How I pick my selections

rossom

Right guys Markgc asked me to do a little note on how I come to select my horses. Its a technique I've gradually sculpted and hopefully some of you will find it beneficial.

Firstly, I would advise everyone to get a horse tracker. One of the most invaluable tools you can use for getting reminders about horses that have either caught your eye as being unlucky in running, given a tender ride or so on. Your eyes don't generally lie to you and if you've seen something its probably worth noting. Make sure you add a note about why your notebooking it as you often forget. There are plenty of trackers available with the ones on www.irishracing.com & www.nagme.com two that work well together.

My advice to everyone would be to avoid Claimers and Sellers. Far too unpredictable in my eyes and a very hard place to make money from. When going through the cards initially, I mostly avoid maidens as breeding isn't my strong point but if people have a good record in those races then keep analysing them as there is definitely money to be made. With so many races daily, I generally quickly scan through each race and see if I recognise any horses in the race. As I watch a lot of races, knowing a horse or horses in a race it generally gives me a base point to base the rest of the horses in the race around. I'd also look into the form and see what sort of level the horse should be running to and its basically what I do to start.

In terms of analysing the form, I generally first try to see what sort of marks the horses have run to before and what their mark is now. If that initially interests me, I'll start looking at a lot of things such as trainer form, course form, ground form, trainer/jockey record, form at distance. There really is a lot of different elements and I am probably forgetting one. I also make sure to look at videos of the horses last few races and wins to see if they look like they could be coming back to form or if they can progress again further. Its vital to watch races in my opinion as a horses chances makes up more than simply numbers and figures.

I know this all seems like a bit waffly but I don't really know how to describe it - I just go about doing it. The best piece of advice I would give people is to read my write ups and those of others and see what elements are highlighted. Its the main way I learned to adapt my own style. If anyone has any questions just ask and I'll try and answer them

I should also add that I use the RP website to look at the form, and I don't pay for any of the added extras.

the groutch

rossom wrote: »

My advice to everyone would be to avoid Claimers and Sellers.

they're one of my favorite types of race for betting on.
with those kind of races I'm looking for horses who are much better off at the weights than if it were a handicap.

rossom

the groutch wrote: »

they're one of my favorite types of race for betting on.
with those kind of races I'm looking for horses who are much better off at the weights than if it were a handicap.

I get where your coming from but they throw up to many weird results for me. Prime example being today. The 43 rated Aubrietia racing off 8 stone comprehensively beat the 70 rated Aquasulis racing off 8 stone 6.

MoscowFlyer

I've recently started studying horse racing a bit more but there is no way I could put together a meaningful writeup, hopefully further down the road I'll gain more knowledge and be able to put together something decent. I enjoy reading writeups about horses from all over the internet, you don't have to have a bet on horse racing to enjoy it. I find myself picking out a race and going through every horse and coming up with my own odds and compare it to what the actual odds are. I find that is a great way to judge things.

smemon

What kind of discipline or strategy do you guys (Rossom in particular) apply when making bets?

For example do you place each bet as a % of your bank or do you have a set amount you bet per horse? Does that amount increase / decrease based on any particular factor?

rossom

smemon wrote: »

What kind of discipline or strategy do you guys (Rossom in particular) apply when making bets?

For example do you place each bet as a % of your bank or do you have a set amount you bet per horse? Does that amount increase / decrease based on any particular factor?

If I wasn't a student then I'd definitely have strict guidelines about % of bank I place. However, I'm not able to work during my Masters so I basically bet with whatever money I have. If I had a regular income, my bets would deviate on how much I fancied them (I'd gladly back a 50/1 shot I really fancied with the same stake as a 2/1 shot).

I've actually been unable to back several of the winners I've posted up due to lack of finance!

smemon

rossom wrote: »

If I wasn't a student then I'd definitely have strict guidelines about % of bank I place. However, I'm not able to work during my Masters so I basically bet with whatever money I have. If I had a regular income, my bets would deviate on how much I fancied them (I'd gladly back a 50/1 shot I really fancied with the same stake as a 2/1 shot).

I've actually been unable to back several of the winners I've posted up due to lack of finance!

I find that's the most challenging part... i'm relatively good at picking winners (in soccer / tennis) but knowing what to stake and when is my weakness. Knowing how much loss to build in to a strategy is crucial to maintain your sanity otherwise a couple of losses could wipe you out which is obviously not something you plan to do yet something that has to be 'accepted' at some stage.

I've sneakily been compiling a list of your tips and running some basic calculations on them. €5 each way (so €10 total) on every horse you've tipped over the past 8 days (as far as i've gone back) would give a profit of ~€130 for €240 staked which ain't bad at all... that's just over one week and i know it was a relatively quiet week too in terms of winners.

The challenge of course is to figure out what to stake for every horse or whether to simply back e/w, winners, same amount on each horse etc...

rossom

smemon wrote: »

I find that's the most challenging part... i'm relatively good at picking winners (in soccer / tennis) but knowing what to stake and when is my weakness. Knowing how much loss to build in to a strategy is crucial to maintain your sanity otherwise a couple of losses could wipe you out which is obviously not something you plan to do yet something that has to be 'accepted' at some stage.

I've sneakily been compiling a list of your tips and running some basic calculations on them. €5 each way (so €10 total) on every horse you've tipped over the past 8 days (as far as i've gone back) would give a profit of ~€130 for €240 staked which ain't bad at all... that's just over one week and i know it was a relatively quiet week too in terms of winners.

The challenge of course is to figure out what to stake for every horse or whether to simply back e/w, winners, same amount on each horse etc...

Pretty sure I'm going to start a points scale of 1-5pts (5 being largest stakes). Best way to do it

whogivesashlt

Thanks for that Rossom and I'm already avoiding the claimers/sellers and maidens. I read Nick Mordins book (I think, could have been someone else) a few years back and he likewise said to avoid those types.

I also tried keeping a record of every type of race, class, distance, aw, jumps or turf and SP and it's a big eye opener. It helps you weed out the week links.

I'm definitely going to take your advice on the tracker and watching recent races.

Do you mind me asking how much timed research you'd invest in one race?

I also need to master a staking plan if you've any advice.

newuser89

I find novice chases a gd source of winners
You can often find that the highest rated hurdler in the field at a very reasonable price
When it's his first start over fences that is
Sublime talent was a example of that, but he looks better over fences anyway
He's 6/4 at Newton abbot this evening(I backed him on his first two chases which he won and he barely put a foot wrong winning comfortably)