Thursday 12th July

rossom

3.25 Warwick Masked Dance 8/1 represents my NAP tomorrow. Rather sweet on this ones chances and write up to come later.

rossom

3.25 Warwick

Masked Dance 8/1 NAP

Rather sweet on the chances of Scott Dixon's 5 year old who I think could prove very difficult to beat today. Although he's got to jump back from two bad runs (excuses can be made for both), he'll relish the return to testing conditions and is now only 1lb higher than when scoring in a higher grade 3 starts back as he very interestingly returns to a Warwick where he was successful on his sole start at the track back in 2010. He represents a trainer who is bang in form whose last two runners have won and its rather interesting Dixon sends Masked Dance as his sole representative to a track where he has never had a runner before and which represents a 4 hour round trip for connections. Formerly progressive for Kevin Ryan reaching a handicap peak of 92, Masked Dance joined Dandy Nicholls last year and had one start for him back in November last year. After this, he joined the newly established Scott Dixon yard as did many of Dandy Nicholls horses given one of his primary owners Paul Dixon moved many of his horses to his brothers yard and after a couple of reappearance runs after a 5 month break Masked Dance got off the mark for his new trainer.

In his first two starts for his new yard, Masked Dance was pretty awful being beaten by 24L on both occasions but I'm putting that down to a combination of getting his handicap mark to fall (7lb in to runs) and also to get him fully race fit. On his 3rd start for the yard and his 3rd last start Masked Dance was a rather well backed winner at Ascot over 6f on soft ground in a Class 3 event in May off a mark of 83. In the 5 runner field, Masked Dance under the hands of Tom Queally sat just on the quarters of Chilli Green for the first 3 furlongs before getting slightly pushed along from about half way. This 5 year old gelding responded well to Queally's urgings and after receiving two firm cracks with the whip he drew alongside before a further two brought him to the lead. From here on in, I think Queally had quite a bit of horse left under him as he was pushed out hands and heels to record a 0.75L victory. Although its often dangerous taking the form of 5 runner events too literally, I think the fact that the first two home made the running and seemed to go a decent clip allows the form of this race to merit the bare figures and as such I have assessed it in that way. The form of the race looks rather strong with the runner up Chilli Green scoring off the same mark upped to a Class 2 on his next start and it was a really likeable performance by Masked Dance.

After this race, Masked Dance was raised to a mark of 85 as he contested a Class 3 handicap at Thirsk 8 days after his victory. He was slightly disappointing that day as he finished an 5L beaten 8th but it wasn't too bad an effort on good to soft ground and it may have come slightly too quickly after his previous run. Moreover, it appears it was a pretty hot contest with the 2nd and 3rd winning subsequently whilst the winner and 5th have been a head and short head beaten 2nd subsequently off the same or higher marks so in hindsight it wasn't really too bad an effort. His last start I'm completely ignoring a month ago at Nottingham in a Class 2 event as the good ground was clearly too quick for him (subsequently a non runner on similar ground) as he came home last.

Todays race represents a much easier assignment as he drops back into a Class 4 on ground heavy ground that shouldn't be a problem to him at all. He's only 1lb higher than scoring 3 runs back in a higher grade so I think 8s looks a huge price given it was only such a short time ago that he was last successful. He won for Kevin Ryan off a mark of 87 last July so judged on this and his last win I really don't see any reason why he won't be up to defying a mark of 84. I think its very significant that he returns to a track where he has been successful before, especially as its the yard first venture to this track. Mirco Demuro, who is 1-1 for the yard after riding their last runner Sacrosantus, takes the reigns today and he interestingly comes to Warwick for one ride before heading off to Epsom later tonight. I think its going to be interesting to see what tactics the yard use as he could try and make all (did so over 7f in his success at the track) or Demuro could sit just behind We Have A Dream and try and kick off the home bend. Either way Demuro is an excellent rider, especially from the front, and I think he'll be able to get him to land this contest regardless of which tactics are adopted. I think its very intersting Masked Dance is due to run in the Stewards Cup Handicap at Hamilton on Saturday and surely if connections feel he's good enough to be contesting a race of that nature then he should really be up to winning a contest of this nature.

I think Scott Dixon could have a good day tomorrow as I think his two other runners at Doncaster Sir Geoffrey 6/1 and Dr Red Eye 3/1 have excellent chances and I've played all three in doubles and trebles.

dchris

Think Warwick is abandoned

rossom

4.40 Newmarket

Quality Art 40/1 NB

Extremely interesting contender who I think looks massively overpriced at 40/1 despite the ground being a concern. Formerly with Gary Moore, this 4 year old has now moved the in form Richard Guest team for 15,000gns recently and I think he has a major chance if recapturing his old form. After 3 solid efforts in his juvenile campaign, Quality Art really flourished as a 3 year old and looked extremely progressive until he went off the boil in has 3 starts. In his first 5 starts as a 3 year old, he posted 3 wins and a narrowly beaten 2nd and his handicap mark rose quickly from an initial 72 to a mark of 90 and its not hard to see why. After winning a maiden, he ran a very good 2nd on his handicap debut when finishing a 0.75L beaten 2nd. The winner looks a progressive horse winning off a 7lb higher mark subsequently and Quality Art lost nothing in defeat. After this Quality Art notched up two wins, the first a very impressive 4L success at Kempton in a race that has worked out really well. The 2nd Swiss Dream, who was rated 80 that day, has since won off a mark of 99 and the 3rd has won off an 8lb higher mark as well.

Quality Art was risen 10lb to a mark of 85 but showed no signs of stopping as he ran out an impressive 1L winner at Windsor. Under the guidance of Ryan Moore, he made all and Quality Art seemed to have a bit left in the tank as he went on to score. The 2nd Stlye and Panache won off the same mark two starts later and again nothing seems wrong with that form. Upped to a Class 3 off a mark of 90, Quality Art again ran a very solid race when finishing a 2L beaten 4th over todays C+D On the good to soft ground, he set a very fast early pace and he faded late on. The form of that race is fine with the winner winning off 2lb subsequently, the 2nd Ballista has won off a 1lb lower mark and the 3rd Coeus won on his next start off the same mark. His final 3 starts as a 3 year old were poor (he was eased when beaten 3 times) and he may have just gone off the boil a little bit.

Quality Art makes his debut for Richard Guest off a mark of 86 and he'll have to overcome an 297 day break if he wants to get back to winning ways here. The break is an unknown, with the longest absence being 105 days before today but he ran a very good 2nd that day so I certainly think he's able to go well fresh enough. I think he looks potentially well handicapped off just 1lb above his last winning mark and if you discount his last 3 efforts he'd definitely be a much shorter price.J-P Guillambert takes the ride for the first time which represents his only engagement of the day but he has a good record with Richard Guest which looks positive. The draw in stall 10 will allow him to come either side or down the middle if needs be as he will adopt his traditional front running style. Although the ground is a big concern, he is just too big not to back at 40/1 and if the change of scenery has worked the oracle I think Quality Art could prove an extremely live prospect and although its not a race to get heavily invested in I can see him running a big race. Its also interesting to note he's been pulled on his first two engagements this season so hopefully connections would have taken him out if the ground was unsuitable.

sonnky

great write up as usual rossom.. I see your name is roto over on racecaller aswel..

Imhof Tank

You have surely done a deal with the devil Rossom

Another 9/1 winner bolts up - Sir Geoffry

Markgc

Is Racecaller any good? Any good tipsters to follow on it? Also any other good forums/site of interest? Thanks

sonnky

Markgc wrote: »

Is Racecaller any good? Any good tipsters to follow on it? Also any other good forums/site of interest? Thanks

It's not bad, for Irish racing Shanto is good enough for long odds winners I think, don't really go on it that often but certainly should!