Making your own tissue

gaatipstr

Hi all, can any body give me advice on how to make your own tissue. I only want it for football or tennis where there is only 2/3 outcomes.

Can anybody explain how its done. I know you take in previous matches, location, team etc but how do you actually price up a match?

Like say tomorrow Kerry were to Dublin in a match how would you price that up?

Any help be really really appreciated

Thanks
D

maxpowers

It comes down to ratings essentially. In your example i would price it up as Dublin 4/5 Kerry 5/4 - 100% line.

You need to rank teams/players in ability to be able to price them up correctly.The easiest place to start is to pick the best player/team that you think and give them a base rating of 100. This works well for sports like Snooker/Golf/Darts/Tennis where there is no home/away bias in general.

Lets say the World Championship Snooker starts tomorrow and Ronnie is playing Ken Doherty - Ronnies rating would be 100 and Dohertys would be around 18. The art is knowing how many times out of 100 "simulations" will Ken win giving his rating? I would price it up as Ronnie 1/6 Ken 6/1

I could go on for hours on this subject!

Formation

how would you price up a europa league qualifier where liverpool are playing some eastern european minnows?

maxpowers

Formation wrote: »

how would you price up a europa league qualifier where liverpool are playing some eastern european minnows?

The best place to start with football compilation is to a) look at the long term stats b) rate the teams c) look at the non quantifiable factors like teams news,motiviation etc.After evaluating all three factors you should be able to price it up.

Lets say Liverpool are playing Shamrock Rovers in a Europa League Qualifier at home.

On average if a home team is playing a team of similar ability the stats would suggest that the home team will win around 46% of the time.This will be slightly higher for European Football and especially in the Europa League where home advantage is more of a factor.

If Liverpool were playing Napoli (two teams i would consider to be of equal ability) i would price it up as 1/1 9/4 9/4 - assuming no major injuries etc.

The 1/1 i would quote comes mainly from the long term trend but depending on their current home form you could quote anything from 4/5 to 6/5.

I would expect Liverpool to beat Rovers 88 times out of 100 - 1/12 15/2 25/1. For the away leg they would be around 4/11 shots.

As I said above the "art" is knowing the strentgh of each team. Its probably easier to rate leagues first and then teams within the leagues. This is especially true for teams in the eastern european countries.

gaatipstr

maxpowers wrote: »

It comes down to ratings essentially. In your example i would price it up as Dublin 4/5 Kerry 5/4 - 100% line.

You need to rank teams/players in ability to be able to price them up correctly.The easiest place to start is to pick the best player/team that you think and give them a base rating of 100. This works well for sports like Snooker/Golf/Darts/Tennis where there is no home/away bias in general.

Lets say the World Championship Snooker starts tomorrow and Ronnie is playing Ken Doherty - Ronnies rating would be 100 and Dohertys would be around 18. The art is knowing how many times out of 100 "simulations" will Ken win giving his rating? I would price it up as Ronnie 1/6 Ken 6/1

I could go on for hours on this subject!

Thanks for the reply Max. You seem to know a lot about creating odds. I have been doing a lot of tinkering around my own tissue for the all ireland hurling. I have priced up the following odds for the 3 possible draws kilkenny can get tomorrow. Hope im near enough

Kilkenny v Cork - 1/6 9/1 9/2
Kilkenny v Waterford - 1/8 12/1 13/2
Kilkenny v Limerick - 1/10 12/1 15/2

maxpowers

gaatipstr wrote: »

Thanks for the reply Max. You seem to know a lot about creating odds. I have been doing a lot of tinkering around my own tissue for the all ireland hurling. I have priced up the following odds for the 3 possible draws kilkenny can get tomorrow. Hope im near enough

Kilkenny v Cork - 1/6 9/1 9/2
Kilkenny v Waterford - 1/8 12/1 13/2
Kilkenny v Limerick - 1/10 12/1 15/2

Hi Gaatipsr, i have been working as a odds compiler/trader for the last 6 years so i would hope to know something useful after all these years!

PP priced Kilkenny @ 1/9 v Limerick. You were bang on. The draw prices are a little short but nothing major. The other prices look about right as well. Your on your way - the best piece of advise i can give you is that you always price something first before u check oddschecker. If you dont we can never know if a price is value or not.

Good Luck with your betting!

MuddyDog

With your rating system maxpowers - with football this season would you say Man City is 100, then UTD ~48 then Chelsea ~44? Or when you say City is 100 do you mean that in a particular match they are 100 and the other team is X?

maxpowers

MuddyDog wrote: »

With your rating system maxpowers - with football this season would you say Man City is 100, then UTD ~48 then Chelsea ~44? Or when you say City is 100 do you mean that in a particular match they are 100 and the other team is X?

they would be 100 for the entire season or at that particular time in question.Ratings need to be updated constantly.
I rate Man Utd as the 2nd strongest team in the league and would rate them at something like 95. If City were playing Man U at Wembley in a Cup Final i would make them slight favs - Man City 13/8 Draw 5/2 Man U 15/8 - 100% Lines

i would suggest you take a look at the below link. It rates all teams in Europe that have played in either the Champions or Europa League. You may find it useful.

http://www.euroclubindex.com/

So essentially if you rate two teams at 85; for example Newcastle & Fulham and they are playing at a neutral venue the match prices according to your ratings assuming no real draw bias will be - Newcastle 7/4 Draw 5/2 Fulham 7/4.If either are playing at home you would be making them around 11/10.

The real art in this is compling the correct ratings. If you can do this with decent accuracy you will make a profit. If Football betting is your thing i suggest studying a lower division/small european league as the Premiership is quite tough to get an edge.

Good Luck with it!

MuddyDog

Thanks for that max. Can you give me ratings for the Premier League for the forthcoming season so I can compare what I've got and then I'll be outta your hair for good!

maxpowers

MuddyDog wrote: »

Thanks for that max. Can you give me ratings for the Premier League for the forthcoming season so I can compare what I've got and then I'll be outta your hair for good!

no hassle!

obviously its a bit early to get correct ratings due to potential transfers but i will have a stab at the top 8 or so. These are rough estimates and if i was doing this for my own use i would spend at least 2 weeks getting my ratings - but this will get u on your way.

Man City - 100
Man Utd - 95
Chelsea - 87
Arsenal - 78
Spurs - 75
Liverpool - 71
Everton - 66
Newcastle - 64