The Future of the Labour Party

kev9100

One of the most interesting aspects of the last general election was the simultaneous rise of Labour, Sinn Fein and the ULA. In general, all three of these parties are competing for the same type of voter and while I would guess that the people who voted for Sinn Fein and the ULA are relatively content with how they have performed, I sense there is a fairly strong sense of anger/disillusionment at Labour among those who voted for them last time around. In theory, this anger should be great for SF and the ULA. However, both SF and the ULA have significant problems themselves. Sinn Fein still has so much baggage from the past that it has so far failed to shake off and the ULA is apparently quite divided amongs themselves.

So, my question is: what do you think the future is for the Labour party? My personal bet is that the despite increasing pressure from the grassroots the Labour leadership will move ever closer to Fine Gael.

Sunnyisland

Is there any chance of a split in the labour grassroots with some TD,s resigning there membership ? and what reaction will the unions be to the continuing support labour are given to FG in goverment,My assumption here that it will be labour who will take the full brunt of the voters anger at the next election with SF/IND & ULA in getting a lot more seats,Out of all this maybe a new labour will be formed ?

Sponge Bob

Whatever about the leadership moving closer to FG I reckon they face a wipeout at the next local elections and that Gilmore will simply try to brazen it out as he has no plan B.

One of their ministers resigned his ministry and whip last year lest anyone forget. They are facing a period of years rebuilding after the next general election I fear.

spank_inferno

Looking at this from a 'working class' area, Labour will face some problems.
However I don't think they will face wipeout.

They are still the party for many public servants and the middle-classes who think they are leftist.

The may lose a few seats but I reckon will return enough to form the next government with FG

OneOfThem Stumbled

For either Sinn Fein or ULA to maintain or increase support they'll be largely dependent on the economy remaining in the doldrums. Labour, I'd say, is largely excluded from this sort of support during recession (or indeed corresponding drop in support in less lean times).

Dirk Gently

Ideally labour / FG / FF would just merge and get it over with but realistically we'll continue to have an illusion of choice, with labour being the bit party behind FF and FG. The party lacks any credible medium to long term strategy as they prove again and again by making the same mistake propping up conservative governments. There is a gap in the market for a reforming party but labour is firmly part of the establishment. It's getting crowded between FF/FG/LAB and I think lab are the ones who'll disappear as the other two have a certain pig headed core base who'd vote for them no matter what. I don't think labour have those kind of die hard supporters and their support will tend to vote based on issues and politics rather than a brand name.

I think SF will probably become the new labour within a couple of GE's with FF and FG making up the other 2 big parties. I think it unlikely we will see the emergance of a reforming party we so badly need.

Boulevardier

I think that if Labour do not get their act together there will be a split in the party in 2 years or so, posssibly following a local election massacre in 2014.

At the moment it is an FG government with Labour making up the numbers.

Defenders of the leadership argue that they are moderating the severity of FG policies and are getting on quietly with low-profile reform. My answer to that is: when you are explaining, you are losing. Only an obviously Labour-driven government agenda can give Labour the profile it needs to prevent electoral wipeout.

Labour need to put a gun to FGs head. I would suggest that Labour threaten to walk out if the following 4 conditions are not met within the next year: Faster progress towards a single-tier health system, collective bargaining rights, a 48% income tax on high earners, and no sale of any state assets.

spank_inferno

Boulevardier wrote: »

Labour need to put a gun to FGs head. I would suggest that Labour threaten to walk out if the following 4 conditions are not met within the next year: Faster progress towards a single-tier health system, collective bargaining rights, a 48% income tax on high earners, and no sale of any state assets.

That wont do either party, or the country any good.

And besides:
- FG are already working towards a single-tier health system, though will face usual resistance from unions.
- I'm not sure what collective bargaining rights is supposed to mean?
They already exist and are not unther threat.
- High income earners already pay that or thereabouts on their income.
- State assets will (and probably should) be sold when the price is right.


I agree with the previous posters, they may lose the working class vote, but I'm not sure they are interested in it anyway.

The "labour" tag is just a logo to distinguish it from hts centre stablemates.

Boulevardier

Collective bargaining rights mean that employees must recognise unions where the employees so wish. It is in the programme for government but Bruton is sitting on it.

If Labour take part in the sale of state assets then members and supporters will simply not turn out at the next election and they will be finished.

The better off must pay more then they are doing or, again, Labour is finished at the next election.

Sponge Bob

spank_inferno wrote: »

However I don't think they will face wipeout.

They are still the party for many public servants and the middle-classes who think they are leftist.

They are the party of the Unionised lower middle classes as you say, however they are no longer the party of the non unionised working class and are more representative of the unemployed and long term disabled etc.

I don't think there generally is a quota of those electors in any constituency with less than 5 seats ( 4 seaters in some urban areas) and I think they will inevitably be forced to let down the unemployed and long term disabled thereby putting even their 5 seaters at risk.

The Shinners will wipe them out in rural and small town Ireland, possibly as early as the local elections in 2014. The Shinners, of course, have the luxury of being able to oppose everything at a time when there isa great plenty of things to oppose.

Ironically the Shinners are aligned with Labour and FG in Mayoral rotation pacts right across the state which were formed as ABFF coalitions in 2009 or running for years before then. The Shinners will get their paws on a lot of Mayoralties in 2013 and 2014 just in time for the elections.....sure didn't the Shinners hold fast and make Frank McBrearty (lab) mayor of Donegal only yesterday.

I do not see Labour remaining in coalition after the 2014 local/euros and the other problem labour have is that the likes of Gilmore and Rabbitte and Burton are unlikely to run for them again but that their next political generation is pretty invisible and many are also vulnerable to SF in rural areas ..eg Kelly and Sherlock .

The future of the Labour Party will depend on who survives in urban areas after the next general election....not on near pensioners such as Gilmore Rabbitte Burton Jan O Sullivan and Kathleen Lynch..many now aged 60+ (Lynch is 59 and Gilmore 57 ) and not hanging around to clean up the mess.

They all came too late to power...they might have done a 'labours way' thing if elected in 2002 but it is far too late for them to do anything meaningful now bar cope with the inevitable electoral implosion and slink away.

jonniebgood1

Union agreements next year will end their current support levels among normal un-unionised workers. It may even bring down the government.

Sponge Bob

I'd say they will survive a 'Croke Park 2' in 2013 but the locals in May or June 2014 will be the killer.

hyperborean

A high possibilty of a split in the next 2-5 years, the core idealists v the centrist politico's.

There needs to be direct leftist opposition to SF votes, lying with the dogs in government will only chase away good nature d lefties to the cynical dangerous views of SF/IRA and many Labour members are seeing this now.

maccored

hyperborean wrote: »

A high possibilty of a split in the next 2-5 years, the core idealists v the centrist politico's.

There needs to be direct leftist opposition to SF votes, lying with the dogs in government will only chase away good nature d lefties to the cynical dangerous views of SF/IRA and many Labour members are seeing this now.

who are SF/IRA again?

RandomName2

maccored wrote: »

who are SF/IRA again?

I'm not terribly keen on the term because it's... biased and a bit sloppy (as they are two separate organisations... a bit like saying MI5/Metropolitan Police)

But, since you asked:
http://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/local/sinn-fein-members-with-ira-links-1-2738798

Sponge Bob

hyperborean wrote: »

A high possibilty of a split in the next 2-5 years, the core idealists v the centrist politico's.

This happened with Noel Browne and the SLP during a previous coalition excursion with FG in the 1970s, they died a death TBH.

Kemmy was another example for quite a while, arguably he left Labour not so much on ideology but because they refused to run 2 candidates for a guaranteed seat in Limerick ...just like Michael D in Galway in recent years vis a vis Catherine Connolly. There is no obvious Kemmyesque figure in Limerick today but there is in Galway.

There needs to be direct leftist opposition to SF votes, lying with the dogs in government will only chase away good nature d lefties to the cynical dangerous views of SF/IRA and many Labour members are seeing this now.

Dunno about that either.

It won't happen in urban areas I reckon although it has happened in Rural areas which are less lumpen Labourite ( not having much by way of unions ) ...eg Former Labour member/candidate Trevor O Clochartaigh...now SF Senator.

If anything (in Urban areas) existing fringe left parties will expand, eg Higgins's Socialists and the ULA which is a respectable front for what is a pack of Independents more than a 'party' as such. I'd see the ULA franchise expanding in Dublin for sure...we shall see about other urban areas.

Depends on how well ULA/Socialists do in time for the locals.

laoch na mona

labour lost the working class vote long ago

laoch na mona

hyperborean wrote: »

A high possibilty of a split in the next 2-5 years, the core idealists v the centrist politico's.

There needs to be direct leftist opposition to SF votes, lying with the dogs in government will only chase away good nature d lefties to the cynical dangerous views of gilmore/OIRA and many Labour members are seeing this now.

fixed that for you

hyperborean

laoch na mona wrote: »

labour lost the working class vote long ago

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2011/1007/1224305387414.html

In class terms, Labour’s vote is strongest among the C2 and DE categories but it also retains a reasonable level of middle-class support. The party does very well among the very youngest 18- to 24-year-olds but it is lowest among over-65s

A Higher Managerial
B Lower Managerial
C1 Skilled Supervisors
C2 Skilled Manual
D Unskilled manual/Manual
E Unemployed/Poor


The point if you didn't get it already is that Labour has not lost its working class vote

And another thing, refrain from amending my post. Are you SF by any chance, this is the type of thing I would expect of one of their fan boys

4.legs.good

laoch na mona wrote: »

labour lost the working class vote long ago

Looking at the unemployment numbers the "working" class is now the "not working" class, and the current Labour bunch are only too happy to add to this category.

Unemployment and discontent is "good" for left parties, as bad circumstances pushes people to the left.

Dirk Gently

hyperborean wrote: »

The point if you didn't get it already is that Labour has not lost its working class vote

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that it will have lost it come next election

hyperborean wrote: »

And another thing, refrain from amending my post. Are you SF by any chance, this is the type of thing I would expect of one of their fan boys

I'm not a SF fan boy but the other poster does have a point tbh, even if he did ammend your post to make it.

hyperborean

Dirk Gently wrote: »

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that it will have lost it come next election


.

I would say your right, but as it stands they had a very clear working class voting demographic from the last election which is all that matters and soap boxing statements from SF fan boys will not change that.

I will stick my neck out and say you are one of the potential sf voters that statements like that are intended, lost and looking for alternatives.

kev9100

As i said in my original OP, Labour will have some very significant problems in the next general election if SF and the ULA are competent enough to take advantage. SF may be able to do this, but I have my doubts over the ULA.

RATM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Whatever about the leadership moving closer to FG I reckon they face a wipeout at the next local elections and that Gilmore will simply try to brazen it out as he has no plan B.

One of their ministers resigned his ministry and whip last year lest anyone forget. They are facing a period of years rebuilding after the next general election I fear.

Pretty much bang on I would say. I voted for the at the last GE and so did another 6 people I know. Talking to them only 1 of the 6 would consider doing so again and she is a teacher so knows where her bread is buttered. There isn't a hope in hell I'll vote Labour next time out, or ever again for that matter. I know my story is only an anecdote but my guess is that it is being repeated up and down the country- people feel sold out by Labour and this isn't something that can be repaired IMHO. They have broken a trust in an astoinishingly small amount of time. Their behaviour in power goes to show that they spoke out of two sides of their mouth just to attain power and once they had it they were willing to betray everything they said they stod for.

I can see Labour being deserted by the working classes for sure. And anyone in the middle classes who isn't a civil or public servant are likely to go elsewhere too. There is a good chance that it will be SF/ULA for some but not all. Labour's lies in government and FF incompentence before them have created a vacumn in Irish politics and it has to get filled somehow.

I'd say Labour will be lucky to poll between 9%-11% at the next GE, they will lose at least half their current seats, and rightly so.

OneOfThem Stumbled

Would someone be able to point out for me how/if in terms of policies:
Labour, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail differ from one another

Socialist Party, People Before Profit or Sinn Fein differ from one another?

Sunnyisland

One Of Them Stumbled wrote: »

Would someone be able to point out for me how/if in terms of policies:
Labour, Fine Gael or Fianna Fail differ from one another

Socialist Party, People Before Profit or Sinn Fein differ from one another?

At the moment there is no difference, when your in Government you have the opposition denouncing everything the in government do,and when its the opposition in power it becomes vice versa