed herself with only 4 starts to date and her 14/1 price certainly massively understates her chances. She represents David Lanigan's only runner at the track tomorrow night and its very encouraging that he has a 28% strike rate with his 3 year old. Ted Durcan and Lanigan's jockey of choice comes here for only ride also from Newmarket so I think it looks rather significant. With a good draw in stall 5 that should Durcan to settle her where he wants, I think she's going to run a very big race tomorrow night with the hood left off and if sharper for her reappearance I think she could be a major force to be reckoned with.

MoscowFlyer

With the ground drying out all the time surely St Nicholas Abbey has to be the bet of the day tomorrow? 7/2 in some places as well! All over it.

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

With the ground drying out all the time surely St Nicholas Abbey has to be the bet of the day tomorrow? 7/2 in some places as well! All over it.

The magic sign Ladbrokes have been the shortest price all week on him. Clearly don't want to lay any money on him due to their link with Ballydoyle so I think that says he has a massive chance.

Colonel Sanders

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

With the ground drying out all the time surely St Nicholas Abbey has to be the bet of the day tomorrow? 7/2 in some places as well! All over it.

5.0 on Betfair, it'll surely be there with bookies.

With some paying 1/4 the odds each way it'd unlock a tasty place price

Harry Angstrom

Does anyone think St Nicholas Abbey is a better horse going left-handed? He's won two Coronation Cups, a Breeders' Cup and an Ormonde going that way, as well as a very decent 2nd to Cirrus Des Aigles at Meydan. His record going right-handed is very patchy.

jobeenfitz

Had a look at that leicester race online. Think its worth an e.w. bet. thanks Rossom.

newuser89

I have a really good feeling for highland colori in the big handicap at ascot
Drawn 1 and after watching yesterday's race were ladyship and street power both came from that side and pulled clear of the rest I think it's a advantage
I have backed Highland colori in all his races this season and 1 thing I notice is when he gets to the front he just does enough
He's a progressive horse against some more exposed types and I would be surprised if he isn't placed at least off such a low weight
16/1 at the moment
What you think of the horse rossom

Colonel Sanders

4/1 St Nic with Hills & Powers, both 1/5 the odds. Bet365 will surely price match & are 1/4 the odds

racso1975

Buzkashi down to 8/1 now!!!

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

4/1 St Nic with Hills & Powers, both 1/5 the odds. Bet365 will surely price match & are 1/4 the odds

9/2 with Betfred

MoscowFlyer

9/2 with Bet365 now as well

rossom

3.55 Ascot

Ducal 40/1 NAP

Ducal's chances all hinge on his ability to transfer his all weather form to the turf but if he does I think he could be a really big player in this extremely competitive handicap. . Ducal is rapidly improving 4 year old who has made a very bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. He has been the model of consistency in his handicapping career, winning 3 of his 9 starts in this sphere. Moreover, he has never been beaten by more than 2.25L in these 9 starts so he always runs a good race and should definitely give you a very good run for your money. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25L and the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner scoring off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland subsequently winning off a 7lb higher mark.

Off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success at Kempton on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 3 month break. Under the handling of todays jockey John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and he proved it on is next start. Up 5lb for that victory, Ducal put in an extremely game performance to win off his revised mark of 80. After hitting the front about 2f out, he showed gritty determination to hold off all challengers on both sides to score by 0.5L. In a race where he looked like he was always holding his rivals, the form has worked out very well. The 3rd Haamaat scored impressively on his next start off a 2lb higher mark before running a very decent race in a Listed contest and the 5th won off a 1lb lower after this.

3 starts ago Ducal was a rather unlucky loser in my eyes. Off a mark of 83 he was a step slow leaving the stalls and as a result had to settle for a position in the rear of the field. After being angled out wide, Ducal took a while to get fully motoring (which is normal) and he was never closer than at the finish when he was beaten by only half a length. 2 starts back Ducal was again a rather unlucky loser as he got beaten by a short head. From a wide berth in stall 13, Ducal broke quickly under Pat Dobbs who tacked over to sit just behind the leaders in 4th. Turning into the straight, Dobbs was sat there with a double handful and Ducal still travelled powerfully with about 2f to go. When asked to quicken, Ducal did so very nicely as he hit the front with just over 1f to go. However, he definitely got lonely out in front and it wasn't before eventual winner My Son Max got up alongside before Ducal rallied as he went down in a photograph.

Upped 3lb for this to a mark of 86, Ducal made amends to win in good fashion at Lingfield last month in a Class 2 handicap. That day he travelled wide and once again travelled extremely powerfully as Fahy kicked him to the front with just over 1f to go and he soon scampered about 3L clear and put the contest to bed. Although he only ended up winning by a neck, I think the combination of Fahy easing off him and idling out in front made the winning distance a little bit closer than it could have been but it was a very impressive performance. The form of that race looks strong with the 4th Sacrosantus winning off a 1lb lower mark on his next start whilst most of the horses in behind have been holding their form well enough without winning. The handicapper has risen him to a mark of 90 and I certainly think he is more than capable of scoring off his current mark given his upwardly mobile nature.

This represents by far his toughest test to date of yet and this 29 runner handicap is about as competitive as you can get. Ducal has gotten into the race towards the bottom of the handicap and has a lovely racing weight of 8-1. As stated, Ducals chances all hinge on whether or not he can translate his excellent all weather for to the turf but that is clearly factored into the price. After the first race, I'm not as happy with his draw in stall 8 as I was last night as it seemed as though the higher numbers would benefit but if a group converge down the middle I don't foresee it being a massive problem. Once again John Fahy takes the ride and he and Ducal get on very well and have forged a very good partnership so far. With a strong pace guaranteed, this will definitely suit Ducal given how he travels and I think that he will be played late if still in contention at the finish. Trainer Mike Murphy is having a very good season with his small string and Ducal has certainly thrived under his tutelage. A horse that is clearly still progressing, I think Ducal could run a massive race if taking to the turf and I think he could definitely play a leading role at the finish at a price that could be made to look silly in an hours time.

rossom

7.00 Haydock

Livias Dream 5/1

Rather like the look of Ed Walker's 3 year old who I put up when making a successful handicap debut in impressive style after a 9 month break. Her two year old debut came over 7f at Doncaster last July when she put in an eye catching 2L beaten 3rd. After breaking tardily, she looked outpaced for a lot of the journey before the penny dropped late on as she finished to very good effect and it was a very promising debut. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Dance The Rain subsequently finishing a head beaten 2nd off a mark of 81 whilst the 2nd Ghost Protocol is now an 88 rated animal. Her 2nd start came one month later at Folkestone again over 7f as she finished a not knocked about 6L beaten 5th. Once again she seemed outpaced as she had to be pushed along from about half way before making some decent enough headway under largely hands and heels riding. That race significantly suited those who raced on the pace with the first 4 home occupying those positions for the entire race. I really don't think the track suited her at all and I think she did very well to finish as close as she did. The form of that race isn't up to much but considering she wasn't hardly knocked about over a trip that is clearly on the sharp side it was still an encouraging effort. Her final 2 year old start came when upped to 1m at Nottingham but Ed Walker has stated on his site that she picked up an injury so I am going to ignore that effort.

She landed a bit of a gamble on her handicap debut off a mark of 68 when upped to 10f for the first time under a tremendous ride by William Buick at Windsor. After being settled 2nd last, she had to be scrubbed along for the final 4 furlongs of the race and after running around a bit and still looking a bit green she got the hang of things as Buick delivered her down the wide outside and she got up inside the final furlong to win by a comfortable enough neck with the front two coming 3L clear of the field. The form of that race took a big boost with the 2nd Bernisdale winning on his next start off the same mark. She's been upped 6lb to a mark of 74 but I don't think this mark is beyond her. With only 4 starts to date, she's unexposed and she definitely relished the step up in trip which she gets again today. With Buick riding at Ascot, Chris Catlin takes the ride and he'll have to be at his best today as she looked a tricky enough ride on her last start. I definitely think she'll have come on an awful lot for that run and I foresee another big showing tonight. Although soft ground is a bit of an unknown, I don't think she'll have a problem handling it and with her trainer still in good form I think she could prove very difficult to beat at a rather generous 5/1

rossom

Ducal's future will be on the AW

ft9

Who ya fancy for the big one rossom?

rossom

ft9 wrote: »

Who ya fancy for the big one rossom?

Too tight to call so no bet for me

newuser89

Highland colori was on the bad side as it turned out
And was in the lead going in the the final furlong until no extra at the finish
Finished 5th so was placed in certain bookmakers
And one to keep on the right side of I think when drawn better

tcite

Carlton House struggled badly today coming 4th. Went off 4/7.

The horse has never once impressed me if truth be told.

racso1975

racso1975 wrote: »

Buzkashi down to 8/1 now!!!

back out to 16's hopefully 20's then romps home

and back down to 8's should of lumped at 16's

racso1975

4th possibly left it way to late

rossom

racso1975 wrote: »

4th possibly left it way to late

Buzkashi definitely needs stepping up in trip.