Monday 9th July

rossom

7.50 Ripon

Miami Gator 25/1

Although it seems very likely that he'll be taken on for the lead which isn't ideal and this isn't really a stiff track that he'll relish, he looks massively overpriced at 25/1 having won only 2 starts ago off a 4lb lower mark. He had a bit of a blowout LTO which you'll have to ignore but thats certainly factored into his price. On his 2nd last start he came home a very impressive winner at Hamilton under a fantastic ride under todays 7lb claimer Conor Harrison on what is the jockeys only ride of the night.

Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later.

At Carlisle last June, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort.

Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers before arriving back at a Carlisle track that he goes so well at. That day he wasn't at his best but he still put in a very solid effort to finish a 6.5L. In the early part of this year he wasn't really at his best but considering it was the first time since 2009 that he had more than a 2 month break I think he would have needed these 4 runs to get back to full fitness. On his 2nd last start he demonstrated that he was back to his best when landing a 1m Class 4 event at Hamilton last week in fine style off a mark of 77. In traditional fashion, Miami Gator made all and Conor Harrison had to be at his best as he needed to scrub along this 5 year old from about 3f out (always races like this). He galloped on excellently and he never ever looked like getting headed as he went on to score by 0.5L, but I think he'd have pulled out a little more if he needed to. I think its very telling to note that he turned the tables wit I'm Super Too, who had finished in front of at Carlisle on his previous start, which I think validates my claim that he's only just after reaching peak fitness. I think its also very interesting to note that Harrison said after the race that "we were worried about the quick ground when we walked the track before racing" (good, good to firm in places) so I'm slightly upgrading that effort. The form of that race took a big boost with the 2nd Ginger Jack finishing an excellent 0.5L 2nd off a 3lb higher mark upped in grade finishing just behind the progressive Enke and it certainly suggests that Miami Gator's current mark of 81 shouldn't be beyond him.

Its clear he's going to have to produce a career best effort to land this but I certainly think once he hits the winning trend he is very difficult animal to beat. He's encountering completely different ground than he faced last time with the going currently soft but he has won on soft ground before so it is absolutely no concern to me whatsoever. Conor Harrison, who couldn't have given him a better ride 2 starts back, keeps the ride and his 7lb claim (allowing him to race off effectively 76) should be a big help. He has good early speed which should allow him to get what looks like it could be quite a competitive battle for the front but I think he'll definitely be quick enough out of his sit in stall 6 to at least get a share of the lead. Although its going to take a career best effort, he's found the winning grove as he returns to a track he loves. If Harrison sets his fractions right from the front, I think he could prove very difficult to pass and I definitely think he can bounce back to land this event.

kryogen

Any thoughts on the race? I only saw that he finished about 17 lengths back but didn't see your write up till after the race and did't watch it

rossom

kryogen wrote: »

Any thoughts on the race? I only saw that he finished about 17 lengths back but didn't see your write up till after the race and did't watch it

He finished 8.25L back, don't know where you're getting 17 from. It was a much improved effort from him and I thought it was rather pleasing. He was harried early on for the lead by Koo And The Gang which wouldn't have suited as he probably had to go a little quicker than he wanted to and Harrison wouldn't have been able to give him a breather. He was scrubbed along from a fair way out in his traditional style and despite repelling his challengers for a while before his classier rivals got passed him with about 1.5f to go.

Don't think he's going to be that far away from winning again.