Friday (with Royal Ascot pinstickers)

mike65

I'm getting a bit better every day, so hopefully Friday is payday!


ROYAL ASCOT 14:30 ALBANY STAKES (GROUP 3) 6f
22-06-2012 14:30
Win or E/W
Kosika @ 15.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 15:45 CORONATION STAKES (GROUP 1) 1m
22-06-2012 15:45
Win or E/W
Irish History @ 13.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 16:25 WOLFERTON HANDICAP 1m 2f
22-06-2012 16:25
Win or E/W
Mijhaar @ 5.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 17:00 QUEENS VASE (GROUP 3) 2m
22-06-2012 17:00
Win or E/W
Estimate @ 5.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 17:35 BUCKINGHAM PALACE STAKES 7f
22-06-2012 17:35
Win or E/W
Emilio Largo @ 12.00 (GP)

Just1

Irish History is one that i will definately be having a look at tomorrow, some what boxed in and messed about in his last race at Sandown. I reckon he would have been in the shake up had he found a gap. Currently at 12s with PP. I think i'll have some of that..

d-gal

2.30 ascot: always a tough race but having a speculative bet on Oliver's Sendmylovetorose. Won on soft easily for her maiden and with cut in the ground expected she looks a lovely price

3.05 ascot: really don't fancy Astrology so I am going with noble mission who will love this trip and the ground NB

3.45 ascot: NAP. How homecoming queen is 3/1 I do not know. Cut in the ground and if it rains anymore it is her out in front and won't be caught. Very confident

4.25 ascot: going for Gosden's 2nd string in beachfire. Won really well here last year and 20/1 is far too big for this horse who I hope has come on from last years success

rossom

Way too many things I like the look of! I'll try get a couple of write ups done

2.30 Ascot Kosika 18/1 (small bet)

4.10 Market Rasen No Panic 14/1

4.25 Ascot Qaraaba 8/1 NAP

5.10 Redcar Broctune Papa Gio 9/1

8.05 Newmarket Greensward 9/1 & Al Khan 20/1

8.50 Ayr Five Star Junior 14/1 NB

9.10 Newmarket Cats Eyes 9/4


I also like 5.35 Ascot Global Village 10/1 but I'm afraid that with the ground now softer that there is a bias towards the lower draws. If that doesn't seem the case tomorrow after the first couple of races I'll be backing him

rossom

4.25 Ascot

Qaraaba 8/1 NAP

I put Qaraaba up as an extremely confident bet on his last start as he duly sauntered home on the bridle and he really seems like a 5 year old destined for Pattern company. After a good 3 year old season and an ok 4 year old season, Qaraaba has really taken off now a 5 year old winning 3 of his 4 starts this year only finding the similarly progressive rival Danadana too good for him 2 starts ago. The day Danadana beat Qaraaba, todays selection was conceding him 3lb as he lost by 1.75L but I certainly think the rain that has fallen will significantly turn the tables on that rival as they race off level weights. Danadana seems like he is at his best on good ground or better and on his last start Qaraaba seemed to absolutely love the soft ground in what was his first on the surface which turned out to be by far most impressive effort to date. The form of the Qaraaba/Danadana race looks absolutely rock solid with both rivals winning on their only subsequent starts. Furthermore the 5th won impressively upped in class off the same mark and the 6th Borug finished a 0.5L beaten 3rd to tomorrows favourite Gatewood. Qaraaba's last start came off a mark of 91 and he couldn't have won any easier. Moreover, the form of that race has worked out really well. The 2nd Dragonera finished 2nd in a Listed contest, the 3rd Maven ran a good 3rd off the same mark and the 5th Bolivia won by 7L off a 4lb lower mark on his only subsequent start. Given the visual display coupled with the form in behind I certainly don't think a 9lb rise to a mark of 101 is beyond him and he definitely looks like a Listed or Group performer. Although this represents a significant step up in Class to a Listed Handicap, I'm very, very confident of a massive showing from Seamus Durack's 5 year old with George Baker taking the ride again.

8.50 Ayr

Five Star Junior 14/1 NB

Really like the look of Linda Stubbs's 6 year old who looks very well handicapped off a mark of 87. His last 8 starts have come on the AW but I think the return to turf on ideal good to firm ground will get him his first win in 16 months. Since October last year, he has put in some good efforts off much higher marks most notably a 0.31L defeat at Dundalk off a mark of 97 and a 1.25L defeat in 3rd off a mark of 91 where the 1st and 4th have won again since. Five Star Junior's last turf effort actually came off a 2lb higher mark last September in a very hot Class 3 handicap. He came a very good 3L 3rd that day and the form of that race is extremely strong. The 1st, 2nd and 4th all won on their next starts making a replication of this effort more than strong enough to land this in my eyes. I think its very eye catching that he returns to Ayr where has only had one start to date in his career - a victory over 5f back in 2010. Luke McNiff takes the ride on Five Star Junior for the first time and he takes a very handy 5lb off his back. Moreover, its his first ride for Stubbs and he looks an eye catching booking on what is her only runner at the track. Stubbs's last two runners have both finished 2nd and she seems to be hitting form. With a good draw in stall 3, I'm very confident of a very big showing from Five Star Junior and if back to form I think he could take a heck of a lot of beating tomorrow.

5.10 Redcar

Broctune Papa Gio 9/1

Really like the look of Keith Reveley's 5 year old who I think can build on his last two very promising runs with a return to the track he seems to love. In his last 7 starts at the track, he has won 3 times and also finished a 1.25L beaten 2nd twice and it is clearly the venue where he reserves his best running. He's had two starts this year, an excellent 2nd at the track on the back of a 6 month break (I was convinced he'd need the run) off a 2lb lower mark and he followed that up with a 1.75L beaten 3rd off this mark at Carlisle on his last start. Both races have extremely strong form and racing off the same mark of 64 as he did last time seems very reasonable on the part of the handicapper. He's 4lb above his last winning mark but his last two efforts certainly indicate to me that he's not far away from winning. Shane B Kelly takes the ride for the first time tomorrow and he takes a very useful 5lb off this 5 year olds back. The trainer/jockey combination have had 1 win from 5 starts and he certainly looks like a positive booking. Keith Reveley seems to have hit form this year and with Broctune Papa Gio landing this race last year I'm confident he can put up a repeat performance, although I'd hope no significant amount of rain falls.

4.10 Market Rasen

No Panic 14/1

Got to return from a few shocking efforts, including one yersterday, but I think the return to better ground and Market Rasen could see him coming back to form. There isn't much to go on with recent form, but he's definitely well handicapped as he is 4lb below his last winning mark and also 11lb below winning in 2010. He seems to absolutely love it at the track with a one win, and a 0.31L & 3L 2nds in 4 starts at the track and a return to this venue may spark a revival. Trainer Peter Bowen is in absolutely flying for at present with 7 winners in the past 14 days and its definitely a major contributing factor to me backing No Panic. Although definitely only worth a small bet, he looks overpriced and I hope he can bounce back to form and play a prominent roll in the finish.

DelSutton

Cardigan went right into my note book after the first ride, fantasic looking horse. This is same ground as the last race, it was only 6f but she looked to have a lot more in the tank. Very big jump in class, wont be having a bet on her thou, but one to watch out for.
Decided i had to favour Homecoming Queen with the ground and at 10/3 a nice price for a horse that in theory should run away with it.

garyc1987

after a good start yesterday everything went pear shaped...

todays ew lucky 15:

Sendmylovetorose 2.30
Irish History 3.45
Macbeth 5.00
Docofthebay 5.35

also like qaraaba, homecomingqueen and astrology to win

longshotvalue

5:35


Imperial Guest is another Ascot specialist in a similar vein to my selection earlier on this week from the same team Excellent Guest. We can be sure with both the Royal Ascot is their main target for the year and with such a good run from Excellent earlier on this week there is no way I can desert Imperial in this race. He has been in the firing line on a number of occasions on this course and the current 42 on Betfair is vastly overpriced so I’ll be taking advantage. Ill add another EW bet as soon as 33/1 becomes available with one of the bookies offering 5 places.
1 Point win 42 Betfair


33/1 EW with 5 places available with Paddy Power so and additional 1 PT EW here


Atlantic Sport is another I have picked a few times around here. He has a number of very decent performances in similar races in the last year or 2 off higher marks than the 92 he has today. For example he was a good 5th in the International over this C&D last year on Good-Soft ground of a mark of 100. He has had only 1 run this year which should be to his advantage and the 40/1 with 5 places looks overpriced.


1pt EW 40/1 Paddy Power Boyles etc.

cardwizzard

Gone to have a nice quiet day, not to many I really fancy.

The one decent bet i'll have is Kirthill 16/1 at the moment in various places. Was held up a little and eased when in traffic last time out, and i'll think Cumani will have it spot on for today. I'll be betting on the nose, but its tasty enough for e/w backers.

Good luck.

MoscowFlyer

With the ground getting softer and softer the one I really fancy today is Ed De Gas @ 5.00 Ascot. Around the 11/1 mark right now. This horse destroyed the field, albeit in a Class 3 race at Catterick on soft ground, but a 12L victory is nothing to be sniffed at. This was it's only run on the turf, the last time out was a trial race at this level but it was ran on the AW at Lingfield. Im expecting a pretty big bounceback today and I think this is worthy of a few quid E/W. Good luck!

rossom

cardwizzard wrote: »

Gone to have a nice quiet day, not to many I really fancy.

The one decent bet i'll have is Kirthill 16/1 at the moment in various places. Was held up a little and eased when in traffic last time out, and i'll think Cumani will have it spot on for today. I'll be betting on the nose, but its tasty enough for e/w backers.

Good luck.

I've seen a fair few people I respect put up this one. Going to do a RFC with Qaraaba as I think a gamble may very well be coming later on

Shane732

Aidan O' Brien treble today. :p

I'm not really understanding why some people think Astrology will be beaten though. Assuming the extra time between the Derby and Ascot means that the horse will be fully recovered then I don't see how Thought Worthy will over turn the form.

Has Noble Mission improved enough to beat them both? How much would he need to have improved - 10l?

d-gal

Shane732 wrote: »

Aidan O' Brien treble today. :p

I'm not really understanding why some people think Astrology will be beaten though. Assuming the extra time between the Derby and Ascot means that the horse will be fully recovered then I don't see how Thought Worthy will over turn the form.

Has Noble Mission improved enough to beat them both? How much would he need to have improved - 10l?

Not really, he was unlucky last time and the softer ground and trip will suit. I wouldn't fancy thought worthy at all and I think astrology is way too short. Noble mission at 4/1 is a great price and can't see him outside top 2

rossom

If anyone got some of the 9s on Broctune Papa Gio I'd be laying off your stake at 4s. Rain has made the going good to soft and he's definitely suited on better ground.

rossom

Waiting to see what the draw bias is for the first couple of races but if it suits low numbers like I think it will then I'll be all over Maarek at 14s tomorrow. Put him up last time out when landing a competitive handicap at Newmarket on Guineas weekend when scoring under off a mark of 102. He's been raised to a mark of 108 and he's going to face a monumental effort under top weight of 9-10 in this incredibly competitive 29 runner handicap. His last two wins have been under 10 stone and 9-8 so he has no problems carrying huge weights. Ground conditions will be ideal (moreso than the last day) and if the draw proves to be fine after the first few races today I'm going to have a decent chunk on him as he's definitely pattern class. Bigger write up to come in due course

Shane732

Newfangled looks a very nice horse.

Nice win.

Edit: New Approach is having some season. Stud fee next year will be a multiple of what it was.

Johner

That was a great performance.

Shane732

Nicely done by Johnny.

Astrology was well beaten.

d-gal

Complete pocket talk but Queally u bloody muppet!

Shane732

d-gal wrote: »

Complete pocket talk but Queally u bloody muppet!

Johnny seemed to think that his won a shade cosily.

I thought Noble Mission was going to win it easy at one stage.

MoscowFlyer

rossom wrote: »

I also like 5.35 Ascot Global Village 10/1 but I'm afraid that with the ground now softer that there is a bias towards the lower draws. If that doesn't seem the case tomorrow after the first couple of races I'll be backing him

I've been following this horse all year and it's been quite profitable

The wind is drying the course all the time but I don't even think it will affect it that much. With Fallon back on board Im even more confident because the last time he was on it he gave it one of the rides of the year.

MyStubbleItches

d-gal wrote: »

Complete pocket talk but Queally u bloody muppet!

I was on Noble Mission too but I couldn't fault Queally there. Looks like he needed the cover and that he idled a bit when he hit the front. I just put it down to bad luck in running really.

MyStubbleItches

Still think Ryan Moore won the 1000 Guineas, can't see HQ winning this.

DelSutton

DelSutton wrote: »

Cardigan went right into my note book after the first ride, fantasic looking horse. This is same ground as the last race, it was only 6f but she looked to have a lot more in the tank. Very big jump in class, wont be having a bet on her thou, but one to watch out for.

poor Cardigan had one nasty start looks like she needs more races, but i will be keeping an eye on her.

MoscowFlyer

George Baker just gave himself way too much to do with Qaraaba. At least he got 4th to cover the E/W

Shane732

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

George Baker just gave himself way too much to do with Qaraaba. At least he got 4th to cover the E/W

He sat a mile back, made up a few places on the inside then dropped back before going outside the whole field.

Slightly unusual tactics!

Johner

The best horse won, Gatewood is improving alot.

Shane732

Estimate won it well - we'll have to listen to the BBC creaming themselves over it now.

MoscowFlyer

Johner wrote: »

The best horse won, Gatewood is improving alot.

Yeah probably was the best horse but Qaraaba is better than what she showed today IMO

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

With the ground getting softer and softer the one I really fancy today is Ed De Gas @ 5.00 Ascot. Around the 11/1 mark right now. This horse destroyed the field, albeit in a Class 3 race at Catterick on soft ground, but a 12L victory is nothing to be sniffed at. This was it's only run on the turf, the last time out was a trial race at this level but it was ran on the AW at Lingfield. Im expecting a pretty big bounceback today and I think this is worthy of a few quid E/W. Good luck!

Came home 3rd. Decent run.

Johner

Going for Docofthebay in the last 20/1.

Some good runs at Ascot and 5th in this race last year.

MyStubbleItches

Bronze Prince e/w for me. 28/1 :pac:

rossom

Huge moment for Maarek now in terms of the draw tomorrow. C'mon the lower numbers! I highlighted Global Village last night at 12s but didn't have a bet and he's a stupid price at 5s and he is also highly drawn. Two against the field are Atlantic Sport 25/1 & Thunderball 33/1

rossom

rossom wrote: »

Huge moment for Maarek now in terms of the draw tomorrow. C'mon the lower numbers! I highlighted Global Village last night at 12s but didn't have a bet and he's a stupid price at 5s and he is also highly drawn. Two against the field are Atlantic Sport 25/1 & Thunderball 33/1

Atlantic Sport 3rd.

1st home was low numbers side. 2nd, 3rd and 4th were stand side and 5th was far side. Doesn't seem a huge disparity for the draw

Shane732

rossom wrote: »

Huge moment for Maarek now in terms of the draw tomorrow. C'mon the lower numbers! I highlighted Global Village last night at 12s but didn't have a bet and he's a stupid price at 5s and he is also highly drawn. Two against the field are Atlantic Sport 25/1 & Thunderball 33/1

Lower it is. No real bias though.

dchris

Great race by Jamesie. Was a great price @ 22-1 which I thought was generous enough.