Greek Exit Poll expected at 5pm (official) RESULT...

RobitTV

So the Greek exit poll will be released at 5pm, any prediction for this very important election?

My prediction is Syriza may be at heads with New democracy party.

RobitTV

RESULT -

Syriza - 27-30%
New Democracy - 27.5-30.5%

Agent Smith

This is going to end well...

Eggy Baby!

RobitTV wrote: »

RESULT -

Syriza - 27-30%
New Democracy - 27.5-30.5%

What are the ideologies of those two parties? How did Golden Dawn do or are they running?

RobitTV

First exit polls from Greek state TV show it is neck and neck. With 75pc of polling stations accounted for, New Democracy is forecast to win between 27.5pc and 30.5pc, and Syriza 27pc to 30pc. In other words, this a cliffhanger that could drag into the wee hours.

Pasok is third with between 10pc and 12pc, the neo-fascist Golden Dawn will definitely sit in parliament for the first time with 6pc-7.5pc. Democratic Left of Fotis Kouvelis is on 5.5pc-6.5pc and the Communist Party vote has sunk even further to 5pc-6pc.

Pedant

New Democracy will probably win by a very very small percentile.

Pedant

Out of interest, might there be a possibility that Syriza could go into coalition with some other party, like KKE or Pasok?

Benny_Cake

Pedant wrote: »

Out of interest, might there be a possibility that Syriza could go into coalition with some other party, like KKE or Pasok?

KKE have repeatedly said that they will not go into government with Syrza, or anyone else for that matter - the two parties are opposed on a number of key issues, as well as quite different culturally (SYRIZA is effectively a coalition between a variety of left wing and green groups, whereas the KKE is still committed to old-style Stalinism). PASOK is an outside possibility, although they would much prefer to go in with New Democracy - there are now very few differences between those two parties.

christmas2012

i hear the leftist party are making huge strides and might win according to irish news..

Pedant

christmas2012 wrote: »

i hear the leftist party are making huge strides and might win according to irish news..

Syriza has certainly made massive progress, but I'm not sure they'll win this time. The latest is that there's about 0.5% between the ND and Syriza.

Pedant

New Democracy: 28.6% to 30%

Syriza: 27.5% to 28.4%

Pasok: 11% to 12.4%

Source: Sky News

cristoir

Should ND take the bonus seat reward on these numbers theer should be just enough support for a pro-austerity government. But it is going to be as tight as hell. If Syriza take the bonus it's back to the drawing board regarding possible coalitions. Because no matter what Syriza won't be able to govern alone and very few want to govern with them.

Pedant

cristoir

It would appear, based on very early numbers, that Golden Dawn has either equaled or improved on their May result. Shocking stuff.

Pride Fighter

Bad news for the Greeks. They must have collective amnesia voting back in the crooks who wrecked their economy. It's like us voting for Fianna Fail again. Very disappointing numbers. Was hoping Syriza would win.

RandomName2

Eggy Baby! wrote: »

What are the ideologies of those two parties? How did Golden Dawn do or are they running?

Golden Dawn is at about 7%.

Personally I see it as no bad thing a fascist party getting seats. No worse than a communist party anyway. It opens the area up to potentially greater free speech and self-examination through the combating of extant ideas. Not that a communist or fascist government would be a good thing - no.. anything but.

Hopefully New Democracy will win. This will likely have the least harmful effect on Ireland.

cristoir

Pride Fighter wrote: »

Bad news for the Greeks. They must have collective amnesia voting back in the crooks who wrecked their economy. It's like us voting for Fianna Fail again. Very disappointing numbers. Was hoping Syriza would win.

Voting for Syriza is like voting for a coalition of the ULA, Sinn Fein, the Workers party combined with some Marxist-Leninists, Euro-communists, workers action groups and even some Maoists.

How do you think that work out?

And in case you think I am exaggerating the various ideologies in Syriza here is the full list of the members of Syriza:

Active Citizens (Ενεργοί Πολίτες): democratic socialism, patriotism
Anticapitalist Political Group (ΑΠΟ): communism, trotskyism
Communist Organization of Greece (KOE): maoism, communism
Democratic Social Movement (DIKKI): left-wing nationalism, socialism, euroscepticism
Ecosocialists of Greece: eco-socialism, left ecology
Internationalist Workers' Left (DEA): revolutionary socialism, communism, trotskyism
Movement for the United in Action Left (KEDA): communism
Radical Left Group Roza
Radicals (Ριζοσπάστες): democratic socialism, patriotism
Red (Κόκκινο): communism, trotskyism
Renewing Communist Ecological Left (AKOA): democratic socialism, eurocommunism, green politics
Synaspismós (SYN): democratic socialism, eco-socialism, eurocommunism, environmentalism, feminism
Unitary Movement: democratic socialism, social democracy

Pride Fighter

cristoir wrote: »

Voting for Syriza is like voting for a coalition of the ULA, Sinn Fein, the Workers party combined with some Marxist-Leninists, Euro-communists, workers action groups and even some Maoists.

How do you think that work out?

And in case you think I am exaggerating the various ideologies in Syriza here is the full list of the members of Syriza:

Active Citizens (Ενεργοί Πολίτες): democratic socialism, patriotism
Anticapitalist Political Group (ΑΠΟ): communism, trotskyism
Communist Organization of Greece (KOE): maoism, communism
Democratic Social Movement (DIKKI): left-wing nationalism, socialism, euroscepticism
Ecosocialists of Greece: eco-socialism, left ecology
Internationalist Workers' Left (DEA): revolutionary socialism, communism, trotskyism
Movement for the United in Action Left (KEDA): communism
Radical Left Group Roza
Radicals (Ριζοσπάστες): democratic socialism, patriotism
Red (Κόκκινο): communism, trotskyism
Renewing Communist Ecological Left (AKOA): democratic socialism, eurocommunism, green politics
Synaspismós (SYN): democratic socialism, eco-socialism, eurocommunism, environmentalism, feminism
Unitary Movement: democratic socialism, social democracy

All better than the incompetence and corruption Fianna Fail done here and New Democracy did in Greece.

Pedant

It's thought that New Democracy's lead so far could be because votes from the mainly conservative rural regions of Greece are being counted earlier than the more liberal/leftist urban regions like Athens. Syriza may rise yet.

cristoir

Pride Fighter wrote: »

All better than the incompetence and corruption Fianna Fail done here and New Democracy did in Greece.

Don't get me wrong I am no fan of either but you have to be pragmatic. Syriza would lead Greece out of the single currency, Greece would acquire a new currency which would have to be devalued, capital controls would be put in place, peoples savings would be made worthless by hyper inflation, foreign energy company's wouldn't except the new Dracma till in leveled out and by the time it leveled out the exchange rate would make foreign energy cripplingly expensive.

Then there is the obvious question where does Greece get funding?

The throw the F8ckers out attitude is great till you realize what is going to replace them is far far worse.

cristoir

Confirmed result on sky:

ND: 128
Syriza: 72
Pasok: 33

ND and Pasok will now likely form coalition. Disaster averted folks :P

Pride Fighter

cristoir wrote: »

Confirmed result on sky:

ND: 128
Syriza: 72
Pasok: 33

ND and Pasok will now likely form coalition. Disaster averted folks :P

ND and Pasok would have a solid 22 seat majority on those numbers.

cristoir

Full projected results:

ND: 128
Syriza: 72
Pasok: 33
Independent Greeks: 20
Golden Dawn: 18
Democratic left: 17
Communists: 12

By the looks of things all parties except the two biggest have lost seats. Golden Dawn seems to have made a very small loss. IG, Pasok and the Communists have taken large losses.

Corkfeen

cristoir wrote: »

Full projected results:

ND: 128
Syriza: 72
Pasok: 33
Independent Greeks: 20
Golden Dawn: 18
Democratic left: 17
Communists: 12

One worry that I have about ND is if they will have the guts to make the changes that the people don't want.

Cannibal Ox

Even if New Democracy get into government, they're still screwed. It's of absolutely no use to anybody to have a government trying to implement policies when a substantial proportion of the population is openly resisting them. This has been going on for years in Greece now, it hasn't worked and it isn't going to get any better just because Syriza don't form a government.

LostinKildare

Reportedly Pasok have said they won't participate in a govt without Syriza in it.

cristoir

LostinKildare wrote: »

Reportedly Pasok have said they won't participate in a govt without Syriza in it.

Smoke and mirrors. They will demand negotiated talks for a national government even though they know Syriza would never in that kind of government. So when Syriza walk away from negotiations, Pasok can say "well we tried" and then form a coalition of some kind with ND.

Pasok may support an ND minority government.

Inquitus

It least it proves when push comes to shove an electorate can have some common sense and avert disaster for their nation, even if it will be a painful road to recovery.

Benny_Cake

Pride Fighter wrote: »

cristoir wrote: »

Confirmed result on sky:

ND: 128
Syriza: 72
Pasok: 33

ND and Pasok will now likely form coalition. Disaster averted folks :P

ND and Pasok would have a solid 22 seat majority on those numbers.

It's questionable how long such a government would last, as further austerity is implemented MP's will start defecting - that was what happened in the last parliament. There is also the mutual hatred that exists between ND and PASOK, which is largely down to personalities rather than policy differences.

Benny_Cake

Inquitus wrote: »

It least it proves when push comes to shove an electorate can have some common sense and avert disaster for their nation, even if it will be a painful road to recovery.

It has less to do with the electorate showing "common sense" and more to do with the bizarre 50 seat bonus given to the front-runner. I would imagine terror of things getting worse would have played a role too, I would have probably backed SYRIZA but I can understand why people might have been afraid to, I don't think their promise to stay in the Euro was particularly credible either.

Kinski

The most remarkable thing about watching the situation in Greece unfold is discovering just how many experts on Greek electoral politics have been hiding out here on Boards.ie, who remained completely silent on Greece, right up until the time when it became headline news across the world.

Oafley Jones

The reaction from Syriza seems to have a good measure of relief. I'm not surprised given their promises - although they had been pulling back on the rhetoric over the past few days.

Manco

Now for the Greek center to collapse as it takes the hit for the continuing economic failure of austerity and the inevitable Greek exit from the Eurozone.

Also, here's a good site. The working class/rural divide seems to echo our recent referendum, which I guess makes Crete the Greece of Donegal! http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/06/elections2012b

meglome

Manco wrote: »

Now for the Greek center to collapse as it takes the hit for the continuing economic failure of austerity and the inevitable Greek exit from the Eurozone.

Also, here's a good site. The working class/rural divide seems to echo our recent referendum, which I guess makes Crete the Greece of Donegal! http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/06/elections2012b

Unless I'm mistaken there were only three constituencies in Ireland that recorded a no majority. And Donegal can be guaranteed to vote no to anything the government wants at this point. So not really seeing the correlation.

LostinKildare

Pride Fighter wrote: »

ND and Pasok would have a solid 22 seat majority on those numbers.

I think it's 151 that's required to form a govt -- if those projected numbers hold, then ND and Pasok together squeak in at 161.

Too weak to implement more austerity, especially with a now very strong Syriza leading the opposition. If they do form a ND/Pasok govt, how long do you think it'll last?

OS119

LostinKildare wrote: »

...If they do form a ND/Pasok govt, how long do you think it'll last?

the German foreign minister is apparrently making noises about fiddling with the terms of the bailout to make life a bit easier for whatever Greek government emerges from this election - though i also understood that he'd suggested putting back the next tranche of money to ensure that the money was only paid once a government was in place, rather than paying now, only to find that no government came to power - or that despite ND coming first, they weren't able to form a viable coalition and SYRIZA helpfully stepping into the breech...

its not over - and SYRIZA doing so well shows the non-SYRIZA politicians that theres votes to be won by being delusional.

hatrickpatrick

This is depressing, but not entirely unexpected. Fear is an incredibly powerful emotion.

Eggy Baby!

Personally I see it as no bad thing a fascist party getting seats. No worse than a communist party anyway. It opens the area up to potentially greater free speech and self-examination through the combating of extant ideas. Not that a communist or fascist government would be a good thing - no.. anything but.

Not to mention it gives the politicians one hell of a wake up call!