Wednesday 20th June: Day 2 Royal Ascot

rossom

Thought I'd set up a thread for tomorrow as todays thread has gotten very condensed.‎

4.25 Ascot Common Touch 40/1 represents my NAP of the day tomorrow and probably 2nd most fancied horse to Saddlers Rock this week.

marc96

I like DELPHICA in the 5pm at 40/1

ThinkAboutIt

i backed Most Improved from this site today url]http://gamblerfalls.com/royal-ascot-preview-20th-of-june/[/url so going with Hello Glory and Hairy Rocket so far

hope so you think can win for the irish

rossom

4.25 Ascot

Common Touch 40/1 NAP

Realy like the look of Richard Fahey's 4 year old Common Touch who I think still has the profile of a horse that has not yet finished improving and who looks a very overpriced at 40/1. With only 8 career starts to date, Common Touch has hardly done much wrong winning 3 times and finishing 2nd a further twice and I think after his recent reappearance run I think he should definitely be primed to strike. After making a successful debut as a 2 year old, he was slightly disappointing on his 2nd and final 2 YO start in a handicap debut off a mark of 80 when finishing a 2L beaten 4th.

Common Touch really excelled himself as a 3 year old and demonstrated how progressive an animal he was. On the back of a 7 month break, he ran a very good 0.5L beaten 2nd at Beverley off a mark of 80. In the 5 runner field, Common Touch broke well and pulled very hard early on as Paul Hanagan looked for a bit of cover. After about a furlong or so he got this cover and eventually went down narrowly in a tight finish. He lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day, especially given the winner Belle Royale has turned out to be a very progressive animal who rounded off her 3 year old campaign by winning 3 on the trot, the last impressively off a mark of 102 and the 3rd Kingscroft has also won off a 5lb higher mark. Risen 3lb for that effort, Common Touch returned to winning ways when landing a handicap at York over 7f by 1.25L. It was a very likeable effort and Common Touch saw out the trip very well and it was a tenacious and determined effort by Common Touch.

Risen 5lb for this effort to a mark of 88, Common Touch demonstrated his progressive nature when running out a very impressive winner over that same C+D as his at York win 10 days earlier as he romped home by 3.25L. In the field of 14, he was settled towards the rear and he made some very good progress before pulling right away in the final 150 yards to score in eye catching fashion. That effort demonstrated that the step up to a mile would suit. After this, Common Touch was risen 9lb to a mark of 97 as he attempted to land the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot but you have to ignore that effort. There was a massive bias to the group that raced on the stands side and Common Touch was part of the group that were clearly racing on the slower part of the track. The slightly softer Good to Soft going may also not have been ideal but that is unclear and hopefully it doesn't rain tomorrow or does only very slightly.

Common Touch had his final start as a 3 year old last July where he put in a good display to finish a 0.75L beaten 2nd at Goodwood off a mark of 95 - the same mark he races off tomorrow. That day, he was ridden along from a fair way out which is unlike him and he only really got going late on over the 7f trip as he made up a lot of ground late on. On the basis of this effort and his impressive win over the same trip at York, I really think a mile will suit him. Nevertheless, that race was only 0.33 seconds slower than Strong Suit's Group 2 victory the day before (although ground was probably a bit drier for this race) and the form looks good too. The winner Webbow put in a very good 1L beaten 2nd behind the very talented Eton Rifles on his next start whilst the 3rd Smarty Socks has won since off a 2lb higher mark and has put in a very good performance off a mark of 102 as well. Common Touch's final start came on the back of a 295 day absence and Paul Hanagan was commentating for Channel 4 that day. I got the distinct impression he liked this horse quite a bit and that Fahey had certainly left a bit of horse to work with. That said, it was hardly the most inspiring run and you've got to take a chance that it was a once off.

Tomorrow Common Touch faces the straight mile at Royal Ascot and although he has had two starts over this trip before I certainly think it is far too early to discount him over this trip yet. Firstly, he raced on the wrong side at last years meeting and his last start he shaped as if he would need the run so I am certainly willing to forgive him those efforts. Moreover, his win at York and his 2nd at Goodwood suggested he would relish this extra furlong so I definitely see it as a positive. He races here off a mark of 95 and given his excellent 2nd at Goodwood and his progressive profile as a 3 year old I definitely think his current mark is within his sphere of ability. I think its very it is very positive that Paul Hanagan takes over in the saddle again given his praise for this animal on his last start and the pair have a good record when teaming up together. The draw in stall 16 should be ideal as it gives him a middle sit which seemed to be the place to be today and if there is a bias on either side it should allow Hanagan to go to whichever side he feels suits best. With the good ground looking ideal, I am very confident of a big showing from this unexposed 4 year old and although its a 28 runner field which should take some winning I've had a sizeable e/w bet in the hope Common Touch can do just that.

Goldcupfav

Horse i fancy is Barefoot Lady in the 3.05. All her best form is on straight courses or courses with at least a 4f + straight finish. First run on the Ascot straight course today and i think shes a decent e/w bet at 25/1.
Also backing Planteur ran a cracker in France the last day behind two top class animals over a trip that would be to short for him plus they didnt go much of a pace that day early on. With the longer trip and stronger pace today i can see him being right in the mix. 10/1 now think its a cracking e/w bet.

UrbanSea

Have looked at zero racing in the last few weeks and these are speculative picks. I'd like Red Duke in the first if it weren't for his penalty, and Sentaril is a filly I like a lot, but I think Boomerang Bob each way at a big price is one to keep on side.


Falls of Lora needs to bounce back in the last but think she could be better than a 20/1 shot

Edit: the last is a handicap, wouldn't bother with a bet

Slattsy

Today I'll mostly be going for :

Aljamaaheer - form got a huge boost here yesterday

Emulous - love this horse and impressed me last time out

Reliable Man - Each way, I reckon So You Think is vulnerable again.

Edinburgh Knight - backed him last time out when he travelled well until weight and lack of fitness found him out. Great chance today.

Mironica - Form working out well, any Wachman horse that wins first time out tend to be decent and he's won this race before.

Last race nothing really tickles my fancy too much, but I'd take a speculative chance on Falls of Lora. Very inconsistent but if you disregard her last run she should be in the mix at the finish at a good price.

rossom

From Richard Fahey

"But out of my three the one that might have a couple of pounds in hand is Common Touch. Paul Hanagan rode him in work last weekend and he was delighted with him, so he chose to ride him here.

He's just come to himself in the last couple of weeks so we're hoping for a good run from him."

mike65

Todays random 6

ROYAL ASCOT 14:30 JERSEY STAKES (GROUP 3) 7f
Aljamaaheer @ 6.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 15:05 WINDSOR FOREST STAKES 1m
Nahrain @ 5.00 (GP)


ROYAL ASCOT 15:45 PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES 1m 2f
Carlton House @ 4.33 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 16:25 ROYAL HUNT CUP 1m
Prince Of Johanne @ 15.00 (GP)


ROYAL ASCOT 17:00 QUEEN MARY STAKES 5f
Jadanna @ 13.00 (GP)

ROYAL ASCOT 17:35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP 1m
Electrelane @ 8.00 (GP)

meriwether

A 40/1 NAP?

Outstanding sir, no fence sitting there with a 8/11 NAP of the day!

rossom

I know I put Royal Ascot in the thread but don't see the reason of starting another thread for one selection

4.10 Hamilton

Miami Gator 25/1

On his last start he was a small bit disappointing but it still wasn't a bad effort as he was only beaten by 6.5L and he was slightly squeezed up at one stage. The handicapper has been rather kind in my opinion dropping him to a mark of 77 and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark in the Carlisle Bell last year. Although away from his beloved Carlisle, he has 1 win from two starts at Hamilton so he clearly goes well enough around here as well. Talented claimer Conor Harrison takes the ride today for the first time and takes a very handy 7lb off Miami Gator's back which should definitely help. Harrison has 1 win from 5 rides for Burke and with his trainer in good form I am expecting a bold front running showing today and hopefully Miami Gator can get back to winning ways in fine style today at a price that vastly overstates his chances.

rossom wrote: »

14/1 looks an absolutely huge price for Elaine Burke's 5 year old as he returns to the Carlisle course where he absolutely loves it and holds a tremendous record. In his 5 previous visits to this C+D, he boasts a tremendous record of 3 victories, a short head beaten 2nd and a 1L beaten 4th so its absolutely clear that he flourishes over the mile trip at the course. He's going to have to bounce back from a few poor runs but he had a similar enough profile last year so I definitely feel he's going to bounce back to form in a massive way and I envisage a much better performance tomorrow from this gritty, gritty battler.

Last year, Miami Gator started off his 4 year old campaign on the back of a busy winter and on his first start of 2011 he put up an excellent effort at Lingfield over 1m last January when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd off a mark of 79. After attempting to make all, Miami Gator was collared in the final strides by two rivals as he ended up being beaten by only 1L. The form of that race looks very solid with the winner running well off 4lb higher marks subsequently, the 2nd Ocean Legend won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts afterwards and the 4th Wilfred Pickles won 2 of his subsequent 3 starts. After running only ok in a couple of claimers over in France, Miami Gator ran a cracking race when finishing a 1L beaten 4th at the course last May off a mark of 78. After adopting his typical front running style, he was clear of the pursuers until about the final half furlong where 3 of his rivals swamped him at the finish and went past. It was a very solid effort, and Miami Gator would have his revenge a month later.

Towards the end of June, Miami Gator took on two of the three rivals who had beaten him the month prior off the same mark of 78 but he turned the tables with them as he landed the Class 4 event in fine style when scoring by 1.75L. In traditional front running fashion, he was joined and indeed headed by the eventual second Vito Volterra with about 2f to go but he battled back gamely to get on top of that rival to land the race impressively. The form of that race couldn't be any stronger and if reproducing this effort he could be incredibly difficult to beat. The 2nd and 3rd both won on their next starts off the same mark whilst the 3rd Take it to the Max is now 16lb higher than he was that day so its clear he beat some in form rivals impressively that day. After being raised 8lb for this win, he put in an ok effort at York before getting back on the winning track when landing a claimer at Sandown last July. Although he was worse off at the weights with the 2nd and 3rd, its hard to evaluate that form and I think its best not to look into it too much, although the handicapper did raise him to a mark of 89 after that effort.

Miami Gator's final start as a 4 year old came last September where he was pretty disappointing at Ayr. After taking the winter off, Miami Gator has had 3 starts this year including two over in France in claimers. To be honest he hasn't looked that well this year which is an obvious concern but considering he hadn't had more than a 2 month break since beginning his career in 2009 I think he will have needed these 3 runs to get him back up to peak fitness. Moreover, he's now fallen to what appears a very attractive handicap mark of 80 and he's just 2lb above his last winning mark in a race that has worked out very well over C+D and I definitely think he's well handicapped. Although Michael Metcalfe takes a handy 3lb off his back which should help offset the burden of carrying top weight, I don't really know too much about him and given that Miami Gator is a horse that needs to be scrubbed along for quite a way I would definitely have preferred regular jockey Andrew Elliot to be on. However, its only a small concern for me. With Elaine Burke in pretty decent form at present, I think the return to Carlisle is a big indicator of how Miami Gator is going at home considering he loves it here so much. His draw in stall 1 should allow him to make all as he likes to do and for a horse that has never been beaten by more than 1L at the track in 5 visit I think 14/1 vastly overstates his chances, especially given he is only 2lb above his last win at the track. I'm very confident of a very big run from Miami Gator and think he could be extremely difficult to beat tomorrow.

Overthelast

Roger varians horses in the first two races for me today.

MoscowFlyer

Eastern Sun is of some interest to me in the 1st race here. Few quid E/W

66/1

3ndahalfof6

4:25 very big field so a chance to get a good price on a horse which would not normally be so big?

BOOM AND BUST around 20s

STEVIE THUNDER around 50s

kryogen

So You Think did the business, but how impressive was farhh?

Huge step up in class, good race today and he was flying at the end to finish half a length behind Carlton House, went from last to there inside the final furlong.

One to watch for sure.

3 lengths behind So You Think

Melion

kryogen wrote: »

So You Think did the business, but how impressive was farhh?

Huge step up in class, good race today and he was flying at the end to finish half a length behind Carlton House, went from last to there inside the final furlong.

One to watch for sure.

3 lengths behind So You Think

A bit more luck in running and he would have picked off Carlton House

kryogen

Melion wrote: »

A bit more luck in running and he would have picked off Carlton House

I thought so too, was majorly impressed by the run, don't expect to hear much about it today from commentators or anything, but the step up in class they took with him caught my eye so I was keeping an eye on him.

Very rare to see a horse go from a handicap to group 1 and be well supported in the market and actually finish the race so well!

You would think he had to run 30pound better then anything he would have run before! his 4th run for Godolphin and a horse I will be taking a keen interest in next time out.

Edit: He had an awful start too! reared up and fell out of the stall, would have been unteresting to see how the race would have panned out if he had gotten out properly

hawkhead

rossom wrote: »

I know I put Royal Ascot in the thread but don't see the reason of starting another thread for one selection

4.10 Hamilton

Miami Gator 25/1

On his last start he was a small bit disappointing but it still wasn't a bad effort as he was only beaten by 6.5L and he was slightly squeezed up at one stage. The handicapper has been rather kind in my opinion dropping him to a mark of 77 and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark in the Carlisle Bell last year. Although away from his beloved Carlisle, he has 1 win from two starts at Hamilton so he clearly goes well enough around here as well. Talented claimer Conor Harrison takes the ride today for the first time and takes a very handy 7lb off Miami Gator's back which should definitely help. Harrison has 1 win from 5 rides for Burke and with his trainer in good form I am expecting a bold front running showing today and hopefully Miami Gator can get back to winning ways in fine style today at a price that vastly overstates his chances.

Can I just say.

ROSSOM YOU LITTLE BEAUTY MATE

trinib

hawkhead wrote: »

Can I just say.

ROSSOM YOU LITTLE BEAUTY MATE

+1 great stuff

3ndahalfof6

sweet ROSSOM.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

I know I put Royal Ascot in the thread but don't see the reason of starting another thread for one selection

4.10 Hamilton

Miami Gator 25/1

On his last start he was a small bit disappointing but it still wasn't a bad effort as he was only beaten by 6.5L and he was slightly squeezed up at one stage. The handicapper has been rather kind in my opinion dropping him to a mark of 77 and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark in the Carlisle Bell last year. Although away from his beloved Carlisle, he has 1 win from two starts at Hamilton so he clearly goes well enough around here as well. Talented claimer Conor Harrison takes the ride today for the first time and takes a very handy 7lb off Miami Gator's back which should definitely help. Harrison has 1 win from 5 rides for Burke and with his trainer in good form I am expecting a bold front running showing today and hopefully Miami Gator can get back to winning ways in fine style today at a price that vastly overstates his chances.

Lovely stuff. Cracking ride by young Conor Harrison. Made all and never looked like getting headed.

Glad a few of you were on

In terms of Common Touch, it would have been interesting to see how close he would have gotten if he hadn't been squeezed out of it. I don't think he would have gotten near the winner but he was definitely getting closer at the time of the incident.

davehey79

Thanks rossom had a little 5er e/w on gator you made my day

newuser89

I backed ceiling kitty when it was 4 th at Beverly and haven't touched it since but always kept an eye on it
Sick that I missed out on it today

rossom

‎2 more bets for tonight. Not bothered with write ups and I wouldn't go nuts on either.

7.40 Kempton Sole Danser 33/1
9.20 Ripon Come Here Yew 14/1

rossom

Balls on the line tomorrow. Saddlers Rock to absolutely destroy F&G. Huge ask tomorrow but I think this horse is a machine and I'm going in very large e/w (cannot see him out of top 3). If I'm wrong I'll be the first to put my hands ups but I think he's going to bury F&G

MoscowFlyer

Come Here Yew is a Declan Carroll trained horse. Expecting it to go well.

ft9

rossom wrote: »

Balls on the line tomorrow. Saddlers Rock to absolutely destroy F&G. Huge ask tomorrow but I think this horse is a machine and I'm going in very large e/w (cannot see him out of top 3). If I'm wrong I'll be the first to put my hands ups but I think he's going to bury F&G

Love how bullish you are about Saddlers. Hope he can do it for you.

MoscowFlyer

Probably a dumb question but why is Joseph not on Fame and Glory tomorrow?

tryfix

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Probably a dumb question but why is Joseph not on Fame and Glory tomorrow?

Spencer rides for one of the owners, the Hay family. It was the same with Cape Blanco. I'm surprised that Fame and Glory isn't carrying the Hays colours, I'm fairly sure he did last year.

Edit : He carried the Smith colours in the Gold Cup last year and the Hay colours in the Long distance Cup later in the year. They seem to swap the colours around.

tryfix

rossom wrote: »

Balls on the line tomorrow. Saddlers Rock to absolutely destroy F&G. Huge ask tomorrow but I think this horse is a machine and I'm going in very large e/w (cannot see him out of top 3). If I'm wrong I'll be the first to put my hands ups but I think he's going to bury F&G

We'll see . Good luck with the bet. I don't mind who wins, I only fancy F&G and he's a bit too short in price.

Dcuguy89

Had a ****ing dire day not helped by trying to make it up at wexford...

Te Gold Cup will have to save me

Pale Horse

Thanks for this Rossom. This made up for an otherwise dismal 2 days on Ascot

rossom wrote: »

I know I put Royal Ascot in the thread but don't see the reason of starting another thread for one selection

4.10 Hamilton

Miami Gator 25/1

On his last start he was a small bit disappointing but it still wasn't a bad effort as he was only beaten by 6.5L and he was slightly squeezed up at one stage. The handicapper has been rather kind in my opinion dropping him to a mark of 77 and he is now 1lb below his last winning mark in the Carlisle Bell last year. Although away from his beloved Carlisle, he has 1 win from two starts at Hamilton so he clearly goes well enough around here as well. Talented claimer Conor Harrison takes the ride today for the first time and takes a very handy 7lb off Miami Gator's back which should definitely help. Harrison has 1 win from 5 rides for Burke and with his trainer in good form I am expecting a bold front running showing today and hopefully Miami Gator can get back to winning ways in fine style today at a price that vastly overstates his chances.

the groutch

signed up just to say that?
not suspicious at all :rolleyes:

Pale Horse

the groutch wrote: »

signed up just to say that?
not suspicious at all :rolleyes:

What do you mean? I have just started viewing this forum of late and wanted to sign up and what better way than to thank someone for a nice tip. Take off your tinfoil hat!

rossom

the groutch wrote: »

signed up just to say that?
not suspicious at all :rolleyes:

Do you really think I'm that ****ing sad? I don't ****ing look for the adoration of the masses or make huge fusses about winners by typing booooooom like so many others I have come across